Author Topic: CNES ESA Prometheus / Callisto proposal  (Read 101314 times)

Offline envy887

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Re: CNES ESA Prometheus / Callisto proposal
« Reply #180 on: 03/07/2019 01:39 pm »
But when I plug in the payload, ISP and structural fractions from this paper, I get much, much smaller GLOM and dry mass values, in the 800 tonne and 45 tonne range.

If you're referring to Figure 2, those are the results of the 2017 paper with overestimated second stage dry mass. As they admit themselves in that paper and therefore also present results with a more detailed mass model (though only for the 7km/s version, not for 7.6km/s. For the 7km/s version the reduction in 2nd stage GLOW is substantial, from ~270t to 157t). It's a mystery to me why they point to those faulty results (according to them) to exclude 7.6km/s in the 2018 paper.

Good point. I pulled the later mass fractions in Figure 8, and now my model matches almost exactly with the study, getting GLOM of ~1700 t for the vehicle with 6600 m/s upper stage delta-v. However, even with the same mass fractions my booster dry mass is larger than they show in Figure 10, and the 7,000 m/s upper stage vehicle doesn't quite fit... my 6800 m/s upper stage vehicle has the same GLOM as their 7000 m/s.

However, in both cases, my model clearly shows that they are underestimating the optimal upper stage DV. I'm getting GLOM optima at 7400 and 7600 m/s upper stage delta-v, depending whether I use the mass fractions from their 6600 or 7000 vehicle. As you noted, the decision to remove the 7600 m/s upper stage before going through phase 2 basically rendered this study an exercise in futility.

I ran a sensitivity analysis to upper stage mass fraction by upper stage delta-v, and it again shows that the lowest GLOM is produced by a 7500 m/s upper stage for the mass fraction ranges of 6% to 9%, which range includes the mass fraction of the LCH4/LOX upper stages they are considering. If they can beat 6%, then an 8,000 m/s upper stage is actually better. 6600 m/s is only better for hideous mass fractions of greater than 11.5%, and make for truly gigantic vehicles with GLOMs over 4000 t.

I did update my model to calculate entry burn and landing burn fuel separately, and attached it here if anyone wants to try other values.

Edit: I also ran a sensitivity to upper stage ISP, and it's not as bad as I thought. For the same booster specs and holding mass fractions constant, ISP docent really change the way GLOM optimizes in upper stage delta-v. 7500 m/s is still around the optimum upper stage delta-v, unless you can get really good vac ISP of around 367 sec, where you want to bump the upper stage delta-v even higher to ~8000 m/s. RPA lite indicates that Prometheus should get ~358 sec at 120:1 and ~362 sec at 180:1, so the longer, heavier nozzle extension probably isn't worthwhile if it affects the upper stage mass fraction even slightly. Upper stage wet mass and mass fraction are both more important.

I also plugged in LH2 upper stage mass fractions of around 0.1, and it's obvious why people like LH2 upper stages. GLOM drops significantly. Upper stage delta-v still optimizes for around 7500 m/s for a typical LH2 vac ISP, though.
« Last Edit: 03/07/2019 02:23 pm by envy887 »

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Re: CNES ESA Prometheus / Callisto proposal
« Reply #181 on: 03/08/2019 07:29 am »
https://iafastro.directory/iac/paper/id/44345/summary/
https://iafastro.directory/iac/paper/id/44345/abstract-pdf/IAC-18,C4,1,2,x44345.brief.pdf?2018-07-04.11:29:37
Quote
Paper ID: 44345
oral

69th International Astronautical Congress 2018
IAF SPACE PROPULSION SYMPOSIUM (C4)
Propulsion System (1) (1)

Author: Ms. Pamela SIMONTACCHI
ArianeGroup SAS, France, [email protected]
Mr. Roland Blasi
ArianeGroup, Germany, [email protected]

PROMETHEUS: PRECURSOR OF NEW LOW-COST ROCKET ENGINE FAMILY
All papers presented at the IAF’s International Astronautical Congresses are available to buy for non-IAF members for only €7 each.
http://www.iafastro.org/publications/iac-papers/

Offline gosnold

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Re: CNES ESA Prometheus / Callisto proposal
« Reply #182 on: 03/09/2019 11:14 am »
All papers presented at the IAF’s International Astronautical Congresses are available to buy for non-IAF members for only €7 each.
http://www.iafastro.org/publications/iac-papers/

The IAF secretariat takes forever to answer though.

Offline envy887

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Re: CNES ESA Prometheus / Callisto proposal
« Reply #183 on: 03/09/2019 03:40 pm »
For the 7km/s version the reduction in 2nd stage GLOW is substantial, from ~270t to 157t). It's a mystery to me why they point to those faulty results (according to them) to exclude 7.6km/s in the 2018 paper.

After some more modeling, I've changed my mind about that. Excluding the 7.6 km/s version does not substantially change results of the metric that is actually important: not LV GLOM, but cost per launch. I added a cost metric based on a $/kg of dry mass cost of expended upper stage hardware, plus a straight depreciation of the booster over a fixed number launches. I didn't include fuel cost, refurbishment cost, or fairing cost; those will incrementally change the cost, but shouldn't affect the optima much.

Because a larger GLOM results in a smaller expended upper stage, the optimal cost is a somewhat larger vehicle with a upper stage delta-v of 7100 or 7200 m/s. Interestingly, engine performance doesn't substantially shift this curve horizontally, while booster reusability and booster dry mass fraction both optimize towards a lower upper stage delta-v.

Based on this analysis, a single Prometheus (100 tonne SL thrust should yield 118 t vac thrust) upper stage and a booster with 12 or 13 engines would be cost optimal with the ISP values in this study (320 S1 vac, 348 S2 vac). Using the ISP values from the previous study (334 S1 vac, 369 S2 vac) reduces the GLOM to ~660 t and only need 9 engines on the booster, even with a slight increase in upper stage dry mass.
« Last Edit: 03/09/2019 05:32 pm by envy887 »

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Re: CNES ESA Prometheus / Callisto proposal
« Reply #184 on: 11/25/2019 06:37 pm »
https://spacenews.com/esa-to-seek-funding-for-more-prometheus-reusable-engines-at-ministerial/
Quote
ESA to seek funding for more Prometheus reusable engines at ministerial
by Caleb Henry — October 21, 2019

WASHINGTON — The European Space Agency will ask its 22 member states next month to fund an additional two to eight Prometheus reusable engines so that the agency can further the engine’s development.
ESA, with prime contractor ArianeGroup, has two Prometheus engines being built today, leveraging funds granted at its 2016 ministerial, plus earlier work supported by the French Space Agency CNES.
Jérôme Breteau, ESA’s head of future space transportation, said Oct. 21 at the 70th International Astronautical Congress here that those two engines are on track for test firings in late 2020 at the German Space Agency DLR’s Lampoldshausen facility. ESA will continue engine tests into 2021, but what follows “is the subject of our proposal to the Space19+ ministerial,” he said.
ESA’s tri-annual ministerial conferences are where the agency and its members allocate funds for future space programs. ESA is seeking 12.5 billion euros ($13.9 billion) at its next ministerial, dubbed Space19+, Nov. 27 -28 in Seville, Spain.
Breteau said ESA needs to know the outcome of the ministerial before it can lay out the next steps for Prometheus. The agency has “very ambitious” plans for the liquid-oxygen and methane engine, he said.
ESA’s goal with Prometheus is to manufacture the engine for 1 million euros ($1.1 million) each — a tenth the price of the Vulcain engine used on the first stage of Europe’s Ariane 5 rocket. Prometheus is also designed to be reusable.
Breteau said Lampoldshausen’s hydrogen engine test bench, used for Ariane 6’s Vulcain 2.1 engine, will need upgrades to support the methane needed for Prometheus.
Breteau said Prometheus is so far in line with its cost target and its performance target of 1,000 kilonewtons in thrust. He said it is difficult to have a set mass target for Prometheus because that requires knowing what vehicle the engine will support.
Work on Prometheus has been done with the expectation that it would be used on a launch vehicle in the 2030s, but ArianeGroup has mused using it on the Ariane 6 rocket, which debuts in 2020.
Breteau wouldn’t go so far as to name a launcher that might use Prometheus.
“System engineering on the target launcher configuration is ongoing,” he said. ESA has what Breteau described as “more than a notional idea” of how to cluster Prometheus engines together on a launcher, a detail he said gives an “idea of the maturity of the system activities.”

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Re: CNES ESA Prometheus / Callisto proposal
« Reply #185 on: 11/25/2019 06:38 pm »
https://spacenews.com/five-upgrades-arianegroup-wants-europe-to-consider-for-ariane-6/
Quote
2. Prometheus engine spinoffs

The first Prometheus reusable engine is on track for completion by the end of 2020, with ground testing to follow. ArianeGroup is preparing the engine for use in the 2030s, but Bonguet said the company can start applying Prometheus technology to Ariane 6’s expendable Vulcain 2.1 first-stage engines and Vinci second-stage engines. Prometheus, in addition to being reusable, leverages extensive 3D printing with the goal of costing 1 million euros to manufacture (a tenth the cost of Ariane 5’s Vulcain engine). Bonguet said spinoff technologies like electrical valves and 3D-printed parts from Prometheus could reduce the cost of Ariane 6’s expendable engines.

Offline Jakdowski

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Re: CNES ESA Prometheus / Callisto proposal
« Reply #186 on: 11/30/2019 09:25 pm »
CNES Callisto Animation by Blackbear Studios, These are the guys who make all the Animations for ArianeGroup, we've seen parts of this animation before in the ArianeWorks Announcement, here is the full animation they made for CNES
« Last Edit: 11/30/2019 09:27 pm by Jakdowski »

Online TrevorMonty

Re: CNES ESA Prometheus / Callisto proposal
« Reply #187 on: 12/01/2019 05:05 am »
They could do multi engine replacement for Ariane 6. For light -medium payloads use single stick as RLV. For heavy payloads or BLEO missions add the SRBs and make it expendable.

Offline Lar

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Re: CNES ESA Prometheus / Callisto proposal
« Reply #188 on: 12/01/2019 02:12 pm »
CNES Callisto Animation by Blackbear Studios, These are the guys who make all the Animations for ArianeGroup, we've seen parts of this animation before in the ArianeWorks Announcement, here is the full animation they made for CNES

Nice vid. Missing the SpaceX swoosh on the landing pad, but glad to see at least someone over in ArianeGroup realises that maybe, just maybe, first stage reuse is a good idea if what you care about is cost.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Star One

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Re: CNES ESA Prometheus / Callisto proposal
« Reply #189 on: 12/01/2019 07:04 pm »
I presume this will eventually lead into Ariane 7.

Offline Lar

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Re: CNES ESA Prometheus / Callisto proposal
« Reply #190 on: 12/02/2019 01:23 pm »
I presume this will eventually lead into Ariane 7.
One can hope. SHOULD be 6 but that's a lost argument at this point.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Wargrim

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Re: CNES ESA Prometheus / Callisto proposal
« Reply #191 on: 12/02/2019 01:36 pm »
Correct me if i am wrong, but my impression is that ArianeSpace has not put any of its own money into any of those reusability studies / prototyping / demonstrator programs, only acted as a contractor under public money funding.

If this trend continues, and i do not see why it would not, they will not move a finger unless ESA orders a reuseable Ariane architecture and pays for it. And in the latest ESA minister conference, there was no indication whatsoever for an accelerated push for a reuseable laucher architecture.

At least we may see something get done with Space Rider.

Offline Star One

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CNES ESA Prometheus / Callisto proposal
« Reply #192 on: 12/02/2019 02:02 pm »
I presume this will eventually lead into Ariane 7.
One can hope. SHOULD be 6 but that's a lost argument at this point.

I can’t help feeling that 6 will have a shorter life than 5 as it feels to me like a launcher designed behind the curve of progress.
« Last Edit: 12/02/2019 02:03 pm by Star One »

Offline Jakdowski

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Re: CNES ESA Prometheus / Callisto proposal
« Reply #193 on: 12/02/2019 03:06 pm »
Correct me if i am wrong, but my impression is that ArianeSpace has not put any of its own money into any of those reusability studies / prototyping / demonstrator programs, only acted as a contractor under public money funding.

If this trend continues, and i do not see why it would not, they will not move a finger unless ESA orders a reuseable Ariane architecture and pays for it. And in the latest ESA minister conference, there was no indication whatsoever for an accelerated push for a reuseable laucher architecture.

At least we may see something get done with Space Rider.

My bet is that they will create the proposed ArianeNext a new Medium class reusable Launch Vehicle for LEO, with 7 Prometheus Engines, It probably won't be called an Ariane, Most likely they will name it something else maybe Europa 2 Or Something as Ariane 6 will get ICARUS and remain in service longer than necessary so they can develop a larger  heavy Launcher system (New Glenn Size)




Offline russianhalo117

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Re: CNES ESA Prometheus / Callisto proposal
« Reply #194 on: 12/02/2019 04:01 pm »
Correct me if i am wrong, but my impression is that ArianeSpace has not put any of its own money into any of those reusability studies / prototyping / demonstrator programs, only acted as a contractor under public money funding.

If this trend continues, and i do not see why it would not, they will not move a finger unless ESA orders a reuseable Ariane architecture and pays for it. And in the latest ESA minister conference, there was no indication whatsoever for an accelerated push for a reuseable laucher architecture.

At least we may see something get done with Space Rider.

My bet is that they will create the proposed ArianeNext a new Medium class reusable Launch Vehicle for LEO, with 7 Prometheus Engines, It probably won't be called an Ariane, Most likely they will name it something else maybe Europa 2 Or Something as Ariane 6 will get ICARUS and remain in service longer than necessary so they can develop a larger  heavy Launcher system (New Glenn Size)




This is first not a thread for ArianeNEXT (Ariane 7 and so on). Second the name will not change as long as CNES and Ariane Group are in charge as it is their name, launcher and company even though they have ESA member states support.

Offline Star One

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Re: CNES ESA Prometheus / Callisto proposal
« Reply #195 on: 12/03/2019 11:39 am »
Correct me if i am wrong, but my impression is that ArianeSpace has not put any of its own money into any of those reusability studies / prototyping / demonstrator programs, only acted as a contractor under public money funding.

If this trend continues, and i do not see why it would not, they will not move a finger unless ESA orders a reuseable Ariane architecture and pays for it. And in the latest ESA minister conference, there was no indication whatsoever for an accelerated push for a reuseable laucher architecture.

At least we may see something get done with Space Rider.

My bet is that they will create the proposed ArianeNext a new Medium class reusable Launch Vehicle for LEO, with 7 Prometheus Engines, It probably won't be called an Ariane, Most likely they will name it something else maybe Europa 2 Or Something as Ariane 6 will get ICARUS and remain in service longer than necessary so they can develop a larger  heavy Launcher system (New Glenn Size)




This is first not a thread for ArianeNEXT (Ariane 7 and so on). Second the name will not change as long as CNES and Ariane Group are in charge as it is their name, launcher and company even though they have ESA member states support.

If you feel such discussion is not appropriate for this thread you are liberty to create a suitable thread.

Offline Jakdowski

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Re: CNES ESA Prometheus / Callisto proposal
« Reply #196 on: 01/02/2020 08:47 pm »
Looks like the Diamant Site is already getting ready
BTW Follow DutchSpace on Twitter, he has great archive and access for all the old Ariane Launchers and inside info if anyone interested

https://twitter.com/DutchSpace/status/1212760539660730368
https://twitter.com/thivallee/status/1212762719717330944
https://twitter.com/JmAstorg/status/1206593681937055744?
« Last Edit: 01/04/2020 05:07 pm by Jakdowski »

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: CNES ESA Prometheus / Callisto proposal
« Reply #197 on: 01/02/2020 09:29 pm »
Ensemble de Lancement Diamant (ELD) to be redesignated Ensemble de Lancement Callisto (ELC) at a later date.

Offline Rik ISS-fan

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Re: CNES ESA Prometheus / Callisto proposal
« Reply #198 on: 01/02/2020 09:47 pm »
Sorry but the name of the refurbished Diamond launch site is TBD.
I hope and think Callisto is the first user. I hope the second user will be RETALT (Could have >3 different names)

Possibly they might need to create a 1MN thrust level capable sound suppression flame duct.
I'm actually hoping CNES/ESA can build two of those flame ducts roughly at the Diamond launch site.
The second one could be used by another small launcher.

Possibly this might clear up why I'm against Themis, the three engine design is way to big. And having to wait for certification of Prometheus is afaik a problem. If reuse doesn't work, a single Prometheus could be used on the first stage of this micro launcher from the rebuild Diamond launch site.

The more logical site for Callisto would have been the sounding rocket site. [google maps] That's also still available for future use. But it's close to the city of Kourou, thus higher risk when it's used. 

Offline Mammutti

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Re: CNES ESA Prometheus / Callisto proposal
« Reply #199 on: 06/04/2020 10:41 am »
Quote from: ESA
ESA moves ahead on low-cost reusable rocket engine

ESA’s Prometheus is the precursor of ultra-low-cost rocket propulsion that is flexible enough to fit a fleet of new launch vehicles for any mission and will be potentially reusable.

At the Space19+ Council meeting in Seville, Spain last November, ESA received full funding to bring the current Prometheus engine design to a technical maturity suitable for industry. Developed by ArianeGroup, Prometheus is now seen as key in the effort to prepare competitive future European access to space.

By applying a design-to-cost approach to manufacturing Prometheus, ESA aims to lower the cost of production by a factor of ten of the current main stage Ariane 5 Vulcain 2 engine.

Features such as variable thrust, multiple ignitions, suitability for main and upper stage application, and minimised ground operations before and after flight also make Prometheus a highly flexible engine.

This Prometheus precursor runs on liquid oxygen–methane which brings high efficiency, allows standardisation and operational simplicity. Methane propellant is also widely available and easy to handle.

In the short term it is likely that operational engines will benefit from the application of Prometheus technologies.

Upcoming tests overseen by ArianeGroup at the DLR German Aerospace Center’s Lampoldshausen testing facility in Germany will validate the hardware components for the first Prometheus engine test model (M1).

In preparation, the P5 test bench will gain a 250 cubic metre capacity propellant tank for methane. This will allow engineers to efficiently switch test configurations between Prometheus and Ariane 6’s Vulcain 2.1 main stage engine, also in development.

Main subsystems are being manufactured. The first elements built last year benefited from new methods such as additive layer manufacturing (ALM) which speeds up production, achieves fewer parts and greatly reduces costs.

ALM builds a structure layer by layer, which is much quicker and easier than the traditional process of cutting away bulk material. Complex, optimised parts, impossible to manufacture via classical methods, can be created using less material and energy, and in far fewer manufacturing steps.

Components manufactured and now ready to test include the turbo pump’s turbine, pump inlet and gas generator valves. March will see the delivery of the chamber valves and on-board rocket engine computer for engine management and monitoring – the part that makes this a ‘smart’ engine and potentially reusable.

The first combustion chamber model is expected at the end of June while the combustion chamber for M1 will be delivered in December 2020.

Engineers will assemble the M1 full-scale demonstrator at the end of this year for testing on the ground in 2021.

Further Prometheus engines will be built for testing into the future.

Also within ESA’s Future Launchers Preparatory Programme, Arianeworks is currently preparing an in-flight reusable vehicle demonstration called Themis, which will incorporate the Prometheus precursor engine.

Prometheus represents a breakthrough in terms of cost and manufacturing and its robust design is the baseline for future evolutions of Ariane to 2030.

http://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Space_Transportation/ESA_moves_ahead_on_low-cost_reusable_rocket_engine

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