Author Topic: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread  (Read 26101 times)

Offline rdale

  • Assistant to the Chief Meteorologist
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10390
  • Lansing MI
  • Liked: 1415
  • Likes Given: 171
STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« on: 07/15/2011 12:52 pm »
I normally wouldn't post this far in advance, but I'm on vacation next week so wanted to get it started and let the group take over from here.

Offhand I don't see anything big on the horizon... USAF is actually pretty pessimistic with their shower/storm threat during that morning, but I don't see what warrants that much worry.

USAF Weather Links: http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070606-012.pdf

Spaceflight Meteorology Group: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC

National Weather Service: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Titusville&state=FL&site=MLB&textField1=28.5888&textField2=-80.8202&e=0

NWS Forecast Discsussion: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/MLB/AFDMLB

Landing weather rules: http://nasa-ksc.org/outgoing/weather_Rules.pdf (L2 has more info and more recent updates)

DO NOT POST WEATHER.COM OR ACCUWEATHER PREDICTIONS PLEASE. Those are completely automated with no living person ever looking at the output. Computers can't replace humans in every field yet

Offline Eksath

  • Member
  • Posts: 62
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #1 on: 07/16/2011 12:40 am »
RDale,

Thanks for the start of the thread. With sunrise at 6:38am and civil twilight at 6:12am, I am thinking that a 15 approach may be the nominal choice. i.e. keep the light  behind the pilot after the last HAC. Do the potential winds direction at that time in the morning, support this,too?

Thanks

Offline Prober

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10348
  • Save the spin....I'm keeping you honest!
  • Nevada
  • Liked: 721
  • Likes Given: 729
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #2 on: 07/16/2011 01:15 am »
I'll still keep my Cameras charged for a quick Edwards trip.

2017 - Everything Old is New Again.
"I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant..." --Isoroku Yamamoto

Offline rdale

  • Assistant to the Chief Meteorologist
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10390
  • Lansing MI
  • Liked: 1415
  • Likes Given: 171
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #3 on: 07/16/2011 01:33 am »
Very rarely would the winds be an issue at that time of the morning, so it'll probably be chosen on other issues like you noted Eksath.

Prober - no need to charge them now, Edwards will not be activated for the initial landing day.

Offline shuttlefanatic

  • Launches: 61-C, 91, 100, 119, 133, 134, 135. Landings: 26, 28, 32, 36, 41, 40, 44, 42, 58, 64, 66, 67, 76, 92, 100, 124, 126, 128.
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 456
  • SSP MET 11056d 21h 57m Flight time 1330d 16h 18m
  • San Diego, CA
    • Final thoughts...
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #4 on: 07/16/2011 04:47 am »
Given that lighting conditions are debatably "weather", some related numbers:

KSC July 21-22:
5:08AM Astronomical twilight    (negligible atmospheric scattering)
5:41AM Nautical twilight    (sea horizon visible)
6:12AM Civil twilight 
6:38AM Sunrise

Edwards July 22:
4:12AM Astronomical twilight
4:50AM Nautical twilight
5:25AM Civil twilight 
5:53AM Sunrise

Also, per notes in L2, waiting 1 orbit for daylight conditions is not being considered.  Approximate landing time on July 22 is roughly 5AM local time for both KSC and Edwards.

Prober, I'll post Edwards landing viewing notes in the viewing thread should that scenario become likely.

Offline Prober

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10348
  • Save the spin....I'm keeping you honest!
  • Nevada
  • Liked: 721
  • Likes Given: 729
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #5 on: 07/16/2011 07:11 pm »
Given that lighting conditions are debatably "weather", some related numbers:

KSC July 21-22:
5:08AM Astronomical twilight    (negligible atmospheric scattering)
5:41AM Nautical twilight    (sea horizon visible)
6:12AM Civil twilight 
6:38AM Sunrise

Edwards July 22:
4:12AM Astronomical twilight
4:50AM Nautical twilight
5:25AM Civil twilight 
5:53AM Sunrise

Also, per notes in L2, waiting 1 orbit for daylight conditions is not being considered.  Approximate landing time on July 22 is roughly 5AM local time for both KSC and Edwards.

Prober, I'll post Edwards landing viewing notes in the viewing thread should that scenario become likely.

Thanks, will keep it handy
2017 - Everything Old is New Again.
"I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant..." --Isoroku Yamamoto

Offline Orbiter

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2995
  • Florida
  • Liked: 1548
  • Likes Given: 1385
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #6 on: 07/17/2011 10:08 pm »
Take a look what's off Cape Canaveral..
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...
5:00 PM EDT Sun Jul 17
Location: 27.5°N 78.2°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: S at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb

Predicted to move away from the launch/landing site by Thursday.

Orbiter
KSC Engineer, astronomer, rocket photographer.

Offline shuttlefanatic

  • Launches: 61-C, 91, 100, 119, 133, 134, 135. Landings: 26, 28, 32, 36, 41, 40, 44, 42, 58, 64, 66, 67, 76, 92, 100, 124, 126, 128.
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 456
  • SSP MET 11056d 21h 57m Flight time 1330d 16h 18m
  • San Diego, CA
    • Final thoughts...
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #7 on: 07/18/2011 12:24 pm »
SMG is out this morning with a landing day forecast.  No weather constraints for any of the landing opportunities at any sites. 

Forecast winds for KSC on Thursday are 240 at 6-9 kts, so a direct crosswind not favoring either runway.

(Tropical Storm Bret is not currently a factor, and will be even further out to sea by Thursday.)

Offline Hog

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2846
  • Woodstock
  • Liked: 1700
  • Likes Given: 6866
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #8 on: 07/18/2011 01:17 pm »
Sun position at 1st landing opportunity at KSC.

Altitude   -8.9° 
Azimuth   60.8° 
Right ascension   8h 1m 42s 
Declination  20° 29' 46" 
Range (AU)  1.0161136 
Constellation  Cancer 

Paul

Offline brettreds2k

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 738
  • Charlotte, NC
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 42
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #9 on: 07/19/2011 02:44 pm »
What time is Atlantis due to touch down (Eastern time)??
Brett
www.facebook.com/brett.lowenthal1

Orbiters I have visited in retirement:

[ ] Enterprise
[X] Discovery
[X] Atlantis
[ ] Endeavour

Online dsmillman

  • Member
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1482
  • Liked: 342
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #10 on: 07/19/2011 02:47 pm »
What time is Atlantis due to touch down (Eastern time)??
5:56 AM EDT

Offline brettreds2k

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 738
  • Charlotte, NC
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 42
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #11 on: 07/19/2011 03:14 pm »
I cant believe they are doing a night landing for the final landing ever, That sucks!!
Brett
www.facebook.com/brett.lowenthal1

Orbiters I have visited in retirement:

[ ] Enterprise
[X] Discovery
[X] Atlantis
[ ] Endeavour

Offline MarekCyzio

Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #12 on: 07/19/2011 03:16 pm »
Sun position at 1st landing opportunity at KSC.

Altitude   -8.9° 
Azimuth   60.8° 
Right ascension   8h 1m 42s 
Declination  20° 29' 46" 
Range (AU)  1.0161136 
Constellation  Cancer 



So it looks like the shuttle will be fully illuminated by the sun above 55K feet (12K feet / 2 degrees). It will be quite difficult to snap a good photo of it :(

Offline shuttlefanatic

  • Launches: 61-C, 91, 100, 119, 133, 134, 135. Landings: 26, 28, 32, 36, 41, 40, 44, 42, 58, 64, 66, 67, 76, 92, 100, 124, 126, 128.
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 456
  • SSP MET 11056d 21h 57m Flight time 1330d 16h 18m
  • San Diego, CA
    • Final thoughts...
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #13 on: 07/19/2011 04:08 pm »
So it looks like the shuttle will be fully illuminated by the sun above 55K feet (12K feet / 2 degrees). It will be quite difficult to snap a good photo of it :(
Unfortunately, it's worse than that.  The approximation is 12K meters / 2 degrees (http://curious.astro.cornell.edu/question.php?number=388), and the higher you go, the less it helps.  My estimate is closer to 50 _miles_ for full illumination ("sunrise").

If it were only 55K feet, that's roughly the altitude of the shuttle as it goes subsonic, directly overhead.  At least in the drier, clearer air out west, it's possible to spot it at that point, and even easier if it were lit up.  Given that 55kft ~ 11 miles ~ distance from launch pad to Port Canaveral/Titusville, that gives a rough idea of its apparent size at that point.

Incidentally for the weather thread, this morning's weather sheet continues to indicate no forecast weather violations for landing:

Quote
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM - THURSDAY 07/21/11

 SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
 KSC  FEW020 FEW070 SCT250           7              24006P09

Offline Danderman

  • Extreme Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10288
  • Liked: 699
  • Likes Given: 723
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #14 on: 07/20/2011 11:45 pm »
So, what is the weather like in Florida? I am on standby in case the shuttle lands in California, so I guess I should be paying attention.

Online Lee Jay

  • Elite Veteran
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8566
  • Liked: 3603
  • Likes Given: 327
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #15 on: 07/20/2011 11:56 pm »
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM - THURSDAY 07/21/11

 SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
 FIRST OPPORTUNITY
 KSC  FEW050 SCT250                  7              24004P06


 SECOND OPPORTUNITY
 KSC  FEW050 SCT250                  7              26002P03
      WIND LGT VRB

 EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
 EDW  SKC                            7              22007P11


 NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
 NOR  FEW080 SCT250                  7              12006P09


FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
 KSC ... NONE
 EDW ... NONE
 NOR ... NONE

Offline shuttlefanatic

  • Launches: 61-C, 91, 100, 119, 133, 134, 135. Landings: 26, 28, 32, 36, 41, 40, 44, 42, 58, 64, 66, 67, 76, 92, 100, 124, 126, 128.
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 456
  • SSP MET 11056d 21h 57m Flight time 1330d 16h 18m
  • San Diego, CA
    • Final thoughts...
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #16 on: 07/20/2011 11:56 pm »
Mark: 10 hours until landing, and about 1 1/2 hours until crew wake at 9:29PM Eastern.

I bid Atlantis and crew a safe entry and landing, and will save further comment for when they are on the ground.

So, what is the weather like in Florida? I am on standby in case the shuttle lands in California, so I guess I should be paying attention.

Warm and humid, as usual, and favorable for landing.  I'll post updates to the weather thread as needed, but it's not really been needed.  Edwards isn't activated for Thursday, so there won't be anything to stand by for tonight.

Offline shuttlefanatic

  • Launches: 61-C, 91, 100, 119, 133, 134, 135. Landings: 26, 28, 32, 36, 41, 40, 44, 42, 58, 64, 66, 67, 76, 92, 100, 124, 126, 128.
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 456
  • SSP MET 11056d 21h 57m Flight time 1330d 16h 18m
  • San Diego, CA
    • Final thoughts...
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #17 on: 07/21/2011 12:07 am »
...
Note: I believe the issue time for this forecast was 3:30AM CDT - that's the most current on the SMG site.  There was supposed to be an update issued at 5P, but I haven't seen it yet...  Not that I expect anything to change.

Offline jcopella

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 286
  • Orlando, FL
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #18 on: 07/21/2011 12:47 am »
From Orlando, about 50 miles (as the crow flies) from the SLF, it's a beautiful summer evening.  Warm & on the humid side as is the norm, but calm, almost no wind, and just a few high cirrus.

"I don't think the country is really going to realize what a good deal that we had in the space shuttle until we don't have it anymore." -- Wayne Hale

Offline MarekCyzio

Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #19 on: 07/21/2011 12:58 am »
The weather is amazing.

Offline shuttlefanatic

  • Launches: 61-C, 91, 100, 119, 133, 134, 135. Landings: 26, 28, 32, 36, 41, 40, 44, 42, 58, 64, 66, 67, 76, 92, 100, 124, 126, 128.
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 456
  • SSP MET 11056d 21h 57m Flight time 1330d 16h 18m
  • San Diego, CA
    • Final thoughts...
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #20 on: 07/21/2011 04:04 am »
Very likely the final formal SMG weather forecast for the shuttle program. 

Quote
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX               77058
1100 PM CDT WEDNESDAY JULY 20 2011

LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-135

EXPECTED LANDING DATE:      07/21/11
                 TIME:      0957Z
                 SITE:      KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL

U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM - THURSDAY 07/21/11

 SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
 FIRST OPPORTUNITY
 KSC  FEW050 SCT250                  7              24003P04
      WIND LGT VRB

 SECOND OPPORTUNITY
 KSC  FEW050 SCT250                  7              26002P03
      WIND LGT VRB

 EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
 EDW  SKC                            7              22007P11


 NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
 NOR  FEW080 SCT250                  7              12006P09


 FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
 KSC ... NONE
 EDW ... NONE
 NOR ... NONE

U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM+1 - FRIDAY 07/22/11

 SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
 KSC  FEW030 SCT250                  7              21002P03


 EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
 EDW  SKC                            7              22007P11


 NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
 NOR  SCT100 BKN250                  7              13006P09


 FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
 KSC ... NONE
 EDW ... NONE
 NOR ... NONE

THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED

 KSC...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
       ICAO ID IS KTTS
 EDW...EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE...CA
       ICAO ID IS KEDW
 NOR...NORTHRUP STRIP WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR...NM
       ICAO ID IS KE28 (KHMN IS NEARBY)

HOETH/WILEY/HOOD


Offline psloss

  • Veteran armchair spectator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17980
  • Liked: 4047
  • Likes Given: 2089
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #21 on: 07/21/2011 07:06 am »
Latest reported observation at the SLF:

METAR KTTS 210655Z VRB01KT 10SM CLR 24/22 A2995 RMK SLP144 N2901/02 C2601/02 S1601/03

Only thing that might be worth worrying about (maybe) is the dewpoint spread.  Not hearing that mentioned in what PAO Rob Navias is relaying in terms of weather conversations, so maybe not.
« Last Edit: 07/21/2011 07:19 am by psloss »

Offline psloss

  • Veteran armchair spectator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17980
  • Liked: 4047
  • Likes Given: 2089
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #22 on: 07/21/2011 07:20 am »
Weather brief/tagup for Entry FD in 44 minutes at four minutes after the hour.

(Edit: that's the schedule, but it may happen sooner.)
« Last Edit: 07/21/2011 07:24 am by psloss »

Offline psloss

  • Veteran armchair spectator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17980
  • Liked: 4047
  • Likes Given: 2089
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #23 on: 07/21/2011 07:23 am »
Latest from about 10 minutes ago:

SPECI KTTS 210710Z 26001KT 10SM CLR 24/23 A2995 RMK SLP142 N2601/02 C3301/02 S2802/03

Offline shuttlefanatic

  • Launches: 61-C, 91, 100, 119, 133, 134, 135. Landings: 26, 28, 32, 36, 41, 40, 44, 42, 58, 64, 66, 67, 76, 92, 100, 124, 126, 128.
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 456
  • SSP MET 11056d 21h 57m Flight time 1330d 16h 18m
  • San Diego, CA
    • Final thoughts...
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #24 on: 07/21/2011 07:27 am »
Up until the last observation, the temp/dewpoint spread was trending slightly better than yesterday, when it was 1C all night through sunrise.  An observation of shallow fog was recorded yesterday at the 1055Z observation (6:55A local).

If that's as bad as it gets this morning, it's probably not a problem.  Shallow fog is fog with a depth of less than 6 feet.  Given cockpit elevation, they may be able to see right down through it.

« Last Edit: 07/21/2011 07:32 am by shuttlefanatic »

Offline psloss

  • Veteran armchair spectator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17980
  • Liked: 4047
  • Likes Given: 2089
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #25 on: 07/21/2011 07:31 am »
Landing time is well before that, too, so less likely to see anything until after.  Agreed that it's not likely to be an issue.

Edit: 725Z obs

SPECI KTTS 210725Z 30002KT 10SM CLR 24/23 A2995 RMK SLP142 N3002/02 C3401/02 S3102/02
« Last Edit: 07/21/2011 07:34 am by psloss »

Offline psloss

  • Veteran armchair spectator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17980
  • Liked: 4047
  • Likes Given: 2089
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #26 on: 07/21/2011 08:03 am »
METAR KTTS 210755Z 28002KT 10SM CLR 23/23 A2994 RMK SLP141 N2802/03 C3401/02 S2902/02

Weather briefing coming up for Entry FD; probably last one.  About 25 minutes from Go/No-Go on the burn.

Offline shuttlefanatic

  • Launches: 61-C, 91, 100, 119, 133, 134, 135. Landings: 26, 28, 32, 36, 41, 40, 44, 42, 58, 64, 66, 67, 76, 92, 100, 124, 126, 128.
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 456
  • SSP MET 11056d 21h 57m Flight time 1330d 16h 18m
  • San Diego, CA
    • Final thoughts...
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #27 on: 07/21/2011 08:05 am »
Noting the latest observation has temperature = dewpoint.

From PAO commentary, air is described as "dry" so perhaps no real concern for fog this morning.

Offline psloss

  • Veteran armchair spectator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17980
  • Liked: 4047
  • Likes Given: 2089
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #28 on: 07/21/2011 08:11 am »
Noting the latest observation has temperature = dewpoint.

From PAO commentary, air is described as "dry" so perhaps no real concern for fog this morning.
Yes, and the Wx briefing was so short, it sounds like they're going to go ahead and give the crew an early go for the deorbit burn.

Offline psloss

  • Veteran armchair spectator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17980
  • Liked: 4047
  • Likes Given: 2089
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #29 on: 07/21/2011 08:36 am »
About 13 minutes to the burn; latest obs:

SPECI KTTS 210825Z 31002KT 10SM CLR 23/22 A2995 RMK SLP142 N3102/03 C3402/02 S2902/02

Offline shuttlefanatic

  • Launches: 61-C, 91, 100, 119, 133, 134, 135. Landings: 26, 28, 32, 36, 41, 40, 44, 42, 58, 64, 66, 67, 76, 92, 100, 124, 126, 128.
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 456
  • SSP MET 11056d 21h 57m Flight time 1330d 16h 18m
  • San Diego, CA
    • Final thoughts...
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #30 on: 07/21/2011 09:15 am »
Less than 45 minutes to go.  Observations being reported every 15 minutes, but not much change.  The latest:

KTTS 210910Z 27002KT 10SM CLR 23/22 A2995 RMK SLP142 N2702/03 C3301/02 S2902/02

Offline shuttlefanatic

  • Launches: 61-C, 91, 100, 119, 133, 134, 135. Landings: 26, 28, 32, 36, 41, 40, 44, 42, 58, 64, 66, 67, 76, 92, 100, 124, 126, 128.
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 456
  • SSP MET 11056d 21h 57m Flight time 1330d 16h 18m
  • San Diego, CA
    • Final thoughts...
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: STS-135 Landing Weather Thread
« Reply #31 on: 07/21/2011 10:06 am »
For the record, the weather at landing:

KTTS 210957Z 00000KT 10SM CLR 23/23 A2995 RMK SLP142 N0000/02 C3501/02 S0301/02

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
1