Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5  (Read 67490 times)

Online speedevil

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #140 on: 11/10/2017 12:57 PM »
I note on the manifest BFR is penciled in for 2022.

link

Is it sane to change this to September 2022, as the comments "
Quote
But that's our goal, is to try to make the 2022 Mars rendezvous. The Earth-Mars synchronization happens roughly every two years, so every two years there's an opportunity for just to fly to Mars.
make it clear they're not considering ridiculously high energy trajectories.

Sep 26 2022 in principle would allow a Dec 31 2022 landing.
Of course this would be NET, but a NET date which includes Jan 2022 seems wrong.
« Last Edit: 11/10/2017 01:54 PM by gongora »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #141 on: 11/10/2017 01:56 PM »
A BFR launching to Mars in 2022 is highly aspirational.  I'm not worried about putting a more exact date on it.  If it's still looking possible in three or four years then we can start refining the date on the schedule.

Offline S.Paulissen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #142 on: 11/11/2017 03:42 AM »
What payloads are actually built and ready for launch, just waiting for a rocket?
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Online rockets4life97

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #143 on: 11/11/2017 01:58 PM »
What payloads are actually built and ready for launch, just waiting for a rocket?

All the payloads going up in December for starters. We don't usually hear that payloads are complete until they are shipped to the launch site and we don't even get those reports.

It seems likely that SES-16 (GovSat-1) and SES-12 are both ready to fly. The SES CEO has talked about how long their payloads tend to sit in storage as one reason to go with reused Falcon 9s.

NASA's TESS I think has been complete for awhile now.

Iridium has more satellites built. However, they are constrained by the difficult task of replacing the old sats with the new ones and keeping their coverage going. So, I don't think they can put up a new batch any faster than every 40 or 60 days.

Es'hail-2 and Bangabandhu-1 may also be complete as these were expected to originally fly if Q4 2017 and should fly in Q1 2018.

Edit: I expect STP-2 and Arabsat 6A are also ready to fly since FH was expected to fly in 2017 prior to the Amos-6 incident.

PAZ is complete as it was supposed to fly on the now defunct Ukrainian-Russian Dneper vehicle in 2016.
« Last Edit: 11/11/2017 02:08 PM by rockets4life97 »

Online ChrisGebhardt

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #144 on: 11/11/2017 02:02 PM »
What payloads are actually built and ready for launch, just waiting for a rocket?

Iridium has more satellites built. However, they are constrained by the difficult task of replacing the old sats with the new ones and keeping their coverage going. So, I don't think they can put up a new batch any faster than every 40 or 60 days.


This is precisely correct. :) 

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #145 on: 11/11/2017 02:24 PM »
"40 or 60"... IMprecisely correct. Hehe.
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Offline deruch

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #146 on: 11/12/2017 03:26 AM »
What payloads are actually built and ready for launch, just waiting for a rocket?

NASA's TESS I think has been complete for awhile now.


TESS isn't ready yet, it's currently going through final testing.  But, that's mainly because testing is scheduled to track with launch date.  So, if the launch had been earlier, the testing would be done earlier as well.  So, this is sort of splitting the difference between "waiting for a rocket" and not.  I wouldn't be surprised to learn that many payloads are similarly scheduled. 

source on TESS being in testing currently: http://spacenews.com/nasa-trims-reserves-and-shifts-schedules-to-find-astrophysics-cost-savings/ 
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... with the spacecraft currently undergoing a series of tests,...
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Offline SmallKing

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #147 on: 11/12/2017 03:37 AM »
Looks like Hispasat has been delayed, payload issues maybe?
Quote
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral will launch the classified Zuma mission from
pad 39A on November 15 at 8:00pm EST. The launch window stretches two hours to 10:00pm EST.
The first stage of the rocket will land back at Cape Canaveral about eight minutes after liftoff. After
that, a Falcon 9 will launch the next Dragon resupply mission to the International Space Station,
CRS-13, currently planned from pad 40, on December 4 at the earliest, at 2:52pm EST. The launch
window will be instantaneous. The launch time gets approx. 22-26 minutes earlier each day. The first
stage of the rocket will land back at Cape Canaveral around eight minutes after liftoff. This could be
followed by the maiden flight of the Falcon 9 Heavy, from pad 39A, and its twin booster landings back
at the Cape, as early as the very end of December or early January TBD. Then, a Falcon 9 is slated
to launch the SES-16/GovSat-1 communications satellite, from pad 40, on mid-January TBA.
http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html
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Offline DreamyPickle

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #148 on: 11/12/2017 06:10 PM »
Looks like Hispasat has been delayed, payload issues maybe?
Quote
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral will launch the classified Zuma mission from pad 39A on November 15 at 8:00pm EST.

After that, a Falcon 9 will launch the next Dragon resupply mission to the International Space Station, CRS-13, currently planned from pad 40, on December 4 at the earliest, at 2:52pm EST.

This could be followed by the maiden flight of the Falcon 9 Heavy, from pad 39A, and its twin booster landings back at the Cape, as early as the very end of December or early January TBD.

Then, a Falcon 9 is slated to launch the SES-16/GovSat-1 communications satellite, from pad 40, on mid-January TBA.

And a Falcon 9 is slated to take a Dragon capsule on the next resupply mission to the ISS, CRS-14, on February 9, roughly around 11am or noon EST.
http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html

How reliable are the sources for that site? Launching just once every month from the Cape is too slow for SpaceX, maybe the list just contains a subset of launches for which better info is available.

If SES-16 is the next launch after CRS-14 then it might conflict with the Heavy Launch for the barge. Having to go back to shore, unload the booster and sail out again might take several days. The minimal interval between SES-16 and FH-Demo might be as long as one week.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #149 on: 11/12/2017 06:30 PM »
Looks like Hispasat has been delayed, payload issues maybe?
Quote
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral will launch the classified Zuma mission from pad 39A on November 15 at 8:00pm EST.

After that, a Falcon 9 will launch the next Dragon resupply mission to the International Space Station, CRS-13, currently planned from pad 40, on December 4 at the earliest, at 2:52pm EST.

This could be followed by the maiden flight of the Falcon 9 Heavy, from pad 39A, and its twin booster landings back at the Cape, as early as the very end of December or early January TBD.

Then, a Falcon 9 is slated to launch the SES-16/GovSat-1 communications satellite, from pad 40, on mid-January TBA.

And a Falcon 9 is slated to take a Dragon capsule on the next resupply mission to the ISS, CRS-14, on February 9, roughly around 11am or noon EST.
http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html

How reliable are the sources for that site? Launching just once every month from the Cape is too slow for SpaceX, maybe the list just contains a subset of launches for which better info is available.

He does some of the official photography for SpaceX, he's generally a good source for near-term schedule information.

There are going to be months where SpaceX only launches once from the East Coast, especially when they're launching from the West Coast that month.  The flight rate isn't that high yet.  Even if they do launch 30 times next year that wouldn't be twice from the Cape every month.

Offline vaporcobra

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #150 on: 11/12/2017 08:13 PM »
How reliable are the sources for that site? Launching just once every month from the Cape is too slow for SpaceX, maybe the list just contains a subset of launches for which better info is available.

He does some of the official photography for SpaceX, he's generally a good source for near-term schedule information.

There are going to be months where SpaceX only launches once from the East Coast, especially when they're launching from the West Coast that month.  The flight rate isn't that high yet.  Even if they do launch 30 times next year that wouldn't be twice from the Cape every month.

Also, December is an exceptional month in terms of pad uncertainty. LC-40 still needs to be put through its paces as a new pad, bug fixes are probable and bigger kinks possible. 39A is also undergoing significant changes for Falcon Heavy, and SpaceX seems intent to aggressively push for a Falcon Heavy launch in Dec or Jan.

All that while still aiming to launch CRS-13 and Iridium-4 in the same month, and it is unsurprising that Hispasat has been pushed back a bit! SpaceX's pad crews are only human ;D
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Offline deruch

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #151 on: 11/12/2017 08:50 PM »
It seems clear there is likely a second launch opportunity from SLC-40 in December after CRS-13 if we are only considering demonstrated cadence.  But this ignores the fact that the East Coast launch team is going to be working the Falcon Heavy launch quite heavily.  All the activities around integrating and testing a new vehicle for the first time, including multiple dry runs and rehearsals.  If FH goes uber-smoothly and "slips left" then maybe they can still sneak Hispasat in under the wire.  But, with the year-end holidays in there too,  why bother straining everyone for just a few days worth of advantage?  The benefit of being able to get an additional launch within the calendar year is purely nominal (non-space launch usage) and quite arbitrary.
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #152 on: 11/13/2017 04:29 PM »
Further re: speculation that Hispasat 30W-6 could still launch from Canaveral SLC-40 in the very last days of 2017:
Apparently, but not conclusively, no.

Cross-posts from the Hispasat 30W-6 discussion thread:
Has the payload left SSL in Palo Alto and been delivered to SpaceX operations at Cape Canaveral for pre-launch processing?  (I know our NSF contributors are usually very quick to report such things, if they are free to do so.)

It takes a finite amount of time to process the payloads for launch.  What is the average processing time for a geo-comm payload, from delivery to stacking on the launch vehicle?

If that process has not yet started, then perhaps the launch must be delayed into early 2018?

(The focus here on NSF is on the LV, particularly so for Falcon 9--1st stage watches, etc.)

In the Zuma static fire article that Chris G. wrote today he lists the expected flights for the rest of the year, and Hispasat isn't on there.  It seems likely to slip into 2018.

And:
In a June FCC filing Hispasat said "launch and place in operation scheduled for May 2018".  There is typically some gap between launch and placing in operation, so that's a bit vague.  Then in an August press release for another mission the manufacturer said it would be launching later this year.  As noted in the Zuma static fire article, it doesn't seem to actually be on the manifest for 2017.  I'm going with first half of 2018 for now, and will refine the estimated date if we get any more news on the mission.

To re-purpose a phrase:
The Falcon dance card appears to be (very) full through the end of December 2017, and perhaps into the early days of January 2018.
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Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #153 on: 11/14/2017 11:24 AM »
Here is an updated "FPIP" chart - with a new symbol (big star) which stands for a big event - Falcon Heavy Static Fire in mid-December.
It's only a month away  :o

And a usual note:
the chart is basically a guesswork, as there is a little info on Falcon's launch schedule beyond next 3-4 flights.

Offline Eagandale4114

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #154 on: 11/15/2017 01:09 AM »
Another FCC app (crossposting from Reddit).

This is for mission 1389 a RTLS from SLC-40 that will launch in H1 2018. Any idea as to what this one is?

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #155 on: 11/15/2017 01:51 AM »
Another FCC app (crossposting from Reddit).

This is for mission 1389 a RTLS from SLC-40 that will launch in H1 2018. Any idea as to what this one is?

It's not RTLS, it clearly mentions the drone ship.  Probably the first GTO flight of the year (Govsat?).

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #156 on: 11/15/2017 02:02 AM »
On the subject of FCC permits, we are getting a nice reset at the end of the year when the last permit we don't really know the payload for (we've been assuming it was for Hispasat since it's expendable) expires, assuming it isn't actually used by then.  The only active ASDS permit will be the new one mentioned above, and no expendable flights will have active permits (which doesn't mean there won't be more next year, we just haven't seen the paperwork yet).

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #157 on: 11/20/2017 03:12 AM »
I tend not to look at the FAA site nearly as often as I look at the FCC site, but SpaceX should be needing at least 8 new or modified FAA launch licenses through next April/May (including Zuma which apparently won't ever be publicly available on their site, just like Formosat 5.)  Some to watch out for as their flights approach would be FH Demo, GTO flights from SLC-40, PAZ, TESS, GRACE-FO, DM-1, SSO-A.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #158 on: 11/20/2017 04:55 AM »
Has the ZUMA mission been rescheduled? If so; anyone know when?
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #159 on: 11/20/2017 05:16 PM »
Has the ZUMA mission been rescheduled? If so; anyone know when?

No new launch date for Zuma has been determined as of today.
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