Author Topic: NextSpaceFlight lists 10 planned launches for Vulcan in 2023  (Read 38238 times)

Offline seb21051

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That implies another 18 BE-4 engines from BO, unless they implement SMART very quickly. How realistic is it to expect BO to be able to deliver engines that soon?

1. Peregrine - Net Feb
2. USSF-106 - Net March
3. USSF - 87 - Net March
4. CRS SNC-1 - Net May
5. CRS SNC-2 - Net June
6. USSF - 112 - Net June
7. CRS SNC-3 - Net July
8. CRS SNC-4 - Net Sept
9. CRS SNC-5 - Net Dec
10. Kuiper - Net Dec

« Last Edit: 01/19/2023 12:26 am by zubenelgenubi »

Offline deadman1204

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That implies another 18 BE-4 engines from BO, unless they implement SMART very quickly. How realistic is it to expect BO to be able to deliver engines that soon?

1. Peregrine - Net Feb
2. USSF-106 - Net March
3. USSF - 87 - Net March
4. CRS SNC-1 - Net May
5. CRS SNC-2 - Net June
6. USSF - 112 - Net June
7. CRS SNC-3 - Net July
8. CRS SNC-4 - Net Sept
9. CRS SNC-5 - Net Dec
10. Kuiper - Net Dec
Yea, this isn't gonna happen lol

Offline whitelancer64

First of all, the Demo launch of DreamChaser is missing, which is supposed to be the second launch of the Vulcan rocket.

Secondly, SNC is absolutely NOT going to have 5 DreamChaser launches to the ISS this year. That's entirely placeholder and should be treated as such. I would expect -maybe- one CRS mission late this year after the DreamChaser Demo mission is completed.

Thirdly, the USSF launches are out of order.  -106 and -87 are supposed to be Q3. (Per Wikipedia) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Vulcan_launches

I think these launch dates are either VERY out of date or are simply placeholders pending the announcement of actual launch dates.
« Last Edit: 01/18/2023 09:21 pm by whitelancer64 »
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
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Offline Skyrocket

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That implies another 18 BE-4 engines from BO, unless they implement SMART very quickly. How realistic is it to expect BO to be able to deliver engines that soon?

1. Peregrine - Net Feb
2. USSF-106 - Net March
3. USSF - 87 - Net March
4. CRS SNC-1 - Net May
5. CRS SNC-2 - Net June
6. USSF - 112 - Net June
7. CRS SNC-3 - Net July
8. CRS SNC-4 - Net Sept
9. CRS SNC-5 - Net Dec
10. Kuiper - Net Dec



Why on earth should there be five CRS SNC (Dream Chaser Cargo) launches?

Offline gongora

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Online launch manifest needs to be updated again, news at 11.

Seriously, it's obvious most of those missions aren't flying this year regardless of how many engines are available.  Only one of the SNC missions would be manifested this year, the USSF missions aren't flying this year.

Offline seb21051

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So, with all that said, how many launches could one reasonably expect for 2023?

Offline gongora

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Probably not more than two

Offline whitelancer64

So, with all that said, how many launches could one reasonably expect for 2023?


I'd guess 5 at most. A lot is riding on the first launch of Vulcan.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline seb21051

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Probably not more than two

Ok, you think the Peregrine and SNC-1?

Offline DanClemmensen

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This is ridiculous. I'm willing to believe that Vulcan will become a great LV in time, but no modern orbital LV has launched more than twice in its first year, and the last time ULA launched more than 10 in a year was 2016.

It appears that modern LVs generally take at least 5 years to launch the first 10 vehicles. Launch is a learning process.

Offline gongora

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Probably not more than two

Ok, you think the Peregrine and SNC-1?

Yes, if Dream Chaser is ready this year (they seem to be making progress).

Offline whitelancer64

This is ridiculous. I'm willing to believe that Vulcan will become a great LV in time, but no modern orbital LV has launched more than twice in its first year, and the last time ULA launched more than 10 in a year was 2016.

It appears that modern LVs generally take at least 5 years to launch the first 10 vehicles. Launch is a learning process.

Atlas V launched 3 times within its first year. August 21, 2002, May 14, 2003, and July 17, 2003. Atlas V's 10th launch was June 15, 2007. That 5 year period also saw the final 11 launches of the Atlas II and III.

Electron's first launch was May 25, 2017, its 10th launch was December 6, 2019. It is a much smaller rocket of course, and it did launch 6 times in 2019.

Falcon 9 demo launch was June 4, 2010. Its 10th flight was July 14, 2014, a period of just over 4 years. This includes a major upgrade of the LV from the v1.0 to the v1.1

ULA has a lot of pressure on to make sure Vulcan performs. They really need it to be a very reliable workhorse ASAP to secure their future. They need to get it certified for their NSSL launches and start flying them.

To be clear: I do think 5 is a stretch. It assumes everything goes perfectly on the first launch (probably not, considering how much new stuff is being debuted) and the subsequent launches.  I think at least 3 is very possible, 4 may be pushing it (but ULA really does need to get those NSSL launches going).
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline DanClemmensen

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This is ridiculous. I'm willing to believe that Vulcan will become a great LV in time, but no modern orbital LV has launched more than twice in its first year, and the last time ULA launched more than 10 in a year was 2016.

It appears that modern LVs generally take at least 5 years to launch the first 10 vehicles. Launch is a learning process.

Atlas V launched 3 times within its first year. August 21, 2002, May 14, 2003, and July 17, 2003. Atlas V's 10th launch was June 15, 2007. That 5 year period also saw the final 11 launches of the Atlas II and III.

Electron's first launch was May 25, 2017, its 10th launch was December 6, 2019. It is a much smaller rocket of course, and it did launch 6 times in 2019.

Falcon 9 demo launch was June 4, 2010. Its 10th flight was July 14, 2014, a period of just over 4 years. This includes a major upgrade of the LV from the v1.0 to the v1.1

ULA has a lot of pressure on to make sure Vulcan performs. They really need it to be a very reliable workhorse ASAP to secure their future. They need to get it certified for their NSSL launches and start flying them.

To be clear: I do think 5 is a stretch. It assumes everything goes perfectly on the first launch (probably not, considering how much new stuff is being debuted) and the subsequent launches.  I think at least 3 is very possible, 4 may be pushing it (but ULA really does need to get those NSSL launches going).
Sorry, I was going from a graph in another post and I may have misinterpreted it. Note, however, that this thread is about calendar year 2023, not about the first 365 days after the first launch. Note also that Jim says the min launch interval fro Atlas V is one month, so it would be reasonable to assume Vulcan will take about that since they launch from the same pad(?) and it is unlikely that they will launch Vulcan from Vandenberg this year.

Offline deadman1204

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Aren't they still waiting on the full engine qualifications to be done by blue before the first launch?
Then after the first two, won't there be about 13 mountains of paperwork to do for the space force to finish qualifying the rocket before it get launch anything for them?

Offline DanClemmensen

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Vulcan Centaur will apparently launch from the same two launch complexes that are used by Atlas V:  CCSFS SLC-41 and VSFB SLC-3E.

Jim says Atlas V can launch once a month. Is this pad turnaround or Atlas V turnaround? If pad turnaround, then will this also be the number for Vulcan Centaur?

What about launch complex reconfiguration between Atlas and Vulcan? We know Atlas will continue to fly, with 19 more missions. We also know that Vulcan booster is methalox while Atlas is kerolox. Are there two different launch pads at each complex, or do they use the same literal pad?

We have seen that methane GSE can require some testing and debugging for a large rocket, notably Starship. It's probably easier than Hydrogen a lot easier than hydrogen, but it's still going to be new. If Vulcan needs to roll back a few times we should not be surprised: it's normal and presumably it's in the schedule.


Offline gongora

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Same pad, but different mobile launch platforms for the different rockets.  They've already done some tanking tests with the Vulcan pathfinder, so not starting from scratch there.

Offline DanClemmensen

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Same pad, but different mobile launch platforms for the different rockets.  They've already done some tanking tests with the Vulcan pathfinder, so not starting from scratch there.
If there is room to stack a Vulcan and an Atlas at the same time, one on each ML, then this might reduce pad "conversion", not increase it.

Offline whitelancer64

Same pad, but different mobile launch platforms for the different rockets.  They've already done some tanking tests with the Vulcan pathfinder, so not starting from scratch there.

If there is room to stack a Vulcan and an Atlas at the same time, one on each ML, then this might reduce pad "conversion", not increase it.

ULA has rebuilt the SPOC (Spaceflight Processing Operations Center) building into a second vehicle integration facility for Vulcan at their launch site in Florida to essentially double their possible flight rate.

Edit to add:

Vulcan: Launch platform rolls to pad for first time
January 29, 2021

https://blog.ulalaunch.com/blog/vulcan-centaur-launch-platform-rolls-to-pad-for-first-time
« Last Edit: 01/19/2023 04:48 pm by whitelancer64 »
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline abaddon

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Here's a link to a post I made with a graph of "EELV" launch cadence over the first five years since maiden launch, launch aligned, for HII, Atlas V, Delta IV, Ariane V, and Falcon 9: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46338.msg2450278#msg2450278.  I'm reattaching the graph for reference here, as it seems relevant.
« Last Edit: 01/20/2023 03:53 pm by abaddon »

Offline seb21051

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So, it all comes down to whatever the best production rate BO can manage for their BE-4s. And in the longer term, for both of the affected LVs.

Offline gongora

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ULA doesn't really have a great need to quickly ramp production on Vulcan for the first couple years.  They'll need a few a year at first, and then they'll need it at full rate when the Atlas V's for Amazon run out.

Offline Comga

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Here's a link to a post I made with a graph of "EELV" launch cadence over the first five years since maiden launch, launch aligned, for HII, Atlas V, Delta IV, Ariane V, and Falcon 9: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46338.msg2450278#msg2450278.  I'm reattaching the graph for reference here, as it seems relevant.

According to this terrific graph, in their first years, Atlas V, Delta IV, HII, Ariane 5, and Falcon 9 had a TOTAL of SIX additional launches.
So the proposition is that ULA will launch 1.5X as many Vulcans in the partial year after its debut as the combined track record of all five predecessors.
“Aspirational” is generous.

The fastest “first ten” was Falcon 9 in just under FOUR years.
We will see if ULA, with their “MethaLOX Atlas VI” Vulcan can match that.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline DanClemmensen

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ULA doesn't really have a great need to quickly ramp production on Vulcan for the first couple years.  They'll need a few a year at first, and then they'll need it at full rate when the Atlas V's for Amazon run out.
Kuiper needs to launch 1638 satellites by 2026 to meet the FCC deadline. I don't think they can do this on their nine Atlas Vs, so they need those 38 Vulcan launches.

Online AmigaClone

Here's a link to a post I made with a graph of "EELV" launch cadence over the first five years since maiden launch, launch aligned, for HII, Atlas V, Delta IV, Ariane V, and Falcon 9: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46338.msg2450278#msg2450278.  I'm reattaching the graph for reference here, as it seems relevant.

According to this terrific graph, in their first years, Atlas V, Delta IV, HII, Ariane 5, and Falcon 9 had a TOTAL of SIX additional launches.
So the proposition is that ULA will launch 1.5X as many Vulcans in the partial year after its debut as the combined track record of all five predecessors.
“Aspirational” is generous.

The fastest “first ten” was Falcon 9 in just under FOUR years.
We will see if ULA, with their “MethaLOX Atlas VI” Vulcan can match that.

I personally suspect that even if ULA had the ability to quickly ramp up production on Vulcan, they might not be able to accomplish that feat due to lack of BE-4 engines. Vulcan's cadence will likely be set by the twin factors of payloads being ready to launch and the first stage engines.

It actually took just over FOUR years for Falcon 9 to launch it's "first ten". On the other hand, there also was a 15 month gap between the second and third launches of the Falcon 9 V1.0. There also was a major revision to the Falcon 9 between the fifth and sixth launches.

Offline deadman1204

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So, it all comes down to whatever the best production rate BO can manage for their BE-4s. And in the longer term, for both of the affected LVs.
It also comes down to payloads. SN will be lucky to launch once this year. No military launches until the first two launches, all engine qualifications are done, plus a pile of other paperwork.

I'd like to point out the OP's list is complete make believe. NASA has zero of those SN CRS flights scheduled.
« Last Edit: 01/20/2023 06:47 pm by deadman1204 »

Offline DanClemmensen

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It seems that Vulcan is built in Huntsville and then moved to Florida on Rocketship. On the initial shipment, the ship carried one Vulcan. Is this the max? Rocketship takes 8 days on the journey, one way, so probably 18 days round trip including turnaround. That would mean 20 trips per year. I think the ship is also used for Atlas V and will be used for the last Delta IV Heavies.

If Rocketship can carry an average of two or more Vulcans, this will not constrain the launch rate. Is there an alternate means of transport?

How to ULA rockets get to Vandenberg?

Offline Vahe231991

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It seems that Vulcan is built in Huntsville and then moved to Florida on Rocketship. On the initial shipment, the ship carried one Vulcan. Is this the max? Rocketship takes 8 days on the journey, one way, so probably 18 days round trip including turnaround. That would mean 20 trips per year. I think the ship is also used for Atlas V and will be used for the last Delta IV Heavies.

If Rocketship can carry an average of two or more Vulcans, this will not constrain the launch rate. Is there an alternate means of transport?

How to ULA rockets get to Vandenberg?
ULA rockets are transported to Vandenberg SFB by boat from Cape Canaveral by crossing the Panama Canal after sailing across the Gulf of Mexico.

Offline tbellman

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It seems that Vulcan is built in Huntsville and then moved to Florida on Rocketship. On the initial shipment, the ship carried one Vulcan. Is this the max? Rocketship takes 8 days on the journey, one way, so probably 18 days round trip including turnaround. That would mean 20 trips per year. I think the ship is also used for Atlas V and will be used for the last Delta IV Heavies.

If Rocketship can carry an average of two or more Vulcans, this will not constrain the launch rate. Is there an alternate means of transport?

How to ULA rockets get to Vandenberg?

R/S RocketShip can carry an entire Delta IV Heavy rocket, with all three boosters, and including the second stage and payload fairings.  See ULA's page about RocketShip.  (That page says payload, but the image on their Flickr says payload fairing, and the latter makes more sense to me.)  And R/S RocketShip is used for shipping to California as well.

While I believe Vulcan is slightly wider than the Delta IV boosters, based on the photos, it looks like they ought to be able to fit three Vulcan boosters side by side in the cargo hold.  But certainly two, with space to spare.

Whether they can fit two Centaur V second stages and two sets of fairings at the same time, though, I don't know.

Offline Jim

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ULA rockets are transported to Vandenberg SFB by boat from Cape Canaveral by crossing the Panama Canal after sailing across the Gulf of Mexico.

From Decatur
« Last Edit: 01/20/2023 09:00 pm by Jim »

Offline Jim

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We have seen that methane GSE can require some testing and debugging for a large rocket, notably Starship. It's probably easier than Hydrogen a lot easier than hydrogen, but it's still going to be new. If Vulcan needs to roll back a few times we should not be surprised: it's normal and presumably it's in the schedule.


Already been done.

Offline DanClemmensen

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It seems that Vulcan is built in Huntsville and then moved to Florida on Rocketship. On the initial shipment, the ship carried one Vulcan. Is this the max? Rocketship takes 8 days on the journey, one way, so probably 18 days round trip including turnaround. That would mean 20 trips per year. I think the ship is also used for Atlas V and will be used for the last Delta IV Heavies.

If Rocketship can carry an average of two or more Vulcans, this will not constrain the launch rate. Is there an alternate means of transport?

How to ULA rockets get to Vandenberg?
ULA rockets are transported to Vandenberg SFB by boat from Cape Canaveral by crossing the Panama Canal after sailing across the Gulf of Mexico.
Yep, that's what Wikipedia says:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RS_RocketShip
That article says it takes 3 weeks one way. There are no further Atlas V or Delta IV heavy flights from Vandenberg except possibly Kuiper on Atlas V. I have no idea if Kuiper will need Vandenberg launches.

Offline Vahe231991

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It seems that Vulcan is built in Huntsville and then moved to Florida on Rocketship. On the initial shipment, the ship carried one Vulcan. Is this the max? Rocketship takes 8 days on the journey, one way, so probably 18 days round trip including turnaround. That would mean 20 trips per year. I think the ship is also used for Atlas V and will be used for the last Delta IV Heavies.

If Rocketship can carry an average of two or more Vulcans, this will not constrain the launch rate. Is there an alternate means of transport?

How to ULA rockets get to Vandenberg?
ULA rockets are transported to Vandenberg SFB by boat from Cape Canaveral by crossing the Panama Canal after sailing across the Gulf of Mexico.
Yep, that's what Wikipedia says:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RS_RocketShip
That article says it takes 3 weeks one way. There are no further Atlas V or Delta IV heavy flights from Vandenberg except possibly Kuiper on Atlas V. I have no idea if Kuiper will need Vandenberg launches.
Cape Canaveral will be launch site for Atlas V rockets slated to launch Kuiper satellites. The KuiperSat-1 and KuiperSat-2 will be lofted to space as part of the maiden launch of the Vulcan rocket, and Amazon last year won a contract to launch Kuiper satellites aboard 38 Vulcan rockets.

Offline DanClemmensen

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It seems that Vulcan is built in Huntsville and then moved to Florida on Rocketship. On the initial shipment, the ship carried one Vulcan. Is this the max? Rocketship takes 8 days on the journey, one way, so probably 18 days round trip including turnaround. That would mean 20 trips per year. I think the ship is also used for Atlas V and will be used for the last Delta IV Heavies.

If Rocketship can carry an average of two or more Vulcans, this will not constrain the launch rate. Is there an alternate means of transport?

How to ULA rockets get to Vandenberg?
ULA rockets are transported to Vandenberg SFB by boat from Cape Canaveral by crossing the Panama Canal after sailing across the Gulf of Mexico.
Yep, that's what Wikipedia says:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RS_RocketShip
That article says it takes 3 weeks one way. There are no further Atlas V or Delta IV heavy flights from Vandenberg except possibly Kuiper on Atlas V. I have no idea if Kuiper will need Vandenberg launches.
Cape Canaveral will be launch site for Atlas V rockets slated to launch Kuiper satellites. The KuiperSat-1 and KuiperSat-2 will be lofted to space as part of the maiden launch of the Vulcan rocket, and Amazon last year won a contract to launch Kuiper satellites aboard 38 Vulcan rockets.
See:
   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuiper_Systems
Those two satellites are for an initial test and will fly on the initial test Vulcan Centaur. They were supposed to fly on APBL's RS1, but RS1 is having problems so last month they shifted.  The production Kuiper satellites will fly on multiple different LVs, including nine Atlas V. The other 3 LV types have not flown yet: 38 Vulcan Centaur, 18 Arianne 6, and 16 New Glenn. with additional options on New Glenn. All of these contracts were announced at the same time.

I do not know how to evaluate which launches will occur first, but since new rocket have a record of low cadence in the first few years I suspect the Atlas V launches will happen fairly soon.

As seen by an outside observer, it appears that Kuiper will need to launch on either Chinese launchers or on F9 to meet the FCC deadline, but nontechnical issues make both of these of these unacceptable. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Offline DanClemmensen

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Same pad, but different mobile launch platforms for the different rockets.  They've already done some tanking tests with the Vulcan pathfinder, so not starting from scratch there.

If there is room to stack a Vulcan and an Atlas at the same time, one on each ML, then this might reduce pad "conversion", not increase it.

ULA has rebuilt the SPOC (Spaceflight Processing Operations Center) building into a second vehicle integration facility for Vulcan at their launch site in Florida to essentially double their possible flight rate.

Edit to add:

Vulcan: Launch platform rolls to pad for first time
January 29, 2021

https://blog.ulalaunch.com/blog/vulcan-centaur-launch-platform-rolls-to-pad-for-first-time
...And reasonably enough the professionals are way ahead of me on this. See:
     https://spacenews.com/amazon-signs-multibillion-dollar-project-kuiper-launch-contracts/
As part of the Kuiper deal in April 2022, in addition to the 38 launches the deal covers a second (mobile) Vulcan launch platform so ULA can have two Vulcans undergoing launch prep, effectively doubling the launch cadence. I think this means we are back to the build rate being the constraint, and the BE-4 supply being the constraint on the build rate.

Offline ZachS09

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I think we're going off topic with the discussion of the Kuiper satellite launches and Vulcan contracts. It should be in whichever thread is dedicated to Vulcan launching Kuiper.

These additions on Next Spaceflight are obviously subject to change, and who knows how many Vulcans will be launched this year?
Liftoff for St. Jude's! Go Dragon, Go Falcon, Godspeed Inspiration4!

Offline Vahe231991

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I think we're going off topic with the discussion of the Kuiper satellite launches and Vulcan contracts. It should be in whichever thread is dedicated to Vulcan launching Kuiper.

These additions on Next Spaceflight are obviously subject to change, and who knows how many Vulcans will be launched this year?
The NextSpaceFlight website now lists 11 planned Vulcan launches for 2023 instead of 10. Therefore, the posting of this thread was quite premature, especially the title, because NextSpaceFlight routinely makes changes to expected launch windows for upcoming launches for which no firm date is set.

Offline seb21051

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While we're going off topic to Kuiper launches, (Do we have a Kuiper Constellation Section anywhere?)

It occurs to me that if it takes 83 launches from the various LVs to get half the constellation up by 2026, these same LVs are going to be quite busy launching another 83-odd times to get the balance into orbit by 2029.

At least some with (barely) reusable hardware. Which makes one wonder what the average cost per launch is likely to be. And how many satellites each type of LV would be able to hoist.

Edit: Found the numbers for each LV:

"35 to 40 for Arianespace’s Ariane 6, 61 for Blue Origin’s New Glenn, and 45 for United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan Centaur."

And the cost for the first 83 launches is $5B, which equates to about $50M per launch.
« Last Edit: 01/21/2023 04:07 am by seb21051 »

Offline Alvian@IDN

The NextSpaceFlight website now lists 11 planned Vulcan launches for 2023 instead of 10. Therefore, the posting of this thread was quite premature, especially the title, because NextSpaceFlight routinely makes changes to expected launch windows for upcoming launches for which no firm date is set.

Explanation
First of all, the Demo launch of DreamChaser is missing, which is supposed to be the second launch of the Vulcan rocket.
« Last Edit: 01/22/2023 11:09 am by Alvian@IDN »
My parents was just being born when the Apollo program is over. Why we are still stuck in this stagnation, let's go forward again

Offline abaddon

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And the cost for the first 83 launches is $5B, which equates to about $50M per launch.
Source?

(5B/83 is $62 million)

Offline gongora

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Since when is Dreamchaser doing a demo flight?

Offline DanClemmensen

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Since when is Dreamchaser doing a demo flight?
SNC demo-1 has been listed as the second Vulcan flight for a long time. NSSL requires that Vulcan fly two non-NSSL flights prior to the first NSSL flight. presumably, you get a big discount if you are willing to fly on an LV demo flight.
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNC_Demo-1
« Last Edit: 01/22/2023 02:47 pm by DanClemmensen »

Offline gongora

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Since when is Dreamchaser doing a demo flight?
SNC demo-1 has been listed as the second Vulcan flight for a long time. NSSL requires that Vulcan fly two non-NSSL flights prior to the first NSSL flight. presumably, you get a big discount if you are willing to fly on an LV demo flight.
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNC_Demo-1

But where did the "Demo-1" name come from?  Did the person writing the Wikipedia article make it up?  Is there really a demo mission, or is the first flight SNC-1?  The people writing these space articles on Wikipedia don't always know what they're talking about.  The original plan for Dream Chaser when they got the award didn't have a demo flight.

Offline DanClemmensen

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Since when is Dreamchaser doing a demo flight?
SNC demo-1 has been listed as the second Vulcan flight for a long time. NSSL requires that Vulcan fly two non-NSSL flights prior to the first NSSL flight. presumably, you get a big discount if you are willing to fly on an LV demo flight.
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNC_Demo-1

But where did the "Demo-1" name come from?  Did the person writing the Wikipedia article make it up?  Is there really a demo mission, or is the first flight SNC-1?  The people writing these space articles on Wikipedia don't always know what they're talking about.  The original plan for Dream Chaser when they got the award didn't have a demo flight.
What?? How could Wikipedia possibly be wrong???     :)
I think you are correct: A cursory look at the article's references failed to find any mention of "demo".

I do wonder if NASA is OK with flying a full-up CRS mission on an LV certification flight.

Going deeper, we find that Tory Bruno calls this "the first of the six missions"
     https://www.sncorp.com/news-archive/snc-selects-ula-for-dream-chaser-spacecraft-launches/
That would make it SNC-CRS1.

Going deeper still we find that SNC claime there will be seven flights:
   https://www.sierraspace.com/space-transportation/dream-chaser-spaceplane/
So now I'm even more confused than I usually am.
« Last Edit: 01/22/2023 06:00 pm by DanClemmensen »

Offline gongora

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I'd guess there won't be important equipment on the first flight.

Offline Comga

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I'd guess there won't be important equipment on the first flight.

If you mean that NASA won’t place mission critical hardware on the DreamChaser cargo inaugural flight, that’s assured and seen on the corresponding flights for Dragon and Cygnus.
They won’t send EMU hardware.
Wasn’t it “tee shirts and…” something else inexpensive but sent on every cargo flight?
They can always stock up on water. 
Maybe prove out a powered freezer by stocking it with ice cream. The astronauts won’t starve without it or get fat with extra allotments. ;)
« Last Edit: 01/22/2023 08:44 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline whitelancer64

ULA doesn't really have a great need to quickly ramp production on Vulcan for the first couple years.  They'll need a few a year at first, and then they'll need it at full rate when the Atlas V's for Amazon run out.

We know Blue Origin already had 8 Vulcan rockets in work flow at Decatur as of June 22, 2022

"We have sold 70 Vulcans.  The first 8 are in flow in the Rocket Factory"

https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/1539714940897984514
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
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Offline whitelancer64

It seems that Vulcan is built in Huntsville and then moved to Florida on Rocketship. On the initial shipment, the ship carried one Vulcan. Is this the max? Rocketship takes 8 days on the journey, one way, so probably 18 days round trip including turnaround. That would mean 20 trips per year. I think the ship is also used for Atlas V and will be used for the last Delta IV Heavies.

If Rocketship can carry an average of two or more Vulcans, this will not constrain the launch rate. Is there an alternate means of transport?

How to ULA rockets get to Vandenberg?

Atlas V rockets are just small enough to be loaded on an Antonov AN-124 aircraft and flown to either Canaveral or Vandenberg.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline deadman1204

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I think we're going off topic with the discussion of the Kuiper satellite launches and Vulcan contracts. It should be in whichever thread is dedicated to Vulcan launching Kuiper.

These additions on Next Spaceflight are obviously subject to change, and who knows how many Vulcans will be launched this year?
The NextSpaceFlight website now lists 11 planned Vulcan launches for 2023 instead of 10. Therefore, the posting of this thread was quite premature, especially the title, because NextSpaceFlight routinely makes changes to expected launch windows for upcoming launches for which no firm date is set.
Just because its on the internet doesn't mean its true.

Offline whitelancer64

I'd guess there won't be important equipment on the first flight.

If you mean that NASA won’t place mission critical hardware on the DreamChaser cargo inaugural flight, that’s assured and seen on the corresponding flights for Dragon and Cygnus.
They won’t send EMU hardware.
Wasn’t it “tee shirts and…” something else inexpensive but sent on every cargo flight?
They can always stock up on water. 
Maybe prove out a powered freezer by stocking it with ice cream. The astronauts won’t starve without it or get fat with extra allotments. ;)

The soubriquet is "t-shirts, tang, and toilet paper" or sometimes just two of those three.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline whitelancer64

Since when is Dreamchaser doing a demo flight?
SNC demo-1 has been listed as the second Vulcan flight for a long time. NSSL requires that Vulcan fly two non-NSSL flights prior to the first NSSL flight. presumably, you get a big discount if you are willing to fly on an LV demo flight.
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNC_Demo-1

But where did the "Demo-1" name come from?  Did the person writing the Wikipedia article make it up?  Is there really a demo mission, or is the first flight SNC-1?  The people writing these space articles on Wikipedia don't always know what they're talking about.  The original plan for Dream Chaser when they got the award didn't have a demo flight.

I thought there had always been a demo flight planned.

This is the earliest reference to a "Demo-1" flight that I can find online:


Chris Bergin - NSF
@NASASpaceflight

"A glimpse into SNC's Dream Chaser mission control (FCR).

DEMO-1 - the First Cargo Dream Chaser (named Tenacity) - launches on the second Vulcan launch in 2022."

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1336718371086364673
« Last Edit: 01/23/2023 03:23 pm by whitelancer64 »
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline Vahe231991

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Since when is Dreamchaser doing a demo flight?
SNC demo-1 has been listed as the second Vulcan flight for a long time. NSSL requires that Vulcan fly two non-NSSL flights prior to the first NSSL flight. presumably, you get a big discount if you are willing to fly on an LV demo flight.
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNC_Demo-1

But where did the "Demo-1" name come from?  Did the person writing the Wikipedia article make it up?  Is there really a demo mission, or is the first flight SNC-1?  The people writing these space articles on Wikipedia don't always know what they're talking about.  The original plan for Dream Chaser when they got the award didn't have a demo flight.

I thought there had always been a demo flight planned.

This is the earliest reference to a "Demo-1" flight that I can find online:


Chris Bergin - NSF
@NASASpaceflight

"A glimpse into SNC's Dream Chaser mission control (FCR).

DEMO-1 - the First Cargo Dream Chaser (named Tenacity) - launches on the second Vulcan launch in 2022."

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1336718371086364673
Thanks for doing some research on whether the first planned Dream Chaser orbital flight is really called Demo-1, because when I went on Wikipedia, I noticed that the article "SNC Demo-1" was created in May 2020, months before the NSF tweet mentioning Demo-1 by name was written.

Offline DanClemmensen

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Since when is Dreamchaser doing a demo flight?
SNC demo-1 has been listed as the second Vulcan flight for a long time. NSSL requires that Vulcan fly two non-NSSL flights prior to the first NSSL flight. presumably, you get a big discount if you are willing to fly on an LV demo flight.
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNC_Demo-1

But where did the "Demo-1" name come from?  Did the person writing the Wikipedia article make it up?  Is there really a demo mission, or is the first flight SNC-1?  The people writing these space articles on Wikipedia don't always know what they're talking about.  The original plan for Dream Chaser when they got the award didn't have a demo flight.

I thought there had always been a demo flight planned.

This is the earliest reference to a "Demo-1" flight that I can find online:


Chris Bergin - NSF
@NASASpaceflight

"A glimpse into SNC's Dream Chaser mission control (FCR).

DEMO-1 - the First Cargo Dream Chaser (named Tenacity) - launches on the second Vulcan launch in 2022."

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1336718371086364673
Thanks for doing some research on whether the first planned Dream Chaser orbital flight is really called Demo-1, because when I went on Wikipedia, I noticed that the article "SNC Demo-1" was created in May 2020, months before the NSF tweet mentioning Demo-1 by name was written.
Wikipedia calls this "citeogenisis". It occurs when a journalist uses Wikipedia and Wikipedia then cites the journalist's article as a source. AFIAK, we currently do not have an "official" nomenclature for this flight. We also don't have official nomenclature for the Dream Chaser CRS flights of which this may or may not be the first.  The name will not alter the actual facts, but it would be nice to have an official name.

Offline Conexion Espacial

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Maybe this thread was not necessary, but not having a concrete calendar, it is difficult to know when will be the launches, I already made some changes leaving the flights that possibly we will see this year (optimistic calendar as if I were Elon Musk  ;D ) and the others moving them to 2024, many flights are in "NET 2023" and we are in January, so it is difficult to define them with a date within the application.


Let's hope that after the first flight of Vulcan, we will have a decent schedule of the next launches, not only depending on the first flight, but also on the suppliers, such as Blue Origin...
« Last Edit: 01/23/2023 07:26 pm by Conexion Espacial »
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Offline deadman1204

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Maybe this thread was not necessary, but not having a concrete calendar, it is difficult to know when will be the launches, I already made some changes leaving the flights that possibly we will see this year (optimistic calendar as if I were Elon Musk  ;D ) and the others moving them to 2024, many flights are in "NET 2023" and we are in January, so it is difficult to define them with a date within the application.


Let's hope that after the first flight of Vulcan, we will have a decent schedule of the next launches, not only depending on the first flight, but also on the suppliers, such as Blue Origin...
Maybe you should mention on the calendar that all dates are complete speculation? People tend to take lists like that as fact.

Offline DanClemmensen

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ULA and its predecessor Lockheed Martin are highly respected and competent organizations. ULA's current active launcher is Atlas V and Vulcan is widely perceived as its technological descendant in many ways.

The first Atlas V launch was in August 2002. The second launch was in May 2003, nine months later.  A first flight is usually considered to be a test flight for a reason, and it takes time to evaluate it even it even if it is perfect.

If Vulcan's first flight is in March 2023, when will the second flight occur?


Offline Hog

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It seems that Vulcan is built in Huntsville and then moved to Florida on Rocketship. On the initial shipment, the ship carried one Vulcan. Is this the max? Rocketship takes 8 days on the journey, one way, so probably 18 days round trip including turnaround. That would mean 20 trips per year. I think the ship is also used for Atlas V and will be used for the last Delta IV Heavies.

If Rocketship can carry an average of two or more Vulcans, this will not constrain the launch rate. Is there an alternate means of transport?

How to ULA rockets get to Vandenberg?

Atlas V rockets are just small enough to be loaded on an Antonov AN-124 aircraft and flown to either Canaveral or Vandenberg.
I'm curious, has this capability been demonstrated before?
Paul

Offline arachnitect

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It seems that Vulcan is built in Huntsville and then moved to Florida on Rocketship. On the initial shipment, the ship carried one Vulcan. Is this the max? Rocketship takes 8 days on the journey, one way, so probably 18 days round trip including turnaround. That would mean 20 trips per year. I think the ship is also used for Atlas V and will be used for the last Delta IV Heavies.

If Rocketship can carry an average of two or more Vulcans, this will not constrain the launch rate. Is there an alternate means of transport?

How to ULA rockets get to Vandenberg?

Atlas V rockets are just small enough to be loaded on an Antonov AN-124 aircraft and flown to either Canaveral or Vandenberg.
I'm curious, has this capability been demonstrated before?

https://blog.ulalaunch.com/blog/mars-2020-atlas-v-rocket-arrives-at-launch-site
« Last Edit: 01/24/2023 09:00 pm by arachnitect »

Offline whitelancer64

It seems that Vulcan is built in Huntsville and then moved to Florida on Rocketship. On the initial shipment, the ship carried one Vulcan. Is this the max? Rocketship takes 8 days on the journey, one way, so probably 18 days round trip including turnaround. That would mean 20 trips per year. I think the ship is also used for Atlas V and will be used for the last Delta IV Heavies.

If Rocketship can carry an average of two or more Vulcans, this will not constrain the launch rate. Is there an alternate means of transport?

How to ULA rockets get to Vandenberg?

Atlas V rockets are just small enough to be loaded on an Antonov AN-124 aircraft and flown to either Canaveral or Vandenberg.
I'm curious, has this capability been demonstrated before?

Yep, ever since the very first Atlas V launch.

https://artsandculture.google.com/asset/stages-of-the-first-atlas-v-rocket-are-offloaded-from-a-russian-antonov-an-124-aircraft-at-cape-canaveral-air-force-station/
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline Vahe231991

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ULA and its predecessor Lockheed Martin are highly respected and competent organizations. ULA's current active launcher is Atlas V and Vulcan is widely perceived as its technological descendant in many ways.

The first Atlas V launch was in August 2002. The second launch was in May 2003, nine months later.  A first flight is usually considered to be a test flight for a reason, and it takes time to evaluate it even it even if it is perfect.

If Vulcan's first flight is in March 2023, when will the second flight occur?
Sierra Nevada Corporation said on Twitter last September that the first Dream Chaser orbital launch will take place in the summer of this year, but because no firm date has yet been set the first orbital flight of the Dream Chaser, and the NextSpaceFlight website has changed the number of Vulcan launches planned for 2023 to five, it is possible that the second Vulcan launch could occur in Q3 2023.

Offline DanClemmensen

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ULA and its predecessor Lockheed Martin are highly respected and competent organizations. ULA's current active launcher is Atlas V and Vulcan is widely perceived as its technological descendant in many ways.

The first Atlas V launch was in August 2002. The second launch was in May 2003, nine months later.  A first flight is usually considered to be a test flight for a reason, and it takes time to evaluate it even it even if it is perfect.

If Vulcan's first flight is in March 2023, when will the second flight occur?
Sierra Nevada Corporation [said] that the first Dream Chaser orbital launch will take place in the summer of this year, but because no firm date has yet been set the first orbital flight of the Dream Chaser, and the NextSpaceFlight website has changed the number of Vulcan launches planned for 2023 to five, it is possible that the second Vulcan launch could occur in Q3 2023.
But this is even worse. If the Dream chaser flight is "summer" and is also still the second flight, then ULA will have less than six months to launch the remaining three flights in 2023, or 2 months per flight. That's unprecedented for a new orbital launcher in the last 50 years.

The five Vulcan launches is in addition to four or more Atlas V launches and one Delta IV heavy, for a total of ten or more ULA launches in 2023. ULA has not launched more than 8 times in one calendar year since 2016.

 

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