Soyuz-2.1a - Kosmos-2579 (Bars-M №6) - Plesetsk, 43/4 - 31 October 2024 (07:51:31 UTC)

[B. Hendrickx]

Navigation warnings have appeared for the launch of a Soyuz-2.1a or Soyuz-2.1b into polar orbit.

Impact area for the first-stage strap-on boosters in the southern part of the White Sea:

ПРИП АРХАНГЕЛЬСК 100
КАРТА 91306
ЮЖНАЯ ЧАСТЬ БЕЛОГО МОРЯ
1.   ПУСКИ РАКЕТНЫЕ
31 ОКТ ПО 05 НОЯБ 0700 ДО 0900
РАЙОНЕ ЗАПРЕТНОМ ДЛЯ ПЛАВАНИЯ
66-10.0С 037-10.0В
66-00.0C 038-20.0В
65-30.0С 038-30.0В
65-30.0С 037-30.0В
2. ОТМ ЭТОТ НР 051000 НОЯБ=
251100 МСК ГС-
НННН

Impact area for the payload fairing in the Barents Sea:

NAVAREA XX 158/24
BARENTS SEA.
CHART RUS 10100.
1. ROCKET LAUNCHING 0700 TO 0900 UTC
DAILY 31 OCT TO 05 NOV NAVIGATION
PROHIBITED IN TERRITORIAL WATERS
DANGEROUS OUTSIDE IN AREA BOUNDED BY:
70-56-00N 032-04-58E
70-10-00N 033-40-00E
69-54-00N 032-40-00E
70-08-00N 032-04-58E,
70-15-00N 031-50-00E
70-30-07N 031-50-00E
70-36-22N 031-43-18E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 051000 UTC NOV 24.=
NNNN

No navigation warning yet for the core stage. This should appear soon.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Navigation warnings have appeared for the launch of a Soyuz-2.1a or Soyuz-2.1b into polar orbit.

Impact area for the first-stage strap-on boosters in the southern part of the White Sea:

ПРИП АРХАНГЕЛЬСК 100
КАРТА 91306
ЮЖНАЯ ЧАСТЬ БЕЛОГО МОРЯ
1.   ПУСКИ РАКЕТНЫЕ
31 ОКТ ПО 05 НОЯБ 0700 ДО 0900
РАЙОНЕ ЗАПРЕТНОМ ДЛЯ ПЛАВАНИЯ
66-10.0С 037-10.0В
66-00.0C 038-20.0В
65-30.0С 038-30.0В
65-30.0С 037-30.0В
2. ОТМ ЭТОТ НР 051000 НОЯБ=
251100 МСК ГС-
НННН

Impact area for the payload fairing in the Barents Sea:

NAVAREA XX 158/24
BARENTS SEA.
CHART RUS 10100.
1. ROCKET LAUNCHING 0700 TO 0900 UTC
DAILY 31 OCT TO 05 NOV NAVIGATION
PROHIBITED IN TERRITORIAL WATERS
DANGEROUS OUTSIDE IN AREA BOUNDED BY:
70-56-00N 032-04-58E
70-10-00N 033-40-00E
69-54-00N 032-40-00E
70-08-00N 032-04-58E,
70-15-00N 031-50-00E
70-30-07N 031-50-00E
70-36-22N 031-43-18E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 051000 UTC NOV 24.=
NNNN

No navigation warning yet for the core stage. This should appear soon.

I think the first zone in this NOTAM below is for the core stage:

A5730/24 NOTAMN
Q) ENOB/QRDCA/IV/BO /W /000/999/7540N02149E051
A) ENOB B) 2410310700 C) 2411050900
D) DAILY 0700-0900
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA 'RUS SPACE LAUNCH AREA OCT24' ACTIVATED. PSN
763000N 0220000E - 752000N 0244000E - 745000N 0214000E - 755000N
0184000E - (763000N 0220000E). IMPACT AREA FOR RUSSIAN MISSILES.
SIMILAR ACTIVITIES ARE ALSO PLANNED WITHIN THE UNALLOCATED
INTERNATIONAL AIRSPACE IN PSN 705600N 0320500E - 701000N 0320500E -
700928N 0320152E - 701500N 0315000E - 703007N 0315000E - 703622N
0314318E - (705600N 0320500E)
F) GND G) UNL

[owais.usmani]

And what is the payload?

[Alter Sachse]

And what is the payload?

We don't know.
And those who do know don't tell us.

[Alter Sachse]

Launches in recent years:
Bars M           97.6° Soyuz 2.1a
Cosmos 2572 96.6° Soyuz 2.1b
Cosmos 2576 97.3° Soyuz 2.1b

[B. Hendrickx]

I think the first zone in this NOTAM below is for the core stage:

A5730/24 NOTAMN
Q) ENOB/QRDCA/IV/BO /W /000/999/7540N02149E051
A) ENOB B) 2410310700 C) 2411050900
D) DAILY 0700-0900
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA 'RUS SPACE LAUNCH AREA OCT24' ACTIVATED. PSN
763000N 0220000E - 752000N 0244000E - 745000N 0214000E - 755000N
0184000E - (763000N 0220000E). IMPACT AREA FOR RUSSIAN MISSILES.

Yes, that's right. Those are the standard coordinates for Soyuz-2.1a/1b core stage impact.

As for possible payloads, these are the usual suspects for launches into polar orbit:

- Bars-M: the topographic mapping satellites of RKTs Progress.  N° 6 is still due for launch. This may be placed into the same orbital plane as N°4 (Kosmos-2567). As far as I can see, this should be possible during the announced window. Likewise, N°3 and N°5 (Kosmos-2556 and 2573) share the same orbital plane, so they may be aiming for two pairs of satellites in two different orbital planes.

- Razbeg: these small optical reconnaissance satellites of VNIIEM are compatible with several launch vehicles, including the Soyuz-2.1a and 2.1b with the Fregat upper stage. As I have mentioned earlier, there are some indications that a trio of such satellites is planned to be launched on a Soyuz-2/Fregat. As is known from an environmental impact report, the Soyuz-2 third stage would enter orbit in that scenario. That does seem to be the plan for this mission, because no navigation warnings have so far been issued for third stage impact in the Pacific. Such a warning was issued for last May's Soyuz-2/Fregat launch to polar orbit, which carried Kosmos-2576 (probably a Nivelir inspection satellite) and multiple smaller payloads. 

- Razdan: the big optical reconnaissance satellite of RKTs Progress. Somewhat unlikely, because an environmental impact assessment of its launch from Plesetsk still seems to be underway and is not expected to be finished until November 30. See here:
https://o-v-o-s.ru/29/36753

That is all I can say right now. It may, of course, be something different altogether.

[satcomopsuk]

From Inmarsat downlink

[satcomopsuk]

Is this related ?

[B. Hendrickx]

Is this related ?

Most likely not. The long launch window is not typical of a space launch. There have been two identical navigation warnings earlier this month and in July. Probably some kind of missile test.

- Razdan: the big optical reconnaissance satellite of RKTs Progress. Somewhat unlikely, because an environmental impact assessment of its launch from Plesetsk still seems to be underway and is not expected to be finished until November 30. See here:
https://o-v-o-s.ru/29/36753

One other possible payload for the upcoming launch is a satellite similar to Kosmos-2572, launched into polar orbit by a Soyuz-2.1b last November. The first indications were that this was Razdan, but there are at least two reasons to believe it is another type of satellite. First, as mentioned in the earlier post, a study of the environmental impact of the Razdan launch from Plesetsk still appears to be underway and, second, documentation related to that study identified the payload fairing for the Razdan launch as 14S748, which is much bigger than the 17S13A7 fairing used for the launch of Kosmos-2572.

For several months on end now, Kosmos-2572 has been performing almost daily orbit corrections to maintain a slightly elliptical orbit with an average altitude of around 300 km. Its orbit strongly suggests it is an optical reconnaissance satellite, but it cannot yet be linked to any known project.

[satcomopsuk]

Most likely not. The long launch window is not typical of a space launch. There have been two identical navigation warnings earlier this month and in July. Probably some kind of missile test.

Thanks Bart.

[B. Hendrickx]

https://tass.ru/kosmos/22277959

Launch took place at 10.51 Moscow time (7.51 UTC). A Soyuz-2.1a with a single satellite on board.

[Salo]

https://t.me/mod_russia/45178
Google translate:

Aerospace Forces successfully launched
Soyuz-2.1a launch vehicle from Plesetsk Cosmodrome

On Thursday, October 31, at 10:51 am (Moscow time) from the State Test Cosmodrome of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation (Plesetsk Cosmodrome) in the Arkhangelsk Region, a combat crew of the Aerospace Forces space forces successfully launched a Soyuz-2.1a medium-class launch vehicle with a spacecraft in the interests of the Russian Ministry of Defense.

[B. Hendrickx]

This is consistent with the payload being Bars-M nr. 6.

[Alter Sachse]

Kosmos 2579
07:51:31 UTC

[B. Hendrickx]

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/22280125

The Ministry of Defense confirms that the satellite has been placed into the intended orbit and that communications have been established with it.

[B. Hendrickx]

Video of the launch on Zvezda TV:

https://tvzvezda.ru/news/202410311538-jtawJ.html

The use of the small payload fairing is also consistent with this being a Bars-M launch, but we'll have to wait for US tracking data to confirm that this is indeed the payload.

[input~2]

OBJECT_ID    "2024-197A"
EPOCH    "2024-10-31T11:04:13.307232"
INCLINATION    "97.5693"
NORAD_CAT_ID    "61730"
APOAPSIS    "497.930"
PERIAPSIS    "338.440"

OBJECT_ID   "2024-197B"
EPOCH   "2024-10-31T11:06:40.980384"
INCLINATION   "97.5656"
NORAD_CAT_ID   "61731"
APOAPSIS    "492.766"
PERIAPSIS   "337.879"

[Alter Sachse]

Bars M 4 and Bars M 5
initial orbit
338x499 km

so it should be a Bars

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Video of the launch on Zvezda TV:

https://tvzvezda.ru/news/202410311538-jtawJ.html

The use of the small payload fairing is also consistent with this being a Bars-M launch, but we'll have to wait for US tracking data to confirm that this is indeed the payload.

Triangular based lightning towers = Site 43/4

[Alter Sachse]

snapshots