Author Topic: Is Affordable Exploration Feasible?  (Read 79190 times)

Offline Xplor

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Is Affordable Exploration Feasible?
« on: 11/06/2010 12:06 pm »
* Constellation required funding that never materialized
* The Augustine commission stated that another $3B per year is required to enable exploration
* The president's 2011 budget request called for the first beyond LEO mission in 2025
* HEFT1 included 1 high Earth orbit, 1 Lagrange and 1 asteroid mission over 20 years (not particularly inspiring) while exceeding their budget by an average of $750m per year.

My question is: Are there any credible sources (NASA studies, corporate sponsored studies, other) indicating that inspiring exploration can be accomplished within currently anticipated budgets.  If so, can any of these proposed "affordable" exploration paths survive reductions in NASA's top level budget?

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Is Affordable Exploration Feasible?
« Reply #1 on: 11/06/2010 01:21 pm »
Yes.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline Rabidpanda

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Offline hydra9

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Re: Is Affordable Exploration Feasible?
« Reply #3 on: 11/09/2010 09:31 am »
The Constellation program had a $3.4 billion dollar a year budget in 2009. With no $3 billion a year Space Shuttle program, that would give NASA $6.4 billion a year. That's $64 billion in funding over a decade, plenty of funds for an HLV, CEV, Service Module, and even a lunar module. If the ISS was decommissioned in 2016 as originally planned, that would have given NASA and additional $10 billion in funds by 2020.

Here's a link to a pdf copy of NASA's last HLV study in May and the various relative cost estimates:

https://docs.google.com/fileview?id=0BzLX4wxxT-QNMmE1NTdjOWItYWE1ZS00NTBmLWJmNzItOWJmNGVlMjkwOTdj&hl=en

Marcel F. Williams

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Is Affordable Exploration Feasible?
« Reply #4 on: 11/09/2010 12:53 pm »
From the report that Marcel posted:

Page 2: Work within budget scenarios.
Page 18: Schedule for Unconstrained Budget

Bottom line?  They worked within the unconstrained budget scenario.  Problem solved.

In a five minute scan of the document, I have developed a jaundiced view of its "pre-decisional" validity for prioritizing the work it purportedly set out to do.

I could take time to study the document further, but I feel that I need some mental technique in order to believe in the document's factuality and truthiness.  Without that belief, I struggle to see its utility.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline Jim

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Re: Is Affordable Exploration Feasible?
« Reply #5 on: 11/09/2010 01:44 pm »
The Constellation program had a $3.4 billion dollar a year budget in 2009. With no $3 billion a year Space Shuttle program, that would give NASA $6.4 billion a year. That's $64 billion in funding over a decade, plenty of funds for an HLV, CEV, Service Module, and even a lunar module.

Wrong.  The money funds other things than the manned vehicles. 

Offline jongoff

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Re: Is Affordable Exploration Feasible?
« Reply #6 on: 11/09/2010 02:10 pm »
The Constellation program had a $3.4 billion dollar a year budget in 2009. With no $3 billion a year Space Shuttle program, that would give NASA $6.4 billion a year. That's $64 billion in funding over a decade, plenty of funds for an HLV, CEV, Service Module, and even a lunar module.

Wrong.  The money funds other things than the manned vehicles. 

Including the cost of keeping the various operational groups on life-support while the development is done, and paying the fixed costs of keeping the operational team together once the development is done, but before ops start....

~Jon

Offline Namechange User

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Re: Is Affordable Exploration Feasible?
« Reply #7 on: 11/09/2010 02:44 pm »
The Constellation program had a $3.4 billion dollar a year budget in 2009. With no $3 billion a year Space Shuttle program, that would give NASA $6.4 billion a year. That's $64 billion in funding over a decade, plenty of funds for an HLV, CEV, Service Module, and even a lunar module.

Wrong.  The money funds other things than the manned vehicles. 

Including the cost of keeping the various operational groups on life-support while the development is done, and paying the fixed costs of keeping the operational team together once the development is done, but before ops start....

~Jon

There will not be a large "operational team" to keep together if whatever is selected is heavy on development.  So, no worries.  The people you so despise will be mostly gone and no need for "life-support".
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Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Is Affordable Exploration Feasible?
« Reply #8 on: 11/09/2010 03:39 pm »
Including the cost of keeping the various operational groups on life-support while the development is done, and paying the fixed costs of keeping the operational team together once the development is done, but before ops start....

I agree with your summary.

When you say "life support system", and the costs of "keeping the operational team together", clearly something along these lines is necessary.  What is the characterization of the work that those teams would be doing in the meantime?  I have a pre-decisional, but jaundiced view unless there can be elaboration on the work that these people do.  I feel sure that you do not "despise" these people; OV is a mite testy.

Thumb twiddling is not acceptable.  Neither, really, are further reports.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline Namechange User

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Re: Is Affordable Exploration Feasible?
« Reply #9 on: 11/09/2010 04:05 pm »
I don't think I'm being testy.  It's just a simple fact that if everything we someday fly is heavily focused on development first that there will be zero need to have a large ops team around during that time. 

As for the "fixed costs of keeping an ops team once development is done, but before ops start", well that's not reality.  I believe Jon is overlooking that this is called transition and that will be a necessary expense regardless of the design being built.  Obviously, whatever is used, cannot just be built and then jump immediately into ops.  So an ops team will have to be ramped up, trained, etc as design is winding down so that ops can begin.  Again, this is necessary regardless of the desgin.   

My personal belief, and I can't prove it obviously, is this was an attempt to try to draw further malice against anyone that would remain for a SDLV vehicle.  No big deal either way, but just figured I would point that out. 
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Offline KelvinZero

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Re: Is Affordable Exploration Feasible?
« Reply #10 on: 11/10/2010 07:27 am »
* Constellation required funding that never materialized
* The Augustine commission stated that another $3B per year is required to enable exploration
* The president's 2011 budget request called for the first beyond LEO mission in 2025
* HEFT1 included 1 high Earth orbit, 1 Lagrange and 1 asteroid mission over 20 years (not particularly inspiring) while exceeding their budget by an average of $750m per year.

My question is: Are there any credible sources (NASA studies, corporate sponsored studies, other) indicating that inspiring exploration can be accomplished within currently anticipated budgets.  If so, can any of these proposed "affordable" exploration paths survive reductions in NASA's top level budget?



Back to the OP, one question is how you define exploration and what you intend to achieve by it. I think we all agree what is really meant is humans going to destinations beyond earth orbit but we probably have different ideas of what we intend to achieve.

For example I would be thrilled if we could afford sustain a permanent  manned base on the moon. It has very little to do with exploration. They could stay within a 20km radius for all I care so long as we actually were pushing our boundaries on all the technology to maintain that base: life support, ISRU and so on. Of course if we could get to the moon, im sure we would do a lot more exploration than 20km. Im just saying it isnt the amount of exploration that excites me, but what progress we are making towards people one day living there.

Because of this, I would also be pretty thrilled by a permanent robotic colony. Im sure this is affordable. On the other hand an apollo-style mission to mars would horrify me if there was no expectation that we would keep going, if we would get there, say "been there, done that" and shut it all down again, or build an even bigger rocket so we could stand on an even further rock.

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Is Affordable Exploration Feasible?
« Reply #11 on: 11/10/2010 02:03 pm »
I don't think I'm being testy.

The word "despise" has to do with the word "testy".  Moving on:

Quote
So an ops team will have to be ramped up, trained, etc as design is winding down so that ops can begin.

It is this area where I think the SLS cost arguments are suspect.  And I think you're right about clarifying the transition process; I also think that Jon missed somewhat in his characterization.  Those existing tanks, the loss of current production capability, the ramping up of new production capability, the modification of the tanks, the ramping down and ramping up of ops.  Sheesh.  I can say with utmost confidence that it is easier to price a new deck addition on a house than it is to price all of that SLS stuff.

And I suggest that the cost arguments are suspect in a broad sense which doesn't involve the Illuminati, or other mal-intentioned entities.  Sorry, Sally, but... Those famous charts?  They're just a bunch of lines on a power point slide show.  That's the only level of detail that's available to me.

I'm generally in agreement with the asking of Kelvin's question; how is exploration defined?  And generally in agreement with the several "thrilling" possibilities that he mentions.  I would add a push for the L1 ring station/depot/hotel.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline Namechange User

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Re: Is Affordable Exploration Feasible?
« Reply #12 on: 11/10/2010 02:20 pm »
I don't think I'm being testy.

The word "despise" has to do with the word "testy".  Moving on:


Nope.  I think it is a fair statement based on multiple posts here and comments he has posted on his blog.  I don't control the perception he presents. 
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Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Is Affordable Exploration Feasible?
« Reply #13 on: 11/10/2010 02:45 pm »
Well that's fine too.  I hadn't been paying quite as close attention to that as you have been.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline OpsAnalyst

Re: Is Affordable Exploration Feasible?
« Reply #14 on: 11/11/2010 04:36 pm »
The Constellation program had a $3.4 billion dollar a year budget in 2009. With no $3 billion a year Space Shuttle program, that would give NASA $6.4 billion a year. That's $64 billion in funding over a decade, plenty of funds for an HLV, CEV, Service Module, and even a lunar module.

Wrong.  The money funds other things than the manned vehicles. 

Including the cost of keeping the various operational groups on life-support while the development is done, and paying the fixed costs of keeping the operational team together once the development is done, but before ops start....

~Jon

Just curious - have you been tracking the cost reductions in ops over, say, the past 10 years?  I can't speak for anyone else but MOD has been working three programs (Shuttle, ISS and CxP development, plus various other support roles) for what it cost just for shuttle 20 years ago.  The reductions are significant and they had targets for an additional 30/50 reduction _prior_ to the President's FY 2010 budget request.  I am not certain what to make of comments such as this one that appear apparently without context.  I'm a data-driven kinda gal; what information do you have about planning?

That aside, costs to disband/mothball ops then reconstitute ops have to be considered as a trade vis-a-vis maintenance, particularly if there are other roles in the meantime.  Transition isn't cut and dried. 

Offline khallow

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Re: Is Affordable Exploration Feasible?
« Reply #15 on: 11/11/2010 06:05 pm »

Just curious - have you been tracking the cost reductions in ops over, say, the past 10 years?  I can't speak for anyone else but MOD has been working three programs (Shuttle, ISS and CxP development, plus various other support roles) for what it cost just for shuttle 20 years ago.

Two of those programs, Constellation and Shuttle are almost shut down. They should be spending less money than they did 20 years ago.
Karl Hallowell

Offline Namechange User

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Re: Is Affordable Exploration Feasible?
« Reply #16 on: 11/11/2010 06:29 pm »

Just curious - have you been tracking the cost reductions in ops over, say, the past 10 years?  I can't speak for anyone else but MOD has been working three programs (Shuttle, ISS and CxP development, plus various other support roles) for what it cost just for shuttle 20 years ago.

Two of those programs, Constellation and Shuttle are almost shut down. They should be spending less money than they did 20 years ago.

Totally missed the larger point.  What you did point out is yet another reminder of an agency in drift with nothing to work toward. 
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Offline Jorge

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Re: Is Affordable Exploration Feasible?
« Reply #17 on: 11/11/2010 06:44 pm »

Just curious - have you been tracking the cost reductions in ops over, say, the past 10 years?  I can't speak for anyone else but MOD has been working three programs (Shuttle, ISS and CxP development, plus various other support roles) for what it cost just for shuttle 20 years ago.

Two of those programs, Constellation and Shuttle are almost shut down. They should be spending less money than they did 20 years ago.

Incorrect. She is referring to ops cost reductions prior to February 2010, when Constellation ops development was still running full steam and so was shuttle. The cost savings she is referring to are unrelated to either Constellation or shuttle shutdown.
JRF

Offline madscientist197

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Re: Is Affordable Exploration Feasible?
« Reply #18 on: 11/12/2010 09:20 am »
I guess that does give an idea of how much discussion goes on here without real factual proof (in all fairness, it's kinda hard for us non-space professionals to do the research to have truely educated opinions in this respect).
John

Offline Jorge

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Re: Is Affordable Exploration Feasible?
« Reply #19 on: 11/13/2010 05:32 pm »
I guess that does give an idea of how much discussion goes on here without real factual proof (in all fairness, it's kinda hard for us non-space professionals to do the research to have truely educated opinions in this respect).

These facts were mentioned in a Paul Hill MOD all-hands meeting. I think the charts (and maybe the video) of that all-hands are on L2.
JRF

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