Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2H (1 July - 31 December) 2017 from Vandenberg?

0
0 (0%)
1
1 (2.1%)
2
4 (8.5%)
3
17 (36.2%)
4
19 (40.4%)
5
6 (12.8%)
6
0 (0%)
7
0 (0%)
8
0 (0%)
9
0 (0%)
10
0 (0%)
11-15
0 (0%)
16-20
0 (0%)
21-25
0 (0%)
More than 25!
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 47

Voting closed: 08/01/2017 09:27 PM

Author Topic: POLL: How many SpaceX flights from Vandy In 2H 2017?  (Read 1291 times)

Offline Lar

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Number of SpaceX orbital flight attempts in 2H 2017 from Vandeberg AFB

See http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.0 for lots of details. Same exact rules and criteria apply here.

There are three polls:

Overall: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43271.0
Vandy:   http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43274.0 (this one)
Cape:    http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43275.0
 
Your site numbers don't have to sum to the overall if you don't want. :)
 
The question is simple. How many more flights will SpaceX get in this year, starting from 1 July (so the (as of this minute) not yet launched Intelsat 35e launch is part of your prediction if it hasn't launched, or a "gimme" if it has, except of course it is not launching from Vandy so... :) ) FROM VANDENBERG AFB. There's only one pad unless they build another one right quick (but if they did, it would count)

NOTE: We're interested in your rationale, but not in "should I vote yet" and not in "this poll is flawed because..."... those posts might just get trimmed.. Not going to limit it to one post per person at this time, but if there is too much trivial back and forth we might.
« Last Edit: 07/02/2017 09:52 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights from Vandy In 2H 2017?
« Reply #1 on: 07/02/2017 09:29 PM »
I think 3 of the Iridiums plus a couple extra. Wild optimism. Which also doesnt square with my overall guess.

PS I had a typo and cleared someone else's very eager vote. Sorry. Vote again!
« Last Edit: 07/02/2017 09:30 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline mme

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights from Vandy In 2H 2017?
« Reply #2 on: 07/02/2017 09:32 PM »
Voted 2 to be consistent with my 8 more for the year.  ::)
Space is not Highlander.  There can, and will, be more than one.

Online gongora

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights from Vandy In 2H 2017?
« Reply #3 on: 07/02/2017 09:36 PM »
I'm torn between 3 or 4 Vandy flights to fit into my overall 13 second half flights.  I'll go with 3: Formosat-5 and two Iridium flights.

Offline Bubbinski

I'll say 2, an Iridium and Formosat. SpaceX is getting better at this launch cadence thing, but this is space travel and delays can and do still happen. They have a lot on their plate and if Falcon Heavy fails its test launch that could delay F9 launches depending on the cause and what the data says about what failed.
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights from Vandy In 2H 2017?
« Reply #5 on: 07/06/2017 02:00 PM »
For SLC-4E it would be 5.

3 more Iridium
FORMOSAT-5
SOACOM-1A

The primary problem is availability of payloads ready to fly. Then it is boosters availability and last pad/Range availability. They could launch as many as 8 (one every 3 weeks for the six months) but there is just not enough combination of payloads and boosters to support that many.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights from Vandy In 2H 2017?
« Reply #6 on: 07/08/2017 06:54 AM »
For SLC-4E it would be 5.

3 more Iridium
FORMOSAT-5
SOACOM-1A

The primary problem is availability of payloads ready to fly. Then it is boosters availability and last pad/Range availability. They could launch as many as 8 (one every 3 weeks for the six months) but there is just not enough combination of payloads and boosters to support that many.

Iíve gone with 4. I think only 2 more Iridium launches (as next is September & 2 months between launches), FORMOSAT-5 plus 1 for luck  ;)

Offline Joffan

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights from Vandy In 2H 2017?
« Reply #7 on: 07/08/2017 06:19 PM »
I'm going to be more optimistic than my "overall" vote and say 3.
When I say "Jump!", you say "To which orbital inclination?"

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights from Vandy In 2H 2017?
« Reply #8 on: 08/04/2017 10:10 PM »
By end of Sept the count for 2H 2017 for Vafb will be 2. With 2 more in 4Q that makes total of 4. My original estimate was 5.
« Last Edit: 08/04/2017 10:11 PM by oldAtlas_Eguy »

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