Author Topic: CRS8 Landing Poll (Read 22159 times)

CraigLieb · « **on:** 03/24/2016 01:51 pm »

Rev up the CRS-8 Falcon 1st stage prognosticators...

GeneBelcher · « **Reply #1 on:** 03/24/2016 02:09 pm »

Tough choice between "land on the ASDS, and be successfully returned to port intact" and "land on the ASDS, but topple or fail to make it back to port". I'm optimistic this time since Jason-3 was so damn close.

dorkmo · « **Reply #2 on:** 03/24/2016 02:15 pm »

this is the one!

OxCartMark · « **Reply #3 on:** 03/24/2016 02:57 pm »

Quote from: dorkmo on 03/24/2016 02:15 pm

this is the one!

Comga · « **Reply #4 on:** 03/24/2016 03:05 pm »

Quote from: OxCartMark on 03/24/2016 02:57 pm

Quote from: dorkmo on 03/24/2016 02:15 pm
this is the one!

Aren't we the optimists?

I am also optimistic that SpaceX will repair the big hole in the deck of OCISLY in time to set sail and that the weather at sea will be tolerable.

Go SpaceX!

mheney · « **Reply #5 on:** 03/24/2016 05:13 pm »

Looks like I'm in the pessimistic minority here - they've been basically perfect at getting the stage to the barge, but haven't beemn able to stick the landing. I'd love to see them do it - but this stuff is HARD.

Jarnis · « **Reply #6 on:** 03/25/2016 05:52 am »

What, no option to "they'll let the ASDS float all alone and pull a 'surprise' RTLS instead"?

(I wouldn't still rule that out. They might be in all ASDS mode and then later get the papers sorted for RTLS and announce they're shifting it there instead, possibly doing so as late as the launch day)

Mader Levap · « **Reply #7 on:** 03/25/2016 09:44 am »

Quote from: dorkmo on 03/24/2016 02:15 pm

this is the one!

We heard same thing already five times...

Quote from: Jarnis on 03/25/2016 05:52 am

(I wouldn't still rule that out. They might be in all ASDS mode and then later get the papers sorted for RTLS and announce they're shifting it there instead, possibly doing so as late as the launch day)

No, lack of paperwork was not reason for barge landing. They want to practice barge landing more, since no successes so far and they probably think that all failures so far were unrelated to fact of landing on barge.

QuantumG · « **Reply #8 on:** 03/25/2016 10:33 am »

Exactly, they're in learning mode.

intrepidpursuit · « **Reply #9 on:** 03/25/2016 06:52 pm »

All the pieces have come together. On that last normal attempt they stuck the landing but broke an ankle. Every time they have eliminated more failure modes. Now they have all been tested start to finish. Don't forget, this is the first normal landing attempt with the F9 (upgrade, FT, v1.2, Binford F9-2000) since the successful RTLS on ORB-2. There are very few unknowns now.

I'd say there is a 90%+ chance of success. Transporting it back to the cape is an unknown, but isn't exactly a groundbreaking feat.

hop · « **Reply #10 on:** 03/25/2016 07:42 pm »

Having failed to learn my lesson from SES-9, I voted for successful recovery again

Not high confidence, but I do expect them to nail it pretty soon.

The Amazing Catstronaut · « **Reply #11 on:** 03/25/2016 09:08 pm »

I think they'll nail it technically, but they need to keep their luck up. Maybe a five leafed clover?

llanitedave · « **Reply #12 on:** 03/26/2016 05:32 am »

It's gonna happen this time. I feel it in my bones!

(My bones feel a lot of stuff.)

Ronsmytheiii · « **Reply #13 on:** 03/26/2016 11:44 am »

They will switch to a RTLS....

wannamoonbase · « **Reply #14 on:** 03/26/2016 08:52 pm »

Quote from: Ronsmytheiii on 03/26/2016 11:44 am

They will switch to a RTLS....

I agree, I think that is the correct answer. But wasn't one of the options.

As before we may not know until launch is only a few days away.

Hopefully most of the LEO missions can RTLS. The success rate is obviously much higher.

rpapo · « **Reply #15 on:** 03/26/2016 08:57 pm »

Quote from: wannamoonbase on 03/26/2016 08:52 pm

Quote from: Ronsmytheiii on 03/26/2016 11:44 am
They will switch to a RTLS....

I agree, I think that is the correct answer. But wasn't one of the options.

As before we may not know until launch is only a few days away.

Hopefully most of the LEO missions can RTLS. The success rate is obviously much higher.

We don't really know the long term success rate, not yet, since we have a sample size of one for landings on land. The problem with the JASON launch could easily have happened on land.

But I don't doubt that RTLS is by far the most reliable scenario if you can afford the fuel: the landing site isn't rolling with the waves, and the weather is pretty much whatever the weather was for launch.

the_other_Doug · « **Reply #16 on:** 03/26/2016 11:20 pm »

I just think that SpaceX really wants to demonstrate a successful ASDS landing. The ASDS approach lets them recover boosters from missions requiring more delta-V from the first stage, as well as FH center cores. That's why I voted for them nailing the landing this time -- they're working hard on getting it to work. And they have a good delta-V budget on this flight, they don't have to try a three-engine suicide burn with very low chances of succeeding at anything except putting a hole in the barge.

They have to get the ASDS option working in order to get the business plan to work, I think. So, even when RTLS will work, I expect to see them keep trying ASDS landings until they feel they have the bugs out, and only then going to RTLS as often as possible.

As to what SpaceX will consider having all the bugs out, I can't speculate...

OxCartMark · « **Reply #17 on:** 03/27/2016 03:38 am »

According to the analysis I just performed they should be able to land it successfully 1.3 times on this attempt.

the_other_Doug · « **Reply #18 on:** 03/27/2016 03:42 am »

I love the way you've quantified "successyness", there...

vapour_nudge · « **Reply #19 on:** 03/27/2016 04:31 am »

OCISLY sounds apologetic. It's what the ASDS says as the Falcon misses & ditches in the ocean following a successful launch & payload delivery. Fins are for swimming or is that not poll-itically correct? 😄

ZachS09 · « **Reply #20 on:** 03/27/2016 06:03 pm »

Quote from: OxCartMark on 03/27/2016 03:38 am

According to the analysis I just performed they should be able to land it successfully 1.3 times on this attempt.

Don't forget SES-9; it attempted an ASDS landing.

Lar · « **Reply #21 on:** 03/27/2016 06:42 pm »

Quote from: the_other_Doug on 03/27/2016 03:42 am

I love the way you've quantified "successyness", there...

Leave him alone, he's science-ing...

OxCartMark · « **Reply #22 on:** 03/27/2016 11:25 pm »

Quote from: longdrivechampion102 on 03/27/2016 06:03 pm

Quote from: OxCartMark on 03/27/2016 03:38 am
According to the analysis I just performed they should be able to land it successfully 1.3 times on this attempt.

Don't forget SES-9; it attempted an ASDS landing.

Not counting that or DSCOVR because they were not fair attempts;
- DSCOVR: ASDS was damaged and blown off course and wasn't there to receive F9 (which landed well on target)
- SES-9: Wasn't expected to even get there because of super hot entry, suicide burn, etc.
Just counting fair attempts so that the I don't have do invoke the 'degree of difficulty' multiplier in the successiness formula. I imagine if I'd run the SES-9 numbers with that very high degree of difficulty it would count as two landings. And from a momentum standpoint its easy to see even without the formula that SES-9 had at least the momentum of two successful landings.

jongoff · « **Reply #23 on:** 03/28/2016 10:43 pm »

Quote from: mheney on 03/24/2016 05:13 pm

Looks like I'm in the pessimistic minority here - they've been basically perfect at getting the stage to the barge, but haven't beemn able to stick the landing. I'd love to see them do it - but this stuff is HARD.

Yeah, I hope I'm being overly pessimistic, but not sure if their odds are better than 50/50 of getting the stage back on any given barge landing. Hopefully it'll improve with time, but I don't think it was a coincidence that they're 1/1 for land landings and 0 for something like 4 for barge landings. Fingers crossed, and I'd love to try out some of my new crow recipes if they pull this off.

~Jon

Ronsmytheiii · « **Reply #24 on:** 03/29/2016 01:55 am »

Quote from: the_other_Doug on 03/26/2016 11:20 pm

I just think that SpaceX really wants to demonstrate a successful ASDS landing.

The end goal is to demonstrate successful and economic reuse of a stage. SpaceX needs/wants to do that first, so if RTLS gets them a returned core, that advances the goal better. Use ASDS how you would " operationally" for high energy missions, don't stack the deck.

CraigLieb · « **Reply #25 on:** 04/05/2016 08:24 pm »

Poll voting is closed:
For a SUCCESSFULLY launched, CRS-8 mission targeting the ASDS, First stage action:
199 out of 212 (93.87%) believe that it will actually land on the ASDS!
- a majority (78.3%) thinking it will make it back to port safely
- and others (15.6%) imagining reasons it will fail to do so like toppling over during transit

Remaining choices (13 votes for a total 6.2%)
- including my favorite failure, the cherished "Kaboomy goodness" (3.3%)
- One brave soul (0.5%) thinking it will not reach ASDS and ditch intact in the ocean
- and 2.4% thinking some other outcome like dis-assembly during return or something else.

Good luck to all and thanks for playing....

CraigLieb · « **Reply #26 on:** 04/08/2016 09:19 pm »

...and we are down to the majority opinion choices...

land on the ASDS, and be successfully returned to port intact
(or)
land on the ASDS, but topple or fail to make it back to port

now bring it HOME GUYS and GALS!!!

rocx · « **Reply #27 on:** 04/09/2016 10:19 am »

I have voted for the 'fail to make it back to port' option, so I might still be proven right. But I was mostly worried about the stage tipping at landing, and even after touchdown I held my heart for five seconds to be sure the thing was not moving anymore. I'm hoping I will be proven wrong tomorrow, and expecting it.

CraigLieb · « **Reply #28 on:** 04/12/2016 07:23 am »

Quote from: windowless on 04/12/2016 07:07 am

Youtube video of Port Canaveral webcam footage. 58mins.

Successfully returned to port intact. 166 (78.3%). Picked the winner!
And a sigh of relief was heard by all.

Poll

For a successfully launched CRS-8 mission targeting the ASDS, I believe the first stage will...

Author Topic: CRS8 Landing Poll (Read 22159 times)