Quote from: leovinus on 11/13/2023 07:00 pmPS: Probably a good idea if someone can download a copy of the archived YouTube stream and discussion and attach here on this thread for posterity. Am in the middle of a move and do not have the resources to do it myself.leovinus,I have downloaded a copy for my archives. I've requested permission to post on this thread. Chris B. usually doesn't allow that if it's on YouTube because it costs NSF storage to maintain a copy. But I do know from experience that many old NSF threads, with YouTube posts, are no longer available (i.e., broken links) because some YouTube channels have been deleted or disappeared for copyright issues, etc. Once I get authorization, I'll post in this thread. It's 1.9GB. (3hr55m) at 1080P. I may have to split it up into one-hour segments. I will also upload a copy to my own YouTube Channel for another archive location. Best,Tony
PS: Probably a good idea if someone can download a copy of the archived YouTube stream and discussion and attach here on this thread for posterity. Am in the middle of a move and do not have the resources to do it myself.
Quote from: leovinus on 11/13/2023 07:00 pmPS: Probably a good idea if someone can download a copy of the archived YouTube stream and discussion and attach here on this thread for posterity. Am in the middle of a move and do not have the resources to do it myself.We can't reupload content from youtube channel. No one ever do that please.
I know back then, Downix, I believe that was his forum name, came up with an idea for AJAX. This would have used Atlas V's boosters instead of solids on the core. He had it figured from 2 to 8 Atlas V's on the core to dial up the payloads.
Could Direct have worked with 4 strap on Falcon 9's after F9 became operational? This would have made it less costly to operate.<snip>
Yes, I forgot that FH is almost a direct competitor to the vanilla version of Direct. FH with a 5.5m upper stage and a smaller thrust Raptor could get probably 70+ tons to LEO. Probably at a lower cost. Direct was a quicker and more simple solution than Ares I and V and would have cost a lot less to develop. We would already have a cis-lunar program if it was developed using existing 4 segment solids and existing SSME's. No new development costs for solids or RS-25's. Same size tankage as shuttle just reinforced to carry an upper stage or Orion. Existing Delta IV upper stage could have been used for an upper stage. Lots of ifs and inches.
Don't forget that Falcon 9 only flew for the very first time one year before DIRECT *finished* and only flew twice in total while DIRECT was still running.
Quote from: kraisee on 11/14/2023 09:01 pmDon't forget that Falcon 9 only flew for the very first time one year before DIRECT *finished* and only flew twice in total while DIRECT was still running.A rational government in ~2011 would indeed not have bet the human spaceflight program solely on SpaceX given their then-lousy record. Instead a rational government would have invested in several 40+ tonnes to LEO commercial vehicles e.g. Falcon Heavy and an upgraded Atlas and designed the human spaceflight program around them. However Ross may be right that rational government would not have been politically feasible.
Quote from: deltaV on 11/14/2023 09:43 pmQuote from: kraisee on 11/14/2023 09:01 pmDon't forget that Falcon 9 only flew for the very first time one year before DIRECT *finished* and only flew twice in total while DIRECT was still running.A rational government in ~2011 would indeed not have bet the human spaceflight program solely on SpaceX given their then-lousy record. Instead a rational government would have invested in several 40+ tonnes to LEO commercial vehicles e.g. Falcon Heavy and an upgraded Atlas and designed the human spaceflight program around them. However Ross may be right that rational government would not have been politically feasible.Depends on your measure of "rational".- Is it rational to plan the next 20+ years of the national human spaceflight program, using a rocket from a company that in 2011 had only demonstrated a 57% success rate (3 failures, 4 successes) and who were still many years away from flying a Heavy configuration, and were frankly only talking about a Heavy at the time, and were still a ways from getting seriously into the process of designing it?- Is it irrational for a Senator to fight for more money and jobs in the district where they were elected to do precisely that?- Is it irrational to depend on contractors who have been delivering good products for decades instead of looking at yet-another-upstart company that may or may not make it? And remember there were a vast number of such companies that littered the landscape prior to SpaceX coming on the scene - there were probably 100+ startups that tried and failed before SpaceX actually made it, they were utterly unique in that regard, nobody else had succeeded. To name but a few; Beal, Kisler, Amroc, Pioneer, Rotary, EER, Pacific American, Kelly, Universal Spacelines, Space Transportation Corp. - all had flared briefly only to fizzle to nothing. Honestly, there were few people - at that time in the early 2000's - who genuinely thought SpaceX would be any different.- Is it irrational to choose to give contracts to all of the contractors who have been dedicated to the program for all those decades, instead of just selecting a few and slamming the door on the rest? (I'm specifically talking about excluding ATK by choosing to go with Boeing/LM Heavy EELV's exclusively)At the time of this decision making process, SpaceX simply hadn't yet accomplished enough to be in the running. Any notion of them being involved, is based purely on a false perspective that you only get years further down the timeline, after things had started to change and SpaceX had been given the time necessary to demonstrate what they could ultimately achieve. I personally don't think that general perspective really "switched" until they started trying to land boosters with the first F9 v1.1 in September 2013 - That's when the whole industry really started to pay attention - and that was still two years into the future, compared to the final events of this thread.The politics of the time (2006-2011) were firmly - nay, strictly - aligned behind ATK, Boeing and LM ... Period.Any proposal that didn't focus on those three was simply dead before anyone even looked at the shiny brochures. Sorry to be blunt, but that's the unvarnished truth of the political landscape at that time. The various Senators and Congress-people who were in charge of the purse strings for NASA's budget at that time wanted the program setup that way because it benefited their own districts, and thus their own reelection hopes. As a result, no project that didn't fit that model, would get even a second glance.Ross.
At the time, I thought the DIRECT team to be brave, passionate engineers that fought to make a better value launcher. Nothing has changed that opinion over the years. What I could use help in understanding is the difference in flight rate between STS and SLS. The budgets are similar, each STS flight needed a new core tank and 2 solids which is the same as SLS. Would DIRECT have allowed for 6 flights a year instead of 1 every 2 years?
Quote from: Todd Martin on 11/16/2023 04:56 pmAt the time, I thought the DIRECT team to be brave, passionate engineers that fought to make a better value launcher. Nothing has changed that opinion over the years. What I could use help in understanding is the difference in flight rate between STS and SLS. The budgets are similar, each STS flight needed a new core tank and 2 solids which is the same as SLS. Would DIRECT have allowed for 6 flights a year instead of 1 every 2 years?The SLS core stage contains all of the legacy shuttle MPS (for 4 engines not 3) and all of the avionics boxes. The core stage is like the ET and orbiter combined, much more complex than the ET by itself. The answer to your question is no.
Quote from: aperh1988 on 11/16/2023 06:56 pmQuote from: Todd Martin on 11/16/2023 04:56 pmAt the time, I thought the DIRECT team to be brave, passionate engineers that fought to make a better value launcher. Nothing has changed that opinion over the years. What I could use help in understanding is the difference in flight rate between STS and SLS. The budgets are similar, each STS flight needed a new core tank and 2 solids which is the same as SLS. Would DIRECT have allowed for 6 flights a year instead of 1 every 2 years?The SLS core stage contains all of the legacy shuttle MPS (for 4 engines not 3) and all of the avionics boxes. The core stage is like the ET and orbiter combined, much more complex than the ET by itself. The answer to your question is no.Also there is no commonality between the old ET and the SLS core in how they were manufactured. The SLS is basically a new rocket design with rebuild RS-25 engines and upgraded solid boosters.
We were always aiming for around 12-15 launches every year. 12 Exploration launches and two ISS crew/resupply missions. There could have been extras as the infrastructure was designed to support well over 20 cores every year before needing sigificant expansion.
QuoteWe were always aiming for around 12-15 launches every year. 12 Exploration launches and two ISS crew/resupply missions. There could have been extras as the infrastructure was designed to support well over 20 cores every year before needing sigificant expansion. Interesting to compare that with Shuttle flight rates. 24 a year was the revised goal, before Challenger (from "once a week", 52 per year or even 60, "one flight every six days"). They achieved 10 consecutive flights over 1985-86, ending with the disaster. According to Mike Mullane, they were heading into the wall even before STS-51L. Post Challenger the record of flight per year was in 1996, with 8 missions. So I presume DIRECT could do better because there was no more shuttle orbiter to refurbish ?
Chuck and I are going to discuss a possible book later this week. Far too early to promise anything on that front, but we're going to talk and see where it leads us.Obviously, we'll bring Philip and Steve in to the conversation too, but if any of the other members of DIRECT - either public or private side - would be at all interested in contributing to such an effort, please do drop me a line.If such a project really does goes ahead, I'll mention it here on NSF.Ross.