Quote from: hoku on 10/05/2021 05:13 pmIt's too bad that the external consultants did inform BO management about the three secret ingredients for becoming a successful launch provider:1) engines2) Engines3) ENGINESWhile BO lacks engines qualified for an orbital launch vehicle, it has to fund the whole "standing army" at all the various sites. Yet it seems that in 2018, when BO needed to curtail spending, the top management decided that engine development, testing and qualification was of lesser importance.Well, at least BO has the tallest water tower on the eastern seaboard... They had engines, but 0 vision. The BE3 is working well since 2015. They could have done an elongated NS, version 2 with 3 BE3 for stage 1 and a single engine stage 2. Be able to launch, I don't know, let's say 250kg in LEO.But at least get orbital, launch something, get experience and get ready for the next big thing.OTOH, BE4 being put on the back burner seems hard to grasp even if we go by Occam's razor. They couldn't be that dumb. It has to be some evil scheme.Quote from: dglow on 10/05/2021 05:12 pmFor my money the far more telling reveal from Eric’s article is how out-of-touch Blue was (is) with respect to their costs/estimates and producibility. If they fail against SpaceX it will be because of this – not the homogeneity of their leadership.That's what happens when there is a continuous in-flow of money, no questions asked. As with everything in the world, what's for free is wasted.
It's too bad that the external consultants did inform BO management about the three secret ingredients for becoming a successful launch provider:1) engines2) Engines3) ENGINESWhile BO lacks engines qualified for an orbital launch vehicle, it has to fund the whole "standing army" at all the various sites. Yet it seems that in 2018, when BO needed to curtail spending, the top management decided that engine development, testing and qualification was of lesser importance.Well, at least BO has the tallest water tower on the eastern seaboard...
For my money the far more telling reveal from Eric’s article is how out-of-touch Blue was (is) with respect to their costs/estimates and producibility. If they fail against SpaceX it will be because of this – not the homogeneity of their leadership.
It's been said before, but given Bezos' vision for Blue Origin, perhaps he should pivot away from building rockets and start building payloads.
There's another elephant in the room here.If you took SpaceX, with all their prowess, and had them attempt an orbital or lunar city, they'd also fail.They'd fail even before implementation - they'd fail in connecting the goal with the next objective, since those are a lot more difficult at the scales we're talking about.
Quote from: billh on 10/05/2021 10:25 pmIt's been said before, but given Bezos' vision for Blue Origin, perhaps he should pivot away from building rockets and start building payloads.I think you are barking up the wrong tree. Bezos's hard-won business experience over the decades shows that you should build your own solutions whenever possible, and buy out solutions when that gives you a leg up. AWS, Amazon Air, Amazon last-mile delivery, Prime Video, Audible, Kiva, etc.
Quote from: meekGee on 10/05/2021 11:00 pmThere's another elephant in the room here.If you took SpaceX, with all their prowess, and had them attempt an orbital or lunar city, they'd also fail.They'd fail even before implementation - they'd fail in connecting the goal with the next objective, since those are a lot more difficult at the scales we're talking about.I disagree (partly) - I don't see a Martian city (what Elon wants to create) as being easier to accomplish than an orbital or lunar city.The problem is not what they want to do. The problem is that they lack a real plan with realistic intermediate steps to accomplish it.
Quote from: RedLineTrain on 10/05/2021 11:05 pmQuote from: billh on 10/05/2021 10:25 pmIt's been said before, but given Bezos' vision for Blue Origin, perhaps he should pivot away from building rockets and start building payloads.I think you are barking up the wrong tree. Bezos's hard-won business experience over the decades shows that you should build your own solutions whenever possible, and buy out solutions when that gives you a leg up. AWS, Amazon Air, Amazon last-mile delivery, Prime Video, Audible, Kiva, etc.I'll be honest, I'm starting to lean towards the notion that Bezo is not some business experienced leader as portrayed. I think he got lucky with Amazon(Walmart and Sears really dropped the ball on that one), and I don't think he is why Amazon is the Amazon on today. The couple of times he personally touted something new for Amazon (Fire phone anyone?) they all seemed to flop.
Quote from: ulm_atms on 10/05/2021 11:26 pmQuote from: RedLineTrain on 10/05/2021 11:05 pmQuote from: billh on 10/05/2021 10:25 pmIt's been said before, but given Bezos' vision for Blue Origin, perhaps he should pivot away from building rockets and start building payloads.I think you are barking up the wrong tree. Bezos's hard-won business experience over the decades shows that you should build your own solutions whenever possible, and buy out solutions when that gives you a leg up. AWS, Amazon Air, Amazon last-mile delivery, Prime Video, Audible, Kiva, etc.I'll be honest, I'm starting to lean towards the notion that Bezo is not some business experienced leader as portrayed. I think he got lucky with Amazon(Walmart and Sears really dropped the ball on that one), and I don't think he is why Amazon is the Amazon on today. The couple of times he personally touted something new for Amazon (Fire phone anyone?) they all seemed to flop.I think he's a top notch businessperson. A+. One of only two businesspeople that I know who can spend effectively huge amounts of capital as fast as it comes in the door. Amazon is a well-oiled machine and we know where the buck has stopped for many years.But that doesn't mean that he's infallible. He learned the wrong lesson with the success of the "one click" patent strategy, for example. And his successful destruction of the National Enquirer. So from time to time you get stupidities like the boat landing patent, the 39A dispute, and the HLS bidding strategy error and subsequent ham-fisted lobbying effort and lawsuit.
BO is trying to go straight to the end with little to no middle steps. You can do that with dedicated employees, great management, and unlimited money. Only problem is they only seem to have the money.....
The Martians say that for anything above a small station, Mars is easier (and by a lot) … I think history will show that the pattern will repeat, and practical efforts for large-scale habitation (hopefully not only SpaceX) will aim at Mars.
Quote from: meekGee on 10/06/2021 12:06 amThe Martians say that for anything above a small station, Mars is easier (and by a lot) … I think history will show that the pattern will repeat, and practical efforts for large-scale habitation (hopefully not only SpaceX) will aim at Mars.Mars is easier, but the moon will always be more convenient and feel more connected. Nobody can stream/facetime/VR with 8 min of lag. That will matter a lot. I suspect those who successfully establish Martian colonies will circle back and apply their learnings to practical lunar colonies in time.
Quote from: meekGee on 10/06/2021 12:06 amThe Martians say that for anything above a small station, Mars is easier (and by a lot) … I think history will show that the pattern will repeat, and practical efforts for large-scale habitation (hopefully not only SpaceX) will aim at Mars.Mars is easier, but the moon will always be more convenient and feel more connected. Nobody can stream/facetime/VR with 8 min of lag. That will matter a lot.
I suspect those who successfully establish Martian colonies will circle back and apply their learnings to practical lunar colonies in time.
Quote from: su27k on 10/05/2021 07:48 amWith that out of the way, here's the thing some people in this thread is not getting: Just because Alexandra Abrams says there's a management problem at Blue Origin, and you too think there's a management problem at Blue Origin, this does not mean Alexandra Abrams agrees with you. In fact it's entirely possible - even likely - that you and Alexandra Abrams have the exact opposite idea of what Blue Origin's problem is, see attached diagram for an illustration of this concept. ..But to whom are you infering this ? Who cares about Abram's solutions ? To me it's just your juxtaposition. There's nothing in the article which requires Abram's manifesto for clarification. The article stands on its own.You can't have the pie and eat it too.
With that out of the way, here's the thing some people in this thread is not getting: Just because Alexandra Abrams says there's a management problem at Blue Origin, and you too think there's a management problem at Blue Origin, this does not mean Alexandra Abrams agrees with you. In fact it's entirely possible - even likely - that you and Alexandra Abrams have the exact opposite idea of what Blue Origin's problem is, see attached diagram for an illustration of this concept. ..
Quote from: su27k on 10/05/2021 07:48 amJust because Alexandra Abrams says there's a management problem at Blue Origin, and you too think there's a management problem at Blue Origin, this does not mean Alexandra Abrams agrees with you.Why would that matter in the slightest?
Just because Alexandra Abrams says there's a management problem at Blue Origin, and you too think there's a management problem at Blue Origin, this does not mean Alexandra Abrams agrees with you.
Quote from: su27k on 10/05/2021 07:48 amQuote from: Coastal Ron on 10/05/2021 06:07 amQuote from: su27k on 10/05/2021 03:48 amBut to the point, Blue Origin's senior leadership did discuss how to better motivate and inspire employees in their notes, they don't seem to be ignorant at all:Blue Origin is a 20 year old organization, and they were just discovering in 2018 that they had a morale problem? And did they solve it in the past 3 years? Sure doesn't seem like it, does it?It seems that you're under the impression I'm arguing there's no management problem at Blue Origin, that is not the case, my point is not that there's no management issues, my point is Alexandra Abrams' manifesto is inaccurate and deceptive, and one should not take it at face value, especially if you haven't actually read it.You are confused. Nothing I wrote had anything to do with what Alexandra Abrams wrote. NOTHING.
Quote from: Coastal Ron on 10/05/2021 06:07 amQuote from: su27k on 10/05/2021 03:48 amBut to the point, Blue Origin's senior leadership did discuss how to better motivate and inspire employees in their notes, they don't seem to be ignorant at all:Blue Origin is a 20 year old organization, and they were just discovering in 2018 that they had a morale problem? And did they solve it in the past 3 years? Sure doesn't seem like it, does it?It seems that you're under the impression I'm arguing there's no management problem at Blue Origin, that is not the case, my point is not that there's no management issues, my point is Alexandra Abrams' manifesto is inaccurate and deceptive, and one should not take it at face value, especially if you haven't actually read it.
Quote from: su27k on 10/05/2021 03:48 amBut to the point, Blue Origin's senior leadership did discuss how to better motivate and inspire employees in their notes, they don't seem to be ignorant at all:Blue Origin is a 20 year old organization, and they were just discovering in 2018 that they had a morale problem? And did they solve it in the past 3 years? Sure doesn't seem like it, does it?
But to the point, Blue Origin's senior leadership did discuss how to better motivate and inspire employees in their notes, they don't seem to be ignorant at all:
Being in Earth's backyard will have the same sort of cultural effect. Not only is ISRU harder, but also there's a fat, bottomless supply only two days away, with no launch window limitations even.That's a one-two combination that means it'll always be just low-g resorts, not a true independent entity.
And I doubt the Martians will be inclined to bother with the moon, not with the asteroid belt nearby.
I think there's irony here.
Elon Musk is planning to be a major source of funding for Mars colonization, and I think he sees it as a humanitarian mission, meaning no monetary ROI. For everywhere else though, there is no clear source of funding to support the initial creation of the habitats. That would be an opportunity for Jeff Bezos, who still holds the title of richest individual on Earth.
- AWS was built to solve an internal problem first, then was expanded to external customers.(snip)