Quote from: Chris Bergin on 11/11/2011 03:19 amAlso was told this is now looking like a lost cause, but we were getting to that stage already.Yea, I was thinking, even if they somehow manage to magically bounce the signal off something weird and get it through to get the SC to talk, then what?
Also was told this is now looking like a lost cause, but we were getting to that stage already.
I don't think it is premature, it is over and some key space program Russian officials had already admitted so.
Quote from: ntrgc89 link=topic=15610.msg827995#msg827995A bit premature don't you think? The SC is still up there, they're still trying.I don't think it is premature, it is over and some key space program Russian officials had already admitted so. But of course they will be trying as they have nothing to lose.
A bit premature don't you think? The SC is still up there, they're still trying.
Quote from: Chris Bergin on 11/11/2011 03:19 amAlso was told this is now looking like a lost cause, but we were getting to that stage already.Yea, I was thinking, even if they somehow manage to magically bounce the signal off something weird and get it through to get the SC to talk, then what? There's no way they'll be able to upload an entire command sequence (or at least I imagine any command to have the spacecraft do something with its engines is going to be longer and more complicated than switching the radio on.
Another time constraint is the rate with which the probe's parking orbit is precessing -- about 6-7 degrees per day -- out of the optimal plane for insertion onto the trans-Mars trajectory. Each day means the need for a bigger burn to correct for the growing planar error.
I remembered a similar software issue that nearly crippled another Mars mission several years ago.Back in January 2004, just 16 days after the Spirit rover landed on Mars, it suddenly stopped responding to commands from Earth. For more than 2 days there was only one single telemetry downlink from the rover, and the data was garbled. Then just two minutes after signal acquisition, it stopped. Several attempts to communicate with the rover was unsuccessful for more than two days. It was not until more than three days later when it sent enough data to Earth that it can be concluded that the rover triggered a safe mode condition, but the initial attempts to command it to downlink telemetry and shut down the instruments were unsuccessful. Another day would pass before engineers could determine the issue is in the flash memory system: it got corrupted during a routine health check. They then issued commands to bypass the flash memory system and shut it down, and the rover finally achieved full command after five days. (Detailed information can be found here and in Steve Squires' book Roving Mars)I cannot help but to compare the current issue with Phobos-Grunt with this case. In both cases the communication link was suddenly lost; no communication occurred and control was lost for days; only a short signal can be heard from both spacecrafts; there are limited communication windows (though I think it is slightly better in the case of Spirit); the antennas were not pointing in the optimum place for communication; the hints at both spacecraft went into safe modes due to re-booting of the computers. Of course there are many differences (I believe the situation for Phobos-Grunt is a bit more severe, particularly as it is being in a low Earth orbit, which is a place that is less tolerant for trouble-shooting and attitude control), but as an amateur I would say that it is too early to claim defeat just yet. While I am not sure how many redundancies the Russians have put in the spacecraft's control system software (and hardware), if they have enough hacks in place (just like the MER team did) they might have a chance of salvaging the mission. So fingers crossed!
or in the hierarchy directly above them and in a position to comment authoritatively.
. Even if by the time they sort things it's too far out of plane or too low to make a proper trans-Mars injection, it would still be a functional spacecraft ....alternate mission like visiting a near earth asteroid.
So, basically, this night has passed without additional official comments, quotes or concrete news... I have a sinking feeling about this mission.
Very sad
Perhaps a chance to get the Russian space science back on track...
Concerning all this talk about sending commands from the ISS, Goldstone and ESA, do any of these facilities actually have a capability to transmit in the 7 Gigahertz (not 7 MHz) spectrum?
Even though the Soviet era of paranoia and secrecy is gone, many Russian institutions still operate very strongly on a 'cover up embarrassments' policy. However, failure to report success for a publicly-known mission that is publicly known to be in trouble is highly indicative, IMHO at least.
A very perceptive comment. The term I've used in advising my news media clients, for the reaction of space officials and their press liaison teams, is 'panicked despair'. It's as if they are pulling the blanket over their heads and wishing people would just lose interest and move on to some other story. Unprofessional, irresponsible, and in the modern interdependent world of space partnerships, unacceptable -- IMHO. In a spasm of dark humor, I'm reminded of the scene in "The Christmas Story" where Ralphie and his classmates are asked by their teacher where one of their friends (a boy named Flick) is -- who's actually in difficulty due to a prank he was dared into doing. Ralphie's innocent-faced response [voiced by the narrator}: "Flick? Flick who?"...Moscow officials are playing the "Fobos? Fobos who?" game now, in contemptuous disregard of their international partners on this project. And as a result, they are seriously poisoning the trust and expected candor levels that have been grudgingly but inexorably built up over the long, difficult years of joint work with other nations, including the US. They've even frakked off China, never a prudent plan.And the project failure itself isn't the cause, since we've overcome worse, together. The failure is in the hearts, minds, and souls of the people running the program, who could have chosen differently, but did not so so. And you may quote me.
Quote from: Ben the Space Brit on 11/11/2011 08:38 amEven though the Soviet era of paranoia and secrecy is gone, many Russian institutions still operate very strongly on a 'cover up embarrassments' policy. However, failure to report success for a publicly-known mission that is publicly known to be in trouble is highly indicative, IMHO at least. A very perceptive comment. The term I've used in advising my news media clients, for the reaction of space officials and their press liaison teams, is 'panicked despair'. It's as if they are pulling the blanket over their heads and wishing people would just lose interest and move on to some other story. Unprofessional, irresponsible, and in the modern interdependent world of space partnerships, unacceptable -- IMHO. They have defiantly withheld information on their activities, on what they are attempting, on the true state of the vehicle [ARE the solar arrays really deployed?], on the degree of pre-flight contingency planning as it may apply to this situation, and to the most basic guidelines of any possible delayed trans-Mars insertions [such as -- what is the time limit imposed by the parking orbit's precession?].The one bright light was the pre-launch request from IKI for South American observers, a request that turned out to be prescient. But culturally, for a long time Russians had not been willing to ask for help from foreigners, it was regarded as a sign of weakness. In the bad old Soviet days, they would rather have died -- and sometimes did -- in sight of foreign help they refused to ask for. One glaring example was a serious fire at their 'Vostok' Antarctic base in 1982 that was covered up in a pretense of normalcy while the men struggled for their lives -- with rescue from other countries only days away, if asked for.In a spasm of dark humor, I'm reminded of the scene in "The Christmas Story" where Ralphie and his classmates are asked by their teacher where one of their friends (a boy named Flick) is -- who's actually in difficulty due to a prank he was dared into doing. Ralphie's innocent-faced response [voiced by the narrator}: "Flick? Flick who?"Moscow officials are playing the "Fobos? Fobos who?" game now, in contemptuous disregard of their international partners on this project. And as a result, they are seriously poisoning the trust and expected candor levels that have been grudgingly but inexorably built up over the long, difficult years of joint work with other nations, including the US. They've even annoyed China, never a prudent plan.And the project failure itself isn't the cause, since we've overcome worse, together. The failure is in the hearts, minds, and souls of the people running the program, who could have chosen differently, but did not so so. And you may quote me.