CRS8 Landing Poll

[CraigLieb]

Rev up the CRS-8 Falcon 1st stage prognosticators...

[GeneBelcher]

Tough choice between "land on the ASDS, and be successfully returned to port intact" and "land on the ASDS, but topple or fail to make it back to port". I'm optimistic this time since Jason-3 was so damn close.

[dorkmo]

this is the one!

[OxCartMark]

this is the one!

[Comga]

this is the one!

Aren't we the optimists?

I am also optimistic that SpaceX will repair the big hole in the deck of OCISLY in time to set sail and that the weather at sea will be tolerable.

Go SpaceX!

[mheney]

Looks like I'm in the pessimistic minority here - they've been basically perfect at getting the stage to the barge, but haven't beemn able to stick the landing.  I'd love to see them do it - but this stuff is HARD.

[Jarnis]

What, no option to "they'll let the ASDS float all alone and pull a 'surprise' RTLS instead"?

 

(I wouldn't still rule that out. They might be in all ASDS mode and then later get the papers sorted for RTLS and announce they're shifting it there instead, possibly doing so as late as the launch day)

[Mader Levap]

this is the one!

We heard same thing already five times...

(I wouldn't still rule that out. They might be in all ASDS mode and then later get the papers sorted for RTLS and announce they're shifting it there instead, possibly doing so as late as the launch day)

No, lack of paperwork was not reason for barge landing. They want to practice barge landing more, since no successes so far and they probably think that all failures so far were unrelated to fact of landing on barge.

[QuantumG]

Exactly, they're in learning mode.

[intrepidpursuit]

All the pieces have come together. On that last normal attempt they stuck the landing but broke an ankle. Every time they have eliminated more failure modes. Now they have all been tested start to finish. Don't forget, this is the first normal landing attempt with the F9 (upgrade, FT, v1.2, Binford F9-2000) since the successful RTLS on ORB-2. There are very few unknowns now.

I'd say there is a 90%+ chance of success. Transporting it back to the cape is an unknown, but isn't exactly a groundbreaking feat.

[hop]

Having failed to learn my lesson from SES-9, I voted for successful recovery again 

Not high confidence, but I do expect them to nail it pretty soon.

[The Amazing Catstronaut]

I think they'll nail it technically, but they need to keep their luck up. Maybe a five leafed clover?

[llanitedave]

It's gonna happen this time.  I feel it in my bones! 


(My bones feel a lot of stuff.)

[Ronsmytheiii]

They will switch to a RTLS....

[wannamoonbase]

They will switch to a RTLS....

I agree, I think that is the correct answer.  But wasn't one of the options.

As before we may not know until launch is only a few days away.

Hopefully most of the LEO missions can RTLS.  The success rate is obviously much higher.

[rpapo]

They will switch to a RTLS....

I agree, I think that is the correct answer.  But wasn't one of the options.

As before we may not know until launch is only a few days away.

Hopefully most of the LEO missions can RTLS.  The success rate is obviously much higher.

We don't really know the long term success rate, not yet, since we have a sample size of one for landings on land.  The problem with the JASON launch could easily have happened on land.

But I don't doubt that RTLS is by far the most reliable scenario if you can afford the fuel: the landing site isn't rolling with the waves, and the weather is pretty much whatever the weather was for launch.

[the_other_Doug]

I just think that SpaceX really wants to demonstrate a successful ASDS landing.  The ASDS approach lets them recover boosters from missions requiring more delta-V from the first stage, as well as FH center cores.  That's why I voted for them nailing the landing this time -- they're working hard on getting it to work.  And they have a good delta-V budget on this flight, they don't have to try a three-engine suicide burn with very low chances of succeeding at anything except putting a hole in the barge.

They have to get the ASDS option working in order to get the business plan to work, I think.  So, even when RTLS will work, I expect to see them keep trying ASDS landings until they feel they have the bugs out, and only then going to RTLS as often as possible.

As to what SpaceX will consider having all the bugs out, I can't speculate...

[OxCartMark]

According to the analysis I just performed they should be able to land it successfully 1.3 times on this attempt.

[the_other_Doug]

I love the way you've quantified "successyness", there...

[vapour_nudge]

OCISLY sounds apologetic. It's what the ASDS says as the Falcon misses & ditches in the ocean following a successful launch & payload delivery. Fins are for swimming or is that not poll-itically correct? 😄