Who will win the war between Space Tugs and Small Launchers?

[Tywin]

Who will win this war in the future?

https://spacenews.com/euroconsult-last-mile-logistics/

[Blackjax]

Italian firms D-Orbit and Group of Astrodynamics for the Use of Space Systems (GAUSS) as well as U.S. companies Momentus, Northrop Grumman Innovation Systems and Spaceflight Inc. have developed, manufactured, tested or flown orbital transfer vehicles. Seven additional companies are preparing to enter the market with initial flights scheduled in the next three years. The companies are: Atomos, Exotrail, Firefly Aerospace, Launcher, Space Machines, Exolaunch and Impulse Space.

Interesting, there are even more than I realized in the works. The wider the array of technical and service offerings, the more likely it is that someone will dial in the right mix.  I do agree with the article that this all depends on the success of Starship and other offerings bringing launch prices way down.

[high road]

Most orbits that would make the extra cost of a smallsat launcher acceptable, would be too much for a space tug to get to from another orbit IMO. Space tugs could be better used as mission extention vehicles.

I do think both will service very small markets, and that seems to me the main reason why they claim that constellations, the only market segment with considerable growth at the moment, would be their main customer. In reality, constellations will not make extensive use of either smallsat launchers or space tugs.

[Vahe231991]

Most orbits that would make the extra cost of a smallsat launcher acceptable, would be too much for a space tug to get to from another orbit IMO. Space tugs could be better used as mission extention vehicles.

I do think both will service very small markets, and that seems to me the main reason why they claim that constellations, the only market segment with considerable growth at the moment, would be their main customer. In reality, constellations will not make extensive use of either smallsat launchers or space tugs.

Space tugs might potentially deorbit a handful of Cubesats launched by small launchers if those CubeSats suffer a failure in their communications apparati. However, large space tugs will win if they dock with derelict Soviet-era ELINT satellites to allow those satellites to decay from orbit over the course of two weeks.

[RoadWithoutEnd]

Small launch providers that fail to upgrade to big launch tend to chase markets that inevitably lead to solid fuels and expendability.  They need high sustained margins to handle their fixed costs, and that puts them on the well-trod downward spiral of military niche contracting.  Meanwhile, large (especially reuse-enabled) launchers can apparently (knock on wood) build entire infrastructures around their lower-percentage but higher-absolute gains, so tugs are a natural step for them.

Vicious vs. virtuous cycle.

So tugs it is.

[DeimosDream]

Option #3: both survive in their own niche and increase in flight rates. No ‘winner’.

[TrevorMonty]

There is market for both. Spacetugs and their payloads are still relying on rideshare launches. If spacetug goes up with satellites then that extra is HW and mass which adds to cost. Reuseable spacetugs need to refuel, which requires visit to fuel depot with additional DV they then need reliably dock with satellite and transfer it to destination orbit. Lot of extra steps, time and fuel involved.

Dedicated small LV and medium RLVs will deliver satellites directly to destination orbit with satellite operator dictating launch schedule.

[Vahe231991]

Russia could build a batch of 150 space tugs to be launched into space aboard the Soyuz-2.1a to dock with derelict Soviet-era communications satellites in order to deorbit those satellites.

[trimeta]

Russia could build a batch of 150 space tugs to be launched into space aboard the Soyuz-2.1a to dock with derelict Soviet-era communications satellites in order to deorbit those satellites.

I could find unicorns dancing in the Falcon 9 flame duct, too. Or at least, I'd be far more likely to discover said mythical equines than Russia is to spend money cleaning up their historical space debris unless international action forces their hand.

[deadman1204]

Most orbits that would make the extra cost of a smallsat launcher acceptable, would be too much for a space tug to get to from another orbit IMO. Space tugs could be better used as mission extention vehicles.

I do think both will service very small markets, and that seems to me the main reason why they claim that constellations, the only market segment with considerable growth at the moment, would be their main customer. In reality, constellations will not make extensive use of either smallsat launchers or space tugs.

This.
I really don't think its a "war" with a binary choice. Tugs are not the end all answer to everything.

On their own, tugs add more complexity and risk to a mission, but if we lump them in with general satellite servicing, they will have a place.