Starship V3

[wannamoonbase]

Warning: all numbers made up by me with shaky justification.
Two timescales: If everything else is ready, then IFT-12 in early January. They need one Booster and one Ship=39 Raptors, but they need them in time to install them on the Booster and Ship for spin-prime and static fire, so delivery on 1 December: call it 75 days hence. Starting then, the factory begins building another 39 engines for IFT-13. We hope they only need six, but they might miss the Booster catch. IFT-13 on 15 January.

So yes, green lights to Malibu we only need to see Raptor 3 50 at Thanksgiving for IFT-12, not the 100 by Halloween. We need the larger number to allow us outsiders to feel comfortable about the build rate for 2026. IMO SpaceX will need to build five Boosters and maybe 24 Ships in 2026. That's three Boosters for Starbase and two for KSC. 24 Ships because I'm skeptical about Ship recovery and rapid reuse in 2026 and they have a bunch of variants. So: 144 for Ships and 165 for boosters  is 309, minus the 39 for IFT-12 delivered on 1 December is 170 to be delivered from 1 December 2025 and 1 December 2026. That's about one every two days.

This seems in the ball park.

I'd only add that we don't know of the Raptor 3's that have been seen, how many are they willing to bolt onto a flight vehicle.  Most could be development engines at this point.

[crandles57]

Warning: all numbers made up by me with shaky justification.
Two timescales: If everything else is ready, then IFT-12 in early January. They need one Booster and one Ship=39 Raptors, but they need them in time to install them on the Booster and Ship for spin-prime and static fire, so delivery on 1 December: call it 75 days hence. Starting then, the factory begins building another 39 engines for IFT-13. We hope they only need six, but they might miss the Booster catch. IFT-13 on 15 January.

So yes, green lights to Malibu we only need to see Raptor 3 50 at Thanksgiving for IFT-12, not the 100 by Halloween. We need the larger number to allow us outsiders to feel comfortable about the build rate for 2026. IMO SpaceX will need to build five Boosters and maybe 24 Ships in 2026. That's three Boosters for Starbase and two for KSC. 24 Ships because I'm skeptical about Ship recovery and rapid reuse in 2026 and they have a bunch of variants. So: 144 for Ships and 165 for boosters  is 309, minus the 39 for IFT-12 delivered on 1 December is 170 to be delivered from 1 December 2025 and 1 December 2026. That's about one every two days.

>IFT-12 in early January. ... IFT-13 on 15 January.

Wow, less than 2 weeks? That is not much time for lessons to be learnt and applied to next flight.Even assuming flight 12 goes perfectly so little in the way of lessons to learn and apply: Are you expecting ship 40 and booster 19 to have been static fired before flight 12? If not, is there time to do those static fires and get the full stack ready for flight 13 so quickly?

I am thinking 3 weeks would be very rapid and about what the production rate can keep up with. If they successfully recover boosters with v3 then at some point I can imagine static fires before the previous flight will happen but for flight 13 static fire before flight 12, this feels too soon to me.

[DanClemmensen]

Warning: all numbers made up by me with shaky justification.
Two timescales: If everything else is ready, then IFT-12 in early January. They need one Booster and one Ship=39 Raptors, but they need them in time to install them on the Booster and Ship for spin-prime and static fire, so delivery on 1 December: call it 75 days hence. Starting then, the factory begins building another 39 engines for IFT-13. We hope they only need six, but they might miss the Booster catch. IFT-13 on 15 January.

So yes, green lights to Malibu we only need to see Raptor 3 50 at Thanksgiving for IFT-12, not the 100 by Halloween. We need the larger number to allow us outsiders to feel comfortable about the build rate for 2026. IMO SpaceX will need to build five Boosters and maybe 24 Ships in 2026. That's three Boosters for Starbase and two for KSC. 24 Ships because I'm skeptical about Ship recovery and rapid reuse in 2026 and they have a bunch of variants. So: 144 for Ships and 165 for boosters  is 309, minus the 39 for IFT-12 delivered on 1 December is 170 to be delivered from 1 December 2025 and 1 December 2026. That's about one every two days.

>IFT-12 in early January. ... IFT-13 on 15 January.

Wow, less than 2 weeks? That is not much time for lessons to be learnt and applied to next flight.Even assuming flight 12 goes perfectly so little in the way of lessons to learn and apply: Are you expecting ship 40 and booster 19 to have been static fired before flight 12? If not, is there time to do those static fires and get the full stack ready for flight 13 so quickly?

I am thinking 3 weeks would be very rapid and about what the production rate can keep up with. If they successfully recover boosters with v3 then at some point I can imagine static fires before the previous flight will happen but for flight 13 static fire before flight 12, this feels too soon to me.

Yes, my guesstimate is ridiculously fast. The assumption is that Booster 19 and Ship 40 are already fully produced and Ship 40 is static fired, all in December. 19 must be static fired within the week after IFT-12.

However, this set of guesstimates was intended to determine the number of Raptors needed to keep Raptor off the critical path if everything else is perfect. If anything goes wrong with any other element (Pad 2+GSE, Massey's, Ship, Booster) then Raptor is off the critical path if it can meet this crazy schedule.

[crandles57]

Fellow space nerds, a serious question that I hope can generate some useable information from a group response.

Regarding the first flight of a V3 stack, I wanted to ask the opinon of others on when we think that could happen.  Sounds like SpaceX is already targeting 2026.  But can we do better and come up with an idea of when in 26?

I see there being 4 things needed:
0) Massey's back on line for cryo and static fire
1) Pad 2 being ready
2) 39 flight ready Raptor V3's
3) Booster 18
4) Ship 39

What are estimates from others on when each of these could be ready?   My guesses are:
0) Nov 25
1) Dec 25
2) Jan 26
3) Nov 25 to Massey's Jan 26 for Static fire
4) Nov 25 for Massey's cryo, Jan for Massey's Static Fire

First V3 flight, February 2026.

After flight 12 then I expect a stack of vehicles to be ready each month (If Raptor V3 allows)

It seems to me like they are not yet stacking ship 39 other than nose cone on payload section. I would guess they are waiting on TT18.X test results. B18 build possibly also stalled for same reason? Could be late September before they start stacking in earnest and for first version 3, a couple of months build time before they are ready for pressure and cryotests seems likely to be necessary.

Massey's should easily be ready for this by then and I doubt there will be much v3 commissioning time for this. Then will need a month before ship is ready to be static fired which will be December gone. Commissioning static fire stand at Masseys might be a little longer than a typical static fire period (I am guessing they will need a ship to do that commissioning) and a couple of weeks after that ship 39 might be ready for launch.

Late January for flight 12 launch seems rather optimistic, February or later more likely for flight 12.

For B18 and commissioning launch pad, I am even less sure of times involved but maybe ready in similar total timeframe.

I think they will want to see how flight 12 goes and leave some of the build work on ship 40 and booster 19 until after that flight so 6-8 weeks between flight 12 and flight 13 would not surprise me before gaps between launches reduce to more like 3 weeks after that if there are no mishap investigations.

I am probably miles out on my guesstimated times. (There seemed quite a few people suggesting a month for Masseys to be back up and running while I was cautioning 4 months might be needed, but this could easily just be a fluke and this time it could be me that is miles out here.) Do fee free to suggest where I am getting the timings wrong.

[MrEdfromTX]

What is the best guess we have for the next Starship 11 launch?  Do we expect something before Haloween?  Will that give them enough time to incorporate the heat tile upgrades?

[xvel]

What is the best guess we have for the next Starship 11 launch?  Do we expect something before Haloween?  Will that give them enough time to incorporate the heat tile upgrades?

If nothing explodes it will be way before november, booster is already static fired and OLM conversion for ship static fire is underway and they are working fast. Heat shield modification if needed and not yet done will be fast. A year ago, the entire heat shield on S30 was replaced within a month if I remember correctly, likely now they can do it even faster if needed. For me it looks like flight 11 could be early october.

[crandles57]

Not that it is new but

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2025/09/flight-11-booster-15-ship-38/

This confirms that Block 3 won’t fly until next year, which was expected, given the current state of all the components. It also confirms that Flight 11 will be suborbital as well as Flight 12 to test the new designs.

[meekGee]

Not that it is new but

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2025/09/flight-11-booster-15-ship-38/

This confirms that Block 3 won’t fly until next year, which was expected, given the current state of all the components. It also confirms that Flight 11 will be suborbital as well as Flight 12 to test the new designs.

We discussed that quote "Next year, we step up to another version of both ship and booster, called V3", given by none other than the guy in charge of "Build and Flight Reliability" - exactly the last guy to give aggressive timelines, especially after the v2 debacles that happened under his watch. He might be on thin ice here, depending on internal dynamics.

Also, he's characterizing the timeline in whole years.  His statement is perfectly compatible with a December launch.

That said, I will be pleasantly surprised if December happens. It's very aggressive  and I'm keeping an eye on engine production too.

But this quote is not a confirmation of no December launch or launch attempt.

[catdlr]

Starship Gazer@StarshipGazer
·
The next gen Version 3 Super Heavy Booster forward section test tank 18.3 has rolled out of megabay 1 this morning likely for cryogenic structural proof testing at Massey's test site.

9/16/25

https://twitter.com/StarshipGazer/status/1967935728731705581

[catdlr]

Zack Golden@CSI_Starbase
Interesting new tank rolled out of the Starfactory today.

Too early to tell for sure, but this looks like it could potentially be a propellant storage tank for the Tanker Variant of Starship.

Any other ideas??

https://twitter.com/CSI_Starbase/status/1968013425398911459

[catdlr]

Tank into MB-1

Zack Golden@CSI_Starbase

The mystery tank has now gone into Megabay 1, which makes it a lot less likely that it's related to orbital propellant transfer hardware.

This may end up being a component of Booster 18 or another test tank that has yet to roll out of Starfactory.

https://twitter.com/CSI_Starbase/status/1968043422314615090

[Dave G]

The V2 hot staging ring covers up an area on one side to control the the direction of the booster flip at staging (first image).

How will this work with the new V3 integrated staging ring? (second image)

Are they no longer going to attempt controlling the direction of the booster flip at staging ?

[catdlr]

The V2 hot staging ring covers up an area on one side to control the the direction of the booster flip at staging (first image).

How will this work with the new V3 integrated staging ring? (second image)

Are they no longer going to attempt controlling the direction of the booster flip at staging ?

A combination of Rvac and SL Vac ignition sequence, a change to a rounded top to the interstage dome, and the absence of one of the grid fins. A kind of mixing bowl of solutions. Will it work? The original design for V1 didn't, and the HSA was created. Stay tuned to see what happens when B18 flies.

[Twark_Main]

The V2 hot staging ring covers up an area on one side to control the the direction of the booster flip at staging (first image).

How will this work with the new V3 integrated staging ring? (second image)

Are they no longer going to attempt controlling the direction of the booster flip at staging ?

A combination of Rvac and SL Vac ignition sequence, a change to a rounded top to the interstage dome, and the absence of one of the grid fins. A kind of mixing bowl of solutions. Will it work? The original design for V1 didn't, and the HSA was created. Stay tuned to see what happens when B18 flies.

Uhh, the SH engine gimbals?

"Uncontrolled SH flip" isn't a thing. This isn't some expended booster, it's a launch vehicle firing its engines following a controlled and optimized  trajectory with FTS still active. 0% chance of an uncontrolled flip.

[Dave G]

Uhh, the SH engine gimbals?

"Uncontrolled SH flip" isn't a thing. This isn't some expended booster, it's a launch vehicle firing its engines following a controlled and optimized  trajectory with FTS still active. 0% chance of an uncontrolled flip.

SpaceX said their reason for controlling the initial direction of the flip at staging is to save booster fuel.

If it flips in a random direction, yes, the SH engine gimbals will get it into the proper return flight path, but that seems to consume more fuel than if the initial booster flip at staging is in a specific direction.

[crandles57]

A combination of Rvac and SL Vac ignition sequence, a change to a rounded top to the interstage dome, and the absence of one of the grid fins. A kind of mixing bowl of solutions. Will it work? The original design for V1 didn't, and the HSA was created. Stay tuned to see what happens when B18 flies.

Does "Rvac and SL Vac ignition sequence" include different throttle settings as well as timings? Also maybe different gimbals on the ships SL Vacs?

I guess the more you do here the more the ship starts to veer off course and the more correction is needed?

[meekGee]

The V2 hot staging ring covers up an area on one side to control the the direction of the booster flip at staging (first image).

How will this work with the new V3 integrated staging ring? (second image)

Are they no longer going to attempt controlling the direction of the booster flip at staging ?

A combination of Rvac and SL Vac ignition sequence, a change to a rounded top to the interstage dome, and the absence of one of the grid fins. A kind of mixing bowl of solutions. Will it work? The original design for V1 didn't, and the HSA was created. Stay tuned to see what happens when B18 flies.

Since this interstage is so much more open, I think timing will do it.  Once you have it started in the right direction, the rest is self-amplifying.

[catdlr]

The V2 hot staging ring covers up an area on one side to control the the direction of the booster flip at staging (first image).

How will this work with the new V3 integrated staging ring? (second image)

Are they no longer going to attempt controlling the direction of the booster flip at staging ?

A combination of Rvac and SL Vac ignition sequence, a change to a rounded top to the interstage dome, and the absence of one of the grid fins. A kind of mixing bowl of solutions. Will it work? The original design for V1 didn't, and the HSA was created. Stay tuned to see what happens when B18 flies.

Sorry..That was my last post after 38 hours of awake time on my Caregiving duty....Yes, the SL-Raptors gimbal as well; add a carrot to the soup pot...call me when B18 launches.  And Dave G is correct.

[InterestedEngineer]

The V2 hot staging ring covers up an area on one side to control the the direction of the booster flip at staging (first image).

How will this work with the new V3 integrated staging ring? (second image)

Are they no longer going to attempt controlling the direction of the booster flip at staging ?

A combination of Rvac and SL Vac ignition sequence, a change to a rounded top to the interstage dome, and the absence of one of the grid fins. A kind of mixing bowl of solutions. Will it work? The original design for V1 didn't, and the HSA was created. Stay tuned to see what happens when B18 flies.

I don't think timing will help much.  The two ships remain connected until the acceleration of the Starship exceeds that of the booster.  And the longer they are close the longer the hot blast.  Probably best to light it all up and get away ASAP.

[meekGee]

The V2 hot staging ring covers up an area on one side to control the the direction of the booster flip at staging (first image).

How will this work with the new V3 integrated staging ring? (second image)

Are they no longer going to attempt controlling the direction of the booster flip at staging ?

A combination of Rvac and SL Vac ignition sequence, a change to a rounded top to the interstage dome, and the absence of one of the grid fins. A kind of mixing bowl of solutions. Will it work? The original design for V1 didn't, and the HSA was created. Stay tuned to see what happens when B18 flies.

I don't think timing will help much.  The two ships remain connected until the acceleration of the Starship exceeds that of the booster.  And the longer they are close the longer the hot blast.  Probably best to light it all up and get away ASAP.

Good point.

So gimbal instead of timing? Pull away and gimbal in one direction, impacting one side of the dome preferentially, I like that better.

You need to do the gimbal right away though, so the booster doesn't start to randomly go the wrong way, but luckily it's a cosine/sine law advantage.