Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2018?

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More than 40!!!
None (sometimes option 42 is the right answer, but this is not one of those times)

Voting closes: 01/19/2018 12:22 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018  (Read 7594 times)

Offline Lar

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POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« on: 10/09/2017 08:39 PM »
Number of SpaceX orbital flight attempts in 2018

 Back by popular demand! (well, one guy asked me for it)... it's your chance to give us your best guess on how many orbital flight attempts SpaceX will have next year. Please read this post carefully, all the way to the bottom. The rules have been clarified (I used more colors, that's gotta help) and simplified (not really) and we have even more historical data for you to pore over than before. We had over 319 (320 is over 319) voters last year and there wasn't even a prize! Sadly, no prize this year either. But you want to vote anyway.

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2018:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44407.0

Some other fun polls (not by me):
Number of launches with a reused stage
Number of stages launched 3 times or more


Prior Results

Number of SpaceX flights in 2017 poll thread (actual total: 16 and 2 pending as of this writing)
      3 Dragons: CRS-10, 11,12 and one pending... CRS-13 (pending)
      13 non Dragon: Iridium-1 (1-10), EchoStar-23, SES-10, NROL-76, Inmarsat-5, BulgariaSat-1, Iridium-2 (11-20), Intelsat 35e, FORMOSAT-5, OTV-5 (X-37B), SES-11 / EchoStar 105, Iridium-3 (21-30) Koreasat 5A )
      1 non Dragon pending as of this writing: Iridium-4 (31-40)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.0

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2017:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41825.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2016 poll thread (actual total: 8,
      2 Dragons: CRS-8, and CRS 9
      6 non Dragon: Jason-3, SES-9, JCSAT-14, Thaicom 8, Eutelsat 117 West B/ABS-2A, JCSAT-16
      1 non Dragon pad anomaly: AMOS-6 )
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39071.0

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2016: (actual total: 5 successes of 8 tries)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39219.0


Number of SpaceX flights in 2015 poll thread (actual total: 7,
        3 Dragons: CRS-5, CRS-6, and CRS-7 (failed),
        3 non Dragon: DSCOVR, ABS-3A/Eutelsat 115 West B, TurkmenAlem52E/MonacoSAT )
        PLUS ORBCOMM-2 RTF which happened after the 2016 poll started and featured the first successful first stage landing.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36377.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2014 poll thread (actual total: 6, 2 Dragons: CRS-3, and CRS-4)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33571.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2013 poll thread (actual total: 3, 1 Dragon: CRS-2)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30684.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2012 poll thread (actual total: 2, 2 Dragons: C2+ and CRS-1)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=27858.0


References

Totals: F9  from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_launches#Launch_history_and_manifest
           Dragon from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragon_(spacecraft)#List_of_Dragon_missions
Salo's US Flight Schedule
   http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.0

gongora's manifest thread: (note, this periodically changes threads because it grows so rapidly, this is as of Dec '17):
   http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.0
Here's an "archival copy" of the manifest as it was at the end of 2017
   http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1763346#msg1763346

SpaceX launch log:
   http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40544.msg1550541#msg1550541

SpaceX Official Flight Manifest
http://www.spacex.com/launch_manifest.php

Anik's Schedule of ISS flight events
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=61.0

NASA's Consolidated Launch Schedule
http://www.nasa.gov/missions/highlights/schedule.html


Current 2017 SpaceX Flights Scheduled

(According to gongora's manifest thread with modification, and my editorial comments, and I won't update it post 1 Jan... if I bobbled something let me know... I decided to switch to this thread as it is SpaceX specific. Salo's thread requires a lot of removals which I usually bobble somehow)


       Local        LV  Core   Ret- .                             .    Mass   .     Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTC.   S/N    urn  Payload(s)                    Orb  (kg)   Site sion
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  ----- ----
2018-01-04  2000/-5F91043LNorthrop Grumman-ZumaLEO?C-40.
2018-early (NET)H.LLSFalcon Heavy Demo Flight..C-39A(50)
2018-01-30  1623/-5F9.SGovSat-1 (SES-16)GTO4000C.
2018-01-30F9..PAZ & (Microsat 2a/2b?)SSO1400V-4E.
2018-H1F9.XHispasat 1F (30W-6)GTO6092C.
2018-03F9RLCRS SpX-14LEO~10kC.
2018-03F9N.BangabandhuGTO~3500C.
2018-Q1F9R?Iridium NEXT (Flight 5)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-Q1F9.SSES-12GTO5300C.
2018-03-18F9N.NASA (TESS)HEO325C .
2018-03-21  1843/-7F9N.Iridium NEXT 6/GRACE-FOPLR~6kV-4E.
2018-04F9.?CCtCap DM1LEO.C-39A.
2018-Q2F9.?Telstar 18 Vantage/Apstar-5CGTO>5400C.
2018-Q2F9.?Telstar 19 VantageGTO>5400C.
2018-04F9..Spaceflight SSO-A (575km)SSO.V-4E.
2018-05 (NET)F9..USAF GPS III-1MEO3880C.
2018-midH.LLSSTP-2 (US Air Force)MEO~8k?C-39A.
2018-Q2F9..Iridium NEXT (Flight 7)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-06F9.LCRS SpX-15LEO~10kC.
2018-06F9..Iridium NEXT (Flight 8)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-06F9.?SAOCOM 1ASSO2800V-4E.
2018-H1F9.SEs'hail 2GTO~3kC.
2018-midF9..CCiCap In-Flight Abort TestSUB.CN/A
2018H..Arabsat 6AGTO~6kC-39A.
2018F9.?PSN-6 and co-passengerGTO5000C.
2018-08F9..Telkom 4GTO.C.
2018-08F9.LCRS SpX-16LEO~10kC.
2018-08F9..CCtCap DM2 (Crew)LEO.C-39A.
2018-Q3F9..RADARSAT ConstellationSSO~4.5kV-4E.
2018F9..OHB SARah 1SSO~2200V-4E.
2018-10F9.LCRS SpX-17LEO~10kC.
2018-Q4 (NET)F9..Spaceflight GTO (200x60k/km)GTO.C(70)
2018-12F9.LCRS SpX-18LEO~10kC.
Companies that appear to have contracts for unspecified payloads: Eutelsat, Inmarsat (x2?), Bigelow

Date: *=Local date differs from UTC date
Return: L=Land,S=Sea,X=Expendable,N/A=Not Applicable
Launch Vehicle: F9=Falcon 9, H=Falcon Heavy, F=Falcon 9 or Heavy
Core: FH core numbers in footnotes, N=New, R=Reused
Colors: Successful / Unsuccessful / Mars!!!! / Footnotes

NOTES:
(50) FH Demo - Serial Numbers: Center:1033  Side1:1023.2  Side2: 1025.2
(70) Spaceflight Industries : Upcoming Spaceflight Ind. schedule update
 
(any transcription errors from abridging this are mine, frefer to the original post here:
SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5 header )



(Last year's list as of the time of the poll, for reference

NET December 16, 2016 early January - Iridium Next Flight 1 (x10), MicroSat-1a, MicroSat-1b - Falcon 9-030 - Vandenberg SLC-4E - 20:36
NET January 8 - Echostar 23 - Falcon 9-031 -  Kennedy LC-39A
NET January 22 - Dragon SpX-10 (CRS-10), SAGE-III, SAGE NVP, STP-H5/ISEM - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A (or spring)
NET February - SES-10 - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A
March - NROL-76 - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A
NET March - Dragon SpX-11 (CRS-11), ROSA, MUSES, NICER - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A
NET 1st quarter - Iridium Next Flight 2 (x10), MicroSat 1c, MicroSat 1d (or MicroSat 1a, MicroSat 1b) - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
NET 1st quarter - KoreaSat 5A/Mugungwha 5A - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A
NET 1st half quarter- Inmarsat 5 F4 - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A/Canaveral SLC-40
1st half - SES-11 (EchoStar 105) - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (TBD)
1st half (TBD) - BulgariaSat 1 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (TBD)
NET 2nd quarter - Intelsat 35e - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (TBD)
NET 2nd quarter - Iridium Next Flight 3 (x10) - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
June 1 - Dragon SpX-12 (CRS-12), CREAM - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A 
midyear - Demo Flight (dummy payload, ballast) - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A
August - Dragon v2 (unmanned test) (SpX-DM1)- Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A (or 2018)
September 13 - Dragon SpX-13 (CRS-13), ASIM, TSIS, MISSE-FF - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A
3rd quarter - SES-16/GovSat-1 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40
3rd quarter - Esíhail 2 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40
3rd quarter - STP-02: DSX, COSMIC-2A (equatorial): FORMOSAT 7A/7B/7C/7D/7E/7F, GPIM, OTB 1, FalconSat 6, NPSat 1, Oculus-ASR, Prox 1, LightSail B, ARMADILLO, FalconSat 7, TBEx A, TBEx B, Prometheus 2-1, Prometheus 2-2, Prometheus 2-3, Prometheus 2-4, Prometheus 2-5, Prometheus 2-6, Prometheus 2-7, Prometheus 2-8, PSat 2, BRICSat 1, BRICSat 2, TEPCE 1, TEPCE 2, CP 9 (LEO), StangSat, DOTSI, CNGB, Ballast - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A
NET 3rd quarter - Iridium Next Flight 4 (x10) - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
2nd half - SES-14 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or 4th quarter)
NET 2nd half - Europasat (HellasSat-3) - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A (or Proton Ariane 5)
4th quarter -  ORS-6 (COWVR, WSGF), "2017 Sun Synch Express"/SHERPA: SpaceIL lunar lander, Eu:CROPIS, ICEYE-1 (TBC), BlackSky Global 1, BlackSky Global 2, BlackSky Global 3, BlackSky Global 4, STPSat-5,  SkySat (xTBD) + over 13 sats - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
NET 4th quarter - Iridium Next Flight 5 (x10) - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
October - SAOCOM-1A - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E 
late November - Early December - Hispasat 30W-6 (1F) Amazonas-5 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40  (or 2018)
November - Dragon v2 (manned test) (SpX-DM2) - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A (or 2018)
December 16 - Bangabandhu-1 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET December 20 - TESS (Astro EX-1) - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or January 2018)
December - GRACE-FO 1, GRACE-FO 2, Iridium Next (x5) - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E (or January NLT February 2018)
TBD - FORMOSAT 5, SHERPA SSO: eXCITe (PTB 1), Blacksky Global Pathfinder 2, Flock-2c (x56), Lemur-2 (x8), Corvus-BC 3, ICE-Cap, PropCube 2, Arkyd-6A, CNUSail 1, KAUSAT 5, SIGMA (KHUSAT 3), CANYVAL-X 1, CANYVAL-X 2, STEP Cube Lab, EcAMSat, ISARA, OCSD B, OCSD C, Fox 1C, Fox 1D, Nayif 1, skCUBE, ITASAT 1, Aalto 1, DIDO 1, 3Cat 1, LMPC (AeroCube 9), ROBUSTA 1B, SUCHAI - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
TBD - PSN-6, U.S. government satellite - Falcon 9 - TBD



Poll Rules
- Poll closes same time as last year, around Jan 19.
- This allows time for those out of town during the holidays
- This also prevents the thread from going on so long to make the poll unfair to early voters.
- Early voters don't know if certain launches happen or don't... take that into account when voting.
- No do-overs... I can't change anyone's vote without closing and reopening, and it wouldn't be fair anyway
- No late votes... I am not reopening the poll because you forgot. You can still post a rationale if you want.
- Please PM me with any questions/comments/concerns.  I've done what I can to make this orderly.
- UTC time is considered for any launches on Dec 31st (of either 2015 or 2016). T-0 time determines what year the launch was in.

Guidelines for "Number of Launches" thread/poll
A "launch" in this case means:
- The liftoff of a launch vehicle from the pad, with a mission that includes the objectives of second stage cutoff and delivering a payload to orbit.  (this includes earth orbits and direct injection to other orbits such as solar, etc. It also, to forestall nitpicking, includes hyperbolic trajectories... what it doesn't include is any trajectory that (is intended to) return to earth without having performed at least one complete orbit of Earth)
- The launch does not have to "succeed".. if the engines fire with intent to launch, that's enough, unless the vehicle does not move at all, and survives so another attempt can be tried
- This includes any CRS Dragon missions, Comsats, mass simulators, interplanetary missions, etc
- Scrubs and static fires do not count.
- Suborbital tests and missions DO NOT count.
- Suborbital core returns, should any happen, also DO NOT count (inasmuch as they are part of some other mission, and there is a separate poll for core returns)
- Launch abort tests also DO NOT count.
- Any confusion on this, please send me a PM before posting.
- There might be a few tiny edge cases that still don't clearly bin to "launch" or "not launch" ... in that case I will, in my Imperial Magisty, make the call.

Practical Examples
- CRS-7 COUNTED.
- Amos-6 DID NOT COUNT.
- An FH launch WILL COUNT as one launch, not three, obviously.
- Grasshopper and F9R-suborbital tests DID NOT COUNT.
- Equivalent ITS suborbital tests WILL NOT COUNT.
- The Dragon Pad Abort Test (May 6, 2015) DID NOT COUNT.
- The Dragon In-Flight Abort Test WILL NOT COUNT.
- However, a failed commercial crew launch that results in a Dragon abort WILL COUNT if the launch otherwise counts (see CRS-7 vs AMOS-6.)



Rationale for "Number of Launches" thread
The original purpose of this thread was to get an intelligent discussion going on the number of launches that would actually take place.  At the beginning of 2012 and 2013, it was pretty unclear how many launches would take place those respective years. This was even true somewhat for 2014... as the 2014 poll makes clear. But collectively we did not do too bad...  On 2015 SpaceX was tracking to make something fairly close to our consensus until CRS-7 set them back... Again, in 2016, SpaceX was tracking to make pretty close to our consensus until AMOS-6 set them back... SpaceX has aggressive plans for 2017 too.

NOTE: We're interested in your rationale, but not in "should I vote yet" and not in "this poll is flawed because..."... those posts might just get trimmed.. Not going to limit it to one post per person at this time, but if there is too much trivial back and forth we might.
« Last Edit: 12/23/2017 02:13 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #1 on: 12/13/2017 07:32 AM »
I have a lot of editing to do on the starter post (a lot of stuff is from last year still) but I'm overdue to launch this poll... so if you want to wait a bit for me to get more stuff in, (like this year's manifest, the results from last year etc) hold off on voting but if you want to tell all your friends you were a first voter, go for it....

(I voted 30, ever the optimist...)

Edit: Most first post editing now done, PM me if you spot anything wrong. Big change is I switched from reproducing an abridgement of Salo's log to reproducing an abridgement of gongora's manifest thread...

I am quite surprised at the early results. The lowest number is... shocking. (you'll have to vote to see what it is).. suggests high confidence in SpaceX ability.
« Last Edit: 12/14/2017 12:21 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline PerW

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #2 on: 12/13/2017 07:38 AM »
24, two per month that would be great. 30 as Elon said would be even better.
But Heavy and crewed  will be nice to see in 2018, fingers crossed.

Voted 13 for 2017, so glad to be proven wrong :-)

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #3 on: 12/13/2017 07:40 AM »
Voted for 28, a little under what they expect from next year since a delay or two could always push a few payloads to the year after.

Offline hopalong

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #4 on: 12/13/2017 08:41 AM »
Gone for 30 for 2018 - 2 1/2 per month on average, voted 18 this year so in with a good chance....


Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #5 on: 12/13/2017 09:00 AM »
Personally I prefer the options in this poll. Much better than groupings. Well done
Perhaps a poll of how many expected failures too?

Offline whatever11235

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #6 on: 12/13/2017 09:00 AM »
Went with 32 as conservative estimate. Extra pad could bring another ~18 launches if everthing goes ok.

Offline Rebel44

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #7 on: 12/13/2017 09:53 AM »
Went for 28
26x Falcon 9
2x Falcon Heavy

Offline smoliarm

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #8 on: 12/13/2017 11:34 AM »
23

Last year I went with *13*,
and it turned out as first time ever I was pessimistic.

So, I wish SpaceX to do the same trick in 2018 :)

Offline ValmirGP

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #9 on: 12/13/2017 11:48 AM »
27. Three per month in nine active months!

Offline Darkseraph

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #10 on: 12/13/2017 11:50 AM »
20

They greatly exceeded my expectation this year with what should be 18 flights before the New Year. I expect them to perform slightly better next year as various delays and problems will show up and there is quite a lot of pressure to fly Dragon 2 demos. 20 flights is nothing to balk at however!
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." R.P.Feynman

Offline ZachS09

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #11 on: 12/13/2017 05:53 PM »
I was going to go with 30 launches for 2018, but I have a feeling that that last one might be delayed into January 2019, so I'm choosing 29.
"Liftoff of Falcon 9: the world's first reflight of an orbital-class rocket."

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #12 on: 12/13/2017 06:07 PM »
Voted for 28, a little under what they expect from next year since a delay or two could always push a few payloads to the year after.

Agree with your rationale but I plumped for 27. We know SpaceX are aiming for 30 (target was 20+ in 2017) and with 3 pads itís doable but something always crops up!

Offline jongoff

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #13 on: 12/14/2017 03:16 AM »
I voted 12 last year, and for the first time was overly pessimistic. I voted for 24 this time. I just have a hard time seeing them sustain more than two launches per month with their existing systems, but also expect them to do at least as good as this year and likely at least a bit better.

My $.02

~Jon

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #14 on: 12/14/2017 05:33 AM »
Personally I prefer the options in this poll. Much better than groupings. Well done
Perhaps a poll of how many expected failures too?
What kind of failures? Do you mean LOM? or landing failures?  Feel free to PM me and if it's not too morbid I probably can do one up... but we never did that in the past.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #15 on: 12/14/2017 05:13 PM »
My prediction is 24.

The reason behind this value is the following. In 2017 (if these last 2 make it before the EOY) 70% of the manifest in the beginning of 2017 was launched 18 of 26. This same % applied to 2018's manifest of 34 gives 24. An increase of 6 does not look like much but it does show a monthly rate increase from 2017's 1 1/2 /month to 2 /month.

So far it looks as if my prediction this year is more conservative than last year's as it relates to the crowd. But my prediction of 21 for 2017 was still a valid possibility until Oct 2017. But difficulties and challenges have a habit of slowing things down: weather, technical, resources contentions, schedules and windows. These challenges will still occur in 2018 but with less limitations due to the arrival of BLK 5 and having both 39A and 40 operational. SpaceX's demand for launches already are greater than it's supply. Such that BLK 5 reuse more than just once will relieve some of that as well as having two east coast pads hence the increase of 6 more launches almost all of which is done by these two pads. This means that launch rate on these two pads combined will reach and stabilize at 1.5 launches per month. If somehow SpaceX is able to sustain a launch rate of 2 per month combined from these two pads then they could reach their stated 30.

Online John Alan

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #16 on: 12/14/2017 07:39 PM »
I will wait till ~Jan 15th OR until Falcon Heavy launches... to cast a vote...  ;)
How next year goes does depend on that rocket clearing the tower AND making orbit... 8)... or not...  :-\

(hey, just using this poll's rules to my advantage...  ;D)

AND many thanks to Lar for the outstanding opening post with all the data linkage and choices...  8)

On Edit after Lar's post below...
So noted...  my bad...  :-[
« Last Edit: 12/14/2017 07:52 PM by John Alan »

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #17 on: 12/14/2017 07:45 PM »
I will wait till ~Jan 15th OR until Falcon Heavy launches... to cast a vote...  ;)
How next year goes does depend on that rocket clearing the tower AND making orbit... 8)... or not...  :-\

(hey, just using this poll's rules to my advantage...  ;D)
Please remember that posts along the lines of yours.... kind of fall afoul of this bit in the header :)
Quote
NOTE: We're interested in your rationale, but not in "should I vote yet" and not in "this poll is flawed because..."... those posts might just get trimmed.. Not going to limit it to one post per person at this time, but if there is too much trivial back and forth we might.

Just sayin'

But yeah, use the rules to your advantage, that's fine.... But watch out, I'm trying to get all the polls to end at exactly the same time via editing the end time... so if you wait to the last second you might be too late.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online high road

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #18 on: 12/14/2017 09:32 PM »
24, limited by payload availability and turnaround time on the east coast due to launching new vehicles with teething problems.

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #19 on: 12/14/2017 09:51 PM »
I chose 31.

There are 10 flights from Vandenberg on the 2018 manifest. This is double the 2017 flights (counting Iridium NEXT 4 in late December). This leaves another 8 additional flights from the Cape. With two pads, this seems manageable.

Achieving 31 launches will require a significant number of re-uses. SpaceX seems to have turned the corner in convincing customers with NASA and Iridium onboard (at least re-using boosters that went to LEO).

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