Author Topic: Predictions for 2022  (Read 7311 times)

Offline freddo411

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #40 on: 11/08/2017 09:08 PM »
Vulcan was cancelled in 2018. The math came in and there was no market for it. ULA continues to fly the Atlas which is allowed to not let SpaceX get a monopoly. It will be retired in a couple of years when New Glenn becomes operational.

I will elaborate that this will happen because ULA and Blue Origin will effectively be the same entity by 2022. Either one buys the other or an umbrella company is created. Either way, Bezos will be in control. The merger has been postponed thus far because they want to get two DOD contracts to develop both Vulcan and the New Glenn. New Glenn contract will go towards developing New Glenn and Vulcan contract will be used to develop the BE-4.

That is an interesting claim.  I can certainly see the logic of a BO + ULA marriage.   

Do you have an hard information on this, or is this speculation / reading between the lines?

Offline DreamyPickle

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #41 on: 11/08/2017 11:16 PM »
* SpaceX is at 40 launches/year, about 15 of them for starlink.
* No more expendables, everything above 5tons to GTO bumped to Heavy.
* F9 first stage production halted.
* BFS prototype flies suborbital but fails. Elon announces design changes.
* BFR gets shrunk further.
* First BFR flight is scheduled to contain only starlink sats.

* Boeing/LM decide Vulcan can't compete with Falcon at historical profit margins and sell ULA to Blue Origin.
* Vulcan becomes Blue Origin's "medium" launcher.
* New Glenn flies a few times with methane upper stage, mostly LEO sats from Starlink competitors.
* Blue Origin announces investment into reusable/refuelable hydrolox upper stage for New Glenn.
* New stage can land with wings on a profile oddly similar to BFS. Separate "deep-space" version lacks wings but can loiter for months.
* RL10 is replaced by BE3 and Aerojet goes bankrupt. Northrop-Grumman buys remaining assets.

* SLS EM-1 slips into 2020 and fails, president Warren kills it.
* Europa Clipper is planned to fly on the very last Delta IV Heavy.
* DSG is replaced by a lunar base collaboration using existing heavy launchers.
* DSG PPE morphs into a LEO-to-LLO tug.

* Bigelow starts a successful space tourism business.
* Plans to deploy extra module once every year.
* Lockheed Martin/NASA agreement to privatize Orion.
* Boeing and LM both fly capsule to the Bigelow station on Blue Origin launchers.

* Ariane 6 flies alongside the last few Ariane 5.
* Ariane 7 in heavy development. Looks like a methane Falcon with a stretched hydrolox upper stage.

* Worsening relations after 2020 results in the ISS Russian section being sealed off and detached.
* China announces Tiangong-4 will attach to OPSEK.
* Russia and China announce a different lunar base.
* Outer space treaty in question among calls to draw borders on Shackleton crater.
« Last Edit: 11/08/2017 11:41 PM by DreamyPickle »

Offline testguy

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #42 on: 11/09/2017 12:58 AM »
Aerojet goes bankrupt?  Even if AR-1, RL-10, RS-68 and RS-25 all were closed out, I don’t see bankrupcy in the cards.  Aerojet is so much more than large liquid engines.  The defense sector is very large including many of the tactical rockets used by the military, there are billions of dollars in real estate assets, air breathing propulsion systems and stratigic solid motors to mention a few other areas of the corporation.

Offline the_other_Doug

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #43 on: 11/09/2017 01:01 AM »
The Nuclear Exchange of 2018 will end space launches for the remainder of the century, at least.  Since the Nuclear Winter has yet to show any signs of relenting, it's difficult to say whether or not there will be a human race to be launching rockets by then, either...
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Online saliva_sweet

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #44 on: 11/09/2017 08:12 AM »
That is an interesting claim.  I can certainly see the logic of a BO + ULA marriage.   

Do you have an hard information on this, or is this speculation / reading between the lines?

Just the crystal ball and tealeaves as appropriate for this thread. I just don't think BO pursuing DOD cert for New Glenn was a backstab to ULA. I suspect they're all in on this and the deal is basically done between Bezos, Boeing and LM.

Offline testguy

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #45 on: 11/09/2017 01:32 PM »
The Nuclear Exchange of 2018 will end space launches for the remainder of the century, at least.  Since the Nuclear Winter has yet to show any signs of relenting, it's difficult to say whether or not there will be a human race to be launching rockets by then, either...

Really dark humor.  Really not funny at all.

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #46 on: 11/09/2017 02:02 PM »

* National Space Propulsion Test Facility at Westcott complete and in full operation. Neighbours complain about the noise.
(emphasis mine) ... wow, you REALLY went out on a limb there.... no one EVER complains about noise. LOL

Also, while a prediction of a nuclear exchange doesn't quite fit the rest of the format, it's legit (note that no discussion of WHO or WHY would be in bounds)... if quite morbid.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline floss

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #47 on: 11/09/2017 08:30 PM »
Massive increase in the price of falcon rocket following the failure of four falcons because build quality slipped owning to exhausted workers making errors.Manned flights underway.

Falcon heavy succeeds on its third launch after two failures.

Antaries rocket flying .
Atlas rocket transferring people to the ISS.

Vulcan rocket first launch.

SLS nearing launch .

Cots 2 announced to supply the deep space station .

ISS gets funding for six new modules two habitat ,one docking module ,a centrifuge research module , a power module with 300 kilwatts of power docked to Zvezda and a drive research module docked to the power module .

Ban on all far east rocket launches following a north Korean rocket falling on Japan.

Angara rocket a failure after cost overruns .
 
Moonbase treaty just signed 8 landings per year 4 crew .

Japan working on the lunar personnel ferry.
China working on the heavy lunar cargo lander .

Shenzou spacecraft launched from Kourou  on Soyuz.

Ariane 5 winding down.
Ariane 6 flying .

Vega further upgrades funded. p140 stage under testing.


« Last Edit: 11/09/2017 08:31 PM by floss »

Offline tdperk

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #48 on: 11/10/2017 01:51 PM »
SLS is mothballed.  ULA gets a 1bn$/year contract to maintain the vehicle and production facilities in readiness.

Offline Elvis in Space

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #49 on: 11/10/2017 11:53 PM »
Looking back five years and trying to draw some lessons from that - Who knows?  ::) I guess all you can do is look at the trends -

China continues to expand their efforts.

Russian efforts continue to diminish having lost all commercial payload business to global competition.

Spacex is launching something at several times their current rate. BFR is a happening thing that doesn't take as long to reach fruition as FH but still not as soon as Elon wants. Spacex has flown passengers around the moon and landed robots on Mars.

Blue Origin is launching things both orbital and sub-orbital.

ISS is still doing it's thing with most crew transport being commercial.

NASA/SLS has flown once and been dropped.

ESA is still having a difficult time making decisions.

Most everybody else is still prognosticating unfunded wonders just a few years away.

« Last Edit: 11/10/2017 11:57 PM by Elvis in Space »
Cheeseburgers on Mars!

Offline ZachS09

Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #50 on: 11/11/2017 03:52 AM »
Here are my ten predictions for what will happen by 2022:

1: SpaceX and Blue Origin are launching their reusable rockets (Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, New Glenn) to somewhat dominate the commercial market, leaving United Launch Alliance and Arianespace with barely a chance.

2: Russia eventually launches the Nauka MLM module to the ISS by December 2018.

3: NASA's Space Launch System & Orion spacecraft will be flying; albeit only missions to the Moon and beyond. There will be a one flight per year cadence.

4: China's Long March 2, 3, and 4 launch vehicles will be completely retired; Long March 5, 6, 7, and eventually 8 will take over for the eventual construction of the Chinese Modular Space Station and future lunar orbiters & sample return probes. That goes for manned spaceflights and satellite launches, too.

5: Arianespace's Vega rocket, along with the C and E variants, will keep up its 100% success rate. The Ariane 6 could suffer a failure or partial failure on one of its early flights.

6: The European Space Agency commits to their lunar village project and starts developing the proper equipment and fuel depots.

7: United Launch Alliance's Atlas V will suffer an early ascent failure, resulting in the loss of vehicle and payload, and causing a setback of one to two years. Delta IV Heavy, however, is unaffected due to its success rate.

8: The International Space Station team plans to decommission the station by 2024 by using a Progress spacecraft to deorbit the entire thing while it is unmanned. Its Earth-orbiting replacement will be Bigelow Aerospace's B330 module.

9: ISRO retires the PSLV and GSLV and keeps the GSLV Mk.3 in service, which will launch all interplanetary probes and Earth-orbiting satellites. The eventual replacement, Unified Launch Vehicle, begins simultaneous development.

10: One of the ISS crew ferries atop a Soyuz-2.1a goes through an early abort due to a problem in either the first or second stage engines. Luckily, all three members are alive upon touchdown.
« Last Edit: 11/11/2017 03:56 AM by ZachS09 »
"Liftoff of Falcon 9: the world's first reflight of an orbital-class rocket."

Offline Bubbinski

Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #51 on: 11/11/2017 07:26 AM »
I don’t know if I’d call myself one of the “cool kids” but here’s my take:

- by 2022 I think civilization will have had a “near-death experience” caused by a major war. This will affect spaceflight in a number of ways (certain orbits unusable due to debris from destroyed satellites, economies needing to rebuild causing lower space budgets, new technologies being developed and used, irradiated areas and changed climates needing more intensive study from satellites, etc.).

- Every major surviving launch provider worldwide (private or government) will have some form of reusability (partial or total) in their current or planned launchers to reduce costs. SpaceX won’t have the entire field to itself as Blue Origin, ULA, others foreign and domestic step up their games. BFR will have flown at least one test flight, Falcon 9/Heavy and New Glenn will compete, Vulcan will be flying with US engines and some reuse of engines, Orbital NGLV will be flying (and will feature some degree of reuse in a later version), SLS will have flown but the number of future SLS missions will be capped due to budget constraints and BFR will eventually be the heavy lifter of choice for NASA missions down the line. Surviving non-US space agencies and providers will put reusability features in Ariane 6, H-II/III, Long March, Soyuz, etc.

- Europa Clipper will be in an advanced state of launch prep for flight on the 2nd SLS mission, JWST will have made stunning breakthrough discoveries related to exoplanets and cosmology, all textbooks will need to be rewritten. Microbial life (past life at any rate, maybe current life) will have been discovered elsewhere in the solar system and we will know Earth was not alone in harboring life. (Mars rovers Curiosity, Opportunity, ExoMars, Mars 2020 will feature prominently). We will be VERY hot on the trail of Earth’s twin with promising leads. Hubble will still be going, though in need of a repair mission which will eventually come. These space missions and discoveries will keep humanity hoping and dreaming during a very dark time worldwide.

- Human spaceflight will continue though not fare as well in the rebuilding world. US commercial crew will be a going concern but will need a new destination as ISS suffers damage and has its lifespan shortened. New commercial mini stations will have started flying by late 2022 and the commercial crew craft, besides supplying these stations and perhaps standalone crewed flights, are modified to fly deep space missions, borrowing some tech from Orion. Orion flies EM-1 but is cancelled and parts of it are repurposed for the Deep Space Hab which hasn’t flown yet but metal is being cut for its components. SpaceX has to delay its Mars plans for a few years but will still be working on them. A few suborbital tourism trips will have flown, though widespread regular flights will have to wait until economic and societal recovery is more advanced. At least one Moon flyby with crew will be in advanced preparation though not yet ready to go.

- Another Chelyabinsk incident (with fatalities) will revive all kinds of asteroid detection and deflection plans and a new asteroid deflection and mining demonstration mission will be funded by a billionaire and near the launch pad. New telescope technology will start to come on line and help discover more and more small solar system objects. Planet 9 will also have been confirmed. Asteroid and comet resource extraction will be on the verge of becoming important but not ready for prime time at the end of 2022.

- finally, I will have survived though not without loss, and I will still be enjoying NSF and thinking about what spaceflight would look like in 2027. I will still have more spacecraft and rocket kits than I can ever display, and I will still be planning launch trips, though maybe not by myself if the right one comes along.
« Last Edit: 11/11/2017 07:30 AM by Bubbinski »
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Offline Mr. Scott

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #52 on: 11/11/2017 03:39 PM »
I don’t know if I’d call myself one of the “cool kids” but here’s my take:

...

- Another Chelyabinsk incident (with fatalities) will revive all kinds of asteroid detection and deflection plans and a new asteroid deflection and mining demonstration mission will be funded by a billionaire and near the launch pad. New telescope technology will start to come on line and help discover more and more small solar system objects. Planet 9 will also have been confirmed. Asteroid and comet resource extraction will be on the verge of becoming important but not ready for prime time at the end of 2022.

...

Wow.  Based on this, I'm having very plausible thoughts that Neil DeGrasse Tyson could be the next NASA Administrator (by 2022).  Perhaps he will be brought in thru the NASA doors as the Deputy Administrator?  Wow Wow Wow!

Billionaire funded asteroid deflection?  I have no words.  This is a transformative concept.

Great prediction!
« Last Edit: 11/11/2017 03:47 PM by Mr. Scott »

Offline tdperk

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #53 on: 11/12/2017 02:16 PM »
8: The International Space Station team plans to decommission the station by 2024 by using a Progress spacecraft to deorbit the entire thing while it is unmanned. Its Earth-orbiting replacement will be Bigelow Aerospace's B330 module.

I think it is more likely it will be boosted to a caretaking orbit as a museum in waiting.

Offline Andrew9141

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #54 on: 11/14/2017 02:38 PM »
In 2022:
NASA's SLS has been modified slightly from its original plan and has completed its very first test flight this year.
SpaceX will be the largest commercial space company with ever growing cooperation with NASA
SpaceX's ITS/BFR or whatever it will be named is nearing completion but still hasn't completed a test flight.
The Mars mission is being pushed back another 5 years but excitement for going is stronger than ever.
The Falcon heavy is has already been decommissioned.
Any rocket company that wants to be competitive must be able to reuse their rockets. (This means you too NASA)
Internet coming from satellites will either be a huge success or a topic not even discussed any more.
Great strides will be made in Artificial Intelligence and Automation. (Self driving cars are finally a norm for the most part, increased automation in manufacturing processes and improved automation in rocket launches/trajectories etc..)
 

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #55 on: 11/14/2017 11:01 PM »
Welcome Andrew9141

Why would SpaceX decommission the FH before BFR is launching payloads? it means giving up on a certain segment of the market.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

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