Author Topic: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5  (Read 393493 times)


Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #1601 on: 11/13/2024 02:05 am »
https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1856522880143745133

As always, it is up to Congress to determine the fate of the SLS, not whoever the President is, or who the President employs.

However if Congress does agree, and as of October 1st of 2025 the SLS program is cancelled, then I'm not sure I see a path to getting Americans back on the Moon during the Trump II term in office.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #1602 on: 11/13/2024 02:27 am »
However if Congress does agree, and as of October 1st of 2025 the SLS program is cancelled, then I'm not sure I see a path to getting Americans back on the Moon during the Trump II term in office.
If Artemis III with SLS/Orion could have worked by 2028, then a pure SpaceX mission can work in the same timeframe, with no additional hardware design. If you try to salvage Orion you will need new hardware design to launch it on top of a different LV and indeed you cannot get there by 2028. If you use SpaceX hardware to get four crew to NRHO and back, you can complete the mission without SLS or Orion.

The plan: Dragon for Earth to LEO and back, refueled Starship from LEO to NRHO and back, and HLS Option A from NRHO to lunar surface and back. You use a second instance of the HLS Starship for the LEO-NRHO leg. It's not the optimal hardware for this. It's gross overkill, but it will be designed and working. See:
   https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=59662.0
« Last Edit: 11/13/2024 02:31 am by DanClemmensen »

Offline deltaV

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #1603 on: 11/13/2024 02:43 am »
https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1856538263915225194
Quote from: Eric Berger
My sense is that the solution would be launching Orion on one rocket (probably FH, from 39A) and then docking with a (separately launched) Centaur V and boosting it to the Moon.
« Last Edit: 11/13/2024 02:48 am by deltaV »

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #1604 on: 11/13/2024 02:45 am »
However if Congress does agree, and as of October 1st of 2025 the SLS program is cancelled, then I'm not sure I see a path to getting Americans back on the Moon during the Trump II term in office.
If Artemis III with SLS/Orion could have worked by 2028...

I'm not sure there was a high chance of that happening in any case, considering everything that has to come together within that timeframe. And I'm not even including what SpaceX has to do with their Human Landing System (HLS) to be ready for that mission.

Quote
...then a pure SpaceX mission can work in the same timeframe, with no additional hardware design.

Well of course there would have to be new hardware, though this isn't the thread to discuss such theoretical situations.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #1605 on: 11/13/2024 03:10 am »
Well of course there would have to be new hardware, though this isn't the thread to discuss such theoretical situations.
No new hardware design other than what's already needed for Artemis III, and I included a link to the thread in which it is discussed.
     https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=59662.0

Offline thespacecow

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #1606 on: 11/13/2024 04:35 am »
If you try to salvage Orion you will need new hardware design to launch it on top of a different LV and indeed you cannot get there by 2028.

A LV adapter doesn't need 4 years to design and build. SpaceX was able to design a new dispenser for OneWeb in 2 months.

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #1607 on: 11/13/2024 04:57 am »
If you try to salvage Orion you will need new hardware design to launch it on top of a different LV and indeed you cannot get there by 2028.

A LV adapter doesn't need 4 years to design and build. SpaceX was able to design a new dispenser for OneWeb in 2 months.
Coastal Ron does not think alternative architectures belong here, so perhaps we can shift over to:
     https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=57960.0
or anywhere else you care to recommend.

Online TheRadicalModerate

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #1608 on: 11/13/2024 06:06 am »
Quote from: Eric Berger
My sense is that the solution would be launching Orion on one rocket (probably FH, from 39A) and then docking with a (separately launched) Centaur V and boosting it to the Moon.

Orion would have to be moved around eyeballs-out (i.e., with the Centaur V docking to its nose), and I'll bet that it's no longer capable of doing that.  At the very least, it's a major effort to get it crew-certified.  You'd have to prove that everything engineered after 2012 had carried forward and tested the eyeballs-out requirement.

If this turns out to be true, I hope that, when NASA chooses the form of the destructor for SLS, it's by putting out a BAA for commercial cislunar crew services, with two slots.  LockMart would have a pretty good chance of having Orion survive if they can find something to put it into TLI, due to dissimilar redundancy.  But F9/D2 + HLS Starship seems like a slam-dunk winner here.

As for Congress resisting this:  If this is a Trump directive, none of SLS's Republican patrons are going to fight it; to do so would be to invite instant ostracism from the party.  Most of them are from the South, so replacing them with some random MAGA hack in the next election is easy and safe.  And the appropriations committee chairs are all going to be reliable Trump allies.
« Last Edit: 11/13/2024 06:06 am by TheRadicalModerate »

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #1609 on: 11/13/2024 06:17 am »
If you try to salvage Orion you will need new hardware design to launch it on top of a different LV and indeed you cannot get there by 2028.

A LV adapter doesn't need 4 years to design and build. SpaceX was able to design a new dispenser for OneWeb in 2 months.
Coastal Ron does not think alternative architectures belong here, so perhaps we can shift over to:
     https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=57960.0
or anywhere else you care to recommend.

Thanks Dan!

I think this thread should continue to show the current Program of Record, which could change in the future, but it is what it is for now. The other thread you link to is for alternative architectures, which should be getting a LOT of attention now.  :D
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline JIS

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #1610 on: 11/13/2024 10:05 am »

Even with political grease a real mishap will slow things down. If SS gets permission to EDL over population for a catch (not guaranteed) everything had better work right. Not much reasonable wiggle room on this. Fumbling a booster catch, a serious oopsy during orbital refueling that blasts shrapnel all over LEO or spewing big chunks back to earth... they say space is hard for a reason.


EDL over populated area will be tricky. Therefore I'm wondering why not to land SS off the west coast on the drone ship? This would allow recovery and subsystem reuse rather than reuse of the whole SS. Still probably a step in good direction.

Shrapnel blast in LEO would probably be bad. On the other side how easy it is to get mathalox explosion in vacuum of space? Also SS is quite tough so don't think a lot of shrapnel would be created (heat shield tiles?) and most would re-enter quickly. Your typical commsat is very fragile and creates a big cloud on explosion. Still a major safety issue.     
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Online catdlr

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #1611 on: 11/13/2024 10:43 am »
A report from NSF's Philip Sloss:  (will be cross-posted in the Space Policy and SLS threads)

What changes could Musk and Trump have planned for Artemis (and SLS) in 2025?


Quote
Nov 12, 2024
NASA could soon be looking at another complication to their lunar landing plans, with the different Artemis Moon to Mars programs up for review by the incoming Trump administration.  The second term promises to be different in many ways, beginning with it being the only non-consecutive one since Presidential term limits were enacted.

More importantly to NASA and Artemis, Elon Musk is advising Trump on the transition and beyond.  Given the implications of the SpaceX founder advising Trump on NASA policy, this video is likely the first episode in what could end up being a big story into and through 2025.

Nothing has happened yet and there are no guaranteed outcomes, but given the personalities involved, it's hard to ignore the possibility of big changes.  For now, I'll take a first look at why one would think Trump and Musk would want to make changes, what happened to five years ago during Trump's first term just as the Artemis branding was announced, some differences between then and now, and how messy drastic changes could get.

Imagery is courtesy of NASA, except where noted.

00:00 Intro
01:57 "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" -- What do Musk and Trump think?
03:45 Different political situation than with the SLS cancellation attempt in Trump's first term
07:46 Current Artemis situation: two halves don't make a whole, not yet
09:40 Potential changes, potential implications, potential complications
14:36 Thanks for watching!

« Last Edit: 11/13/2024 12:43 pm by catdlr »
It's Tony De La Rosa, ...I don't create this stuff, I just report it.

Offline yg1968

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #1612 on: 11/13/2024 02:54 pm »
https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1856522880143745133

As always, it is up to Congress to determine the fate of the SLS, not whoever the President is, or who the President employs.

However if Congress does agree, and as of October 1st of 2025 the SLS program is cancelled, then I'm not sure I see a path to getting Americans back on the Moon during the Trump II term in office.

That is true but it is also unlikely that SLS will be cancelled unless the President proposes it. I don't see Congress proposing cancellation on their own.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #1613 on: 11/13/2024 03:12 pm »
That is true but it is also unlikely that SLS will be cancelled unless the President proposes it. I don't see Congress proposing cancellation on their own.

I don't know anyone that has thought that Congress would cancel the SLS on their own initiative. I mean, 14 years of history shows that they won't...
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline VSECOTSPE

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #1614 on: 11/13/2024 04:35 pm »

NASA Faces Disruptive Presidential Transition

Quote
A key factor will be the influence of Musk, who endorsed Donald Trump during the campaign and has reportedly been advising Trump in the days since the Nov. 5 election. “I do think that the change that he is going to bring to this administration will be like nothing that we have seen before,” said Lori Garver, who served as deputy administrator of NASA during part of the Obama administration. “For those of you who like what has been happening, it’s probably going to change.”

Garver led the Obama transition team for NASA after the 2008 election which famously sparred with NASA leadership, including then-administrator Mike Griffin. “I’m still known as the person who was the most disruptive transition team ever” at NASA, she recalled. “I’m not going to hold that record any more.”

...

Panelists, though, expect Musk to play a role, directly or otherwise, in reshaping NASA in the next administration. “We’ll have a discussion with Elon. He’s earned a seat at the table,” said Scott Pace, director of George Washington University’s Space Policy Institute who served on the NASA transition for the incoming George W. Bush administration.

That could prompt a reconsideration of both approaches like international cooperation as well as specific programs, like the lunar Gateway. “I think international engagement is going to be an important part of the Trump administration because it’s part of larger national interests,” Pace predicted. “There can be different styles to it, different emphases on it, but it’s absolutely going to be central.”

Garver was skeptical. “It is by its nature slow,” she said of international cooperation, “which is the opposite of what these folks have in mind.”

She added that she expected NASA would not be exempt from potential budget cuts, which could lead to a reconsideration of some existing programs of record. “It’s going to be less — and maybe this is wishful thinking on my part — contracts to members of Congress for jobs in their districts,” she said. “I think those guardrails are broken. We do not have these massive senators who have so much power because they’re chairing committees with large contracts in their districts.”

At one point in the discussion, she asked the panel if they thought the Space Launch System and Orion programs would continue in the next administration. None of the panelists raised their hands. “Not as they are,” Pace said.

https://spacenews.com/nasa-faces-disruptive-presidential-transition/

This op-ed is not specific to civil space, but it historically reviews how much influence ultra-wealthy mega-donors had on the incoming presidencies they had supported during the campaign.  Answer:  Very little.

Trump and Musk: The Bromance That Cannot Last

Quote
Andrew Carnegie — who was at the time, just like you, the richest man in the world — was a stalwart and generous contributor to the Republican presidents William McKinley and Theodore Roosevelt. Carnegie naturally assumed that he would, in return for his support and in recognition of his genius and one-on-one relationships with Europe’s elected leaders and crowned heads, be called upon as chief foreign policy adviser when Roosevelt assumed the presidency in 1901, after McKinley’s assassination. As such, he bombarded the White House with his recommendations for arbitration treaties between the major powers, which he believed would usher in a century of peace. His advice was dutifully acknowledged by Roosevelt — then ignored.

And William Randolph Hearst? Mr. Musk, you’ve got your millions of social media followers, but your outreach still pales in comparison with Hearst’s in his heyday: 28 big-city newspapers, a syndicated wire service, radio stations, newsreels and 13 magazines. Hearst’s contributions to Franklin Roosevelt’s 1932 presidential campaign were, like yours to Mr. Trump’s, extensive and varied. In addition to huge financial assistance, Hearst used his media empire to conduct virulent and near-daily assaults on the incumbent, Herbert Hoover.

The day after the election, Hearst’s wife, Millicent, sent a telegram to say that she “had seen Roosevelt last night. He said he was going to telephone you. You are getting all the credit for this victory from everybody I meet.” Hearst responded by forwarding his recommendations for cabinet appointments and an 11-point recovery plan, only to be ghosted by the president-elect: no letters, no telegrams, no phone calls. Almost two months later, Roosevelt finally issued an invitation to Hearst to visit him for private talks. The publisher declined, later producing a feature-length film, based on a novel, in which a guardian angel instructs a weak and unprepared president.

Then there’s Joseph Kennedy, a multimillionaire, who connected the candidate Roosevelt to Hearst, as well as to Hollywood’s most powerful tycoons and to Irish American voters. Identified by The New York Times as a key adviser, Kennedy fully expected to be rewarded with a cabinet post, preferably Treasury secretary. Instead, he wound up commiserating with Hearst over being ghosted by the president-elect. Only in June 1934, more than a year and a half after the election, did Roosevelt finally offer Kennedy a place in his administration — though not in his cabinet but as chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/11/opinion/elon-musk-trump-election.html

Lastly, if a successful attempt to reform/redirect Artemis is forthcoming from Trump II, it probably won’t be through Musk’s “Department of Government Efficiency”.  As reported yesterday, that commission is not required to produce recommendations for another year and a half:

Quote
Trump’s statement said the commission’s work must be completed by “no later” than July 4, 2026 — not long before the next midterm elections.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/11/12/elon-musk-trump-doge-vivek-ramaswamy/

That’s too late — too long after the honeymoon with Congress is over, too close to the mid-term elections, and too much time for Orion/SLS appropriators and their supporters to mount a defense — for a reform/redirect scenario to be successful.  So if change is going to come to Artemis, it will be through some combination of backchannels between Musk and Trump, change leadership being put in charge at the agency, OMB civil service staff, and/or the transition team (least likely — that hasn’t started, either.)

FWIW...
« Last Edit: 11/13/2024 05:16 pm by VSECOTSPE »

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #1615 on: 11/13/2024 05:33 pm »
Trump and Musk: The Bromance That Cannot Last

I think those are great points.  On the other hand, Musk was pot-committed in a way that these others from prior eras were not.  The money was important, but Musk's commitment was much more than the money.  He paid for and personally ran Trump's ground game in the swing states.  Personally stumped for him online.  Gave well attended daily town halls targeting low propensity voters.  Has indicated that he will be involved in primaries and general elections going forward (i.e., can punish those who do not tow Trump's line and has a more or less unlimited bankroll to mete it out).

Trump's vital interests are not in NASA and Artemis, but Musk's sure are.  I would be gobsmacked to see inaction in those areas and expect an extensive overhaul.
« Last Edit: 11/13/2024 05:49 pm by RedLineTrain »

Offline VSECOTSPE

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #1616 on: 11/13/2024 06:12 pm »
I think those are great points.  On the other hand, Musk was pot-committed in a way that these others from prior eras were not.  The money was important, but Musk's commitment was much more than the money.  He paid for and personally ran Trump's ground game in the swing states.  Personally stumped for him online.  Gave well attended daily town halls targeting low propensity voters.  Has indicated that he will be involved in primaries and general elections going forward (i.e., can punish those who do not tow Trump's line and has a more or less unlimited bankroll to mete it out).

Trump's vital interests are not in NASA and Artemis, but Musk's sure are.  I would be gobsmacked to see inaction in those areas and expect an extensive overhaul.

I’d say that Musk’s influence introduces more potential for change in the US civil human space exploration program than since the Columbia accident.  But that alone does not guarantee change.  All sorts of things can derail it.  That op-ed from the historian points out one, which is that US Presidents have historically given their ultra-wealthy donors influence and access only as long as those donors were useful to those Presidents.  More generally, it’s just difficult for billionaires with big egos who are used to getting their own way to cooperate with each other over long spans of time.  Reforming or redirecting Artemis will take time.  So while Musk and Trump could defy history, the historical precedent for these kinds of relationships producing useful change is not good.

I would like Artemis reform to defy history under Trump II, but I’m also trying to be realistic about it.

FWIW...

Edit/Add:  Increasingly looks like historian Nasaw may turn out to be right and that the Trump/Musk relationship is fraying.  If this continues, it does not bode well for Artemis reform/redirection under Trump II.

Quote
And when Trump met with House Republicans in Washington on Wednesday as they gathered for leadership votes, the Space X founder was seated in the room among lawmakers.

“Elon won’t go home. I can’t get rid of him. Until I don’t like him,” Trump quipped, according to a source in the room.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4991320-donald-trump-elon-musk-republicans/

Quote
Musk has been so aggressive in pushing his views about Trump’s second term that he’s stepping on the toes of Trump’s transition team and may be overstaying his welcome at Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s home in Palm Beach, Florida, according to two people familiar with the transition who have spent time at the resort over the past week.

The sources said Musk’s near-constant presence at Mar-a-Lago in the week since Election Day had begun to wear on people who’ve been in Trump’s inner circle longer than he has and who see him as overstepping his role in the transition. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity because they’re not authorized to speak publicly.

“He’s behaving as if he’s a co-president and making sure everyone knows it,” one of the people said.

“And he’s sure taking lots of credit for the president’s victory. Bragging about America PAC and X to anyone who will listen. He’s trying to make President Trump feel indebted to him. And the president is indebted to no one,” this person added.

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/elon-musk-trump-donald-mar-a-lago-appointment-position-rcna179826

Quote
Elon Musk, the Tesla and SpaceX billionaire who has become President-elect Donald Trump’s “first buddy,” appeared to publicly pressure Trump on economic policy and a key Cabinet appointment Saturday.

In a Saturday morning post on X, the social network he owns and runs, Musk praised a foreign leader’s decision to cut tariffs — the same import taxes that Trump wants to raise to the highest level in a century. Several hours later, Musk posted that Howard Lutnick, Trump’s co-transition chair, would be a better choice than hedge fund executive Scott Bessent for treasury secretary.

...

Musk’s endorsement of Lutnick is likely to exacerbate the substantial confusion and even fear in Trump’s orbit about the central role Musk appears to be playing in personnel and policy decisions for the new administration.

The president’s allies were grateful to have had Musk’s financial and political backing during the campaign, but his growing influence has irritated some of Trump’s backers. Several people in Trump’s circle expressed astonishment Saturday that Musk would publicly push for his choice for a crucial economic role while the president-elect was still weighing his decision.

“People are not happy,” said one person in contact with campaign officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to reflect private conversations. This person said the statements suggested Musk was acting as a “co-president” and potentially overstepping his new role in Trump’s orbit.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/16/elon-musk-trump-treasury-tariffs/
« Last Edit: 11/17/2024 01:41 am by VSECOTSPE »

Offline yg1968

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #1617 on: 11/13/2024 06:36 pm »
That is true but it is also unlikely that SLS will be cancelled unless the President proposes it. I don't see Congress proposing cancellation on their own.

I don't know anyone that has thought that Congress would cancel the SLS on their own initiative. I mean, 14 years of history shows that they won't...

Yes but your post makes it seem like it is not important if the President proposes cancellation of SLS and my point is that it is very important. If your point is that both the President and Congress need to agree on cancellation, we agree.

Online TheRadicalModerate

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #1618 on: 11/13/2024 09:36 pm »
However if Congress does agree, and as of October 1st of 2025 the SLS program is cancelled, then I'm not sure I see a path to getting Americans back on the Moon during the Trump II term in office.

Trump just wants something big to happen during his term.  He can't have Mars, because there's zero chance of a crewed SpaceX launch to Mars prior to the 2028 window, which can't put boots on the ground until 2Q2029.  And, as things stand right now (I'm assuming NET 1Q2028 for Artemis III right now), a fairly modest additional slip will put a lunar landing during his term in jeopardy.

On the other hand, he can probably accelerate SpaceX a bit by clearing away regulatory obstacles,¹ which would make it possible to do the Option A test flight between 4Q2026 and 2Q2027.  I'd assume that crew-certification based on those results would take at least 6 months, so we could be looking looking at between 2Q2027 and 4Q2027 for the Mission Currently Known as Artemis III.

We can assume that the DDT&E delta to get from HLS Starship to an orbital transfer version of the same hardware (call it OTVLSS) is quite small--not zero, but extremely modest.  So the issue is really whether SLS/Orion for Arty III carries more programmatic risk than D2/OTVLSS for Arty III.  That's certainly a debatable topic, but I wouldn't say that using SpaceX would jeopardize the goal of boots on the ground during Trump II any more than sticking with the POR.

Note that HLS Starship is flirting with being on the critical path already.  But HLS and OTVLSS are pretty much fate-shared.  If HLS slips, then it doesn't really matter if OTVLSS slips or not.  And if HLS is OK, then OTVLSS is (likely) also OK.

____________
¹I think it's fairly safe to say that FAA restrictions on EDL and cadence are likely the largest programmatic risks to HLS Starship right now.  If Elon puts his ass on the line with Trump and Trump clears the way for him, he'll spend whatever it takes to deliver.  That doesn't guarantee that a showstopper engineering problem won't emerge, but lack of funding won't be the cause of a slip.

Online TheRadicalModerate

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #1619 on: 11/13/2024 09:49 pm »
A question:  Let's assume that Trump decides to cancel SLS and directs NASA to issue a BAA for a commercial cislunar crew program.  Can that BAA be issued before its funding is appropriated by Congress?  If it can, then this arm-wave at a schedule would be possible:

Real soon: Trump makes the decision, communicates it to the transition team, and NASA-management-in-waiting starts planning.

March 2025:  NASA budget request zeroes out at least SLS and issues the CCCP BAA.

June 2025:  All submissions due in.

August 2025:  Source selection decision made, pending funding.  At least five nines probability that SpaceX is selected in first position.

October 2025: FY2026 begins.  Even if Congress only does a continuing resolution, doesn't that allow NASA funds to be juggled internally?

November 2025:  Contract finalized.

This isn't the place to go over the conops in detail, but if HLS Starship is gonna work, then a D2 + OTV Starship is likely to work on exactly the same schedule, if not before.  Maybe Jared would be interested in turning Polaris 2 into a D2 + OTV Starship test mission, either solely in LEO or all the way to NRHO or LLO?

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