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anik
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« on: 06/14/2007 04:16 PM » |
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Assessment of ESA’s ATV mission readiness results in a new launch windowhttp://www.esa.int/esaCP/SEM8MIXXV2F_index_0.html"The on-going qualification review, launcher availability (a specially built Ariane 5 version) and 'heavy traffic' at the International Space Station towards the end of the year, lead to a revised launch window that sees now a possibility for the Jules Verne ATV to lift-off not earlier than mid-January 2008"
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« on: 06/14/2007 04:16 PM » |
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Danderman
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« Reply #1 on: 06/14/2007 05:10 PM » |
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Is this a delay?
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anik
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« Reply #2 on: 06/14/2007 06:30 PM » |
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Danderman - 14/6/2007 9:10 PM
Is this a delay? Yes... The latest official ATV-1 launch date was November 15, 2007... Now it is NET mid-January 2008...
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meiza
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« Reply #3 on: 06/14/2007 07:19 PM » |
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Gosh. I'd like to see a graphical representation of these delays. When and how much were the delays.
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Danderman
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« Reply #4 on: 06/14/2007 07:47 PM » |
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meiza - 14/6/2007 12:19 PM Gosh. I'd like to see a graphical representation of these delays. When and how much were the delays. I once did a graph of ATV delays, and it described a hyperbola, ie the delay times were greater than real time, so the graph showed ATV would never be launched. 
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hektor
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« Reply #5 on: 06/14/2007 08:02 PM » |
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Why do you do partial quotes , you quote the delay, but you fail to quote that the ATV will be shipped next month to French Guiana.
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Zachstar
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« Reply #6 on: 06/14/2007 08:17 PM » |
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hektor - 14/6/2007 3:02 PM
Why do you do partial quotes , you quote the delay, but you fail to quote that the ATV will be shipped next month to French Guiana. Because that has nothing to do with the delay reason mentioned. And to be frank.. It can be shipped to china for all I care. This is still another delay on a long delayed launch of this craft.
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whitewatcher
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« Reply #7 on: 06/15/2007 08:53 AM » |
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Well the good news is: There's progress in the the ATV project. Bad news is: It's not going as straight as it should.
Afaik, NASA doesn't want to launch columbus before ATV has proven it's ability to supply the european lab. But ESA doesn't want to launch the ATV before there's everyhing ready for the Columbus to be installed.
In other words: NASA is unwilling to launch a shuttle mission with a 1:75 chance of a catasrophic failure just in order to deliver a near useless module. At the same time, ESA is unwilling to kick off a series of supply ship launches without having a lab in orbit to supply.
Seen from this point of view, the upcoming shuttle and ATV missions over the next 6 months are linked to each other:
- STS-122: Delivery of columbus, NASA wants to see a docked ATV before, so ...
- ATV-1 Jules Verne, ESA want's to have power and docking port available for Columbus delivery, so ...
- STS-120: Node2 provides docking port and P6 final installation
=> A delay in the ATV schedule may suggest another change in the STS launch schedule.
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Analyst
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« Reply #8 on: 06/15/2007 09:43 AM » |
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whitewatcher - 15/6/2007 10:53 AM
(1) Afaik, NASA doesn't want to launch columbus before ATV has proven it's ability to supply the european lab. But ESA doesn't want to launch the ATV before there's everyhing ready for the Columbus to be installed.
(2) NASA is unwilling to launch a shuttle mission with a 1:75 chance of a catasrophic failure
(3) just in order to deliver a near useless module.
(4) Seen from this point of view, the upcoming shuttle and ATV missions over the next 6 months are linked to each other:
- STS-122: Delivery of columbus, NASA wants to see a docked ATV before, so ...
- ATV-1 Jules Verne, ESA want's to have power and docking port available for Columbus delivery, so ...
- STS-120: Node2 provides docking port and P6 final installation
(5) => A delay in the ATV schedule may suggest another change in the STS launch schedule. (1) Do you have sources for this? (2) Sources? 1:75? (3) Columbus is NOT near useless without ATV. (4) ATV has to find it's place in the launch schedule. I strongly doubt it has to be before STS-122 but after STS-120. It was once planned before STS-120 (in June/July). NASA and ESA do not want prove the other will deliver. (5) I am not convinced by your arguments. Analyst
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whitewatcher
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« Reply #9 on: 06/15/2007 10:46 AM » |
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Analyst - 15/6/2007 11:43 AM
whitewatcher - 15/6/2007 10:53 AM
(1) Afaik, NASA doesn't want to launch columbus before ATV has proven it's ability to supply the european lab. But ESA doesn't want to launch the ATV before there's everyhing ready for the Columbus to be installed.
(2) NASA is unwilling to launch a shuttle mission with a 1:75 chance of a catasrophic failure
(3) just in order to deliver a near useless module.
(4) Seen from this point of view, the upcoming shuttle and ATV missions over the next 6 months are linked to each other:
- STS-122: Delivery of columbus, NASA wants to see a docked ATV before, so ...
- ATV-1 Jules Verne, ESA want's to have power and docking port available for Columbus delivery, so ...
- STS-120: Node2 provides docking port and P6 final installation
(5) => A delay in the ATV schedule may suggest another change in the STS launch schedule.
(1) Do you have sources for this?
(2) Sources? 1:75?
(3) Columbus is NOT near useless without ATV.
(4) ATV has to find it's place in the launch schedule. I strongly doubt it has to be before STS-122 but after STS-120. It was once planned before STS-120 (in June/July). NASA and ESA do not want prove the other will deliver.
(5) I am not convinced by your arguments.
Analyst (1) Heard from several independant people doing ATV-related work. (2) Michael Griffin interview on this website ... or 2 losses / ca. 150 flights = 1:75 statistic probability (3) Okay, right, COF can hold supply and storage racks (and it actually does, EDR for example). But in order to do science there you need to bring experiments and astronauts (+supplies) up. I don't know if the standard rack drawers can be transportet that easily by Progress craft. Do you have an alternative to the ATV after 2010? (4) ESA has spent a great amount of money on the ISS over the past 15 years without getting much in return. Why should they launch an ATV when there's no reason for continued european presence on the ISS? Save the Ariane V and use sell it to a commercial LSP. (5) This is far from being official. Just things I've picked up in several places. According to Griffin, there's an approx. 1:5 statistic chance of another orbiter loss until the station is completed. They are taking the risk because they owe it to their IPs, but it's not making them feel easy. If there's a reason to save a shuttle flight or two, they'll be grateful.
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Danderman
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« Reply #10 on: 06/15/2007 01:03 PM » |
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The Columbus module will be launched nearly full of science experiments. ATV cannot carry Columbus science racks, since the racks cannot pass through the ATV docking system. The function of ATV is to indirectly support Columbus by providing common ops logistic support, although it is possible that ATV may carry rack modules that may be individually transported to Columbus. It is possible to operate Columbus at ISS without ATV at all.
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simpl simon
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« Reply #11 on: 06/15/2007 01:21 PM » |
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Danderman - 15/6/2007 3:03 PM
The Columbus module will be launched nearly full of science experiments. ATV cannot carry Columbus science racks, since the racks cannot pass through the ATV docking system. The function of ATV is to indirectly support Columbus by providing common ops logistic support, although it is possible that ATV may carry rack modules that may be individually transported to Columbus. It is possible to operate Columbus at ISS without ATV at all.
Right, when ATV was designed, ths shuttle was going to provide transportation for experiment racks, and these could be changed out through the APAS. However, it is not strictly true to say that Columbus could be operated at ISS without ATV at all. In the absence of the shuttle, ATV will provide a critical service for smaller experiment modules, tools and spare parts (not to mention the re-boost function and ISS attitude control propellant), without which Columbus would not long be operational. In addition, ATV provides the logistics service as a barter to offset ESA's share of the ISS common operating costs, so without ATV there would be no Columbus operations program.
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anik
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« Reply #12 on: 06/15/2007 01:21 PM » |
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First ATV leaves Europe to prepare for launch from Europe’s Spaceport in French Guianahttp://www.esa.int/esaCP/SEM1PQXXV2F_index_0.html"The Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV) will leave ESA's ESTEC establishment in the Netherlands in mid-July and be shipped to Europe’s Spaceport in Kourou, French Guiana"
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whitewatcher
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« Reply #13 on: 06/15/2007 01:21 PM » |
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Danderman - 15/6/2007 3:03 PM
The Columbus module will be launched nearly full of science experiments. ATV cannot carry Columbus science racks, since the racks cannot pass through the ATV docking system. The function of ATV is to indirectly support Columbus by providing common ops logistic support, although it is possible that ATV may carry rack modules that may be individually transported to Columbus. It is possible to operate Columbus at ISS without ATV at all.
Yes, I agree. It's not impossible to operate COF with Progress supplies, but it would require re-thinking the policy: Buy more capacity from the russians, 3 Progress ships (= 1 ATV) require 3 docking ports instead of one, dependancy on political relations to Russia, additional costs (ATV has been built, a second is flight spare for Jules Verne, part procurement for 3 more is party done, procurement for 1 more is under way, modified version of Ariane V has been developed, ...), .... Operating an orbital lab in LEO is not a matter of technological feasability but a matter of political will. Space programs rise and fall with their political support. And that's where I see the problem. When obstacles appear and have to be dodged, political support diminishes while reaching milestones do the opposite. ESA Milestones are: Columbus installation, ATV flight, permemnent ISS Crew member
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jacqmans
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« Reply #14 on: 06/15/2007 08:30 PM » |
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ATV Media Day
28 June 2007
Erasmus Centre
ESA/ESTEC
Noordwijk, The Netherlands
Programme
0945
Doors open
1000
Welcome
ATV - Preparing for Exploration:
Daniel Sacotte, ESA Director of Human Spaceflight, Microgravity and Exploration
1015
ATV - European Resupply Vessel:
John Ellwood, ATV Project Manager, ESA Directorate of Human Spaceflight, Microgravity and Exploration
1030
ATV - Technological masterpiece:
Nicolas Chamussy, Astrium ATV Programme Director
1045
ATV - Role for Human Spaceflight:
Jean-Francois Clervoy, Astronaut and ATV project advisor
1100
Questions & Answers
Coffee
Transfer to ATV at Test Centre
1130
ATV visit, photo and video opportunities,
opportunity to conduct interviews at the test facilities
1300
Buffet in the Erasmus High Bay with interview opportunities
1500
End of programme
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