I’m going with a Redirect to Mars but not because of a major event…I believe a redirect will be driven by Musk and his influence with Trump II…It will be a payback to Musk for his support, financial and otherwise, during this election.
I think that scenario depends on the degree of Musk’s direct involvement.
I personally don't think Musk's support of Trump had much to do with NASA. I don't think he's looking for a quid pro quo. When Musk spoke about the election, his issues were mostly outside of space. I take him at his word.
I personally don't think Musk's support of Trump had much to do with NASA. I don't think he's looking for a quid pro quo. When Musk spoke about the election, his issues were mostly outside of space. I take him at his word.What I would like to see is NASA immediately put out solicitations to industry for returning to the Moon that has a path forward to Mars. There should be few restrictions, if any on what they propose. The bidders could come back with options in architecture, time line and funding (Cost plus, fixed price, etc.) Leave open if a company wants to bid on one part or all. Just set a deadline for proposals and see what kind of creative solutions could be offered. When the proposals come in, make a decision whether or not to cancel SLS/Orion, choose one or more ides to go forward. Make resolving this the top mission of the next administrator. I think Trump wants to be bold across the board. This would be bold.
Quote from: Eric Hedman on 11/06/2024 05:04 pmI personally don't think Musk's support of Trump had much to do with NASA. I don't think he's looking for a quid pro quo. When Musk spoke about the election, his issues were mostly outside of space. I take him at his word.I think you're generally right, but I also think (1) he'll be consulted and (2) he won't hold back in his suggestions. So whether there was a quid pro quo or not, won't really matter.There are a couple open questions here:1) Do we even know whether Musk would push for Mars over the moon? While Mars is his ultimate goal, I'm not sure he's so against the moon being a more practical, shorter-term destination.2) Let's say Musk pushes for Mars. I think many other Trump administration advisors realize the impracticality of Mars being a destination in the next 4 years, versus what would be a political triumph in returning to the moon. I highly doubt any of his other advisors would be on board. So will Trump listen to Musk, likely in conflict with the advice he gets from his other advisors?
Musk has made a lot of speeches lately and he consistently talks about both the Moon and Mars. So I don't expect HLS-Starship to be cancelled but I am hoping that a commercial Mars transportation program will be created.
It’s also possible that all Musk wants for SX for his investment in Trump II is faster FAA launch clearance reviews. That’s what Musk has actually complained about with respect to SX, not anything at NASA or DOD space. So we may be projecting our hopes onto Musk and postulating about something that’s not going to happen, and Musk will instead mostly seek changes that benefit Tesla, X (formerly Twitter), etc. Hard to say for sure.
Quote from: yg1968 on 11/06/2024 05:58 pmMusk has made a lot of speeches lately and he consistently talks about both the Moon and Mars. So I don't expect HLS-Starship to be cancelled but I am hoping that a commercial Mars transportation program will be created.SpaceX has been developing Starship to be a commercial transportation system, so there is nothing the U.S. Government has to do, other than be a customer. No government involvement needed.
Quote from: Coastal Ron on 11/06/2024 06:20 pmQuote from: yg1968 on 11/06/2024 05:58 pmMusk has made a lot of speeches lately and he consistently talks about both the Moon and Mars. So I don't expect HLS-Starship to be cancelled but I am hoping that a commercial Mars transportation program will be created.SpaceX has been developing Starship to be a commercial transportation system, so there is nothing the U.S. Government has to do, other than be a customer. No government involvement needed.Perhaps but I would expect NASA to buy an entire Mars surface mission (not just seats on the mission). NASA could set certain requirements for that mission if they wanted to.
But I agree with you that the less requirements, the better.
Perhaps that NASA could just pay for the outcome as Musk is suggesting in the post above.
The U.S. Government already has that option - it's called Firm Fixed Price contracts. No payment is made until the goods or services are provided.Look, the issues with the U.S. Government (including NASA) are usually at the top, not the bottom of the U.S. Government. There is no mystery as to how government goods and services are acquired and paid for, so whatever Musk is talking about is just unsubstantiated ranks for entertainment purposes...
my own fantasy
I think the best approach is probably to keep Artemis 3-5 using SLS/Orion/HLS, terminate SLS and Orion after Artemis 5, don't extend HLS beyond the current plan of Artemis 5, and start a new procurement for Artemis 6 and beyond without SLS/Orion baggage....My favorite option for Artemis 6 and beyond would be for NASA to ... run a Mars procurement first and only go to the Moon if there's money left over. When going to Mars NASA should actually run two parallel fixed-price procurements, one to visit a Martian moon and the other to visit Mars's surface....If there's money left over after the Mars procurement or people don't want to prioritize Mars then NASA should do a post-Artemis-6 procurement for transport of crew from Earth's surface to the lunar surface and back to Earth.
Five reasons to make cancellation of SLS and Orion effective only after Artemis V:-Ensure we land on moon again even if Artemis III fails.-Avoid the cutting corners on safety that's likely if Artemis III is our only shot at the moon for a while.-Canceling earlier likely wouldn't save much money since much of the costs have already been paid-Don't piss off Blue Origin and SpaceX by canceling their Artemis IV and V contracts. ...-Keep competition between Blue Origin and SpaceX fair by letting both retain their HLS contracts.
The moons of Mars aren't an ideal destination but the alternatives seem worse. The problem is ... NASA lacks the budget to have two competing Mars surface contractors. ... Visiting Mars's moons seems better than the alternative of just orbiting Mars and hoping that the astronauts don't die of boredom or claustrophobia living in a spaceship non-stop for several years.
Quote from: Coastal Ron on 11/06/2024 08:28 pmThe U.S. Government already has that option - it's called Firm Fixed Price contracts. No payment is made until the goods or services are provided.Look, the issues with the U.S. Government (including NASA) are usually at the top, not the bottom of the U.S. Government. There is no mystery as to how government goods and services are acquired and paid for, so whatever Musk is talking about is just unsubstantiated ranks for entertainment purposes...Firm-fixed price contracts doesn't mean that there is no requirement. There is requirements, there is just less of them. For example, HLS has a lot of requirements and so does commercial crew.
I don't think that Musk's point about outcomes was about NASA, I think that it was a broader point related to government contracts.
I do not see any way that Musk can take a role in government without triggering conflicts of interest. I have assumed that he will stay completely out of government. Anything else will add years to his Mars schedule. Of course he has done other self-destructive things in the last two years, so my assumption may be wrong.
I do feel that Musk involvement in the federal government will be high-level stuff (his Department Of Goverment Efficiency) - licensing, contracting, etc. Not micromanagement of NASA.
Musk, whose pro-Trump super PAC spent more than $118 million in the 2024 campaign, has pitched himself to lead a broad effort to slash spending inside the federal government.A source familiar with the conversations around Musk said it seemed unlikely that he would even want a full-time government position, given what that would mean for his role in the various companies he helms.Instead, it seemed more plausible that Musk would be appointed to a blue-ribbon committee where he would still have enormous access, but he would not be subject to government ethics rules, which would require him to divest or put assets in a blind trust to avoid conflicts of interest between his private business interests and government role.
1) Do we even know whether Musk would push for Mars over the moon? While Mars is his ultimate goal, I'm not sure he's so against the moon being a more practical, shorter-term destination.
2) Let's say Musk pushes for Mars. I think many other Trump administration advisors realize the impracticality of Mars being a destination in the next 4 years, versus what would be a political triumph in returning to the moon. I highly doubt any of his other advisors would be on board. So will Trump listen to Musk, likely in conflict with the advice he gets from his other advisors?
Musk specifially said that he did not ask anything from Trump for his endorsement and support and I believe Musk when he says that.
What Musk needs most from Artemis is cadence. Cislunar cadence is what allows SpaceX to develop, refine, and cost-reduce all the refueling tech that's needed to enable any BEO market. At least for the time being, Artemis is the only program that's generating any BEO demand, so he at least needs to speed it up, and likely expand it.
I suspect that Boeing, LockMart, NorGrumm, and AJR-L3H have done their best to curry favor with Trump. But I doubt they've curried $120M of favor. They're all weak right now, and Elon is strong.
This point is also well-taken. But I’d also point out that Musk donated ~$120M to the Trump II campaign, not to congressional appropriators campaigns. Boeing, LockMart, NG, and AJR donated to congressional appropriators. And have large workforces/numbers of voters in the districts/states of those appropriators. Musk has bought a lot of access and influence with the Trump II White House. Whether that translates to much access and influence on the Hill remains to be seen. There will probably be a honeymoon period between Trump II and Congress, especially if the Republicans remain in control in the House. But parochial interests will eventually rear their heads and assert themselves.FWIW...
Trump/Musk may not know what the quid pro quo(s) will be yet. And those quid pro quos may end up having nothing to do with NASA or the space sector. But we should not be that naive about multi-hundred million dollar campaign donations between transactional billionaires