Poll

How do you think most[*] payloads will be launched in the near future (5-10 years)? (* see 1st post)

Fully reusable, max >130 t to LEO
8 (11.6%)
Fully reusable, max 60-130 t to LEO
18 (26.1%)
Fully reusable, max 10-60 t to LEO
12 (17.4%)
Fully reusable, max 1-10 t to LEO
0 (0%)
Partially reusable for an entire stage (any size)
24 (34.8%)
Partially reusable for the engines only (any size)
0 (0%)
Expendable (any size)
7 (10.1%)

Total Members Voted: 69

Voting closed: 09/27/2017 01:52 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Current views on RLVs  (Read 6553 times)

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: POLL: Current views on RLVs
« Reply #20 on: 09/24/2017 11:26 PM »
I voted "Partially reusable for an entire stage" because I think Falcon 9 will still be the predominate launcher in 5-10 years. I would be happy to be wrong though if it turns out we can have fully-reusable systems mature enough by that point.

As to the past, even 5 years ago I was not sure what the reusable rocket market would look like, and 10 years ago it was just something I read about in science fiction. My how things have changed!
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Online John Alan

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Re: POLL: Current views on RLVs
« Reply #21 on: 09/24/2017 11:46 PM »
I voted partial reusable by stage as leading the next 10 years...

The rocket equation strongly works against a fully reusable system bringing useful payload to orbit... unless you go huge...
ITSy looks to be an attempt to make that happen...

But for now... and especially in the 5 to 10 years out time frame...
The in use, and now somewhat proven, Falcon 9 system (RP1/Lox, road transportable, S1 recover) is the leader in the field of lowest possible cost of metric tons class payloads to orbit...

ITSy is just SpX thinking ahead and aiming to still be the leader in the 10 to 20 years time frame...

Offline Pipcard

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Re: POLL: Current views on RLVs
« Reply #22 on: 09/28/2017 05:50 AM »
Thank you for participating in this survey. This survey was also conducted on the forums for Kerbal Space Program and Orbiter Space Flight Simulator. A table and pie charts of the results are shown below.
« Last Edit: 09/28/2017 06:45 AM by Pipcard »

Offline savuporo

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Re: POLL: Current views on RLVs
« Reply #23 on: 09/28/2017 06:46 AM »
Makes you wonder what happened here, if KSP forums have more rational thought to go around  :o
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline envy887

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Re: POLL: Current views on RLVs
« Reply #24 on: 09/28/2017 03:43 PM »
Ed's list shows that so far in 2017, 30% (70.8 tonnes) of non-classified separable payload mass has been launched on reusable first stage vehicles, and the other 70% (168.3 tonnes) on expendable vehicles.

Online Lar

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Re: POLL: Current views on RLVs
« Reply #25 on: 09/28/2017 04:30 PM »
SpaceX has ~30% of the total world market by tonnage lofted. (~ is because they had some expendable launches too)

Let that sink in for a minute ...
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline AncientU

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Re: POLL: Current views on RLVs
« Reply #26 on: 09/28/2017 09:45 PM »
SpaceX has ~30% of the total world market by tonnage lofted. (~ is because they had some expendable launches too)

Let that sink in for a minute ...

If they had the 30%(70.8t) on their reusable vehicles and three expendables (totaling 18.35t), shouldn't they have around 38% of the world market or so?
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.0
« Last Edit: 09/28/2017 09:45 PM by AncientU »
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Online Lar

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Re: POLL: Current views on RLVs
« Reply #27 on: 09/28/2017 09:48 PM »
I'm an architect... 38%  == ~30%  :)

(I was too lazy to extrapolate the total tonnage, actually)
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

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