Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4 (Read 428790 times)

starhawk92 · « **on:** 05/04/2016 05:30 pm »

Discussion of the manifest, and updates. The best guess at the current manifest is in this post.
Discussion of the table format should be done here: SpaceX Manifest Table Format Discussion
This table is now being maintained by gongora

Prior thread 3 : https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40049.0

Sites:
C=Canaveral (UTC-4 EDT,UTC-5 EST)
CCAFS SLC-40: Damaged by vehicle explosion (no launches until around August 2017)
KSC LC-39A: Active for F9, will need further work for FH and Commercial Crew
V=Vandenberg (UTC-7 PDT,UTC-8 PST)
SLC-4E: Active for F9
B=Boca Chica (UTC-5 CDT,UTC-6 CST)
Site preparation work underway

Daylight saving time starts second Sunday in March, ends first Sunday in November, time changes at 2:00 a.m. local time

Local	LV	Core	Ret-	.	.	Mass	.	Mis-
Est. Date, Time/UTC	.	S/N	urn	Payload(s)	Orb	(kg)	Site	ion
`-------------------`	`---`	`------`	`---`	`----------------------------`	`---`	`-----`	`-----`	`----`
2015-12-22	F9	1019	L	ORBCOMM OG2 Launch 2	LEO	1892	C-40	20
2016-01-17 1042/-8	F9	.	S	Jason-3	LEO	553	V-4E	21
2016-03-04 1835/-5	F9	.	S	SES-9	GTO	5271	C-40	22
2016-04-08 1643/-4	F9	1021.1	S	CRS-8	LEO	~9k	C-40	23
2016-05-06 0121/-4	F9	1022	S	JCSAT-14	GTO	4696	C-40	24
2016-05-27 1740/-4	F9	1023.1	S	Thaicom 8	GTO	3025	C-40	25
2016-06-15 1029/-4	F9	.	S	Eutelsat 117W B & ABS-2A	GTO	4200	C-40	26
2016-07-18 0045/-4	F9	.	L	CRS-9	LEO	~9k	C-40	27
2016-08-14 0126/-4	F9	.	S	JCSAT-16	GTO	~4600	C-40	28
2016-09-01 0907/-4	F9	.	N/A	AMOS-6(destroyed in pad test)	GTO	5500	C-40	29
2017-01-14 0954/-8	F9	1029.1	S	Iridium NEXT (Flight 1)	PLR	9600	V-4E	30
2017-02-19 0939/-5	F9	1031	L	CRS 10	LEO	~9k	C-39A	31
2017-03-16 0200/-4	F9	1030	X	Echostar 23	GTO	~5500	C-39A	32
2017-03-30 1827/-4	F9	1021.2	S	SES-10	GTO	5282	C-39A	33
2017-05-01 0715/-4	F9	1032	L	NROL-76	LEO	?	C-39A	34
2017-05-15 1921/-4	F9	1034	X	Inmarsat 5 F4	GTO	6086	C-39A	35
2017-06-03 1707/-4	F9	1035	L	CRS 11	LEO	~9k	C-39A	36
2017-06-23 1510/-4	F9	1029.2	S	BulgariaSat-1	GTO	3669	C-39A	37
2017-06-25 1325/-7	F9	1036	S	Iridium NEXT (Flight 2)	PLR	9600	V-4E	38
2017-07-05 1938/-4	F9	1037	X	Intelsat 35e	GTO	6761	C-39A	39
`-------------------`	`---`	`------`	`---`	`----------------------------`	`---`	`-----`	`-----`	`----`
2017-08-14~1400/-4	F9	1039	L	CRS 12	LEO	~9k	C-39A	40
2017-08-24 1150/-7	F9	1038	S	FORMOSAT-5	SSO	475	V-4E	41
2017-08-late	F9	.	L	Air Force X-37B OTV-5	LEO	5400	C	42
2017-09	F9	.	?	SES-11/Echostar 105	GTO	5400	C	43
2017-09	F9	.	S	Iridium NEXT (Flight 3)	PLR	9600	V-4E	.
2017-Q4	F9	.	S	Koreasat-5A	GTO	3500	C	.
2017-10	F9	.	S	GovSat-1 (SES-16)	GTO	4000	C	.
2017-Q4	F9	.	S	Iridium NEXT (Flight 4)	PLR	9600	V-4E	.
2017-11	F9	.	L	CRS 13	LEO	~9k	C	.
2017-Q4	F9	.	.	Hispasat 1F	GTO	~5k	C	(60)
2017-Q4	H	.	LLS	Falcon Heavy Demo Flight	.	.	C-39A	(50)
2017-12	F9	.	.	Bangabandhu	GTO	~3500	C	61
2017	F9	.	.	Paz & co-passenger	SSO	1400	V-4E	(62)
2017-2018	F9	.	S	Iridium NEXT (Flight 5)	PLR	9600	V-4E	.
2018	F9	.	.	Spaceflight SSO-A (575km)	SSO	.	V-4E	(70)
2018-Q1	F9	.	S	SES-14 (NASA GOLD payload)	GTO	4200	C	.
2018	F9	.	S	Es'hail 2	GTO	~3k	C	.
2018-02	F9	.	L	CRS 14	LEO	~9k	C	.
2018-02	F9	.	?	CCtCap DM1	LEO	.	C-39A	.
2018-Q1	F9	.	.	Iridium NEXT (Flight 6)	PLR	9600	V-4E	.
2018-H1	H	.	LLS	Arabsat 6A	GTO	~6k	C-39A	.
2018-03-20	F9	.	.	NASA (TESS)	HEO	325	C	.
2018-03	F9	.	?	SAOCOM 1A	SSO	2800	V-4E	.
2018-04	F9	.	L	CRS 15	LEO	~9k	C	.
2018-H1	F9	.	.	Iridium NEXT (Flight 7)	PLR	9600	V-4E	.
2018-H1	F9	.	.	CCiCap In-Flight Abort Test	SUB	.	C-39A	.
2018-H1	F9	.	.	Telstar 18 Vantage/Apstar-5C	GTO	>5400	C	.
2018-H1	F9	.	.	Telstar 19 Vantage	GTO	>5400	C	.
2018-H1	H	.	LLS	STP-2 (US Air Force)	MEO	~8k?	C-39A	.
2018-05	F9	.	.	USAF GPS III A-2	MEO	3880	C	.
2018-06	F9	.	.	Telkom 4	GTO	.	C	(68)
2018	F9	.	.	CCtCap DM2 (Crew)	LEO	.	C-39A	.
2018-mid	F9	.	.	Iridium NEXT 8/GRACE-FO	SSO	~6000	V-4E	.
2018	F9	.	?	PSN-6 and co-passenger	GTO	5000	C	.
2018-08	F9	.	L	CRS 16	LEO	~9k	C	.
2018-Q3	F9	.	.	RADARSAT Constellation	SSO	1400	V-4E	.
2018	F9	.	.	OHB SARah 1	SSO	~2200	V-4E	.
2018-10	F9	.	L	CRS 17	LEO	~9k	C	.
2018-Q4	F9	.	.	Spaceflight SSO-B (500km)	SSO	.	V-4E	(70)
2018-Q4	F9	.	.	GiSat-1	GTO	~6k	C/B	.
2018-H2	F9	.	.	Spaceflight GTO-1(200x36k/km)	GTO	.	C	(70)
2018-H2	F9	.	.	Spaceflight GTO-2(200x60k/km)	GTO	.	C	(70)
2018-12	F9	.	L	CRS 18	LEO	~9k	C	.
2018-2019	H	.	???	SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar	TLI	~10k?	C-39A	(99)
2019	F9	.	.	CRS 19-20	LEO	.	C	.
2019-02	F9	.	.	USAF GPS IIIA-3	MEO	3880	C	.
2019	F9	.	.	SAOCOM 1B and companions	SSO	~3-4k	V-4E	.
2019	F9	.	.	OHB SARah 2/3	SSO	~3600	V-4E	.
2019-H2	F9	.	.	Spaceflight SSO-C (500km SSO)	SSO	.	V-4E	(70)
2020	F	.	.	Inmarsat 6 F1	GTO	.	C/B	(65)
2020-H1	F9	.	.	Spaceflight GTO-C(200x36k/km)	GTO	.	C/B	(70)
2020-H1	F9	.	.	Spaceflight SSO-D (500km SSO)	SSO	.	V-4E	(70)
2020-2021	H	.	.	ViaSat 3-Americas or 3-EMEA	GTO	6400	C/B	(69)
2021-04	F9	.	.	SWOT	LEO	2000	V-4E	.
TBD	F	.	.	Inmarsat	GTO	.	C/B	.
TBD (2019-2024)	F9	.	.	Commercial Crew (6 flights)	LEO	.	C-39A	.
TBD (2019-2024)	F9	.	.	CRS-2 (6+ flights)	LEO	.	C	.
TBD	F	.	.	EutelSat	.	.	.	.

Return: L=Land,S=Sea,X=Expendable,N/A=Not Applicable
Launch Vehicle: F9=Falcon 9, H=Falcon Heavy, F=Falcon 9 or Heavy
Colors: Successful / Unsuccessful / Mars!!!! / Footnotes

L2 SpaceX CRS External Cargo
L2 Level SpaceX Falcon 9 Stage Watch / Public Core Spotting
SpaceX Launch Log (past launches)
Wikipedia Falcon Launches
Viewing flights from Vandenberg
Upcoming SpaceX Talks

NOTES:
(50) FH Demo - Serial Numbers: Center:1033 Side1:1023.2 Side2: 1025.2
(60) Hispasat 1f also called Hispasat 30W-6
(62) Paz (Hisdesat) post in manifest thread / article in DW
(65) Inmarsat 6 F1 SpaceNews mention / Airbus contract / Gunter / Space Intel mention
(68) Telkom 4 links Gunter
(69) Viasat 3 : one of first two Viasat 3 birds in mid-2019 or early-2020. Also third Viasat 3 if it gets built?
ViaSatellite 2/10/16 SpaceNews 2/10/2016 Gunter
(70) Spaceflight Industries : Upcoming Spaceflight Ind. schedule
(99) SpaceX announcement

Competitions for future payloads:
Air Force - EELV, First 5

L2 notes on manifest:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42937.msg1679127#msg1679127 [May 16, 2017]
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42452.msg1701815#msg1701815 [July 12, 2017]
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42426.msg1702614#msg1702614 [July 15, 2017]

Recent Edits:
Jul 21 Moved CRS-12 to August 14. Moved DM-1 to February 2018.
Jul 19 Removed Red Dragon
Jul 11 Moved SAOCOM-1A to March 2018, SAOCOM-1B to 2019, removed specific months from future Iridium flights
Jun 30 Moved SES-14 to 2018-Q1
Jun 28 Moved OTV-5 to August 28.
Jun 27 Removed exact date from OTV-5. Moved Formosat-5 to August 24. Moved Iridium Flight 3 to September. Moved SES-11 to September. Moved Koreasat-5A to Q4. Moved PSN-6 to mid-2018. Moved Intelsat 35e to July 2. Removed ViaSat-3 Asia. Marked Iridium Flight 2 complete.
Jun 23 Moved CRS-12 to Aug 10. Marked BulgariaSat 1 complete.
Jun 22 Moved Arabsat 6A before STP-2, both early/H1 2018
Jun 17 OTV-5 August 17. Changed table format, now being maintained by gongora.

All comments and updates are welcomed! Thank you to all contributors!

starhawk92 · « **Reply #1 on:** 05/04/2016 05:35 pm »

The biggest question is if we know for sure that the RTLS pad/infrastructure will be in place in time for Formosat/Sherpa and how soon we might get a launch date for the west coast.

Lars-J · « **Reply #2 on:** 05/04/2016 06:53 pm »

Why does this update need its own thread? Are you going to start a new thread for every change?

sewebster · « **Reply #3 on:** 05/04/2016 07:08 pm »

Quote from: Lars-J on 05/04/2016 06:53 pm

Why does this update need its own thread? Are you going to start a new thread for every change?

This new thread is started by starhawk92 so now he can edit the first post in place, and update the subject line...

edit: maybe not... see below...

starhawk92 · « **Reply #4 on:** 05/04/2016 08:39 pm »

Quote from: Lars-J on 05/04/2016 06:53 pm

Why does this update need its own thread? Are you going to start a new thread for every change?

No, it's been hashed over pretty well for a few weeks. Probably will only update after a major event (like a launch) or when a lot of smaller updates accumulate. Each new publication of the table will get it's own thread. Senior Members and Moderators know about this. If this does not work out, we'll go back to the old way.

Innovate Forward, the SpaceX way!!

Lar · « **Reply #5 on:** 05/04/2016 09:18 pm »

Probably going to rename this thread and lock (3).... by having the lead post be Starhawk92's they can edit the post similar to how the abort scrubs is handled and it is easy to find since it's the lead.

(https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40049.0 is thread three)

arnezami · « **Reply #6 on:** 05/04/2016 09:40 pm »

Mass for JCSat 14 (JCSat 2B) is 4696.2 kg

Source: Federal Communication Commission

Click on "Attachment Menu", then on "Attachment Schedule S Documents". At the last page it says "Mass of spacecraft & fuel at launch: 4696.2 kg".

(btw this is not my find, but GerdW's on raumfahrer.net)

sewebster · « **Reply #7 on:** 05/04/2016 09:56 pm »

Quote from: starhawk92 on 05/04/2016 08:39 pm

Quote from: Lars-J on 05/04/2016 06:53 pm
Why does this update need its own thread? Are you going to start a new thread for every change?

No, it's been hashed over pretty well for a few weeks. Probably will only update after a major event (like a launch) or when a lot of smaller updates accumulate. Each new publication of the table will get it's own thread. Senior Members and Moderators know about this. If this does not work out, we'll go back to the old way.

Innovate Forward, the SpaceX way!!

Oh, a separate thread for each update? This doesn't seem consistent with what Lar wrote below (and he's a mod).

edit: I meant below the quote, so, above this!

Lar · « **Reply #8 on:** 05/04/2016 09:58 pm »

I guess I should talk to starhawk92 about this but I assume they were going to edit the header post with updates. NOT a separate thread for each update.... that's way too many threads.

Edit: All good, that's how it will be, the header post will have the latest. I put a link back to thread 3 in the header as well.

friendly3 · « **Reply #9 on:** 05/04/2016 10:08 pm »

Quote from: arnezami on 05/04/2016 09:40 pm

Mass for JCSat 14 (JCSat 2B) is 4696.2 kg

Source: Federal Communication Commission

Click on "Attachment Menu", then on "Attachment Schedule S Documents". At the last page it says "Mass of spacecraft & fuel at launch: 4696.2 kg".

(btw this is not my find, but GerdW's on raumfahrer.net)

Nice find, arnezami. You would make a good detective.

abaddon · « **Reply #10 on:** 05/04/2016 10:38 pm »

Quote from: arnezami on 05/04/2016 09:40 pm

Mass for JCSat 14 (JCSat 2B) is 4696.2 kg

Props to Kabloona, who estimated it at 4500kg.

So, definitely lighter than SES-9, will be interesting to see how this affects the recovery profile (or not).

arnezami · « **Reply #11 on:** 05/05/2016 07:38 am »

For comparison: on space.skyrocket.de there is also a manifest for the Falcon 9 v1.2 and for the Falcon Heavy.

When you click on the links for the payloads you get nice information and references to sources.

oldAtlas_Eguy · « **Reply #12 on:** 05/05/2016 04:10 pm »

This article was interesting from the standpoint that MDA executives see a trend starting that has two prongs: GSO sats are getting heavier (those not on contract yet) and the LEO constellation sats are multiplying rapidly.
http://spacenews.com/mda-corp-says-commercial-satcom-bidding-is-at-record-high-level/

For SpaceX this implication is that there will be an upswing in use of FH for GSO sats and a possible increase in launches out of VAFB for commercial customers probably using the now heavier LEO capable F9. Also the impact on the manifest would be that the LEO constellations would probably launch sooner than the new heavier GSO sats. I would not expect the wave of larger GSO to be NET 2019 and more likely 2020. They would probably grow in size to be up to the capabilities of a Vulcan/ACES or Ariane 64 whichever is lower. This size would also put them at the edge or beyond F9 capabilities meaning a lot more FH launches in the 2019 and latter time frame.

Tass · « **Reply #13 on:** 05/05/2016 05:52 pm »

Four missions in May?! Oh that would be great if it were true.

Half of that will still be great. And just one will be fine (as long as it is followed by another in June).

pericynthion · « **Reply #14 on:** 05/05/2016 09:33 pm »

@starhawk92: Does a blank "1S Tgt" mean expendable or just unknown? Maybe you could put something in there to distinguish?

mnelson · « **Reply #15 on:** 05/06/2016 06:38 am »

On April 29 spaceflightnow.com:
"Falcon 9/Eutelsat 117 West B & ABS 2A delayed; Falcon 9/Thaicom 8 moved forward"

They've swapped the order of these flights. Thaicom 8 as "late May" and Eutelsat 117 in June.

Comga · « **Reply #16 on:** 05/06/2016 06:51 am »

Time for another update edit and more green text!
Whoo Hoo!
2016-05-06 F9(24) OCISLY JCSAT-14 [2] GTO 4696 LC40

starhawk92 · « **Reply #17 on:** 05/06/2016 08:05 am »

Update in a few hours, I need to try to get some sleep before the daily grind begins!!

rockets4life97 · « **Reply #18 on:** 05/06/2016 03:34 pm »

Spaceflight Now updated their list and now has Thaicom 8 on May 26 and CRS-9 on June 27.

schaban · « **Reply #19 on:** 05/06/2016 04:18 pm »

Quote from: pericynthion on 05/05/2016 09:33 pm

@starhawk92: Does a blank "1S Tgt" mean expendable or just unknown? Maybe you could put something in there to distinguish?

yes, "-" or "NR" where is definite no recovery would be nice. Unknown would stay blank.