What is that large white rectangle in the middle of the quite homogenous heat shield?
While not anywhere near even semi official, we could possibly put some minimum time and best estimate times for several of the stages? I am thinking something like thisWork_____________________________________Min Est_______________Best EstShip timelineComplete ship 39.X test tank testing ??___________???_________________???Stack ship 39_______________________________2 weeks?_____________4 weeks?Further work pre pressure cryo tests_____________1 week?_____________2 weeks?Roll to Massey & back, pressure cryo tests________4 days?______________1-2 weeks?Further build add flaps engines__________________2 weeks?____________4 weeks?Roll to Massey & back, static fire_________________3 days?_____________1 week?Final ship preps______________________________2 weeks?____________3 weeks?Roll to pad, pad ship connections testing__________1 week?_____________2 weeks?Total_______________________________________9 weeks?+___________17-18 weeks?+Booster 18 timelineFinish B18.x test tank testing____________________1 week?_____________??Finish stacking booster_________________________1 week?_____________2 weeks?Further work pre pressure cryo tests______________1 week?_____________2 weeks?Roll to Massey (& back), pressure cryo tests________4 days?_____________1 week?Further build add flaps engines___________________2 week?_____________4 weeks?Roll to pad, Pad testing with booster_______________2 weeks?____________4 weeks?Static fire____________________________________3 days?_____________1 week?Final booster preps_____________________________2 weeks?____________3 weeks?Roll to pad, stack ship and launch__________________1 week?____________2 weeks?Total_________________________________________11 weeks?__________20+ weeks?I feel like I am really on the low side for the minimum time estimates above so 11 weeks minimum time and more like 20+ weeks seems to make 2025 launch impossible and more like March 2026 or later? No doubt different people with different knowledge would put in different estimates. Is this miles off?Edit to add:Raptor Timeline39 Raptors needed. While numbers in 30s have been seen many may have been tested to destruction and they may still be tweaking design so none may be flight ready yet.At the optimistic end, they may shortly be finished tweaking and optimising design and may be able to quickly ramp up to a production rate of 3 per week so perhaps as little as 14 weeks?Less optimistically, there may be another month or two of design tweaking and then there may be a slow ramp up in production rate and there could also further time to figure out what testing should be done on the final design version and getting that testing done.So while Raptor 3 engine could be a constraint on when flight 12 happens, I am not sure we have much detail to constrain when flight 12 will be from this.Masseys timelinePressure and cryo site locations are looking near complete - may need some testing with vehicles present.Pressure and cryo tests on booster and ship to do.Static fire location perhaps approaching completion?Ship transport stand (crab) may need adapting to v3? or replaced?Static fire will need testing - probably some testing without a ship present then testing with a ship presentStatic fireSeveral things to do, but I am not seeing these taking long enough to be a constraint on when flight 12 occurs other than as part of booster or ship timeline.Pad TimelineThe pad and GSE is beginning to look more like approaching completion but there is doubtless lots still to do:Ship quick disconnect hasn't been attached to tower yet, needs to be attached with power & supply lines to quick disconnect plate.High pressure lines all the way to pad may not be completed yet?Testing those supply lines and valves to and at pad and tower without booster or ship.Test chopstick lift of booster and stacking on pad.Testing connections to and supplies to booster. (propellants, Nitrogen, CO2?, electrical, ...)Test chopstick lift of ship and stacking on boosterTesting connections to and supplies to ship. (propellants, Nitrogen, CO2?, electrical, ...)Testing v3 booster and ship loading procedures.Launch wet dress rehearsal.Lots to do at pad but it seems to me like the pad could well be waiting for booster and ship to be ready for some of the work so the better time constraints come from the booster and ship timelines. However other people may feel more able to add more items and put time estimates on the Masseys, pad and raptor timelines than I feel able to do. Do feel free to suggest extra items or timescales to improve this timescale list of things to do.
...Not much data on how my best est times are doing but what there is suggests I was optimistic. So 17 remaining weeks could be optimistic and even if it is about right that is ~mid March.
MattZ@wvmattzMoments ago, Ship 39 was lifted, revealing five newly installed transfer tubes! A short while later, it was set back down on a short stand in the front area of MB2!
StarbaseTracking@TrackingTheSBShip 39's aft dome has rolled out of Starfactory!This is the final barrel section for Ship 39.
MattZ@wvmattzShip 39’s aft section (the last piece to be stacked) was moved into MB2 and connected to the rest of the ship. We saw it lift just moments before SpaceX closed the bay door. The next time we see S39, it’s likely to be fully stacked.
NSF - NASASpaceflight.com@NASASpaceflightBooster 18 is outside.Dedicated live commentary will be here when rolling to Masseys:
SpaceX@SpaceXBooster 18, the first Super Heavy V3, is beginning prelaunch testing. The first operations will test the booster's redesigned propellant systems and its structural strength
Cyberguru@CyberguruG8073·9mStarship Hardware Diagram (2025-11-16 - 2025-11-21)RIP To Booster 18Significant ChangesB21 AFT Spotted (No longer Speculative)S41 Receives a FWD FlapS42 Receives Pyron AblativeB19-20 AFT Should Exist Since B21 AFT@NASASpaceflight For Spotting The Hardware@TrackingTheSB
SpaceX@SpaceXThe Starbase team plans to have the next Super Heavy booster stacked in December, which puts it on pace with the test schedule planned for the first Starship V3 vehicle and associated ground systems. Starship’s twelfth flight test remains targeted for the first quarter of 2026.9:43 AM · Nov 22, 2025·
The Starbase team plans to have the next Super Heavy booster stacked in December, which puts it on pace with the test schedule planned for the first Starship V3 vehicle and associated ground systems. Starship’s twelfth flight test remains targeted for the first quarter of 2026.
Quote from: crandles57 on 11/21/2025 08:14 pmQuote from: Robotbeat on 11/21/2025 05:45 pmQuote from: xvel on 11/21/2025 03:58 pmWe don't really know what realistic timeline was before that, but it was no earlier than january, add no less than two months to that and you have an answer.I don’t agree this necessarily adds 2 full months. They were probably intending to fly just 1-2 months after this anyway, and that’s a full 2 stages (this stage failed during initial testing, before engines were placed and before fully proofed, and only the first stage). Maybe 1 month. End of February is possible, but could be March or something.Good point re intending to fly next starship, but they may have been hoping to get Booster 18 back to fly ship 40 and if they didn't get it back then maybe it is likely there is some issue that would cause a delay anyway?Booster 18 stacking dates:SpaceX Starship Booster 18's stacking officially commenced on May 19, 2025, with the full stacking process, combining the liquid oxygen and methane tanks, concluding on November 5, 2025?Booster 19 hasn't started stacking yet?Based on that Booster 19 might be 6 month behind booster 18 however it seems likely stacking process was held up waiting for B18.X testing and they can do it faster a second time. So I wouldn't assume it is a 5 month delay but 1 month might be very optimistic.I was expecting late March to be earliest date for flight 12 to become likely using booster 18 so I am thinking May, June or possibly even July using booster 19. i.e. 2, 3 or 4 months later.B18 took longer to stack since it was the first V3, B19 should be closer to the 2-3 months V2 boosters took to stack, and eventually it should be further reduced.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 11/21/2025 05:45 pmQuote from: xvel on 11/21/2025 03:58 pmWe don't really know what realistic timeline was before that, but it was no earlier than january, add no less than two months to that and you have an answer.I don’t agree this necessarily adds 2 full months. They were probably intending to fly just 1-2 months after this anyway, and that’s a full 2 stages (this stage failed during initial testing, before engines were placed and before fully proofed, and only the first stage). Maybe 1 month. End of February is possible, but could be March or something.Good point re intending to fly next starship, but they may have been hoping to get Booster 18 back to fly ship 40 and if they didn't get it back then maybe it is likely there is some issue that would cause a delay anyway?Booster 18 stacking dates:SpaceX Starship Booster 18's stacking officially commenced on May 19, 2025, with the full stacking process, combining the liquid oxygen and methane tanks, concluding on November 5, 2025?Booster 19 hasn't started stacking yet?Based on that Booster 19 might be 6 month behind booster 18 however it seems likely stacking process was held up waiting for B18.X testing and they can do it faster a second time. So I wouldn't assume it is a 5 month delay but 1 month might be very optimistic.I was expecting late March to be earliest date for flight 12 to become likely using booster 18 so I am thinking May, June or possibly even July using booster 19. i.e. 2, 3 or 4 months later.
Quote from: xvel on 11/21/2025 03:58 pmWe don't really know what realistic timeline was before that, but it was no earlier than january, add no less than two months to that and you have an answer.I don’t agree this necessarily adds 2 full months. They were probably intending to fly just 1-2 months after this anyway, and that’s a full 2 stages (this stage failed during initial testing, before engines were placed and before fully proofed, and only the first stage). Maybe 1 month. End of February is possible, but could be March or something.
We don't really know what realistic timeline was before that, but it was no earlier than january, add no less than two months to that and you have an answer.
SpaceX has posted saying that this basically won't delay things as it wasn't the pacing item. Next booster stacked in December.QuoteThe Starbase team plans to have the next Super Heavy booster stacked in December, which puts it on pace with the test schedule planned for the first Starship V3 vehicle and associated ground systems. Starship’s twelfth flight test remains targeted for the first quarter of 2026.https://x.com/SpaceX/status/1992287913036648577
Quote from: mlindner on 11/22/2025 07:21 pmSpaceX has posted saying that this basically won't delay things as it wasn't the pacing item. Next booster stacked in December.QuoteThe Starbase team plans to have the next Super Heavy booster stacked in December, which puts it on pace with the test schedule planned for the first Starship V3 vehicle and associated ground systems. Starship’s twelfth flight test remains targeted for the first quarter of 2026.https://x.com/SpaceX/status/1992287913036648577Exactly, and if it won't delay things, it may even make things go faster right?Flight 12 was supposed to take place in december, then in january, and now in the first quarter... Stop with copium, this is damage control post by SpaceX, right now, they are in a really bad place pr-wise, and you're seeing it through rose-tinted glasses on top of that, sure delays won't be huge, it's SpaceX after all, but come on, let's not pretend that nothing happened...
Please explain in the area below why an STA is necessary:This STA uses information from previous grant 1124-EX-ST-2025. This STA is necessary to authorize Starship Test Flight 12 vehicle communications launching from Starbase TX. Application includes a sub-orbital first stage booster and a second stage. Trajectory data will be provided directly to NTIA, USAF, and NASA. Launch licensing authority is FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation.
Please explain the purpose of operation: Launch vehicle communications for Test Flight 12 mission launching from Starbase, TX. The first stage booster and the second stage will either return to the launch site or perform a water landing.
Please explain in the area below why an STA is necessary:This STA uses information from previous grant 1395-EX-ST-2025, adding the Starbase Office antenna location and removing the GS9 MegaBay location. STA is necessary to authorize an additional power level for uplink frequencies 2056 MHz and 2062 MHz for the booster and ship on Starship Test Flight 12 launching from Starbase TX. This STA is necessary for Starship Super Heavy vehicle communications at SpaceX facilities located in Boca Chica TX.
Please explain the purpose of operation: Launch vehicle communications for test Starship Test Flight 12 mission launching from Starbase, TX. It is used for a tracking beam.
Please explain in the area below why an STA is necessary:This STA uses information from grant 1536-EX-ST-2025 for high power uplink static beams at the South Padre Island and Starbase Office antenna locations. STA is necessary to authorize a static beam for uplink frequencies 2056 MHz and 2062 MHz for the booster and ship on Starship Test Flight 12 launching from Starbase TX. This STA is necessary for Starship Super Heavy vehicle communications at SpaceX facilities located in Boca Chica TX.
Please explain the purpose of operation: Launch vehicle communications for test Starship Test Flight 12 mission launching from Starbase, TX. It is used for a static beam.
