Author Topic: The Way Too Early IFT-6 Predictions Thread  (Read 20591 times)

Online ThatOldJanxSpirit

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Re: The Way Too Early IFT-6 Predictions Thread
« Reply #40 on: 10/25/2024 04:38 pm »
The pez dispenser loader move to Sanchez and the flurry of engine relight tests at McGreggor has changed my mind. I’m going all in on a full orbital test flight with a pez dispenser test with dummy Starlinks.

IIP will be the same as flight 5 with a flight director call prior to the insertion burn. Ship splash landing will be in a previously approved location.
« Last Edit: 10/25/2024 04:41 pm by ThatOldJanxSpirit »

Offline Douglas59

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Re: The Way Too Early IFT-6 Predictions Thread
« Reply #41 on: 10/25/2024 11:00 pm »
A recent TechCrunch article discussed some more reasons for doing IFT6, in the class of things that didn't go as planned, but were not so visible. There are very likely plenty of those  that we don't know about, except for maybe inadvertent disclosures like those described in the article. A 2nd pass test using the same flight profile will allow that list of risks and issues to be whittled down significantly prior to the first V2 flight.

“I want to be really upfront about scary shit that happened,” the unnamed engineer said, seemingly as Musk played Diablo IV. He went on to explain that a misconfigured component didn’t have the right “ramp up time for bringing up spin pressure” on the booster.

“We were one second away from that tripping and telling the rocket to abort and try to crash into the ground next to the tower,” the engineer says.


https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/25/yikes-while-gaming-musk-inadvertently-broadcasts-scary-near-abort-of-starship-booster-landing/

So yeah. IFT6 as soon as they can get the list of near misses defined and mitigated, as well as vacuum relight and further pez testing.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: The Way Too Early IFT-6 Predictions Thread
« Reply #42 on: 10/26/2024 01:08 am »
Very little predictions in this prediction thread.

I'm betting on Nov 6
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline Douglas59

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Re: The Way Too Early IFT-6 Predictions Thread
« Reply #43 on: 10/26/2024 05:03 pm »
Adding a date prediction.

IFT4 was Jun 6th. SpaceX said the vehicles were ready for IFT5 pending regulatory approval in early August (8th?). This was about a 2 month interval (9 wks?), but had lots of work on the heat shield. Assume a 1/3 faster turnaround, because testing and improving shorter turnarounds is a goal as well as the vehicle testing and there is supposedly less major work to do. That would be about 6 weeks, which would be late November (6 wks from Oct 13th is Nov 24th).

Since Thanksgiving is the 28th, they will probably avoid that date and either side of it. This argues for Nov 21 - 25 or Dec 2 - 5. I will guess Nov 25th.
« Last Edit: 10/26/2024 05:05 pm by Douglas59 »

Offline magnemoe

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Re: The Way Too Early IFT-6 Predictions Thread
« Reply #44 on: 10/26/2024 07:43 pm »
The pez dispenser loader move to Sanchez and the flurry of engine relight tests at McGreggor has changed my mind. I’m going all in on a full orbital test flight with a pez dispenser test with dummy Starlinks.

IIP will be the same as flight 5 with a flight director call prior to the insertion burn. Ship splash landing will be in a previously approved location.
My take is multiple short and perhaps couple longer orbital burns where the longer is shortly before reentry as effect on splashdown point will be much smaller. 7 will be be the orbital one, and yes they might test the dispenser.
They probably want to be suborbital to some degree to test the dispenser even if the boilerplate is just an weight and shape fit to verify the mechanism is space.
Yes its just an plate dispenser but they uses gravity.

Offline Lemurion

Re: The Way Too Early IFT-6 Predictions Thread
« Reply #45 on: 10/26/2024 10:02 pm »
(snip)

What is the benefit of a test to relight the Raptor engines in orbit? Nobody has ever considered this even being an issue on any other rocket. Superheavy has relit individual Raptor engines in space dozens of times. The Starship has relit its engines in performing the flip maneuver during the last two flights.


The thing to remember is that Starship is a very large upper stage that is designed to survive re-entry. If another upper stage doesn't perform a successful de-orbit burn it will simply burn up in the atmosphere somewhere else. Starship, on the other hand, is more like Mir--in fact, Starship with 2.5% propellant remaining is almost exactly the same mass as the Mir station according to Wikipedia. That means SpaceX has to ensure that the de-orbit burn's ignition time, duration, and thrust are exactly as predicted: especially since the eventual plan is to land the thing at Boca Chica. The requirements are more stringent because the risks are greater.

Offline dondar

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Re: The Way Too Early IFT-6 Predictions Thread
« Reply #46 on: 10/27/2024 02:54 pm »
I would expect some Sunday in late november, (17 or 24).
For a Booster they should do  relight in flight, if successful they could perform landing in Australian shore waters.
 For a booster "the same old" but better. See heatshield heating mitigation, deformation of nozzles, as it was mentioned in the "leaked" debriefing  they need to clean approach protocols etc. etc. etc.

Offline Eka

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Re: The Way Too Early IFT-6 Predictions Thread
« Reply #47 on: 10/27/2024 06:31 pm »
IFT-6 launch Nov 8-10 or 15-17 seams most likely to me right now. Weekends to get away from construction during the week. I suppose it could happen as soon as Nov 1-3 But I read too much hesitation. Staying away from Thanksgiving trips by employees is highly likely.
We talk about creating a Star Trek future, but will end up with The Expanse if radical change doesn't happen.

Tags: Starship ift6 SpaceX 
 

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