Author Topic: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5  (Read 580172 times)

Offline clongton

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #2100 on: 02/12/2025 08:38 pm »
2020 – SpaceX Starship Updates
While discussing Starship's heat shield, Musk compared it to Dragon's PICA-X, stating that Dragon's heat shield had already been tested in conditions beyond LEO reentry speeds....

Do we know when and where such tests occurred?

I don't. I have no sources inside Space-X. Others on this forum do. Perhaps one of them can inquire?

I have posted an inquiry on the L2 Level: Request for SpaceX Info Validation Thread:
In a Reddit AMA in 2012, Elon Musk confirmed that the PICA-X heat shield was tested to withstand higher heat loads than necessary for LEO return, explicitly mentioning that it could handle lunar and Martian return speeds. Does anyone here have insight into when this testing was done and the results that were obtained that back up Mr. Musk's ascertains?

If I receive an answer, I will inquire from the moderators whether or not I can share that specific answer here. Under normal circumstances that answer would be "no", but because the question originated here, and there is no non-L2 thread on which to post it, this might be a special circumstance. Or not. We'll see.
« Last Edit: 02/12/2025 08:51 pm by clongton »
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I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

Offline TheRadicalModerate

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #2101 on: 02/12/2025 09:16 pm »
Just to bring us back somewhat to reality:  The main thing that dragging a D2 along to cislunar does is it deals with the RAAN problem.  There's no need, especially in a two-LSS architecture, for a direct EDL using D2.  There is a need for BEO-rated avionics, qualifying the docking ring and crew system under Raptor-provided acceleration, and the requirement that D2 be able to free-fly for a week or two with no crew in cislunar orbit.

Where D2 direct EDL becomes important is in two situations:

1) We don't know what kind of rescue envelope the Ferry LSS would need to deal with problems on the HLS, but some of the more extreme versions of that might run the Ferry's delta-v budget down to the point where propulsive LEO insert was impossible.  In that case, putting the Crew in the D2 just before entry interface and doing direct EDL would be very handy.

2) For v3 LSSes only, there are a couple¹ of one-LSS conops that never require refueling with the crew onboard, and can do the entire round trip from LEO to the lunar surface and back, but they forgo the propulsive LEO insertion in favor of the D2 direct EDL.  This is very attractive:  even EDL-capable LSSes, due to their increased dry mass, can't do this without a crewed refueling in HEEO or lunar orbit.  It's also the cheapest conops I've found in terms of the number of tankers needed.

However, it's still limited to a crew of four.

_________
¹These two:

a) Refuel in VLEO only, and skip NRHO in favor of LLO only.
b) Refueling in an eccentric LEO, still accessible to the D2.  This allows NRHO staging.

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #2102 on: 02/13/2025 02:59 am »
Re: hardened avionics for a beyond Leo D2.


SX uses 3x redundant computers and controllers to avoid hardened design. IIUC, the two main points against hardened circuitry is high cost and lower performance. The performance hit is because low demand forces batch manufacturing and warehousing until stocks are low and a new batch is needed. As a result chips are rarely anything near state of the art.


AIUI radiation glitches are usually flipped bits, not damaged circuits.


When in or beyond the Van Allen belt does particle energy get high enough to fry circuits? If so, the rad hardened chips available today might not be a simple drop in. If the problem is limited to flipped bits, how practical might it be to triplicate all the D2 avionics?
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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #2103 on: 02/13/2025 03:49 am »
Section 1 of Single Event Effect Criticality Analysis (https://nepp.nasa.gov/DocUploads/6D728AF0-2817-4530-97555B6DCB26D083/seecai.pdf) has a useful taxonomy of space radiation terms and definitions. It's from https://radhome.gsfc.nasa.gov/
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Offline yg1968

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #2104 on: 02/13/2025 04:21 am »
See below:

New Space Subcommittee Chair Backs Moon First, Then Mars:
https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/new-space-subcommittee-chair-backs-moon-first-then-mars/

Quote from: the article
[Acting NASA Administrator Janet Petro said:] “I will say up front that Artemis is not just limited to SLS and Orion. It is a big tent … and our eventual goal is going to Mars. … We have a lot of support and industry partners helping us get back there” with the two HLS systems from SpaceX and Blue Origin and the CLPS robotic landers.  “There’s a mutual benefit to both of us working together. We learn a lot from our commercial partners like the speed of business and the sense of urgency.” For its part NASA brings “60 years of experience of exploring space” and the result is “mutually beneficial.”  NASA will continue to do the “really hard things that maybe have never been done before” where there’s no business case, and when there is a business case and industry is willing to step up, “that’s going to get us further, faster.”

Speaking to reporters afterward, Petro said NASA right now is focused on implementing Trump’s Executive Orders and executing the agency’s Programs of Record, including Artemis II and Artemis III. Any changes will wait until the new NASA Administrator is confirmed.

https://twitter.com/SpcPlcyOnline/status/1889903293658439850
« Last Edit: 02/13/2025 04:23 am by yg1968 »

Offline VSECOTSPE

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #2105 on: 02/13/2025 06:01 am »
Some bits on Artemis, Petro, and Isaacman...

DOGE to Examine NASA Payments

Quote
Petro said that, contrary to some reports, she had not been lobbying the White House to at least maintain the Artemis 2 and 3 missions as currently planned. “I am an interim person,” she said. “We are executing on our programs of record, which does include Artemis 2 and 3 and beyond. So, we are executing on that program as it exists today.”

“When the new administrator gets confirmed, I am sure that he will talk with the White House and get the new direction, if there is a change in direction,” she said. “That is not my role right now.”

...

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee, said after a speech at the conference earlier in the day that the committee has yet to schedule a confirmation hearing for Isaacman. “We’re still waiting for the paperwork to be completed,” he said. “The confirmation can’t move forward until the paperwork has been submitted and completed.”

https://spacenews.com/doge-to-examine-nasa-payments/

C’mon, Isaacman.  Stop flying and tweeting and file your dang paperwork... time’s a wastin...
« Last Edit: 02/13/2025 06:02 am by VSECOTSPE »

Offline Proponent

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #2106 on: 02/13/2025 12:28 pm »
Do we know that the paperwork delays are down to Isaacman? Could it be that he has filed the paperwork but the Trump administration has not yet processed it? Surely the administration must be involved, for example, to do background checks.

Offline TheRadicalModerate

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #2107 on: 02/13/2025 07:59 pm »
Do we know that the paperwork delays are down to Isaacman? Could it be that he has filed the paperwork but the Trump administration has not yet processed it? Surely the administration must be involved, for example, to do background checks.

If Cruz really wants to get an authorization bill passed with SLS and Orion in it (as Berger speculated on the Main Engine Cutoff podcast), he could be dragging his feet on the paperwork.  It doesn't take much for an aide to temporarily "misplace" it.

Offline yg1968

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #2108 on: 02/13/2025 10:35 pm »
Do we know that the paperwork delays are down to Isaacman? Could it be that he has filed the paperwork but the Trump administration has not yet processed it? Surely the administration must be involved, for example, to do background checks.

If Cruz really wants to get an authorization bill passed with SLS and Orion in it (as Berger speculated on the Main Engine Cutoff podcast), he could be dragging his feet on the paperwork.  It doesn't take much for an aide to temporarily "misplace" it.

I doubt that's the reason. It will take many months to iron out the differences between the House's and the Senate's versions of the NASA Authorization bills. It will be interesting to see if Trump decides to veto the NASA Authorization bill. Although I suspect that any differences with the President would be ironed out before it gets to a final vote on the final version of the bill in both chambers.
« Last Edit: 02/13/2025 10:37 pm by yg1968 »

Offline yg1968

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #2109 on: 02/14/2025 02:24 am »
Analysis-Cutting moon rocket would test Musk's power to slash jobs in Republican states:
https://www.aol.com/news/analysis-cutting-moon-rocket-test-200854221.html

Offline DistantTemple

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #2110 on: 02/14/2025 04:05 am »
Do we know that the paperwork delays are down to Isaacman? Could it be that he has filed the paperwork but the Trump administration has not yet processed it? Surely the administration must be involved, for example, to do background checks.

If Cruz really wants to get an authorization bill passed with SLS and Orion in it (as Berger speculated on the Main Engine Cutoff podcast), he could be dragging his feet on the paperwork.  It doesn't take much for an aide to temporarily "misplace" it.

I doubt that's the reason. It will take many months to iron out the differences between the House's and the Senate's versions of the NASA Authorization bills. It will be interesting to see if Trump decides to veto the NASA Authorization bill. Although I suspect that any differences with the President would be ironed out before it gets to a final vote on the final version of the bill in both chambers.
Maybe it is not a top priority for the administration. Most of the recent changes have a large element of taking control, and removing the possibility of resistance. Many are long term goals of proponents of Maga etc. In contrast SLS is rather stand alone. Also these many goals have more general support across Maga and related organizations. NASA and SLS have some strong support from certain republican states and lawmakers mainly due to jobs-in-states (as frequently discussed on NSF etc) so again do not fall into the same category.
Another reason for waiting on SLS decisions, may be to see how these current changes go, as the administration's success and progress could vastly impact how drastic the administration feels it can be. For example if the Trump Musk dynamic becomes difficult, or the public get really fed up with Musk, SLS changes may not be as drastic, conversely if Musk's involvement in government begins to be seen as successful, positive and popular, not only may SLS be more aggressively cut, but Artemis drastically altered and a greater role handed to SpaceX.
Separately if Starship successfully reaches a fully controlled orbit and landing, that would be a better time to "tear SLS to shreds and hand the money to Elon" (and BO).
It also makes sense for much of this to happen before Jared Isaacman is appointed, as the big picture will be set, and JI can then fine tune and implement it. As said above, the NASA administrator (attempts to) deliver(s) the presidents policy. Jared seems to keep quiet on politics.
SLS, IMO is no where near the core of MAGA policy, its possibly a negotiation with (/alignment to) Musk, and the possibility of even within this presidential term, some amazing headline events.
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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #2111 on: 02/14/2025 04:53 pm »
Section 1 of Single Event Effect Criticality Analysis (https://nepp.nasa.gov/DocUploads/6D728AF0-2817-4530-97555B6DCB26D083/seecai.pdf) has a useful taxonomy of space radiation terms and definitions. It's from https://radhome.gsfc.nasa.gov/
I've made it to pg4. To answer my own question: A very firm, clear and unequivocal "it depends." :D
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Offline TheRadicalModerate

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #2112 on: 02/14/2025 08:08 pm »
Section 1 of Single Event Effect Criticality Analysis (https://nepp.nasa.gov/DocUploads/6D728AF0-2817-4530-97555B6DCB26D083/seecai.pdf) has a useful taxonomy of space radiation terms and definitions. It's from https://radhome.gsfc.nasa.gov/
I've made it to pg4. To answer my own question: A very firm, clear and unequivocal "it depends." :D

We're not talking about a trip to Jupiter here.  A little extra redundancy might go a long way.  That said, your D2, which is your way home, whether it's from LEO after insertion or direct from TEI, is going to incur more avionics risk by being dragged to lunar orbit and back.

I suspect that SpaceX has a pretty good risk model for this, with all of the fluences and energies nicely parameterized.  They can answer the question.  It's just a question of whether the answer makes the risk worthwhile.

Remember, at the end of the day, 90% of the advantage here is doing away with the RAAN mismatch problem.  There is another solution (i.e., keep a second D2 on warm standby to deal with an abort), so this is all just a risk vs. cost balancing act.

Offline yg1968

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #2113 on: 02/16/2025 04:48 pm »
Quote from: Reddit
sevgonlernassau

The new budget request completely cancel SLS/Orion/Gateway and transfer exploration to a commercial to Mars program. Pretty clear what they want to do

https://www.reddit.com/r/fednews/comments/1ippdo2/comment/mctwl18/

Quote from: Reddit
sevgonlernassau

No action will be taken until the new admin gets swore in. Fwiw, the new budget request cancel the entirety of Artemis and focus on “commercial” to Mars, so there’s no moon.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nasa/comments/1ipim2s/comment/mcs63l3/

Quote from: Reddit
sevgonlernassau

[His source for the information:] People in DC. [$]1B cut to SMD [Science Mission Directorate], eliminating ESD [Earth Science Division]. New commercial program is a giveaway to musk.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nasa/comments/1ipim2s/comment/mcscpea/

I am not sure if this is true but it would align with some of Eric Berger's reporting.
« Last Edit: 02/16/2025 06:47 pm by yg1968 »

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #2114 on: 02/16/2025 05:18 pm »
Artemis Week in Review: Artemis II stacking progresses with political drama continuing to lurk



Quote

Feb 16, 2025
In this week's review of Artemis news, the main themes continue.  NASA Exploration Ground Systems continues to stack the Artemis II SLS vehicle alongside rumors that the government-run rocket is in jeopardy of cancellation.  Last week, Boeing, one of the SLS prime contractors, warned its workforce that significant percentage could lose their jobs, which seemed to prompt more questions about the possibility that President Trump and Elon Musk are getting ready to terminate the whole program.

Members of Congressional oversight and appropriations publicly responded to those questions for seemingly the first-time, since most of them are in the same political party as Trump and Musk and want to keep any disagreements quiet.  It remains to be seen whether any objections will be sustained and what happens when either side doesn't get its way.

The politics continues to overshadow the work, but then updates about work progress remain limited mostly to pictures without much accompanying details.  I reviewed pictures of the last of ten SLS solid rocket motor segments being stacked for Artemis II, fully emptying the storage facility in the process.  With the exception of the SLS second stage and Orion connector, the other pieces of the Artemis II rocket are standing by in the VAB for their turn to be stacked in the coming weeks and months.

Imagery is courtesy of NASA, except where noted.

Links to social media posts:
https://x.com/jackiewattles/status/18...

https://bsky.app/profile/lorengrush.b...


Links to stories referenced:
https://spacenews.com/boeing-warns-sl...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsle...

https://www.reuters.com/technology/sp...


00:00 Intro
00:58 Artemis II stacking continues, with the SLS Boosters almost complete
01:52 Right-hand forward segment is the last of ten to be stacked, RPSF now empty
03:37 The forward assemblies will top out the left and right boosters
04:47 NASA releases new mission animation for Artemis II
05:33 Washington political drama continues
06:22 Boeing reduces the number of possible SLS lay offs
11:04 Trump/Musk planning "large-scale" reduction in force, which could include NASA
11:36 Other news and notes: Gateway HALO module nearing shipment to the U.S.
12:58 Thanks for watching!
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Offline yg1968

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Offline thespacecow

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #2116 on: 02/17/2025 06:17 am »
https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2025/02/16/nasa-trump-musk-spacex/

Quote
NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) rocket, which is supposed to send astronauts to lunar orbit next year and then to the surface in 2027 as part of the Artemis program, is agency-owned hardware. Its development over the past decade-plus has cost tens of billions of dollars. Critics have declared it a white elephant and a waste of taxpayer dollars in an era when commercial companies can provide launches at a much lower cost.

But Artemis, NASA’s lunar program, still has strong bipartisan support. Speaking to reporters last week, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) seemed to offer support for Artemis while leaving open the possibility of a significant change in how the mission is carried out.

“I think we’ll continue to see innovation. What is important is that we keep moving forward to the stated objectives, and we do so with cause,” Cruz said.

Asked if he would support a directive to end the rocket program, he said, “Those conversations are ongoing.”
« Last Edit: 02/17/2025 06:19 am by thespacecow »

Online catdlr

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #2117 on: 02/18/2025 06:26 pm »
Phillip Sloss Report:

In the shadow of politics: the Artemis big picture today



Quote
Feb 18, 2025
In this video, I look at where things stand with preparations and planning for the next three Artemis lunar missions, even as they face the possibility that President Trump and Elon Musk are going to shut them down.  With that hanging over NASA's Exploration directorate, work still continues on Artemis II, III, and IV.

I'll look at how Exploration Ground Systems is stacking Artemis II in the Vehicle Assembly Building and the work that remains this year to get ready to launch that crewed, circumlunar mission.  Musk's SpaceX is developing the critical piece for the Artemis III lunar landing mission, and I'll look at the big picture of where Starship is, along with work on the Axiom Space EVA suit, and downstream Orion and SLS production.

There's also the assembly work for most of the Artemis IV elements that continues, too, from Exploration Upper Stage to the Gateway modules to Mobile Launcher-2.

The fate of all of that work now rests on decisions and positions in Washington, D.C.; we're waiting to see where Trump and Musk's axe falls next, and whether anyone in power will object.

Imagery is courtesy of NASA, except where noted.

Links to stories referenced:
https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/cutting-moon-rocket-would-test-musks-power-slash-jobs-republican-states-2025-02-12/

00:00 Intro
01:04 The big picture for Artemis II
05:32 Artemis III big picture
08:15 Artemis IV big picture
11:51 Everything depends on the political situation
15:16 Thanks for watching!
« Last Edit: 02/18/2025 06:29 pm by catdlr »
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Offline StraumliBlight

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #2118 on: 02/19/2025 08:08 pm »
Jim Free just resigned.

Quote
Jim Free, NASA's associate administrator who has been a central voice defending the agency's Artemis moon program, is planning to leave the agency by Saturday, two sources said.

[...]

Free, who is in mid 50s, announced his departure plans to agency officials in a meeting on Wednesday, saying it was a tough decision to make, one of the sources said.

Some agency officials expected his eventual departure as many Trump advisors criticize elements of NASA's moon program, such as its Space Launch System, an over-budget but operational moon rocket.
« Last Edit: 02/19/2025 08:09 pm by StraumliBlight »

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Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #2119 on: 02/19/2025 09:22 pm »
Apparently skepticism about SpaceX now has no place at NASA.

Quote from: Jeff Foust June 8, 2023
[Free] reiterated those schedule concerns later in the meeting when asked about the schedule for Artemis 3. “With the difficulties that SpaceX has had, I think that’s really concerning,” he said. “You can think about that slipping probably into ’26.”

Congrats to Joey Roulette for the scoop on Free's departure, and yet it wasn't hard to see it coming.

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