Poll

How many times will SpaceX launch reused/flight proven 1st stage core in 2018?

0
0 (0%)
1
0 (0%)
2
0 (0%)
3
0 (0%)
4
0 (0%)
5
0 (0%)
6
3 (3%)
7
2 (2%)
8
2 (2%)
9
0 (0%)
10
6 (5.9%)
11
7 (6.9%)
12
11 (10.9%)
13
4 (4%)
14
5 (5%)
15
20 (19.8%)
16
7 (6.9%)
17
2 (2%)
18
8 (7.9%)
19
0 (0%)
20
11 (10.9%)
21
1 (1%)
22
3 (3%)
23
2 (2%)
24
2 (2%)
25
2 (2%)
26
1 (1%)
27
2 (2%)
28
0 (0%)
29
0 (0%)
30
0 (0%)
31
0 (0%)
32
0 (0%)
33
0 (0%)
34
0 (0%)
35
0 (0%)
36
0 (0%)
37
0 (0%)
38
0 (0%)
39
0 (0%)
40
0 (0%)
more than 40
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 101

Voting closed: 01/12/2018 10:56 AM

Author Topic: POLL: Number of times SpaceX will launch reused 1st stage core in 2018  (Read 1941 times)

Offline Rebel44

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For the purposes of this poll each re-flight of 1st stage core counts - so remember that cores can be re-flown multiple times (especially Block 5) and that Falcon Heavy can reuse up to 3 core :)

Just as with the number of flights poll, suborbital tests do not count. That is the following things don't count: a launch abort test, a first stage only launch test, a test at Spaceport America if that comes to pass...  the stage has to be one that participated in a mission intended to be orbital.  Whether the mission itself is a success doesn't matter.

Related polls:
Number of SpaceX flights in 2018
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43942.0

Number of SpaceX 1st stage successful landings in 2018
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44407.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2018 that use 1st stage with 2 previous flights
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44430.0
« Last Edit: 12/14/2017 08:07 PM by Rebel44 »

Online AncientU

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21

Because they won't make too many Block 5s until they start getting several reuses out of each one and determine is all's well with the design.  Assume they'll make around 10 and then start accumulating some flight time.  Couple more non-Block cores to fly out.  That doesn't add up to 21, just optimistic as usual.
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
-- SpaceX friend of mlindner

Online Johnnyhinbos

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Per my 2018 prediction post...

My vote was for 22. For Falcon 9 there will be 18 flight proven booster flights (utilizing 10 cores). There will also be two Falcon Heavy flights utilizing two flight proven side cores each. Therefore a total of 22.
John Hanzl. Author, action / adventure www.johnhanzl.com

Offline Craftyatom

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Since SpaceX first launched a re-used core, 1 in every 3 launches has been a re-used core (assuming Iridium-4 goes off as expected before year's end).  I would expect this to jump to almost 50% this year, given that they have quite a backlog of returned boosters (going above 50% for any sustained period will require Block 5's multi-re-use tech, though, which I don't expect to see become commonplace next year).

So, since I guessed 32 launches with 36 cores on the other polls, I'm going to say 16 re-used cores this year, for a 44% share of cores launched.
All aboard the HSF hype train!  Choo Choo!

Offline freddo411

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I guessed a seemingly low 11 reflights, as I expect there will be an incentive to get block 5 boosters flying, resulting in slightly fewer reuse flights in 2018.   It will be a much higher percentage in 2019

Offline Rebel44

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only 10 more days before this poll is closed...

Offline raketa

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Offline deruch

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11.  I would vote higher, but I think they are limited by some unlucky mission timing.  They have to build up a flight history for new build Block 5 cores for commercial crew, Falcon Heavy only launches 2 times this year (total of 2 reused cores launched), and they won't get approval for launches like TESS, GPS, and some CRS launches.  So, while I think they'd like to reuse more the actual missions on the manifest for this year are limiting their options.  Next year there will be a major increase in reuse by percentage of total launches for them.  I predicted 27 launches total (25 F9, 2 FH) for this year.  So, 11 reused cores represents 35.5% of all cores launched.  I think next year they'll be above 65%.
« Last Edit: 01/03/2018 12:58 AM by deruch »
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

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