Poll

What can we expect when the Falcon Heavy launches?

Catastrophic failure before clearing the launch tower
5 (1%)
Clearing launch tower but failure to reach orbit
83 (16.2%)
Successful flight to orbit
425 (82.8%)

Total Members Voted: 513

Voting closed: 01/28/2018 10:13 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!  (Read 17271 times)

Offline cebri

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Re: POLL: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #40 on: 12/30/2017 09:38 AM »
Chose fail to reach orbit because i know my prediction capabilities are horrible. Good luck SpaceX.  :)

Offline brihath

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Re: POLL: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #41 on: 12/30/2017 10:00 AM »
I am actually voting for clearing the tower but failing to reach the intended orbit.  My main concerns are robustness of control authority with the two strap on boosters flying for the first time, having a clean separation event, and unknowns regarding acoustic loads on the vehicle at engine start/liftoff. 

I believe that the SpaceX folks have learned a lot as demonstrated by their string of successful launches, and the more you fly, the more you learn.  However, this is a totally new vehicle, so I am skeptical that everything will go perfectly.  I wish SpaceX all the best with this launch and hope they have a completely successful flight. 

Offline Rebel44

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Re: POLL: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #42 on: 12/30/2017 11:01 AM »
I voted complete success. I think they will recover all the boosters and put the roadster in a useful orbit.

Online Lar

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Re: POLL: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #43 on: 12/30/2017 11:14 AM »
Mode note: We don't leave polls open indefinitely. We tend to end them either at the 30 day mark (how it is set now after I edited it) or before the event (if a firm launch date is announced, I'll move the end date to just before that date, (remind me via PM if I forget), or if that date is past 28 Jan, leave it).
« Last Edit: 12/30/2017 11:19 AM by Lar »
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Online MATTBLAK

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Re: POLL: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #44 on: 12/30/2017 11:19 AM »
Just can't bring myself to vote on any of these options.
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Offline Hauerg

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Re: POLL: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #45 on: 12/30/2017 11:48 AM »
Success.

But I will br really nervous around maxQ this time.

Online Lar

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Re: POLL: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #46 on: 12/30/2017 11:49 AM »
Just can't bring myself to vote on any of these options.

Happily, voting in this poll is not required to remain an NSF user in good standing, trust me, I checked.

However, to make your post more interesting maybe you could edit it to say why, or what option (not present) you WOULD vote for if it were present?
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Paul451

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Re: POLL: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #47 on: 12/30/2017 01:44 PM »
Voted for the second option. Aerodynamics, vibration, and side-booster separation seem to be the shiny new things.

The number of engines doesn't concern me. (How are these 27 engines any different than the last 162?) So I'm not expecting an explosion on the pad. And after side-booster separation, it's just a F9 launch. The window for problems is therefore in the middle.

But I'm hardly going to disappointed by a total success.



Re: Options.

I think the ideal format for options would be a multi-choice type of poll. Ie, select all the options you think will occur. But I don't think the site's polling format works for multi-choice.

Ie,

Will there be a successful...

(x) Engine start
(x) Lift-off
(x) Tower clearance
(x) Max-Q passage
(x) Both side-booster separation
(x) MECO & core staging
(  ) No engine failures
(x) Second stage ignition
(x) Fairing separation
(  ) Both side-booster landing
(  ) Core booster landing
(  ) Fairing recovery
(x) SECO with sufficient velocity to not re-enter Earth's atmosphere
(x) BEO trajectory
(  ) Mars orbit crossing trajectory

With an example of how someone might vote: Successful launch, but problems with at least one stage landing, and an early engine shut-down or multi-engine throttle-down leading to insertion into a non-Mars-crossing solar orbit.

My own vote would be the first three options, suspecting failure on the fourth of fifth. (Which precludes the rest.)

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #48 on: 12/30/2017 03:30 PM »
I voted successful to orbit. SpaceX has done significant careful engineering work and not assumed stuff is correct but assumes something can go wrong and therefor approached everything about the launch carefully. But unlike some NASA tasking it doesn't have an obsessive POV for "cannot fail". There is a bad cultural item with the "cannot fail" POV and that is assuming that all the work on some subsystem and it testing means that you can relies on that subsystem to not fail and therefore the design and work on this other subsystem that is dependent dose not have to compensate if it can for failure of the other subsystem. This can change a failure that can be survived into catastrophic failure. I am glad SpaceX has avoided this culture.

Offline Oersted

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Re: POLL: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #49 on: 12/30/2017 04:16 PM »
However, this is a totally new vehicle, so I am skeptical that everything will go perfectly.

It is far from a totally new vehicle. So many parts are tried and tested... It is just the whole that is unproven.

Offline Proponent

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Re: POLL: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #50 on: 12/30/2017 04:46 PM »
Count me among the crowd:  it'll reach orbit.

Online MATTBLAK

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Re: POLL: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #51 on: 12/30/2017 07:26 PM »
Just can't bring myself to vote on any of these options.

Happily, voting in this poll is not required to remain an NSF user in good standing, trust me, I checked.

However, to make your post more interesting maybe you could edit it to say why, or what option (not present) you WOULD vote for if it were present?
Well; it's just nervousness and the fact I think it needs at least one or two more options. Mission Success: but with a couple of caveats. Or Mission Failure with a couple of caveats, also etc.
« Last Edit: 12/30/2017 07:26 PM by MATTBLAK »
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Offline hop

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Re: POLL: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #52 on: 12/30/2017 07:49 PM »
Voted failure to orbit, but my gut feeling is more like
5% - Catastrophic before clearing tower
40% - Failure to orbit
25% - Orbit, but significantly off-nominal
30% - Nominal

Offline the_other_Doug

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Re: POLL: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #53 on: 12/30/2017 08:11 PM »
I feel it is like 80% likely that the thing goes off exactly as planned, and that's the option I voted for.  Now, of the 20% off-nominal possibilities, I'm thinking, ranked irrationally in order of how likely I think they will happen (purely by gut feel):

-  Side cores land fine RTLS, center core goes through just too hot of an entry to be recovered.  It hits OCISLY.  I didn't say it lands on OCISLY, I say it hits the droneship.

-  Supersonic shock waves from the side cores have an unanticipated synergistic effect, teaching SpaceX the lesson that they have to space the cores' final descents about 90 to 120 seconds apart.  This could cause complete loss of one or both of the side cores.

-  Someone accidentally loads the exact same GPS co-ordinates for RTLS landing points in each of the side cores, and we get to see the fascinating -- but brief-- spectacle of two cores trying to each land on the exact same postage stamp of landing zone.  With, um, mixed degrees of success.  As in "It did land, just not all in one piece"... ;)

-  Upper stage has some kind of unforeseen issue dealing with unanticipated increased vibration loads, and fails.  I'd say, though, that this is the last item you could apply to the FH config.  Everything beyond this -- fairings, upper stage restart, etc. -- are common with current F9 operations.

I truly don't think they will have issues with the engine start, lift-off, tri-core flight or side booster sep.  I'll be keeping fingers and toes crossed throughout, though.... just in case.
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Offline philw1776

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Re: POLL: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #54 on: 12/30/2017 08:34 PM »
Successful LEO
Successful BEO

Make it so!
“When it looks more like an alien dreadnought, that’s when you know you’ve won.”

Offline OxCartMark

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Re: POLL: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #55 on: 12/31/2017 12:53 AM »
I voted "Clearing launch tower but failure to reach orbit" but that's not necessarily the outcome I believe has the highest probability of occurring.  The reason I voted that way is that I think the voting so far (at least from the text reports (didn't get to see poll results until I voted)) has been higher than the probability I would project and I wanted to move that group average down a bit.  I honestly don't know what outcome to expect.  Very much looking forward to seeing what happens and hearing / feeling it.  Some other predictions and thoughts:

- There are going to be a frustrating number of cycles of loading propellant, adrenalating for flight, propellant unloading, re-scheduling.

- I will go and spend 5 days in Florida and perhaps do it again but will end up watching it on this screen.

- I drastically hope they don't destroy the pad.  That would be vastly bad.  History.  Crew delay. Long rebuild period.
 Really bad.

- If it does fail I'll bet one of the outcomes will be that they say they could have done X or Y with the software to have gotten a better outcome.  Similar to the way that they may have been able to land the CRS-7 Dragon if the software had been able to deploy parachutes in that scenario.

- (a general comment whether F9 or FH from 39A) I'm uncomfortable with the ramp leading downhill from the pad to the HIF, a failure on or onto the pad could result in the HIF being taken out by a tsunami of fire.

- For reasons I can't pin down some part of me says this could be Musk's Spruce Goose.  One flight and then an announcement that its not worth continuing with the program ~ wait for BFR.  Low probability I know.

- Since this launch should draw a number of NSFers I suggest someone designate a hotel for all to be together, organize a dinner, situation room, common watching mob etc.

- I don't share the view some have posted above that the center core stands a significant chance of failing to land because of a super high re-entry speed.  The roadster is significantly lighter than max load for Mars so the center core should be able to have a generous amount of fuel with which to do a super long boost back burn even after pushing the upper stage up to a safe margin of speed, perhaps enough delta V (based on seat of the pants feel only) to arrest all forward motion and re-enter with no horizontal component of velocity.

All just a bunch of words now this which is serious - I wish them the best of luck with this launch.


Offline Oersted

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Re: POLL: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #56 on: 12/31/2017 01:47 AM »
I voted "Clearing launch tower but failure to reach orbit" but that's not necessarily the outcome I believe has the highest probability of occurring.  The reason I voted that way is that I think the voting so far (at least from the text reports (didn't get to see poll results until I voted)) has been higher than the probability I would project and I wanted to move that group average down a bit.

What is this desire to project anything? To show what you think are NSF'ers idea?

- Honestly I don't see any need to try to game the poll. It is not as if it is very important... Just vote what you think is most likely and let the voting totals take care of themselves.

Offline Stan-1967

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Re: POLL: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #57 on: 12/31/2017 02:16 AM »
I voted that it will be a success, although I will not be surprised if it fails.  It's just how I see the probabilities.

If they release the hold down clamps, I think that means they have worked out the transients of engine startup,  load paths, & resonance issues.   I think the Merlin engine has proven itself plenty, & do not think the 27 engine beast will fail because of engine count.  Max-Q is where I would put my bets to watch for failure, if it occurs.  Plenty of things that can go wrong with a new design in that regime.

Good luck to SpaceX.  I plan on being at the Cape for that launch.  FH will be my first launch I hope to witness firstand, unless I can somehow make it to the Zuma launch.  Was thinking of watching from Fishlips or Jetty park.   Not sure if Playalinda would be bettter.

Online Lar

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Re: POLL: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #58 on: 12/31/2017 02:53 AM »

Good luck to SpaceX.  I plan on being at the Cape for that launch.  FH will be my first launch I hope to witness firstand, unless I can somehow make it to the Zuma launch.  Was thinking of watching from Fishlips or Jetty park.   Not sure if Playalinda would be bettter.
Playalinda would definitely be better but rumor has it that it will be closed for this launch as it is so close.  The normal entrance to Jetty Park seems to be under construction right now but there is another way in I think. 

(in Canaveral as I type this)
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"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Bynaus

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Re: POLL: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #59 on: 12/31/2017 04:55 AM »
I voted success to orbit. Any failures would most likely come from elements which are different to a normal F9 launch, so as mentioned by others before:

- firing 27 engines at the same time during launch
- new forces during flight, especially max-Q
- at booster separation
- aerodynamics of the nose-capped side-boosters
- very hot re-entry of the center core

Problems at launch can be mitigated against by test firings and hold-down before launch, so I doubt that will be the problem, although this also increases the chance of a pad explosion somewhat (if they can only fire all 27 engines simultaneously at the pad, and this leads to a RUD, then it WILL necessarily be a pad explosion). If there is a problem that shows up during the test firings without leading to a RUD, they can always call off the launch in January and postpone to later that year or so. Forces during flight, I think they have studied this thoroughly (from the special-buildt central core) and seem to be confident in their design - if it fails there, long delays will follow before the next FH launch. Booster separation is a variant on first stage separation of an F9, they are good at that, I think that will go well. I am most skeptical that all three booster returns will go well (especially the side-cores), but that wasn't the question - the upper stage and payload, I think, will make it to orbit.

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