LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011

[JimO]

I think that old saying is true: Give engineers the time to work out a problem, and they will....I hope it is this time.
I don't share in Jame Oberg's pessimism. 

Pessimistic? By no means. Nothing irreversibly bad has happened, the full prop load is still available, and short-term 'stay healthy' maneuvers can be performed.

Since the solar panels must be strong enough to perform Mars orbit insertion with the Fregat stage, it seems plausible that they can be deployed even before the Earth departure burn is made. That solves one problem. Going into a higher apogee orbit allowing more dwell time over Russian tracking sites solves another.

The major current problem is to get the spacecraft out of 'safe' mode. But such a mode is DESIGNED to be able to leave when you feel better.

I'll offer better than even odds that they WILL be able to make their interplanetary insertion -- maybe not tomorrow, and maybe not in three days, but within the launch window.

Right now I need to go get some sleep.

[JimO]

Roscosmos and NASA are both probably hoping that programming is not the issue. NASA JPL supplied the auxiliary flight control computer, at the request of the prime contractor with approval from Roscosmos, to increase chances of mission success. Both are turned on for launch through TMI with JPL computer taking over after last orbit correction burn to perform Mars System insertion. JPL computer is then turned off until Phobos launch of Sample return SC back to Earth.

This is the first I've ever heard of this JPL contribution. Is there any information on the JPL site?

I've made a medium-thorough search of the JPL site and can find NO menton of any JPL participation in the Fobos-Grunt spacecraft, much less a critical piece of guidance avionics. But then, I need sleep. Can anybody else try to vereify this claim about a 'secret' NASA contribution to the Russian program? 

[sdsds]

If a controlled de-orbit can't be accomplished, we're talking about a spacecraft reentry within a week or two far more hazardous than the recent high-fear-factor falls of UARS and others, aren't we?

Twitter user @OrbitOps reports having performed "quick calculations" and suggests re-entry would take placed "in about 130 days" if no control were possible.  My main hope is of course that the Fobos-Grunt mission controllers fix their little problem and light this candle.  But even if the main engine simply will not ignite, wouldn't they still have their RCS thrusters to effect a controlled entry?

[JimO]

Here's a pessimistic thought -- if they CANNOT regain control of the bird, and it heads for an uncontrolled entry, the hypergolics it carries -- about seven tons of nitrogen teroxide and hydrazine, which could freeze before ultimately entering -- will make it the most toxic falling satellite EVER. Old USA-193 will pale in comparison, as would Mars-96 and the plutonium it dumped on Bolivia in 1996.

Any wild and crazy estimates of orbital lifetime if it becomes a derelict?

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Someone on NK posted that the solar arrays have been deployed. Hope it's true....

[plutogno]

Someone on NK posted that the solar arrays have been deployed. Hope it's true....

not sure it's good if true. it depends whether the attitude control system is designed for a firing with highly flexible appendages deployed

[William Graham]

Not sure if this is the best place to bring it up but I'm a little confused by the article, specifically the translation. Fobos is not the name of the martian moon, it's Phobos. The Russian letter "ф" is pronounced similarly to "f," but we're not talking about some place called Fobos, we're talking about the Martian moon Phobos. A nitpicky point perhaps but I disagree that Roscosmos has been mistranslating the name of the mission.

They're translating "Phobos" correctly, but "Грунт" does not translate to "Grunt". You can either translate the name to "Phobos-Soil" or "Phobos-Ground", or you can transliterate to "Fobos-Grunt" (the latter being standard for virtually all other Russian and Chinese spacecraft). Roskosmos are effectively translating the first half of the name, and just transliterating the second half, which is wrong. There a few cases where transliterated and translated rocket and spacecraft names are the same (Proton, Progress, etc), so I'm guessing that Roskosmos thought this was anoher such case, which it wasn't.

[BrunoQuiocca]

Guys! Found a brazillian video of the Phobos Grunt made last night.
His position is Lat: Lon-23.552XX: Alt-46.184XX: 742m, 467 miles ENE from me.

this is the video:


What he says: 1:08 Found the son of a b***

So I was wrong when i said that the two objects were taking distance from each other. On the beginning of his video the distance of them is about the same as what i saw.

[NH2501]

Regarding translations and transliteration.

Fortunately, in Polish we don't have such a problem because of common language group for Polish (West Slavian) and Russian (East Slavian).
In both of them the correct name for Greek god of fear is Fobos (F equals letter and sound like Greek Φ, and ф in Russian!). We also both use noun "grunt" to describe a top/upper layer of soil or ground or contact area between building and ground.

Thanks to all contributors of this topic, by the way.

[plutogno]

there is an update (in Russian) on the RKA website
http://www.federalspace.ru/main.php?id=2&nid=18227
controllers will not be able to contact F-G before 23 Moscow time (19 UTC, I guess) when it will fly over Russian territory... very bad way of managing a critical event like a trans-Mars insertion!
on the other hand, the update states that the firings have to occur within two weeks before the spacecraft reenters and batteries are exhausted. if true, this is very good news!

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Some good news. 

A telemetry had been received. Attitude keeping works. At present, the spacecraft is out of our visibility zone. We'll wait for telemetry feed at 21:30 Moscow (17:30 UTC). Then we'll know what's the problem.

[ugordan]

on the other hand, the update states that the firings have to occur within two weeks before the spacecraft reenters and batteries are exhausted. if true, this is very good news!

That still leaves the orbit plane moving away from the required injection plane with each passing day. I wonder how long it would take for the nodal regression to reach 180 deg and if that would still happen inside the possible launch window.

[BrunoQuiocca]

According to this site http://digilander.libero.it/SATrack/Phobos.html?q=phobos&jd=2455874.35069566&Post=800#MAP
the spacecraft should be over U.S. now.

[kaptein80]

With the telemetry we should be able to know the status of the sensors and in general the satus of Phobos-Grunt. Hope they can fix the problem! this is real science but again something is wrong on the engineering phase, this should not happen.

[thuvt]

Apollo 13 in the 21st century? Keeping my fingers crossed and hope for the best!

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Well this is surprising..... 

9.11.2011 14:46
Phobos-Grunt's main engine will be test fired tonight

First attempt to start the propulsion unit of the "Phobos-Grunt" interplanetary probe that had failed to eject onto a Mars-bound trajectory, will commence tonight, reports ITAR-TASS.

A source from rocket&space industry said: "We plan the first attempt to start the propulsion unit of the "Phobos-Grunt" interplanetary probe for 21:16 Moscow time (17:16 UTC)". Specialists say the spacecraft will be situated in a best point of its orbit for a proper boosting burn.

[Silmfeanor]

Well this is surprising..... 

9.11.2011 14:46
Phobos-Grunt's main engine will be test fired tonight

First attempt to start the propulsion unit of the "Phobos-Grunt" interplanetary probe that had failed to eject onto a Mars-bound trajectory, will commence tonight, reports ITAR-TASS.

A source from rocket&space industry said: "We plan the first attempt to start the propulsion unit of the "Phobos-Grunt" interplanetary probe for 21:16 Moscow time (17:16 UTC)". Specialists say the spacecraft will be situated in a best point of its orbit for a proper boosting burn.

I assume they have control and working telemetry then, and have even uploaded data?
Hope it all works, I'd love the picture of a russian official holding up a bag of phobos soil.

[SiberianTiger]

I assume they have control and working telemetry then, and have even uploaded data?

We have to assume that some control input could be sent aboard during PhG pass near Ussuriysk Control Centre at 14:16 UTC.

Hope it all works, I'd love the picture of a russian official holding up a bag of phobos soil.

I hope we'll see a Russian scientist in this role, though.

[kevin-rf]

Jim, I see the AP has heavily quoted you.
http://news.yahoo.com/russian-scientists-try-save-mars-moon-probe-082920979.html

[Silmfeanor]

Jim, I see the AP has heavily quoted you.
http://news.yahoo.com/russian-scientists-try-save-mars-moon-probe-082920979.html

Also in an earlier version of this BBC article:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15631472

- but it has now been updated / removed.

I hope we'll see a Russian scientist in this role, though.

Agreed, of course. No time for Putin jokes yet though; first let's hope they can get this bird on it's way...