Author Topic: New Glenn Launch Manifest  (Read 102980 times)

Offline DrTadd

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #140 on: 01/17/2025 09:56 pm »
First day of summer 2025 is June 20th, iirc.

Given BO had what seemed two boosters in build (good images of two steering sections and two aft sections), and the first booster rolled out in November to the Launch hanger, how long do you think it will take before we see the second booster make the trip?

I’d also say that the team probably is pretty hungry to try again now that the first rocket had a clean launch.

I am going to guess BO will take a month to really sift thru the data and figure out what went wrong with the booster return. I’ve seen theories from unsettled fuel or ice to aliens  ;D.

Of course, no point in moving a new booster if it will need some hardware add ons (like fuel ice filters).

At this point only BO knows if the motors lit properly and were running well for the return from the engine data. I would guess that there was enough instrumented values they can sort the issue if it was the engines.


Offline tottaway22

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #141 on: 01/24/2025 12:56 pm »
Looks like Project Kuiper has shipped first Satellites to the Cape, not clear if for Blue Origin or ULA. Edit - in another post it appears they are set for ULA Atlas V, but also means they should be able to launch on BO this year.

"Here's a quick look at the progress at our production facility in Kirkland, Washington! Late last year, we began shipping flight-ready satellites, and even more have been on their way in recent weeks.

Once they arrive in Florida, these satellites go through final preparations: processing, integration with our dispenser system, encapsulation in a 5-meter Atlas V fairing, and transport to ULA's vertical integration facilities ahead of launch.

We’re thrilled to be one step closer to full-scale deployment and can’t wait to see these advanced satellites deliver fast, reliable connectivity to customers around the globe. 🌍"

"Excited to share a behind-the-scenes look at our satellites shipping out to Cape Canaveral, where they’ll be processed and integrated with our dispenser ahead of launch. From our Ka-band phased array antennas to our active propulsion systems and 100 Gbps laser links, we’re launching some of the most advanced communications satellites ever built, and we expect the extra invention will pay off for our customers. Lots of work still ahead, but we’re getting closer every day to the start of a full-scale deployment – credit to all the teams across Kuiper for helping deliver on the mission at hand."

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7288290692269776897/

https://www.linkedin.com/search/results/content/?datePosted=%22past-24h%22&keywords=project%20kuiper&origin=FACETED_SEARCH&sid=Jqa
« Last Edit: 01/24/2025 01:10 pm by tottaway22 »

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #142 on: 01/24/2025 02:53 pm »
Looks like Project Kuiper has shipped first Satellites to the Cape, not clear if for Blue Origin or ULA. Edit - in another post it appears they are set for ULA Atlas V, but also means they should be able to launch on BO this year.
That's a stretch. It means they can launch on Atlas V. It might mean they can easily also launch on Vulcan, since Vulcan and Atlas V have very similar payload interfaces, integration facilities, etc, and Kuiper has stated that the dispensers are similar. The dispenser for Vulcan is presumed to be taller to accomodate more satellites. It's not instantly clear that this commonality extends to NG. We also know that ULA has 8 Atlas V earmarked for Kuiper and more or less ready to go and planned to launch in 2025, and they intend to achieve a launch rate of 20/yr (Atlas V + Vulcan) by the end of 2025.

Online GewoonLukas_

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #143 on: 01/28/2025 04:03 pm »
Another Blue Ring Pathfinder is scheduled to launch this year. First operational Blue Ring mission will be next year:

Quote
Kicking off the “Expanding Launch Capacity for Assured Access To Space” panel, Lars Hoffman, VP, National Security Sales, @blueorigin touts first New Glenn launch and the Blue Ring Pathfinder payload on the NG-1 mission.

He says that they have another pathfinder mission in 2025 with the fully operational Blue Ring ready by the end of the year with its first operational mission in 2026.

He also notes that the suborbital New Shepard NS-29 mission is set to launch today as well from Texas.

https://twitter.com/SpaceflightNow/status/1884276211976921180
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Offline AndrewM

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #144 on: 02/25/2025 04:58 pm »
Another Blue Ring Pathfinder is scheduled to launch this year. First operational Blue Ring mission will be next year:

Quote
Kicking off the “Expanding Launch Capacity for Assured Access To Space” panel, Lars Hoffman, VP, National Security Sales, @blueorigin touts first New Glenn launch and the Blue Ring Pathfinder payload on the NG-1 mission.

He says that they have another pathfinder mission in 2025 with the fully operational Blue Ring ready by the end of the year with its first operational mission in 2026.

He also notes that the suborbital New Shepard NS-29 mission is set to launch today as well from Texas.

https://twitter.com/SpaceflightNow/status/1884276211976921180

Hmmm I wonder if it will launch on New Glenn again or go back to rideshare with a GPS launch as was initially planned for the 1st pathfinder. I guess they could potentially launch it with EscaPADE as well.

Offline trimeta

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #145 on: 02/25/2025 05:28 pm »
Another Blue Ring Pathfinder is scheduled to launch this year. First operational Blue Ring mission will be next year:

Quote
Kicking off the “Expanding Launch Capacity for Assured Access To Space” panel, Lars Hoffman, VP, National Security Sales, @blueorigin touts first New Glenn launch and the Blue Ring Pathfinder payload on the NG-1 mission.

He says that they have another pathfinder mission in 2025 with the fully operational Blue Ring ready by the end of the year with its first operational mission in 2026.

He also notes that the suborbital New Shepard NS-29 mission is set to launch today as well from Texas.

https://twitter.com/SpaceflightNow/status/1884276211976921180

Hmmm I wonder if it will launch on New Glenn again or go back to rideshare with a GPS launch as was initially planned for the 1st pathfinder. I guess they could potentially launch it with EscaPADE as well.

Is the second pathfinder supposed to deploy, or will it also remain attached to the upper stage? Because in the latter case, it can comanifest with any launch that's got excess payload capacity (and EscaPADE sounds like a reasonable guess).

Offline tottaway22

Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #146 on: 03/05/2025 12:59 pm »
AST SpaceMobile during their conference call last night stated that starting late 2025 they hope to launch with New Glenn every 45 days. Appears they are planning on 1-2 NG launches later this year and then 8-10 in 2026.

"With the New Glenn, we can launch up to eight satellites per launch, that pretty much double the cadence of what is possible with the Falcon 9 and we expect later in the year to start moving to a launch cadence of around one launch every 45 days on the New Glenn. We have other launches also that have been secured in advance to that."

Offline Vultur

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #147 on: 03/11/2025 01:59 pm »
Is the next launch supposed to be Blue Moon pathfinder in NET August, or is something else between now and then?

Online JCRM

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #148 on: 03/11/2025 03:29 pm »
Is the next launch supposed to be Blue Moon pathfinder in NET August, or is something else between now and then?

August might be "late spring" in Blue terminology?

Offline Vultur

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #149 on: 03/11/2025 05:14 pm »
Is the next launch supposed to be Blue Moon pathfinder in NET August, or is something else between now and then?

August might be "late spring" in Blue terminology?

That's what I was wondering ... Same launch now delayed to Aug, or two different launches?

January to August feels like a large gap.

Offline trimeta

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #150 on: 03/11/2025 07:04 pm »
Is the next launch supposed to be Blue Moon pathfinder in NET August, or is something else between now and then?

August might be "late spring" in Blue terminology?

That's what I was wondering ... Same launch now delayed to Aug, or two different launches?

January to August feels like a large gap.

Does it? For a new rocket from a company with no prior orbital heritage (and with a history of "step by step"), I thought having a second launch within 12 months of the first was optimistic.

Offline DrTadd

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #151 on: 03/11/2025 09:15 pm »

Does it? For a new rocket from a company with no prior orbital heritage (and with a history of "step by step"), I thought having a second launch within 12 months of the first was optimistic.

I could agree with you except for in the now old everyday astronaut video, it was quite clear that BO had two interstages and two engine modules built side by side. One got finished and was used in January. The other pair can’t be unfinished at this point. And those are the complicated bits.

I’d bet there are going to be two launches. Moon and escapade.

I think it was Limp who said the first three are R&D launches and they would fly whatever including a mass sim. So if that’s the case, then I can see trying for the moon….given you are flying anyways!
« Last Edit: 03/11/2025 09:20 pm by DrTadd »

Offline meekGee

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #152 on: 03/13/2025 04:19 pm »
Guys, for all rockets and all rocket vendors, the statements made by the payload vendors will always be optimistic because of the well documented "launch chicken" effect.

It's a little bit different in the opposite direction because if the payload is chronically late, the rocket people can always queue up the next payload.  Not so easy for the payload people to switch rockets if the rocket's late.
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Offline DrTadd

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #153 on: 03/13/2025 05:32 pm »
Guys, for all rockets and all rocket vendors, the statements made by the payload vendors will always be optimistic because of the well documented "launch chicken" effect.

It's a little bit different in the opposite direction because if the payload is chronically late, the rocket people can always queue up the next payload.  Not so easy for the payload people to switch rockets if the rocket's late.

But the moon shot is internal to BO. I would think then being vertically integrated, the next NG launch date is then wholly dictated by BO.

I am not 100% certain, but I do not think beyond ESCAPADE (cause BO offered cheap!) there was any other paying customer payload to go up on the first three 'test' rockets.

It is interesting that ULA can flip the script and change LVs to get another customer payload into orbit while Vulcan is dealing with the .mil review.

Offline meekGee

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #154 on: 03/13/2025 08:42 pm »
Guys, for all rockets and all rocket vendors, the statements made by the payload vendors will always be optimistic because of the well documented "launch chicken" effect.

It's a little bit different in the opposite direction because if the payload is chronically late, the rocket people can always queue up the next payload.  Not so easy for the payload people to switch rockets if the rocket's late.

But the moon shot is internal to BO. I would think then being vertically integrated, the next NG launch date is then wholly dictated by BO.

I am not 100% certain, but I do not think beyond ESCAPADE (cause BO offered cheap!) there was any other paying customer payload to go up on the first three 'test' rockets.

It is interesting that ULA can flip the script and change LVs to get another customer payload into orbit while Vulcan is dealing with the .mil review.
Different groups within the same org are equally prone to this... "Yes we'll be ready on time, boss"...

(In any org)
« Last Edit: 03/13/2025 09:18 pm by meekGee »
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Offline StraumliBlight

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #155 on: 03/20/2025 03:26 pm »
Eric Berger's prediction for the next launch.

Quote
Q: What is your prediction for next NG launch?
erberger: Thanksgiving.

Quote
erberger: I have heard some interesting things about negotiations over the Escapade launch that I'm not ready to report publicly. It's possible the next launch is Escapade, but also not. As for Blue Moon, I'd be absolutely shocked if it flew in 2025. I'd be thrilled to see it go next year, for that matter.

Online GewoonLukas_

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #156 on: 04/04/2025 09:54 pm »
Quote
Space Systems Command awards National Security Space Launch Phase 3 Lane 2 contracts
April 4, 2025

Space Systems Command awarded three National Security Space Launch Phase 3 Lane 2 contracts April 4.

These Firm Fixed-Price, Indefinite-Delivery Requirements contracts were awarded to SpaceX, United Launch Services, and Blue Origin to provide critical space support to meet national security objectives.

Anticipated values for these contracts are $5,923,580,297 for SpaceX, $5,366,439,406 for United Launch Services, and $2,386,234,812 for Blue Origin.

[...]

SpaceX, as the Requirement 1 provider, is anticipated to be awarded 28 missions or about 60% and ULA, as the Requirement 2 provider, is anticipated to be awarded 19 missions or about 40% of the Phase 3 Lane 2 missions from FY25 to FY29. Blue Origin, as the Requirement 3 provider is projected to be awarded seven Phase 3 Lane 2 missions starting in Order Year 2.

Mission awards in FY25–FY29 are projected to have a nominal two-year integration resulting in launches from FY27–FY32.

SSC, in partnership with the NRO, will conduct the Phase 3 Lane 2 Mission Assignment Board to assign the FY25 Order Year 1 missions, and will make those announcements separately following completion of that process, and then in October of each subsequent order year.

~$328M per launch
« Last Edit: 04/04/2025 09:58 pm by GewoonLukas_ »
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Offline StraumliBlight

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #157 on: 04/04/2025 10:13 pm »
https://twitter.com/blueorigin/status/1908273827626274958

New Glenn Awarded Critical National Security Space Launch Contract [Apr 4]

Quote
Blue Origin won a contract today to serve as a National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 Lane 2 heavy-lift provider for the nation’s most critical missions. We’re proud to support the Department of Defense and the National Reconnaissance Office in this effort. The award marks an important step to expand the choice of launch providers and sustained competition for assured access to space. For more information about today’s award, go here. 

“It's an honor and huge responsibility to team with the U.S. Government to launch our nation’s most important assets,” said Jarrett Jones, SVP, New Glenn. “Through this partnership, we’re looking forward to delivering on a number of critical national security priorities.”

This contract tasks New Glenn with missions to stressing orbits requiring higher performance launch systems and full mission assurance as a Space Systems Command (SSC)-certified launch vehicle. The payloads delivered will support our nation’s strategic advantage in space. 

This is the third national security launch-related contract we've been awarded in the past year. In June 2024, Blue Origin won a contract to compete for NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 missions. We also won a contract in July 2024 to compete for missions in the Orbital Services Program (OSP)-4, which allows New Glenn to compete for task orders intended to put capabilities on orbit within two years.

January’s NG-1 launch was our first NSSL certification flight, and we expect to fly NG-2 in late spring.
« Last Edit: 04/04/2025 10:14 pm by StraumliBlight »

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #158 on: 04/05/2025 03:03 am »
If there are a total of 28 missions for SpaceX, 19 for ULA and 7 for Blue Origin, I get a total of 54 missions, which gives 52% to SpaceX, 35% to ULA and 13% to Blue. Average price per launch is $211.6M for SpaceX, $282.4M for ULA and $340.9M for Blue.
« Last Edit: 04/05/2025 03:12 am by Steven Pietrobon »
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: New Glenn Launch Manifest
« Reply #159 on: 05/06/2025 09:28 am »
Cross-post:
0511-EX-CN-2025
Quote
UFO-Odyssey will demonstrate rapid response to requirements for on-orbit testing and verification of optical and computational experiments. The experiments include imaging of other spacecraft during and immediately after deployment, data communications, and computer networking & edge processing.

The spacecraft will be launched aboard Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station NET 1 August 2025. It will be inserted into a 470 km circular orbit with an inclination of 54 degrees. It will be deployed concurrently with two NASA R5 spacecraft (R5-S3 and R5-S5) and immediately begin imaging their deployment for RPOD and mission assurance purposes. After this testing of onboard processing and data communications will begin, and will continue for the duration of the mission.

The NET August 1st launch date and inclination (55°) seem to match up with the DarkSky-1-2 launch.

TBD - ELaNa 42: DARLA, OrCa2, R5-S3, R5-S5, TechEdSat-16 - TBD - Vandenberg

Vandenberg should be updated to LC-36.

R5-S3 and R5-S5 were manifested on Firefly Alpha, with a NET May 2025 launch date. Maybe the recent launch failure caused the switch?
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