Poll

In 2014, a Falcon 9 second stage will...  (choose ALL which apply)

Attempt return/recovery
56 (16.7%)
Fly with legs
27 (8%)
Re-enter the atmosphere intact
45 (13.4%)
Splashdown intact
28 (8.3%)
Land at launch site
10 (3%)
Land downrange
5 (1.5%)
Fly again (stage reuse)
3 (0.9%)
None of these
162 (48.2%)

Total Members Voted: 231

Voting closed: 01/31/2014 04:56 pm


Author Topic: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE  (Read 15967 times)

Offline dglow

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POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« on: 01/15/2014 04:56 pm »
This is one in a family of polls asking: what is SpaceX likely to accomplish in 2014? The poll you’re currently viewing addresses the Falcon 9 Second Stage.

Other polls cover Dragon, Grasshopper, Falcon 9 First Stage, Falcon Heavy, and Miscellaneous items, including new launch facilities, future vehicles, and potential partnerships.

DRAGON:  http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33824
F9 FIRST STAGE:  http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33825
F9 SECOND STAGE:  this poll
FALCON HEAVY:  http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33828
GRASSHOPPER:  http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33823
MISCELLANEOUS:  http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33827

The initial discussion about these polls took place here: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33759
For voting on SpaceX’s 2014 launch count, see this poll: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33571


Voting Details
• You may select multiple options in this poll; choose all which apply
• Events occurring on Dec 31 local time will count
• Poll closes Jan 31
« Last Edit: 01/15/2014 09:45 pm by dglow »

Offline guckyfan

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #1 on: 01/15/2014 05:26 pm »
I selected none of these. They are busy enough without working on second stage recovery this year.

Maybe 2016.

Offline dglow

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #2 on: 01/15/2014 05:31 pm »
I selected none of these. They are busy enough without working on second stage recovery this year.

Maybe 2016.

Voted the same. Would love to see progress on this in 2015, but it's unlikely this year IMO.

Offline Falcon H

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #3 on: 01/15/2014 05:35 pm »
There is no way that SpaceX can finish the first stage, and do the second stage in the same year. ::)

I voted for none of these. 

Offline rockinghorse

Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #4 on: 01/15/2014 05:38 pm »
I think that they will try to do some crazy controlled re-entry attempts, without much hope for success, in order to gather as much data as possible.
« Last Edit: 01/15/2014 06:34 pm by rockinghorse »

Offline meekGee

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #5 on: 01/15/2014 05:52 pm »
Well, to reenter the second stage, it's going to be a new version of the stage. 
But still, the odds of this second stage 1.1 appearing this year are not zero.
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Offline mheney

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #6 on: 01/15/2014 05:52 pm »
I'm in for "None of these" as well - depending on how many of their other milestones they hit in 2014, you might start to see stage 2 events in 2015.  Of course, I'd love to be proved spectacularly wrong ...

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #7 on: 01/15/2014 06:08 pm »
I see them maybe doing some rudimentary[1] stuff... fitting legs, applying some PICA-X and trying some reentries... doesn't have to be the SAME team that's doing S1 work.  So I voted for those.  But I doubt they would do more than gather data, so didn't vote for any of the successes....  (that includes not expecting they would even splashdown intact much less land or refly)

NONE of these is the safe way to vote but I've been wildly optimistic in all the other polls so why stop now?

1 - compared to how far along they are on S1, this stuff is rudimentary :)
« Last Edit: 01/15/2014 06:28 pm by Lar »
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #8 on: 01/15/2014 06:09 pm »
We've seen basically nothing about second stage recovery for a long time. I voted none.
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Offline Tass

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #9 on: 01/15/2014 06:13 pm »
I voted for most of them, then I noticed it said second stage and changed my vote.

None of these.

Offline Elmar Moelzer

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #10 on: 01/15/2014 06:20 pm »
I selected none of these. They are busy enough without working on second stage recovery this year.

Maybe 2016.
Yeah, I am afraid that is what will happen. But then, I will be more than satisfied if I get to see a first stage RTLS this year.

Offline schaban

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #11 on: 01/15/2014 06:30 pm »
voted 1,3 & 4; with a caveat: it depends on SpaceX modifying 2nd stage. It appears to me that current 2nd stage can't survive long enough for re-entry attempt.

However, development of 2nd stage is independent from other SpaceX projects, as long as connection interfaces stay the same. And I see no reason for them to be changed.

Anyway, 2nd stage team have time to concentrate on extending its lifespan.

SpaceX definitely will try new 2nd stage tweaks on every flight. I doubt that they would go as far as adding legs and/or other equipment this year, but I think they will prolong 2nd stage life long enough that is could be operational during re-entry. After that, add some heat protection will almost guarantee re-entry survival. Turn and restart wiil permit survivable splashdown.

Yes, pure speculation, but I think more reasonable then recovering any part of FH this year...


Offline AncientU

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #12 on: 01/15/2014 06:32 pm »
zip, zilch, nada...
(please let me be wrong)
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Offline MTom

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #13 on: 01/15/2014 07:05 pm »
I think that they will try to do some crazy controlled re-entry attempts, without much hope for success, in order to gather as much data as possible.

I could imagine the same.
For example a reentry attempt with a heat shield. No burn of the Merlin engine after leaving LEO. Similar to Dragon reentry (of course, without parachutes).

Question is: How "simple" is to adapt the necessary F9R-developments from the first stage and from Dragon?
« Last Edit: 01/15/2014 07:10 pm by MTom »

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #14 on: 01/15/2014 07:54 pm »
Official request for an answer also sent on this too.....I honestly don't know as of right now.
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Offline oiorionsbelt

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #15 on: 01/15/2014 08:25 pm »
I went with attempt recovery.
 SpaceX likely has a small team working just this issue. In much the same way that Grasshopper has only 25 people working on it, second stage reuse may have 5 people working on it. There have been numerous opinions expressed here over the years along the lines of....They have enough on their plate already, X will be put off until they are done with Y and Z. Whereas I think they are working multiple fronts simultaneously.
« Last Edit: 01/15/2014 08:26 pm by oiorionsbelt »

Offline Lars_J

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #16 on: 01/15/2014 08:31 pm »
I voted none of the above. 2nd stage reuse is years away, I think.

Offline Mader Levap

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #17 on: 01/15/2014 08:38 pm »
Second stage recovery/reuse in any shape or form? In 2014? Forget it.
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Offline AncientU

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #18 on: 01/15/2014 08:38 pm »
Official request for an answer also sent on this too.....I honestly don't know as of right now.
Not fair using actual 'knowledge' -- you might even be ruled OT.
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Offline Kabloona

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #19 on: 01/15/2014 08:43 pm »
I voted "none of the above" and will go further and say I think it's unlikely S2 recovery will be pursued due to the performance hit and diminishing returns (as compared to S1 recovery).
« Last Edit: 01/15/2014 08:44 pm by Kabloona »

Offline oiorionsbelt

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #20 on: 01/15/2014 10:21 pm »
I voted none of the above. 2nd stage reuse is years away, I think.
Second stage recovery/reuse in any shape or form? In 2014? Forget it.
So do you guys think there will be an attempt? Like they did on the very first F9's when 1st stage recovery was attempted even though it failed and a whole new approach was initiated.
« Last Edit: 01/15/2014 10:21 pm by oiorionsbelt »

Offline intrepidpursuit

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #21 on: 01/15/2014 10:49 pm »
Voted for none of the above.

I think it is possible that they will announce further plans, maybe unveil a second stage with a heatshield and we will start speculating about when they will try to use it. They have too much backlog to risk making major changes to S2 right now. If they make an attempt to reenter it will be atop FH...

Offline CuddlyRocket

Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #22 on: 01/16/2014 01:30 am »
I think that they will try to do some crazy controlled re-entry attempts, without much hope for success, in order to gather as much data as possible.

Exactly. It's pretty straightforward and costs little to attempt a return, recovery. All data is useful. But I don't think they'll try anything with much serious hope of success this year, when they'll be concentrating on the first stage and the other little things on their plate!

Offline DJPledger

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #23 on: 01/16/2014 08:25 am »
No way will SpaceX attempt to do any reusability testing on F9 2nd stage this year. They need to get 1st stage reusability working reliably first before they do any work on 2nd stage reusability.

Offline Bargemanos

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #24 on: 01/16/2014 01:49 pm »
Voted for "Re-enter the atmosphere intact".
Just to gather as much information as possible.

This is more a "I hope they will" thing.

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #25 on: 01/16/2014 02:10 pm »
I voted splash down intact... or at least try to, very late in the year... with no intent on recovery, as this will be a one off for the year, to get some data... maybe recover some parts, as it is unlikely to actually be intact on first try...

ok in one way I am being conservative, but according to the vote count, I am wildly optimistic  :D

my reasoning is, that with progress on the first stage, they may have an opening for something like what I described above this year... probably NET late Nov/Dec.... but likely to push into 2015...

enough CMA for you guys    ::)

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Offline Mader Levap

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #26 on: 01/16/2014 04:15 pm »
So do you guys think there will be an attempt?
In 2014? Not even that. In fact, I think second stage recovery&reuse will be relegated to next generation of SpaceX rockets. Or at least F9 v.1.2, but even that is stretch.
« Last Edit: 01/16/2014 06:09 pm by Mader Levap »
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Offline rcoppola

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #27 on: 01/16/2014 04:28 pm »
I put "Attempt Recovery". i don't think they will do any mods to 2nd stage such as legs or added TPS. But I think they will do some additional RCS test maneuvers, additional engine relights (3). I mean why not? On CRS fights, they have margin to "Play" with and maybe get some additional data on controlled reentry sequences.
« Last Edit: 01/16/2014 04:29 pm by rcoppola »
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Offline mme

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #28 on: 01/16/2014 04:44 pm »
I put "Attempt Recovery". i don't think they will do any mods to 2nd stage such as legs or added TPS. But I think they will do some additional RCS test maneuvers, additional engine relights (3). I mean why not? On CRS fights, they have margin to "Play" with and maybe get some additional data on controlled reentry sequences.
I selected "none of the above" because I think they already have too much on their plate. I do agree that they may experiment with reentry to collect some data, but I couldn't check the "return/recovery" option because I don't see anyway for a second stage to survive reentry without a heat shield. "Controlled" reentry still results in pieces too small to recover.

I'm not a rocket scientist and I'm a newbie to the forum, so I could be completely full of it.
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Offline rcoppola

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #29 on: 01/16/2014 05:35 pm »
I put "Attempt Recovery". i don't think they will do any mods to 2nd stage such as legs or added TPS. But I think they will do some additional RCS test maneuvers, additional engine relights (3). I mean why not? On CRS fights, they have margin to "Play" with and maybe get some additional data on controlled reentry sequences.
I selected "none of the above" because I think they already have too much on their plate. I do agree that they may experiment with reentry to collect some data, but I couldn't check the "return/recovery" option because I don't see anyway for a second stage to survive reentry without a heat shield. "Controlled" reentry still results in pieces too small to recover.

I'm not a rocket scientist and I'm a newbie to the forum, so I could be completely full of it.
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No, you're on the right track. I guess I would have added some nuance to the first choice where it's not so much Attempt Reentry but more experimentation with certain reentry profiles to gain further data to support future attempts.
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Offline Barrie

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #30 on: 01/16/2014 08:19 pm »
I voted none.  I think they will decide they don't want to sacrifice any more performance for the time being, so they won't pursue it this year.  I don't think 'too much on their plate' will be the reason - Musk seems able to delegate  :)

Offline Halidon

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #31 on: 01/17/2014 01:19 am »
We've not yet seen even a hint of the reusable second stage hardware, and they have a pretty full plate with GH2, first stage development, Dragon2/DragonRider testing, and FH. Voted none of the above for this year.

Offline subzero788

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #32 on: 01/17/2014 12:12 pm »
Not a chance of any of these...second stage recovery will be a lot harder than first stage recovery, and they will be lucky if they can do that in 2014

Offline Norm38

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #33 on: 01/17/2014 01:59 pm »
I voted None for '14. I doubt they'd do any real second stage work until they land a first stage and release Dragon 2. They have their hands full for this year.

But for '15 there are opportunities to begin testing second stage reentry. (Jason)

Offline MP99

Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #34 on: 01/18/2014 08:13 pm »
I voted none.

If they have dV remaining after a LEO mission they may de-orbit a second stage, but without heatshield, so not a "recovery" attempt.

cheers, Martin

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #35 on: 01/18/2014 10:59 pm »
I voted none, but:

Groupthink[1] says that 2014 is too early to see much, if any, second stage reuse testing, even preliminary things like trying to reenter an otherwise unmodified second stage and not have it tumble initially (till it melts, since it's unshielded), but maybe 2015?

This seems like good thinking. As for 2014 being too early, I voted that way but ... for Jason 3 and indeed for recovery of any second stage that was tasked with a two-burn mission profile (i.e. GTO) the first step of stage recovery would likely involve a third burn, i.e. a second restart much later in the mission. I could see SpaceX doing early trials of just that step in 2014, even if there wasn't sufficient residual propellant to send the stage immediately into the atmosphere.
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Offline ClaytonBirchenough

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #36 on: 01/26/2014 02:12 pm »
I selected "none of these". SpaceX will iron out the kinks with first stage recovery/reuse in 2014.
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Offline ClaytonBirchenough

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #37 on: 04/25/2014 02:33 pm »
? 162 voters voted for "None of these" equaling ~48%. However, 162 / 231 = ~70%. The poll is not calculating correctly...?
Clayton Birchenough

Offline Mongo62

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #38 on: 04/25/2014 02:40 pm »
? 162 voters voted for "None of these" equaling ~48%. However, 162 / 231 = ~70%. The poll is not calculating correctly...?

231 people voted, but they could choose more than one answer. So that 48% represents the percentage of all options chosen, not of all people voting.

Offline ClaytonBirchenough

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #39 on: 04/25/2014 03:14 pm »
? 162 voters voted for "None of these" equaling ~48%. However, 162 / 231 = ~70%. The poll is not calculating correctly...?

231 people voted, but they could choose more than one answer. So that 48% represents the percentage of all options chosen, not of all people voting.

Ah, haha thank you.  ::)
Clayton Birchenough

Offline Vultur

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE
« Reply #40 on: 04/27/2014 03:34 am »
I voted none of the above. 2nd stage reuse is years away, I think.

I agree.

I imagine they will do it eventually - Elon recently said, IIRC, first stage is 70% of the cost. 30% of the current cost ($56.5 million according to the website) would be nearly $17 million, much more than the $7 million we've heard as the eventual goal.

But I'd be very surprised to see any major steps to it before we've seen Falcon Heavy and Dragon 2 fly. Of course, I'm really just guessing...

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