Author Topic: Orbital ATK has no plans to phase out seldom-used Pegasus rocket  (Read 51048 times)

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Resuscitating an old thread.

Pegasus has another launch opportunity in 2020.
http://spacenews.com/nasa-selects-x-ray-astronomy-mission/

The next "Pegasus-class payload," IXPE, was awarded to Falcon 9.

July 08, 2019
CONTRACT RELEASE C19-018
NASA Awards Launch Services Contract for Groundbreaking Astrophysics Mission
 
NASA has selected SpaceX of Hawthorne, California, to provide launch services for the agency’s Imaging X-Ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE) mission, which will allow astronomers to discover, for the first time, the hidden details of some of the most exotic astronomical objects in our universe. 

The total cost for NASA to launch IXPE is approximately $50.3 million, which includes the launch service and other mission-related costs.

IXPE measures polarized X-rays from objects, such as black holes and neutron stars to better understand these types of cosmic phenomena and extreme environments.

The IXPE mission currently is targeted to launch in April 2021 on a Falcon 9 rocket from Launch Complex 39A in Florida. IXPE will fly three space telescopes with sensitive detectors capable of measuring the polarization of cosmic X-rays, allowing scientists to answer fundamental questions about these turbulent environments where gravitational, electric and magnetic fields are at their limits.

NASA’s Launch Services Program at Kennedy Space Center in Florida will manage the SpaceX launch service. The IXPE project office is located at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama and is managed by the Explorers Program Office at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington.

For more information about NASA programs and missions, visit: http://www.nasa.gov

Are there any other "Pegasus-class" payloads in the pipeline?  Or is ICON the final Pegasus payload?

IXPE/Falcon 9 launch thread
« Last Edit: 07/09/2019 08:39 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Online ZachS09

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Resuscitating an old thread.

Pegasus has another launch opportunity in 2020.
http://spacenews.com/nasa-selects-x-ray-astronomy-mission/

The next "Pegasus-class payload," IXPE, was awarded to Falcon 9.

July 08, 2019
CONTRACT RELEASE C19-018
NASA Awards Launch Services Contract for Groundbreaking Astrophysics Mission
 
NASA has selected SpaceX of Hawthorne, California, to provide launch services for the agency’s Imaging X-Ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE) mission, which will allow astronomers to discover, for the first time, the hidden details of some of the most exotic astronomical objects in our universe. 

The total cost for NASA to launch IXPE is approximately $50.3 million, which includes the launch service and other mission-related costs.

IXPE measures polarized X-rays from objects, such as black holes and neutron stars to better understand these types of cosmic phenomena and extreme environments.

The IXPE mission currently is targeted to launch in April 2021 on a Falcon 9 rocket from Launch Complex 39A in Florida. IXPE will fly three space telescopes with sensitive detectors capable of measuring the polarization of cosmic X-rays, allowing scientists to answer fundamental questions about these turbulent environments where gravitational, electric and magnetic fields are at their limits.

NASA’s Launch Services Program at Kennedy Space Center in Florida will manage the SpaceX launch service. The IXPE project office is located at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama and is managed by the Explorers Program Office at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington.

For more information about NASA programs and missions, visit: http://www.nasa.gov

Are there any other "Pegasus-class" payloads in the pipeline?  Or is ICON the final Pegasus payload?

IXPE/Falcon 9 launch thread

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36125.msg1963936#msg1963936

Read my theoretical post about the possibility of Pegasus’ swansong.
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Offline arachnitect

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Resuscitating an old thread.

Pegasus has another launch opportunity in 2020.
http://spacenews.com/nasa-selects-x-ray-astronomy-mission/

The next "Pegasus-class payload," IXPE, was awarded to Falcon 9.

July 08, 2019
CONTRACT RELEASE C19-018
NASA Awards Launch Services Contract for Groundbreaking Astrophysics Mission
 
NASA has selected SpaceX of Hawthorne, California, to provide launch services for the agency’s Imaging X-Ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE) mission, which will allow astronomers to discover, for the first time, the hidden details of some of the most exotic astronomical objects in our universe. 

The total cost for NASA to launch IXPE is approximately $50.3 million, which includes the launch service and other mission-related costs.

IXPE measures polarized X-rays from objects, such as black holes and neutron stars to better understand these types of cosmic phenomena and extreme environments.

The IXPE mission currently is targeted to launch in April 2021 on a Falcon 9 rocket from Launch Complex 39A in Florida. IXPE will fly three space telescopes with sensitive detectors capable of measuring the polarization of cosmic X-rays, allowing scientists to answer fundamental questions about these turbulent environments where gravitational, electric and magnetic fields are at their limits.

NASA’s Launch Services Program at Kennedy Space Center in Florida will manage the SpaceX launch service. The IXPE project office is located at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama and is managed by the Explorers Program Office at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington.

For more information about NASA programs and missions, visit: http://www.nasa.gov

Are there any other "Pegasus-class" payloads in the pipeline?  Or is ICON the final Pegasus payload?

IXPE/Falcon 9 launch thread

PUNCH/TRACERS

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=48395.0

...but the IXPE award really narrows the path forward for Pegasus.

Offline JH

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PUNCH/TRACERS

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=48395.0

...but the IXPE award really narrows the path forward for Pegasus.

At least some PUNCH team members are expecting a Falcon 9 launch.

Offline russianhalo117

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PUNCH/TRACERS

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=48395.0

...but the IXPE award really narrows the path forward for Pegasus.

At least some PUNCH team members are expecting a Falcon 9 launch.
There are two motor sets at VAFB excluding the motors for ICON.

Offline Comga

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PUNCH/TRACERS

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=48395.0

...but the IXPE award really narrows the path forward for Pegasus.

At least some PUNCH team members are expecting a Falcon 9 launch.
There are two motor sets at VAFB excluding the motors for ICON.
So you think there could be a "fire sale" launches with NGST keeping Stargazer active until two more flights get off?
I wonder what fraction of total launch costs those motor sets represent.
Could they be the dominant fraction of cost?
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline TrevorMonty

LauncherOne is direct competition to Pegasus (500kg vs 450kg to LEO) and lot cheaper ($10-15m vs $30-40m). Will take few nominal launches before it can compete for high value DOD and NASA payloads Pegasus launches. Following LauncherOne will be even more capable Firefly Alpha and Relativity Terran. Both of which will be lot cheaper than Pegasus and will most likely force VG to reduce LauncherOne price.
« Last Edit: 07/11/2019 08:14 am by TrevorMonty »

Offline russianhalo117

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PUNCH/TRACERS

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=48395.0

...but the IXPE award really narrows the path forward for Pegasus.

At least some PUNCH team members are expecting a Falcon 9 launch.
There are two motor sets at VAFB excluding the motors for ICON.
So you think there could be a "fire sale" launches with NGST keeping Stargazer active until two more flights get off?
I wonder what fraction of total launch costs those motor sets represent.
Could they be the dominant fraction of cost?
Who knows. They are early in their shelf life. Stargazer noise and emissions compliance is mainly the present limiting factor followed by the age of the airframe. Excluding the air launch capability it's redundant inside NGIS to the Minotaur-C sub-family.

Online ZachS09

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Right now, there's no launch vehicle assigned to launch SPHEREx, which weighs 178 kilograms. Maybe one of the Pegasus rockets in storage could launch SPHEREx since it's within the payload capability to SSO.

https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/explorer_spherex.htm

Also, we have PUNCH and TRACERS that are presumably within Pegasus' SSO capability, so that could be another candidate for Pegasus.

https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/explorer_punch.htm
https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/explorer_tracers.htm
Liftoff for St. Jude's! Go Dragon, Go Falcon, Godspeed Inspiration4!

Offline TrevorMonty

https://spacenews.com/spacex-wins-contract-to-launch-nasa-small-astrophysics-mission/

SpaceX undercut NGIS on this bid, offering F9R for $50m.
Even if NGIS reduce price dramatically from current $56m, can't see them matching likes of LauncherOne and Alpha on price . Both will be well under $20m.


Online ZachS09

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https://spaceflightnow.com/2019/10/10/rockets-purchased-by-stratolaunch-back-under-northrop-grumman-control/

There might be two more Pegasus missions on the manifest since Northrop Grumman bought back the spare parts from Stratolaunch.
Liftoff for St. Jude's! Go Dragon, Go Falcon, Godspeed Inspiration4!

Offline jstrotha0975

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https://spaceflightnow.com/2019/10/10/rockets-purchased-by-stratolaunch-back-under-northrop-grumman-control/

There might be two more Pegasus missions on the manifest since Northrop Grumman bought back the spare parts from Stratolaunch.

That $50 million price tho. Better off sending the 2 rockets and plane to museums.

Offline russianhalo117

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https://spaceflightnow.com/2019/10/10/rockets-purchased-by-stratolaunch-back-under-northrop-grumman-control/

There might be two more Pegasus missions on the manifest since Northrop Grumman bought back the spare parts from Stratolaunch.

That $50 million price tho. Better off sending the 2 rockets and plane to museums.
They have loaded propellant and other hazards that would need to be inserted and safed to even consider that possibility.

Offline edkyle99

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https://spaceflightnow.com/2019/10/10/rockets-purchased-by-stratolaunch-back-under-northrop-grumman-control/

There might be two more Pegasus missions on the manifest since Northrop Grumman bought back the spare parts from Stratolaunch.

That $50 million price tho. Better off sending the 2 rockets and plane to museums.
The $56 million price mentioned was on an Orbital Sciences contract.  Subsequently, Orbital merged with ATK, which later merged into Northrop Grumman.  The company now owns the motor manufacturer, which theoretically should substantially reduce the cost (and price) of a launch.  If they intend to compete, they will have to offer lower prices. 

 - Ed Kyle 

Offline ncb1397

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https://spaceflightnow.com/2019/10/10/rockets-purchased-by-stratolaunch-back-under-northrop-grumman-control/

There might be two more Pegasus missions on the manifest since Northrop Grumman bought back the spare parts from Stratolaunch.

That $50 million price tho. Better off sending the 2 rockets and plane to museums.
The $56 million price mentioned was on an Orbital Sciences contract.  Subsequently, Orbital merged with ATK, which later merged into Northrop Grumman.  The company now owns the motor manufacturer, which theoretically should substantially reduce the cost (and price) of a launch.  If they intend to compete, they will have to offer lower prices. 

 - Ed Kyle

I wouldn't read too much into it. The ICON bid was the highest the contractor thought it could be while still having a good chance of winning the contract (which they did btw). With the loss of IXPE, that calculus simply changes.  Pegasus likely can still outbid Falcon 9 given the entire rocket masses about 20% as much as the falcon 9 upper stage.
« Last Edit: 10/11/2019 09:49 pm by ncb1397 »

Offline freddo411

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https://spaceflightnow.com/2019/10/10/rockets-purchased-by-stratolaunch-back-under-northrop-grumman-control/

There might be two more Pegasus missions on the manifest since Northrop Grumman bought back the spare parts from Stratolaunch.

That $50 million price tho. Better off sending the 2 rockets and plane to museums.
The $56 million price mentioned was on an Orbital Sciences contract.  Subsequently, Orbital merged with ATK, which later merged into Northrop Grumman.  The company now owns the motor manufacturer, which theoretically should substantially reduce the cost (and price) of a launch.  If they intend to compete, they will have to offer lower prices. 

 - Ed Kyle

I wouldn't read too much into it. The ICON bid was the highest the contractor thought it could be while still having a good chance of winning the contract (which they did btw). With the loss of IXPE, that calculus simply changes.  Pegasus likely can still outbid Falcon 9 given the entire rocket masses about 20% as much as the falcon 9 upper stage.

I doubt that Pegasus has a future due to it's costs.   500kg on the monthly scheduled F9 ride share flights is priced at $2.5 million.    Pegasus can't fly their L1011 for that, much less the rocket.

Say, double that if you want to go to a somewhat different LEO orbit via upper stage delivery.   This is much, much less than Pegasus's costs.

Offline ncb1397

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https://spaceflightnow.com/2019/10/10/rockets-purchased-by-stratolaunch-back-under-northrop-grumman-control/

There might be two more Pegasus missions on the manifest since Northrop Grumman bought back the spare parts from Stratolaunch.

That $50 million price tho. Better off sending the 2 rockets and plane to museums.
The $56 million price mentioned was on an Orbital Sciences contract.  Subsequently, Orbital merged with ATK, which later merged into Northrop Grumman.  The company now owns the motor manufacturer, which theoretically should substantially reduce the cost (and price) of a launch.  If they intend to compete, they will have to offer lower prices. 

 - Ed Kyle

I wouldn't read too much into it. The ICON bid was the highest the contractor thought it could be while still having a good chance of winning the contract (which they did btw). With the loss of IXPE, that calculus simply changes.  Pegasus likely can still outbid Falcon 9 given the entire rocket masses about 20% as much as the falcon 9 upper stage.

I doubt that Pegasus has a future due to it's costs.   500kg on the monthly scheduled F9 ride share flights is priced at $2.5 million.    Pegasus can't fly their L1011 for that, much less the rocket.

Say, double that if you want to go to a somewhat different LEO orbit via upper stage delivery.   This is much, much less than Pegasus's costs.

Probably a lot more than double given it would have to drop off starlink payloads at 53 degrees and then do a 20 degree inclination change (for ICON). That is a delta v of 2.7 km/s. Not sure about IXPE and what determines the orbit there, but ICON wants to focus on the equatorial regions as interesting activity occurs there in the ionosphere.

Offline freddo411

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https://spaceflightnow.com/2019/10/10/rockets-purchased-by-stratolaunch-back-under-northrop-grumman-control/

There might be two more Pegasus missions on the manifest since Northrop Grumman bought back the spare parts from Stratolaunch.

That $50 million price tho. Better off sending the 2 rockets and plane to museums.
The $56 million price mentioned was on an Orbital Sciences contract.  Subsequently, Orbital merged with ATK, which later merged into Northrop Grumman.  The company now owns the motor manufacturer, which theoretically should substantially reduce the cost (and price) of a launch.  If they intend to compete, they will have to offer lower prices. 

 - Ed Kyle

I wouldn't read too much into it. The ICON bid was the highest the contractor thought it could be while still having a good chance of winning the contract (which they did btw). With the loss of IXPE, that calculus simply changes.  Pegasus likely can still outbid Falcon 9 given the entire rocket masses about 20% as much as the falcon 9 upper stage.

I doubt that Pegasus has a future due to it's costs.   500kg on the monthly scheduled F9 ride share flights is priced at $2.5 million.    Pegasus can't fly their L1011 for that, much less the rocket.

Say, double that if you want to go to a somewhat different LEO orbit via upper stage delivery.   This is much, much less than Pegasus's costs.

Probably a lot more than double given it would have to drop off starlink payloads at 53 degrees and then do a 20 degree inclination change (for ICON). That is a delta v of 2.7 km/s. Not sure about IXPE and what determines the orbit there, but ICON wants to focus on the equatorial regions as interesting activity occurs there in the ionosphere.

Yeah, that much of a plane change would be expensive.   I checked Momentus's website, and looks like you'd need an additional 1500Kg of fuel and upper stage to get roughly there.

I guess there are some economical niche cases between the normal ride share to SSO or 53º (at 5 million or so), and a dedicated F9 launch to a specific orbit (at 50 million-ish).

Offline Comga

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I wouldn't read too much into it. The ICON bid was the highest the contractor thought it could be while still having a good chance of winning the contract (which they did btw). With the loss of IXPE, that calculus simply changes.  Pegasus likely can still outbid Falcon 9 given the entire rocket masses about 20% as much as the falcon 9 upper stage.
Yes and No
The loss to IXPE does indicate that the balance has shifted.
But the mass is irrelevant.  The vast majority of the mass of the F9 second stage, the only part that is expended, is fuel, which is a fraction of the cost.
Pegasus is a five stage rocket with a reusable, air breathing, piloted, 200,000 kg first stage for which production ceased decades ago.  The next three stages are solid fueled, with all its storage advantages and handling disadvantages.  Most have actuated engines and the second stage has aerodynamic controls.  All that hardware is expendable.  To get to an equatorial orbit it has to launch out of a very remote island location near the equator.
Falcon 9 is a two stage, liquid fueled rocket with a reusable first stage from an active production line.  Even the payload fairings will be recovered and reused under nominal circumstances.  It can carry more than four times the payload to an equatorial orbit from the Cape.

IXPE will fly in an equatorial orbit to minimize interaction with the South Atlantic Anomaly.
If IXPE has been designed for Falcon 9, with its voluminous payload fairing and higher mass limit it would have cost much less.  Several very expensive subsystems, particularly the extendable boom and the Tip-Tilt-Rotate mechanism on its end, and the deploying solar panels, were needed to fit in the limited volume of the Pegasus.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline starchasercowboy

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L1011 is in great shape.  Plenty of spare parts, spare L1011 and repair shops that can fix components.  Stargazer flew from Mojave to Vafb to the Cape, launched Pegasus/ICON and flew back  to vafb and Mojave with no problems.  Did you see the Audi commercial that was done in August.  Stargazer looked awesome.  Other work than launching Pegasus is in the works.  This aircraft has been flying less than 900 hours since 1993 and is continuing to be maintained as if it was flown in a airliner type operation.  Ex-RAF L1011 tankers could fly again in the near future,  due to a recent contract for the DOD. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/13486/retired-raf-tristars-will-get-new-life-as-contracted-aerial-refuelers
More pilots. I think Phil Joyce was right in saying the aircraft could last up to another 5 to 10 years. Virgin Orbit still needs to prove what it says it can do. They also will need to sell a bunch of  launches to keep that factory going and keep the price down.  If they don't, they will have to raise the price just like Orbital had to do.

Tags: minotaur v pegasus 
 

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