Author Topic: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2  (Read 79556 times)

Offline Mike Jones

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #20 on: 11/04/2017 01:10 PM »
What will New Armstrong look like ?
Is it supposed to use the same BE-4, BE-4U and BE-3U engines than New Glenn ? 

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #21 on: 11/04/2017 01:15 PM »
What will New Armstrong look like ?
Is it supposed to use the same BE-4, BE-4U and BE-3U engines than New Glenn ?

No one outside Blue Origin knows. Thread for NA here.

Offline mme

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #22 on: 11/04/2017 04:27 PM »
Impressive if that is the case ... 2 bn$ invested by Jeff Bezos in Blue Origin in 2017 alone !  That should bring a strong momentum to their major development programmes : New Shepard and New Glenn. Maybe Blue Moon lander as well ?
According to Crunchbase, SpaceX has only raised 1,5bn$ in equity in total (mainly in 2015 and 2017 to be fair).
https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/space-exploration-technologies
Or something spooked Bezos and he suddenly thinks New Glenn will not be enough?

Maybe they skip the reusable second stage for NG and go straight for NA.
I seriously doubt it. He has no reason to rush. He was no reason to be profitable by some deadline. The money is probably for all the infrastructure NG will need.  Launch pad, Control Center, fancy landing ship with Champagne fountains, etc.
Space is not Highlander.  There can, and will, be more than one.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #23 on: 11/05/2017 12:26 AM »
Considering how much capital Blue Origin required just to get New Shepard to work, it's not surprising New Glenn is going to require a lot more given the way Blue Origin operates.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Mike Jones

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #24 on: 11/05/2017 01:31 PM »
Why should they be incentivized to be cost efficient ? They will have Jeff ‘Sugar Daddy’ Bezos (at least for the next few years) to compensate any development overcosts and to pay the difference between their initial ultra low prices on New Glenn and the real cost of building such a giant orbital vehicle.

Offline Lar

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #25 on: 11/05/2017 01:38 PM »
Fat budgets are not good from a project management perspective. Better to run lean.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline DJPledger

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #26 on: 11/05/2017 01:59 PM »
Fat budgets are not good from a project management perspective. Better to run lean.
JB's fat budget can be used to dev. NA as soon as possible.
« Last Edit: 11/05/2017 01:59 PM by DJPledger »

Offline Lar

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #27 on: 11/05/2017 02:09 PM »
Fat budgets are not good from a project management perspective. Better to run lean.
JB's fat budget can be used to dev. NA as soon as possible.

Can be. No evidence to support *is*, though.  lots of gradatim. (VERY gradual) Lots of ferociter (directed as snark at the achievements of others) ... not a lot of launch...
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline AlexP

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #28 on: 11/05/2017 02:18 PM »
Can be. No evidence to support *is*, though.  lots of gradatim. (VERY gradual) Lots of ferociter (directed as snark at the achievements of others) ... not a lot of launch...
They also have a pretty large rocket factory under construction, and a pretty large american made SC engine on the test stand.

I realise we've gotten pretty spoiled with the amazing things SpaceX have achieved, but if you imagine they'd never existed and Blue were here, proposing a reusable first stage the size of New Glenn within a few years, people would be cutting them a hell of a lot more slack.

Second place is just the first loser, I guess. Maybe they invite that on themselves by not being nice and friendly looking, I don't know.

Online AncientU

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #29 on: 11/05/2017 03:33 PM »
Fat budgets are not good from a project management perspective. Better to run lean.
JB's fat budget can be used to dev. NA as soon as possible.

Can be. No evidence to support *is*, though.  lots of gradatim. (VERY gradual) Lots of ferociter (directed as snark at the achievements of others) ... not a lot of launch...

Blue has taken on a big challenge -- several of them in fact -- so should be to their credit.  Results after 15 years are good okay but not remotely disruptive.  Best to show the World the advantage(s) of their approach before claiming its superiority (or validity). 

Launching an orbital rocket is the ante to sit at this table.  Spectators should keep mouths shut.
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
-- SpaceX friend of mlindner

Offline Lar

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #30 on: 11/05/2017 03:35 PM »
I am reminded of that ad with half a microphone and half a rocket. (the company that ran it is now mostly talk, so that's some irony I think)...
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline dror

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #31 on: 11/05/2017 03:54 PM »
Why should they be incentivized to be cost efficient ? They will have Jeff ‘Sugar Daddy’ Bezos (at least for the next few years) to compensate any development overcosts and to pay the difference between their initial ultra low prices on New Glenn and the real cost of building such a giant orbital vehicle.
Any evidence of overcosts or info about their prices? or is this just handwaving (like the rest of this thread)?
"If we crave some cosmic purpose, then let us find ourselves a worthy goal. "
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Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #32 on: 11/05/2017 04:06 PM »
I liked the secretive Blue that only said something when they had operational HW to show off.  Now there is lot of hype but very little new operational HW. A NS flight or two would be nice, was expecting lots this year especially after Blues hype and NS flight history.

Offline su27k

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #33 on: 11/06/2017 01:51 AM »
Any evidence of overcosts or info about their prices? or is this just handwaving (like the rest of this thread)?

Yeah, there seems to be a lot of handwaving in this thread. We don't know how much of Bezos' money was invested into Blue Origin or what are the timelines, I don't think we have enough evidence to say Blue has a fat budget or is particularly slow even comparing to SpaceX. At least in terms of BE-4 their timeline is ok, not super fast but not super slow either.

But at the risk of repeating myself, I do find it unfortunate that Bezos chose "Gradatim Ferociter" as mantra of Blue (I would choose something like "Getting of this rock asap"). It's perplexing that Bezos is not pushing Blue as hard as he can even if he only views this as a hobby, surely he wants to see some great things accomplished here, and he's not young anymore, he really doesn't have time to wait for "Gradatim Ferociter"...

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #34 on: 11/06/2017 01:57 AM »
A little tiny part of me (the part I've yet to trap in a dark corner and smother with a pillow) still thinks that maybe sometime in the mid-2020s, maybe the mid-2030s, Blue Origin will stop getting ready to change the space industry and actually change the space industry.

I have hope.

Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #35 on: 11/06/2017 02:15 AM »
A little tiny part of me (the part I've yet to trap in a dark corner and smother with a pillow) still thinks that maybe sometime in the mid-2020s, maybe the mid-2030s, Blue Origin will stop getting ready to change the space industry and actually change the space industry.

I have hope.
I feel like they're just a backup to SpaceX at this point. Which is good, as Musk is almost reckless in his doubling-down of bets when he gets a whiff of success.

No one else is even on the field when it comes to developing an affordable space launch solution, so I'm glad Blue Origin is around.

I kind of doubt Blue would have a huge New Glenn factory being built right now if it weren't for SpaceX. It was always in Blue's plans, sure, but SpaceX has forced them to expedite things, IMHO.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #36 on: 11/06/2017 05:37 AM »
Uhh.. thanks for you concern but we're as aware how much Bezos has poured into Blue Origin as anyone else is. I prefer to think of it terms of multiples of $100M (by which it's 5 up to 2014 and something like 5 since then). Why $100M? Because that's the grand total that Elon put into SpaceX and having a restricted budget like that really shows... they had to go out and find these things called "customers" and do these things called "launches".
Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Offline sanman

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #37 on: 11/06/2017 06:23 AM »
Maybe Bezos is selling more stock because it's gone up so much in recent times. Blue Origin can then benefit more from his windfall. But I think Bezos should start selling those New Shepard vehicles to 3rd-party operators ASAP in order to reap the revenues of that, after some minimal trial-effort in proving the reliability/performance of the vehicle.

Firstly, having multiple 3rd-party operators would improve the space tourism market more quickly than having just the one Blue Origin company operating them. Let Bezos become more Musk-like and nimble with the times, and change course to allow Virgin or somebody else who's more tourist-oriented take care of the suborbital tourism business, which is merely a stepping-stone or speed-bump along Blue's greater path.

Nextly, this would provide revenue that Blue can pump into their real goal of reusable orbital rockets as the enablers for a space-based economy, so that this can be achieved more quickly. It's great that Bezos has loads of cash, but monetizing New Shepard by cashing out from it early could help facilitate the climb to orbit, where the better markets are. Why over-indulge on the appetizer when the main course is more filling?

Once Blue Origin has a more viable satellite-launching business, then Bezos might not have to sell as much stock, or at least if he does, he'll be able to spend it on further development that will take Blue's capabilities to even greater levels even faster.

Offline daveklingler

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #38 on: 11/06/2017 06:36 AM »
I kind of doubt Blue would have a huge New Glenn factory being built right now if it weren't for SpaceX. It was always in Blue's plans, sure, but SpaceX has forced them to expedite things, IMHO.

I really can't point to any evidence that Blue would go at a different pace if SpaceX didn't exist.  To anyone who plays serious chess, Blue Origin's schedule doesn't really stand out as slow. 

Admittedly, they can't move fast enough to suit my personal taste, but I'd like to see O'Neill space colonies before 2020.  That's probably not realistic.

Offline Svetoslav

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #39 on: 11/06/2017 02:20 PM »
Meh. If John Carmack hadn't pulled the plug Armadillo Aerospace probably would have cleared 100 km, fully reusable, back in 2014... for less than $10 million spent. It's nice that Blue Origin has flown anything but it's not a billion dollar achievement.
I kind of think that Bezos is building things on his own terms, not what a bunch of people on the internet think. I really don't get why people have to get on BO's case all the time when it comes to their timescales.


Bezos did state that he expected manned flights in 2017. Earlier it was also said to expect New Shepart flights to resume in late summer or early fall.
It's mid fall now.

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