Author Topic: World reaction to the rise of SpaceX  (Read 38239 times)

Offline su27k

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World reaction to the rise of SpaceX
« on: 09/28/2021 10:58 am »
Not sure where to put this, so creating a new thread for now:

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1442531664979238912

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Here's the head of France's Space Command, Maj. Gen. Michel Friedling, on @SpaceX and Elon Musk during a Sept 22 parliamentary hearing: @Armee_de_lair @DGA.

Online wannamoonbase

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Re: World reaction to the rise of SpaceX
« Reply #1 on: 09/28/2021 04:31 pm »
I think other launch providers recognize SpaceX’s advantage now.  Clearly

The problem almost all other providers have is that they are political entities geared for job creation and national prestige.  Not economics. 

Also the global launch market is in the low billions per year, when combined. 

So if you come up with a launch option cheaper than SpaceX that market value decreases.  So you’d spend billions to make less billions. 

Reuseable rockets and Starlink are symbiotic, they need each other. F9 gets to fly more to keep its prices down and Starlink gets a cheaper ride to make it economically viable. 

I don’t see anyone challenging SpaceX for at least a decade, and that’s if they started today.

I look forward to some of the expensive legacy launches going away and being replaced by reuseable cheaper boosters.  Bye bye Proton and Soyuz
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline libra

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Re: World reaction to the rise of SpaceX
« Reply #2 on: 09/28/2021 05:28 pm »
Mush cash cows are indeed feeding each others, and they also feed the Mars project.
Musk own fortune
+Tesla: cash cow
+Starlink: cash cow
+SpaceX F9 ongoing contracts: cash cows

Hundred of billions. Dawrf NASA or ESA budget by factor of ten to hundred.
 

Offline AC in NC

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Re: World reaction to the rise of SpaceX
« Reply #3 on: 09/28/2021 06:41 pm »
Mush cash cows are indeed feeding each others, and they also feed the Mars project.
Musk own fortune
+Tesla: cash cow
+Starlink: cash cow
+SpaceX F9 ongoing contracts: cash cows

Hundred of billions. Dawrf NASA or ESA budget by factor of ten to hundred.

You aren't exactly wrong in your 1st sentence but you've so dramatically overstated the case that it needs to be called out.

Nothing here is going to 10x, much less 100x, NASA budgets for a long, long time (what year do we see Starlink reaching 200M subscribers).

1)  Tesla isn't a cash-cow, it's an equity cow but that Equity Cow was already accounted for in "Musk Fortune". 
2)  F9 doesn't have the manifest to be a true cash-cow
3)  Starlink has the potential but the cash stream will always have the incremental R&D spend drag

Offline Yggdrasill

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Re: World reaction to the rise of SpaceX
« Reply #4 on: 09/29/2021 04:46 am »
So if you come up with a launch option cheaper than SpaceX that market value decreases.  So you’d spend billions to make less billions.
That's not quite how that works, though. Lower prices generally means higher demand. So it's entirely possible to cut prices and have revenue and profits increase.

Online Comga

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Re: World reaction to the rise of SpaceX
« Reply #5 on: 09/29/2021 05:08 am »
The OP is a great quote by a “world space leader”.
It’s great to read.
But can we keep our own opinions to the myriad other, more appropriate threads, and let this thread stick to it’s title about “World Reaction”?
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline markbike528cbx

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Re: World reaction to the rise of SpaceX
« Reply #6 on: 09/29/2021 05:51 am »
I hate to break it to you but the "World reaction" is SpaceX who?  Elon Who?

I have yet to meet any new people aware of Inspiration 4. 
Even a nurse about the same age as Haley had a blank reactions.

Offline tyrred

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Re: World reaction to the rise of SpaceX
« Reply #7 on: 09/29/2021 07:59 am »
I hate to break it to you but the "World reaction" is SpaceX who?  Elon Who?

I have yet to meet any new people aware of Inspiration 4. 
Even a nurse about the same age as Haley had a blank reactions.

Oh to be the one who decides what the world's reaction is.

Offline markbike528cbx

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Re: World reaction to the rise of SpaceX
« Reply #8 on: 09/29/2021 02:39 pm »
I hate to break it to you but the "World reaction" is SpaceX who?  Elon Who?

I have yet to meet any new people aware of Inspiration 4. 
Even a nurse about the same age as Haley had a blank reactions.

Oh to be the one who decides what the world's reaction is.
Yes, yes it is :-)
Isn't that what the Internet is for?
Well, besides cat videos.  And per another thread, cute caribou videos.

Offline Desto

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Re: World reaction to the rise of SpaceX
« Reply #9 on: 09/30/2021 05:34 am »
I hate to break it to you but the "World reaction" is SpaceX who?  Elon Who?

I have yet to meet any new people aware of Inspiration 4. 
Even a nurse about the same age as Haley had a blank reactions.

Yup. I've got to say, vast majority of people don't even know what SpaceX is.

Offline Aussie_Space_Nut

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Re: World reaction to the rise of SpaceX
« Reply #10 on: 09/30/2021 10:53 am »
This is from the ABC, short for Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
« Last Edit: 09/30/2021 11:28 am by Aussie_Space_Nut »

Online catdlr

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Re: World reaction to the rise of SpaceX
« Reply #11 on: 09/30/2021 10:59 am »
IN THEIR OWN WORDS|

PBS
Elon Musk
Season 2 Episode 5 | 51m 16s

Elon Musk was a multi-millionaire by the time he reached the age of 31. He is one of a new breed of what the New York Times called "trillionaires," high-tech entrepreneurs who are using their newfound wealth to help turn science-fiction dreams into reality. His story is about a thrilling 21st century "Iron Man" come alive.

Airing: 10/13/21

Expires: 10/27/21

Rating: NR

PBS Show Viewer Website:
https://www.pbs.org/video/elon-musk-4r4s3a/

Trailer:
« Last Edit: 09/30/2021 11:02 am by catdlr »
Tony De La Rosa, ...I'm no Feline Dealer!! I move mountains.  but I'm better known for "I think it's highly sexual." Japanese to English Translation.

Offline zodiacchris

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Re: World reaction to the rise of SpaceX
« Reply #12 on: 09/30/2021 11:50 am »
Worse, most people I talk to really dislike Elon Musk, say he‘s building Electric cars for the rich, that he’s destroying the planet because the batteries can’t be recyled and lithium mining is evil, that building an electric car takes more energy than an ICE car uses over its lifecyle. All completely wrong but seemingly ingrained in public opinion. SpaceX doesn’t even come up and if it does it’s the old „should be spending the money down here to help the poor“ fallacy.

Even my father insists that electric cars won’t work and I‘ve been driving Teslas for 4 years now…🙄

On the plus side there was a half hour feature on Starship and Inspiration 4 on Australian television tonight which was really positive, so maybe there is hope…

Offline woods170

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Re: World reaction to the rise of SpaceX
« Reply #13 on: 09/30/2021 12:58 pm »
Even my father insists that electric cars won’t work...

Same for one of my brothers, despite the fact that in the street where he lives, multiple people have been driving Tesla's for years now.
It has caused quite a few heated debates between me and him.
« Last Edit: 09/30/2021 12:59 pm by woods170 »

Offline spacenut

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Re: World reaction to the rise of SpaceX
« Reply #14 on: 09/30/2021 01:49 pm »
Part of the negative reaction to Elon Musk is based on lies. 

First, people who shorted Tesla stock and lost a lot of money, have written negative reviews of Tesla.   

Then there is a negative reaction to billionaires in general, thinking they have loads of cash sitting around in some bank that they could use the money to help the poor.  Even though their money is tied up in their factories, workers payrolls, and they have very little actual cash.  This is because "socialism" is being fostered in our education system, even though most don't even know what true socialism is. 

Then most people think the government is paying and subsidizing SpaceX, even though they are not.  SpaceX has to win bids.  Very little money was actually "subsidized" money, and ULA, Blue, NG, and others got more money than SpaceX. 

Then a lot of people think NASA spends trillions of dollars on space that could be used elsewhere when it is only less than 1% of the US budget. 

Kids just aren't being educated.

We recently bought a new car.  I wanted a Tesla, but my wife was worried about charging on long distance road trips.  I told her of a recent test, I think by Popular Mechanics.  A gasoline car, a Tesla, and a Ford Mustang E, were sent on the same 1,000 mile trip.  The gasoline car made it in about 18.5 hours.  Tesla made it in about 20 hours, while the Mustang took 28 hours.  The Tesla charging stations helped Tesla almost match the gasoline car, while the Mustang had a problem charging and finding a place to charge.  Tesla may take a little time charging, but long distance time isn't that much more than gasoline.  Stuff like this needs to be put in the news.   

Offline Slarty1080

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Re: World reaction to the rise of SpaceX
« Reply #15 on: 09/30/2021 01:53 pm »
Unfortunately there are many powerful enemies such as the big oil as well as traditional car and aerospace companies that have a lot to lose from the likes of SpaceX and Tesla who lobby politicians and distribute large amounts of Fear Uncertainty and Doubt in all directions. Musk doesn’t always help himself either with some of his tweets about pedos and taking Tesla private.

Despite the fantastic achievements so far (which most of the public are unaware of or indifferent to) it’s still going to be an uphill struggle against vested interests. And when Starship really does start to make a lot of spectacular headlines with DearMoon and lunar landings it will be sure to attract a lot of attention of all sorts, some of it hostile.

At a thousand tonnes of CO2 per full stack launch it won’t be long before the prospect of multiple daily flights starts to arouse environmental groups. Tesla is a big bonus in this respect but SpaceX could do with some additional green credentials to help the situation. Perhaps a CO2 to CH4 plant powered by solar (and yes I know the thermodynamic arguments let’s not dive down that rabbit hole) it wouldn’t do any harm to have such a plant working from a PR perspective and it might even be of use in developing the technology required on Mars.

Although nothing is guaranteed I am very hopeful that the Mars program at least the early exploration part will happen in the next 10-20 years. SpaceX does seem to have something different going for them and it has been wildly successful. They have been super smart with rocket engineering, but they also need to become super smart with PR and politics.
My optimistic hope is that it will become cool to really think about things... rather than just doing reactive bullsh*t based on no knowledge (Brian Cox)

Offline Welsh Dragon

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Re: World reaction to the rise of SpaceX
« Reply #16 on: 09/30/2021 04:37 pm »
The actual response if you asked most of the world about SpaceX? "Space who? What are you going on about?"

Offline Slarty1080

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Re: World reaction to the rise of SpaceX
« Reply #17 on: 09/30/2021 04:57 pm »
The actual response if you asked most of the world about SpaceX? "Space who? What are you going on about?"
For sure at the moment, although that will slowly change. By the time the first human steps foot on Mars I imagine the majority of people will at least know that SpaceX makes the Mars rocket. Although the response from more remote parts of the third world won't ever be that good.
My optimistic hope is that it will become cool to really think about things... rather than just doing reactive bullsh*t based on no knowledge (Brian Cox)

Online wannamoonbase

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Re: World reaction to the rise of SpaceX
« Reply #18 on: 09/30/2021 06:19 pm »
Even my father insists that electric cars won’t work...

Same for one of my brothers, despite the fact that in the street where he lives, multiple people have been driving Tesla's for years now.
It has caused quite a few heated debates between me and him.

I’m a mechanical engineer with 25 years experience.  I started my career with a bit of oil and gas but wasn’t interested in it.  I took till 2015 or so to see that electric cars had the trajectory to surpass ICE.  But for a few reasons, 1 being the reduced cost of ownership.  Electric cars are almost different enough to be considered a new mode of transportation. 

The over all system complexity of ICE to electric is at least an order of magnitude.  And the fossil fuel industrial complex is even more than a magnitude more complex than wind or PV solar.

Edit: So how does that rant connect to the worlds view of SpaceX?  I think only a small percentage of people understand what reuse means, what the potential of the Raptor and Starship is, or even the size of the F9, FH and Starship.  To many people a rocket is a rocket and they don't understand the cost or how much of it is thrown away.

It maybe like electric cars, that people don't understand then one day they're living in a world with people living on the moon and mars.
« Last Edit: 09/30/2021 06:33 pm by wannamoonbase »
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Online catdlr

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Re: World reaction to the rise of SpaceX
« Reply #19 on: 10/14/2021 03:22 am »
Here is a YouTube copy...

In Their Own Words: Elon Musk, PBS, September 29, 2021

Quote
On September 29, 2021, the Public Broadcasting System aired a one-hour documentary about SpaceX founder Elon Musk.  The documentary was originally posted on the WETA-TV Washington DC web site at:

https://weta.org/watch/shows/their-ow...

This version was recorded from WUCF-TV Orlando, Florida.

Former NASA Deputy Administrator Lori Garver is among those interviewed for the documentary.

Tony De La Rosa, ...I'm no Feline Dealer!! I move mountains.  but I'm better known for "I think it's highly sexual." Japanese to English Translation.

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