https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1856522880143745133
However if Congress does agree, and as of October 1st of 2025 the SLS program is cancelled, then I'm not sure I see a path to getting Americans back on the Moon during the Trump II term in office.
My sense is that the solution would be launching Orion on one rocket (probably FH, from 39A) and then docking with a (separately launched) Centaur V and boosting it to the Moon.
Quote from: Coastal Ron on 11/13/2024 02:05 amHowever if Congress does agree, and as of October 1st of 2025 the SLS program is cancelled, then I'm not sure I see a path to getting Americans back on the Moon during the Trump II term in office.If Artemis III with SLS/Orion could have worked by 2028...
...then a pure SpaceX mission can work in the same timeframe, with no additional hardware design.
Well of course there would have to be new hardware, though this isn't the thread to discuss such theoretical situations.
If you try to salvage Orion you will need new hardware design to launch it on top of a different LV and indeed you cannot get there by 2028.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 11/13/2024 02:27 amIf you try to salvage Orion you will need new hardware design to launch it on top of a different LV and indeed you cannot get there by 2028.A LV adapter doesn't need 4 years to design and build. SpaceX was able to design a new dispenser for OneWeb in 2 months.
Quote from: Eric BergerMy sense is that the solution would be launching Orion on one rocket (probably FH, from 39A) and then docking with a (separately launched) Centaur V and boosting it to the Moon.
Quote from: thespacecow on 11/13/2024 04:35 amQuote from: DanClemmensen on 11/13/2024 02:27 amIf you try to salvage Orion you will need new hardware design to launch it on top of a different LV and indeed you cannot get there by 2028.A LV adapter doesn't need 4 years to design and build. SpaceX was able to design a new dispenser for OneWeb in 2 months.Coastal Ron does not think alternative architectures belong here, so perhaps we can shift over to: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=57960.0or anywhere else you care to recommend.
Even with political grease a real mishap will slow things down. If SS gets permission to EDL over population for a catch (not guaranteed) everything had better work right. Not much reasonable wiggle room on this. Fumbling a booster catch, a serious oopsy during orbital refueling that blasts shrapnel all over LEO or spewing big chunks back to earth... they say space is hard for a reason.
Nov 12, 2024NASA could soon be looking at another complication to their lunar landing plans, with the different Artemis Moon to Mars programs up for review by the incoming Trump administration. The second term promises to be different in many ways, beginning with it being the only non-consecutive one since Presidential term limits were enacted.More importantly to NASA and Artemis, Elon Musk is advising Trump on the transition and beyond. Given the implications of the SpaceX founder advising Trump on NASA policy, this video is likely the first episode in what could end up being a big story into and through 2025.Nothing has happened yet and there are no guaranteed outcomes, but given the personalities involved, it's hard to ignore the possibility of big changes. For now, I'll take a first look at why one would think Trump and Musk would want to make changes, what happened to five years ago during Trump's first term just as the Artemis branding was announced, some differences between then and now, and how messy drastic changes could get.Imagery is courtesy of NASA, except where noted.00:00 Intro01:57 "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" -- What do Musk and Trump think?03:45 Different political situation than with the SLS cancellation attempt in Trump's first term07:46 Current Artemis situation: two halves don't make a whole, not yet09:40 Potential changes, potential implications, potential complications14:36 Thanks for watching!
Quote from: yg1968 on 11/13/2024 01:45 amhttps://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1856522880143745133As always, it is up to Congress to determine the fate of the SLS, not whoever the President is, or who the President employs.However if Congress does agree, and as of October 1st of 2025 the SLS program is cancelled, then I'm not sure I see a path to getting Americans back on the Moon during the Trump II term in office.
That is true but it is also unlikely that SLS will be cancelled unless the President proposes it. I don't see Congress proposing cancellation on their own.
A key factor will be the influence of Musk, who endorsed Donald Trump during the campaign and has reportedly been advising Trump in the days since the Nov. 5 election. “I do think that the change that he is going to bring to this administration will be like nothing that we have seen before,” said Lori Garver, who served as deputy administrator of NASA during part of the Obama administration. “For those of you who like what has been happening, it’s probably going to change.”Garver led the Obama transition team for NASA after the 2008 election which famously sparred with NASA leadership, including then-administrator Mike Griffin. “I’m still known as the person who was the most disruptive transition team ever” at NASA, she recalled. “I’m not going to hold that record any more.”...Panelists, though, expect Musk to play a role, directly or otherwise, in reshaping NASA in the next administration. “We’ll have a discussion with Elon. He’s earned a seat at the table,” said Scott Pace, director of George Washington University’s Space Policy Institute who served on the NASA transition for the incoming George W. Bush administration.That could prompt a reconsideration of both approaches like international cooperation as well as specific programs, like the lunar Gateway. “I think international engagement is going to be an important part of the Trump administration because it’s part of larger national interests,” Pace predicted. “There can be different styles to it, different emphases on it, but it’s absolutely going to be central.”Garver was skeptical. “It is by its nature slow,” she said of international cooperation, “which is the opposite of what these folks have in mind.”She added that she expected NASA would not be exempt from potential budget cuts, which could lead to a reconsideration of some existing programs of record. “It’s going to be less — and maybe this is wishful thinking on my part — contracts to members of Congress for jobs in their districts,” she said. “I think those guardrails are broken. We do not have these massive senators who have so much power because they’re chairing committees with large contracts in their districts.”At one point in the discussion, she asked the panel if they thought the Space Launch System and Orion programs would continue in the next administration. None of the panelists raised their hands. “Not as they are,” Pace said.
Andrew Carnegie — who was at the time, just like you, the richest man in the world — was a stalwart and generous contributor to the Republican presidents William McKinley and Theodore Roosevelt. Carnegie naturally assumed that he would, in return for his support and in recognition of his genius and one-on-one relationships with Europe’s elected leaders and crowned heads, be called upon as chief foreign policy adviser when Roosevelt assumed the presidency in 1901, after McKinley’s assassination. As such, he bombarded the White House with his recommendations for arbitration treaties between the major powers, which he believed would usher in a century of peace. His advice was dutifully acknowledged by Roosevelt — then ignored.And William Randolph Hearst? Mr. Musk, you’ve got your millions of social media followers, but your outreach still pales in comparison with Hearst’s in his heyday: 28 big-city newspapers, a syndicated wire service, radio stations, newsreels and 13 magazines. Hearst’s contributions to Franklin Roosevelt’s 1932 presidential campaign were, like yours to Mr. Trump’s, extensive and varied. In addition to huge financial assistance, Hearst used his media empire to conduct virulent and near-daily assaults on the incumbent, Herbert Hoover.The day after the election, Hearst’s wife, Millicent, sent a telegram to say that she “had seen Roosevelt last night. He said he was going to telephone you. You are getting all the credit for this victory from everybody I meet.” Hearst responded by forwarding his recommendations for cabinet appointments and an 11-point recovery plan, only to be ghosted by the president-elect: no letters, no telegrams, no phone calls. Almost two months later, Roosevelt finally issued an invitation to Hearst to visit him for private talks. The publisher declined, later producing a feature-length film, based on a novel, in which a guardian angel instructs a weak and unprepared president.Then there’s Joseph Kennedy, a multimillionaire, who connected the candidate Roosevelt to Hearst, as well as to Hollywood’s most powerful tycoons and to Irish American voters. Identified by The New York Times as a key adviser, Kennedy fully expected to be rewarded with a cabinet post, preferably Treasury secretary. Instead, he wound up commiserating with Hearst over being ghosted by the president-elect. Only in June 1934, more than a year and a half after the election, did Roosevelt finally offer Kennedy a place in his administration — though not in his cabinet but as chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Trump’s statement said the commission’s work must be completed by “no later” than July 4, 2026 — not long before the next midterm elections.
Trump and Musk: The Bromance That Cannot Last
I think those are great points. On the other hand, Musk was pot-committed in a way that these others from prior eras were not. The money was important, but Musk's commitment was much more than the money. He paid for and personally ran Trump's ground game in the swing states. Personally stumped for him online. Gave well attended daily town halls targeting low propensity voters. Has indicated that he will be involved in primaries and general elections going forward (i.e., can punish those who do not tow Trump's line and has a more or less unlimited bankroll to mete it out).Trump's vital interests are not in NASA and Artemis, but Musk's sure are. I would be gobsmacked to see inaction in those areas and expect an extensive overhaul.
And when Trump met with House Republicans in Washington on Wednesday as they gathered for leadership votes, the Space X founder was seated in the room among lawmakers.“Elon won’t go home. I can’t get rid of him. Until I don’t like him,” Trump quipped, according to a source in the room.
Musk has been so aggressive in pushing his views about Trump’s second term that he’s stepping on the toes of Trump’s transition team and may be overstaying his welcome at Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s home in Palm Beach, Florida, according to two people familiar with the transition who have spent time at the resort over the past week. The sources said Musk’s near-constant presence at Mar-a-Lago in the week since Election Day had begun to wear on people who’ve been in Trump’s inner circle longer than he has and who see him as overstepping his role in the transition. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity because they’re not authorized to speak publicly. “He’s behaving as if he’s a co-president and making sure everyone knows it,” one of the people said. “And he’s sure taking lots of credit for the president’s victory. Bragging about America PAC and X to anyone who will listen. He’s trying to make President Trump feel indebted to him. And the president is indebted to no one,” this person added.
Elon Musk, the Tesla and SpaceX billionaire who has become President-elect Donald Trump’s “first buddy,” appeared to publicly pressure Trump on economic policy and a key Cabinet appointment Saturday.In a Saturday morning post on X, the social network he owns and runs, Musk praised a foreign leader’s decision to cut tariffs — the same import taxes that Trump wants to raise to the highest level in a century. Several hours later, Musk posted that Howard Lutnick, Trump’s co-transition chair, would be a better choice than hedge fund executive Scott Bessent for treasury secretary....Musk’s endorsement of Lutnick is likely to exacerbate the substantial confusion and even fear in Trump’s orbit about the central role Musk appears to be playing in personnel and policy decisions for the new administration.The president’s allies were grateful to have had Musk’s financial and political backing during the campaign, but his growing influence has irritated some of Trump’s backers. Several people in Trump’s circle expressed astonishment Saturday that Musk would publicly push for his choice for a crucial economic role while the president-elect was still weighing his decision.“People are not happy,” said one person in contact with campaign officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to reflect private conversations. This person said the statements suggested Musk was acting as a “co-president” and potentially overstepping his new role in Trump’s orbit.
Quote from: yg1968 on 11/13/2024 02:54 pmThat is true but it is also unlikely that SLS will be cancelled unless the President proposes it. I don't see Congress proposing cancellation on their own.I don't know anyone that has thought that Congress would cancel the SLS on their own initiative. I mean, 14 years of history shows that they won't...
