Quote from: Zed_Noir on 01/14/2024 09:15 pmQuote from: redliox on 01/14/2024 05:14 pmMajor pity on the delay, but glad it's not a cancelation. JAXA will still end up with the honor of bringing the first samples from the vicinity of Mars back to Earth.Wonder if using another launcher is an option for JAXA to avoid the 2 year delay?MMX's mass was reported as 4,000 kg in 2020 https://www.mext.go.jp/kaigisiryo/content/000034537.pdf and inserted in a direct Mars transfer orbit; which is awfuly close to Falcon 9's advertised payload to mars of 4,020 kg (which also isn't a static thing, but slightly varies for each synods);4 years later I have no doubt that the inevitable minor mass creep makes it impossible for JAXA to launch it on a Falcon 9, so the alternative is a Falcon Heavy which is possibly unavailable to order and launch on such a relatively short notice and, anyway, more expensive than a H3 and maybe unafordable for JAXA's planned budget (minimum of $97 Million vs $50-90M variously reported for H3).ULA is booked, Ariane 64 will not be ready for the launch, HIIA is both booked, phasing out and not powerful enough, LVM3 is not capable, there are no alternatives.
Quote from: redliox on 01/14/2024 05:14 pmMajor pity on the delay, but glad it's not a cancelation. JAXA will still end up with the honor of bringing the first samples from the vicinity of Mars back to Earth.Wonder if using another launcher is an option for JAXA to avoid the 2 year delay?
Major pity on the delay, but glad it's not a cancelation. JAXA will still end up with the honor of bringing the first samples from the vicinity of Mars back to Earth.
Quote from: TheKutKu on 01/15/2024 10:57 pmQuote from: Zed_Noir on 01/14/2024 09:15 pmQuote from: redliox on 01/14/2024 05:14 pmMajor pity on the delay, but glad it's not a cancelation. JAXA will still end up with the honor of bringing the first samples from the vicinity of Mars back to Earth.Wonder if using another launcher is an option for JAXA to avoid the 2 year delay?MMX's mass was reported as 4,000 kg in 2020 https://www.mext.go.jp/kaigisiryo/content/000034537.pdf and inserted in a direct Mars transfer orbit; which is awfuly close to Falcon 9's advertised payload to mars of 4,020 kg (which also isn't a static thing, but slightly varies for each synods);4 years later I have no doubt that the inevitable minor mass creep makes it impossible for JAXA to launch it on a Falcon 9, so the alternative is a Falcon Heavy which is possibly unavailable to order and launch on such a relatively short notice and, anyway, more expensive than a H3 and maybe unafordable for JAXA's planned budget (minimum of $97 Million vs $50-90M variously reported for H3).ULA is booked, Ariane 64 will not be ready for the launch, HIIA is both booked, phasing out and not powerful enough, LVM3 is not capable, there are no alternatives.It appears that the alternatives are an expended F9, or an FH. Or they can wait for the H3.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 01/16/2024 12:06 amQuote from: TheKutKu on 01/15/2024 10:57 pmQuote from: Zed_Noir on 01/14/2024 09:15 pmQuote from: redliox on 01/14/2024 05:14 pmMajor pity on the delay, but glad it's not a cancelation. JAXA will still end up with the honor of bringing the first samples from the vicinity of Mars back to Earth.Wonder if using another launcher is an option for JAXA to avoid the 2 year delay?MMX's mass was reported as 4,000 kg in 2020 https://www.mext.go.jp/kaigisiryo/content/000034537.pdf and inserted in a direct Mars transfer orbit; which is awfuly close to Falcon 9's advertised payload to mars of 4,020 kg (which also isn't a static thing, but slightly varies for each synods);4 years later I have no doubt that the inevitable minor mass creep makes it impossible for JAXA to launch it on a Falcon 9, so the alternative is a Falcon Heavy which is possibly unavailable to order and launch on such a relatively short notice and, anyway, more expensive than a H3 and maybe unafordable for JAXA's planned budget (minimum of $97 Million vs $50-90M variously reported for H3).ULA is booked, Ariane 64 will not be ready for the launch, HIIA is both booked, phasing out and not powerful enough, LVM3 is not capable, there are no alternatives.It appears that the alternatives are an expended F9, or an FH. Or they can wait for the H3.4,020 kg to TMI are for the expended F9 https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/; there is no alternative that is as cheap as an H3.
But H3 is delayed, so you need to compare it to other LVs that have not yet flown successfully. Clearly, it will be better to use H3 if JAXA determines that MMX can be deferred long enough.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 01/16/2024 12:31 amBut H3 is delayed, so you need to compare it to other LVs that have not yet flown successfully. Clearly, it will be better to use H3 if JAXA determines that MMX can be deferred long enough.MMX is a Japanese national space agency mission. On of their goals is to use the national H3 launcher.
Certainly. Another of their goals is to launch on schedule, based on orbital mechanics. They may need to decide which goal takes precedence. That may become a choice they must make.
Developed by the Japanese space agency JAXA, the spacecraft will explore Phobos from orbit and collect samples from its surface. On board MMX is the IDEFIX rover – a collaboration between the German Aerospace Center (DLR) and the French space agency CNES.IDEFIX will land on Phobos, analyse its surface properties and help select a suitable landing site for the MMX mothership.The MMX mission is scheduled to launch from Japan’s Tanegashima Space Center in 2026.This animation shows the planned mission timeline – from the journey to Mars and its moons, the exploration of Phobos from orbit and on the surface with the IDEFIX rover, to the sample collection by the mothercraft and its return to Earth.
JAXA's Hiroshi Yamakawa says MMX Phobos sample return mission almost ready, undergoing final testing. Launch in 2026, return to Earth with samples of the Martian moon in 2031.
The fifth instalment of “MMX aims for Phobos” is in the September issue of ISAS News (No.534)! This month, we look at the role of the Super Hi-Vision (SHV) cameras & the Interplanetary Radiation Environment Monitor (IREM) in advancing exploration technology. (Article in Japanese)
At the #IAC2025, MMX was a highlight of the JAXA pavilion! A 1:20 scale MMX was on display, with a capsule used in balloon experiments to test the return of the sample in 2031. Friday welcomed the public who realised how large the spacecraft must be when they saw the capsule 👀
The October issue (No. 535) of #ISASNews features our 6th instalment of “MMX Aims for Phobos!” on “decluttering” 📦. There is only so much mass that we can launch, and a round-trip to Mars is heavy business. Decluttering and careful selection were essential before lift-off 🚀
Your message, to the Mars orbit! 🚀Support MMX project by sending a message to be onboard the spacecraft launching in FY2026.You’ll receive a certificate upon submission! 🛰️Apply now: http://goodluck-mmx.jp📅 Nov 10, 2025 – Jan 18, 2026*English site coming soon.
Mitsubishi Electric who developed the MMX spacecraft system made this video to explain how MMX will let us know its position 🛰️📡, even at distances as far as the Martian moons when the signal from the Earth will be weak 👀 (Subtitled in Japanese) 📺:
The 7th instalment of “MMX Aims for Phobos!” Is out in the November issue of #ISASNews (No. 535)! Due to the distance between Earth and the Martian moon, Phobos, MMX must decide on its own where to land. Introducing the “autonomous descent technology” ⬇️ (In Japanese)
The H3 scored a series of successful flights until December, when it failed to deliver a Japanese navigation satellite to orbit. There’s still time for engineers to investigate the failure and return the H3 to flight before MMX’s planetary launch window in October, but the H3 failure introduced some doubt into a scheduled that seemed assured before last month.
