At the current flight manifest, we have enough RD-180's warehoused to last for several years. Now, with the Delta IV Common Booster Core program, the cost to launch the Delta IV (one of the reasons why Atlas V has been more popular) drops enough that the Delta IV can be ramped up to conserve the Atlas V engines.There are multiple options available to address the loss of engines. The most developed of these is the Dynetics option.
Quote from: john smith 19 on 08/28/2013 07:32 amQuote from: fregate on 08/28/2013 01:11 amIMHO it has nothing to do with RF national security or any other political reasons, just pure business - statements like those are simply leverage to review LRE prices - according to Energomash, LRE RD-180 had been sold for a price that currently below cost of manufacturing (!)From the article."In 2011 Russia’s Audit Chamber announced that the RD-180 rocket engines delivered to the US according to the 1996 contract were sold for only half of their real production value. The total loss in 2008-09 reached 880 million rubles (about $30 million) or 68 percent of all financial losses of NPO Energomash at the time, the Audit Chamber said."So re-negotiating a fairer price for this hardware IE what they cost to make at least, would cut their losses by at least 68% of the companies losses.LockMart got a very good deal for those engines and it seems they are overdue for a re-pricing. :(That's one interpretation. Another would be this is a way to extract much, much higher prices, and set the floor of the negotiated price to 68% higher. There is truth, and then there is what a price negotiator tells you about how your price will hurt his poor, starving children.
Quote from: fregate on 08/28/2013 01:11 amIMHO it has nothing to do with RF national security or any other political reasons, just pure business - statements like those are simply leverage to review LRE prices - according to Energomash, LRE RD-180 had been sold for a price that currently below cost of manufacturing (!)From the article."In 2011 Russia’s Audit Chamber announced that the RD-180 rocket engines delivered to the US according to the 1996 contract were sold for only half of their real production value. The total loss in 2008-09 reached 880 million rubles (about $30 million) or 68 percent of all financial losses of NPO Energomash at the time, the Audit Chamber said."So re-negotiating a fairer price for this hardware IE what they cost to make at least, would cut their losses by at least 68% of the companies losses.LockMart got a very good deal for those engines and it seems they are overdue for a re-pricing. :(
IMHO it has nothing to do with RF national security or any other political reasons, just pure business - statements like those are simply leverage to review LRE prices - according to Energomash, LRE RD-180 had been sold for a price that currently below cost of manufacturing (!)
QuoteI am amazed that after this much time the USAF or DoD has not thrown some money at PwR to study the engine and see what mfg it in the US would take (or at least to identify the tough parts, EG new or unfamiliar materials, or unusual mfg processes). I think they did. Perhaps now we will see whether those studies were perfunctory or not. It's time for American engine makers--uh, THE American engine maker--to wake up. This COULD be a very positive development to help re-invigorate their capabilities.
I am amazed that after this much time the USAF or DoD has not thrown some money at PwR to study the engine and see what mfg it in the US would take (or at least to identify the tough parts, EG new or unfamiliar materials, or unusual mfg processes).
http://rt.com/news/russian-rocket-engine-ban-039/via Jeff Foust on Twitter, who has this to add:Before people get too concerned about the RD-180 report, keep in mind that 1) it's just a report; 2) there's a stockpile of engines in US 3) the IP is in place to build RD-180s in the US (the original 90s-era plan). Re-engining the Atlas V isn't a likely near-term option.--Presumably this is about Syria.
Quote from: QuantumG on 08/28/2013 12:08 amhttp://rt.com/news/russian-rocket-engine-ban-039/via Jeff Foust on Twitter, who has this to add:Before people get too concerned about the RD-180 report, keep in mind that 1) it's just a report; 2) there's a stockpile of engines in US 3) the IP is in place to build RD-180s in the US (the original 90s-era plan). Re-engining the Atlas V isn't a likely near-term option.--Presumably this is about Syria.There is a simple way for Russia to play this.ULA plans to launch 8-10 Atlas V rockets a year over the next several years.Russia need only deliver less than 8 engines a year to quickly put them in the driver’s seat while still making money.Does anyone know how many a year they are delivering?
Don't be shocked if Orbital's supply is similarly threatened. In Orbital's case, a lack of supply could potentially doom the company.
Quote from: Linze on 08/28/2013 02:59 pmDon't be shocked if Orbital's supply is similarly threatened. In Orbital's case, a lack of supply could potentially doom the company.Orbital's supply is in Sacramento. Are you suggesting that the Russians are planning an attack on Sacramento?
Orbital's supply is in Sacramento. Are you suggesting that the Russians are planning an attack on Sacramento?
Quote from: Danderman on 08/28/2013 03:18 pmOrbital's supply is in Sacramento. Are you suggesting that the Russians are planning an attack on Sacramento?Only suggesting they could be restricted from receiving any replenishment of their existing supply, including but not limited to spares. With or without any supplier issues, Orbital's future as a primary launch provider seems iffy. They're probably incapable of being price competitive in the medium range, let along 10 years out. They're smart folks, one supposes they'll start evolving their business.This misses the main point, which is that this news came directly from the Russian government's primary mouthpiece to the west. This is about Syria and nothing else. This is a relatively small business as compared to Russia's big earners, oil, gas, raw materials, arms.It's easy to see them risking, even sacrificing it for political gain. If this comes directly from the Kremlin, it's unlikely there will be much internal push back.
Quote from: Linze on 08/28/2013 04:13 pmQuote from: Danderman on 08/28/2013 03:18 pmOrbital's supply is in Sacramento. Are you suggesting that the Russians are planning an attack on Sacramento?Only suggesting they could be restricted from receiving any replenishment of their existing supply, including but not limited to spares. With or without any supplier issues, Orbital's future as a primary launch provider seems iffy. They're probably incapable of being price competitive in the medium range, let along 10 years out. They're smart folks, one supposes they'll start evolving their business.This misses the main point, which is that this news came directly from the Russian government's primary mouthpiece to the west. This is about Syria and nothing else. This is a relatively small business as compared to Russia's big earners, oil, gas, raw materials, arms.It's easy to see them risking, even sacrificing it for political gain. If this comes directly from the Kremlin, it's unlikely there will be much internal push back.Too many unsubstantiated statements to even bother pointing out
One has to know how to read the tea leaves to make the conjectureThe points on Orbital are also nonsense
AEHF and MUOS, for example, require the Atlas V 531 and 551, respectively.Many of NASA deep space SVs (e.g. MRO, MSL, New Horizons) require the Atlas V 441, 451, 541 or 551.The Delta IV M+, even with 4 solids, does not have the performance of the 3, 4, or 5 solids based Atlas V.
Come on people. This isn't about business, this is about Syria.
The odd twist here is that ULA really needs SpaceX to pull off their F9 1.1 launch, and the next few commercial ones, and get certified for DoD launches, because that gives ULA negotiating leverage. They can say: if we have to pay too much more, we can't compete with SpaceX on price. And if you choose not to sell us the RD-180, you are just giving extra business volume to the company who is price-competitive with you on the world market.
SpaceX will never sell engines to anyone, only missions.