What will be the outcome of New Glenn's second flight (NG-2)?

[TrevorMonty]

They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse *before SpaceX was* (and for a long time, had more strings-free money to invest in it), but it took them nearly a full decade longer.

They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse before SpaceX was. And they achieved it before SpaceX did.

They were NOT pursuing an orbital rocket program before SpaceX was.

Wrong, they were pursuing reusable orbital rocket program all along, it's just they think the path to an orbital RLV is through a sub-orbital RLV.

As Bezos said in the Goddard PR piece: "Our first objective is developing New Shepard, a vertical take-off, vertical-landing vehicle designed to take a small number of astronauts on a sub-orbital journey into space.", and then he said during announcement of New Glenn: "This step-by-step approach is a powerful enabler of boldness and a critical ingredient in achieving the audacious. We’re excited to give you a preview of our next step. One we’ve been working on for four years. Meet New Glenn"

They're not pursuing suborbital for its own sake, it's a step towards orbital rocket. This is a common belief in the 2000s, many companies tried to go down this path, for example XCOR. SpaceX's success with expendable orbital LV to reusable orbital LV path made people forget this used to be the dominant strategy.

So Blue Origin was pursuing reusable orbital rocket around the same time SpaceX was, they lost to SpaceX by 10 years because - among other things - they chose the wrong path.

There was smaller BE3 powered LV in plans at one stage to launch their crew capsule. After missing out on commercial crew they shelved it and moved onto NG.

[thespacecow]

And actually, I think Bezos realized it and course-corrected Blue a few years ago.

Don't mistake this course-correction for the SpaceX approach, either. There were no grasshoppers or Starhoppers. There were no pathfinders or test flights. There was no "maybe clear the pad" or "maybe make orbit".

The only thing Bezos changed was getting rid of Bob Smith and the Honeywell crew, who were ineffective leaders. It's still fundamentally the same traditional rocket program, except now with results.

Why are results happening all of a sudden after a decade of nothing? Because that's how a traditional rocket development program works. You simply don't see or hear anything until the engineering is mature and the on-the-ground testing is complete.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/11/blue-origin-says-its-just-getting-started-with-the-new-glenn-rocket/

"The iterative design from our current 7×2 vehicle means we can build this rocket quickly."

https://x.com/SpaceAbhi/status/1991555967771897979

Entirely expected and predictable. 
It's going to drive some NASA and DOD launch vehicle certification people crazy though.😂
Saw the same thing with the F9.

Starting with NG-3, we will phase in a series of upgrades to the New Glenn launch system designed to increase payload performance, launch cadence, and enhance reliability.

So much for New Glenn is "a traditional rocket development program"...