Author Topic: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 5  (Read 183618 times)

Offline John Alan

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 5
« Reply #560 on: 10/03/2017 01:54 PM »
I would speculate 1 and then both 1 and 2 later...  ???

First pad BFR only is on land there and is the development test pad at first...
Pad has all the bells and whistles including passenger access added by the time that's needed... 

Offshore... as flight rate grows... Tanker only pads/bases are developed... several of them...

I say this because tanker flights will dominate the manifest by 2030...

Just my opinion where this is going...  ;)

On edit...
SpaceX needs a BFR type enabled pad to start testing... SOON...
Can double as the Booster static fire stand to start with also...
I could even see BFS's test hopping off that pad (w/ special mounts) and landing nearby...
(note suborbital test BFS's would have 6 SL engines and max ~800tonnes prop in this test config)

Just clarifying my thought process that led to the above statement...  ;)
« Last Edit: 10/03/2017 02:23 PM by John Alan »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 5
« Reply #561 on: 10/03/2017 01:54 PM »
* We see the a new environmentalism analysis for BFR sized rockets

For me, this is the key.

Other decisions and approvals may be done privately, behind closed doors, and we would never know.

But any amendments to the EIS would require a public comment period well in advance of any construction, so this is the probably first way we would know for sure.
Boca Chica can support suborbital test flights under the current EIS, BTW.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Online Dave G

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 5
« Reply #562 on: 10/03/2017 09:29 PM »
Boca Chica can support suborbital test flights under the current EIS, BTW.

Yes, but the EIS specifically mentions Grasshopper in connection with suborbital test flights.

Remember, when the EIS was originally written back in 2013, SpaceX had not yet even attempted to recover a first stage, and no plans for BFR had been released.

So I believe it's extremely unlikely that the FAA would allow SpaceX to do BFR testing at Boca Chica without amending the EIS.

Offline Req

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 5
« Reply #563 on: 10/04/2017 09:27 PM »
Boca Chica can support suborbital test flights under the current EIS, BTW.

Yes, but the EIS specifically mentions Grasshopper in connection with suborbital test flights.

Remember, when the EIS was originally written back in 2013, SpaceX had not yet even attempted to recover a first stage, and no plans for BFR had been released.

So I believe it's extremely unlikely that the FAA would allow SpaceX to do BFR testing at Boca Chica without amending the EIS.

I don't think most people are envisioning the booster being involved in any initial suborbital BFS testing, probably for quite some time.

Online Dave G

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 5
« Reply #564 on: 10/05/2017 10:31 PM »
Careers take the spotlight during annual Fall Career Expo in Brownsville
http://www.utrgv.edu/en-us/about-utrgv/news/press-releases/2017/october-04-careers-take-the-spotlight-during-annual-fall-career-expo-in-brownsville/index.htm

Quote
Luis Mireles (at right), a UTRGV sophomore majoring in Business Administration, talks with SpaceX representatives during UTRGVís annual Fall Career Expo about opportunities in Elon Muskís visionary company, which currently is building a rocket launch site at Boca Chica Beach.

Offline Semmel

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 5
« Reply #565 on: 10/07/2017 09:59 PM »
Any idea how we could find out if BFR can launch from Boca Chica or not? I am looking for clues here that could disprove one of the two hypotehsis:

1. BFR will launch from the Boca Chica facilities SpaceX is currently building
2. BFR will launch from a sea platform near Boca Chica

What action we can see would indicate one or the other?

I want to add an other hypothesis:
3. F9 will launch from Boca Chica

Thinking about this. Sorry to quote my self but I want to find some indicators for the hypothesis. Whether Boca Chica is BFR only or mixed pad or F9 only, we probably will not know until the pad is almost finished. So thats not a good indicator. Unless all work on the pad stops, which would indicate that the launch site development is cancelled but does not indicate how BFR launches.

How would we know BFR will launch from a sea-platform?
* SpaceX buys oil rigs or even larger barges. Not sure we would see any of this even if it happens
* SpaceX hires people with oil rig experience
* SpaceX is taking up shop at the harbour with way more equipment than would be needed for F9 first stages processing

How would we know BFR launches from the launch pad?
* We see the horizontal integration facility with 9m tall and 14m wide doors.
* We see the a new environmentalism analysis for BFR sized rockets
* SpaceX asks the residents of Boca Chica kindly to agree they leave their houses during launch operations
* They try to buy all the houses for double or tripple the normal prices to compensate residents for moving away
* We see a CH4 pipeline from the new refinery to the launch complex
* We see CH4 equipment like additional CH4 liquidization, sub-cooling and storage tanks

How do we know if F9 will launch from Boca Chica?:
* There need to be RP1 equipment, not sure if that is easily identifiable though
* Helium tanks, pipes and cooling facilities. This one might be the most telling if the launch platform is dual use or BFR only if BFR launches from land. If there is helium equipment, there is F9.
* A TEL is constructed that matches the one on 39A


Are there any more ideas?

The BC TEL will be heavily similar to the majority of 39A TEL with changes.

If true, this confirms at least the existence of F9 in Boca Chica and disproves the hypothesis that the pad will be for BFR alone. Of course, plans can change but I didnt have the TEL on my list above.

Online docmordrid

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 5
« Reply #566 on: 10/08/2017 02:02 AM »
Unless there are two different pads on the same flame trench. The BFR being closer to the exit, and a movable barrier to block off the F9/FH pads throat during BFR launches.
DM

Online Dave G

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 5
« Reply #567 on: 10/08/2017 02:30 PM »
For the property where the antenna dish sits, it looks like Cameron County re-platted 32 small lots into 1 large lot.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 5
« Reply #568 on: 10/12/2017 09:07 AM »
Cross-posting with my emphasis (also suspect auto-correct issue - BFF clearly should be BFR):

Straight from Shotwell to me tonight. BFF is too expensive to road transport from Hawthorne to the port. New factory to be built in LA port for BFF. More production sites later near launch facilities. Texas is a definite BFF launch site.

In addition various reddit comments from Gwynne Shotwell's talk and Q&A last night say that the Boca Chica site is now specifically for BFR.

Edit: typo correction
« Last Edit: 10/12/2017 09:29 AM by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline John Alan

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 5
« Reply #569 on: 10/12/2017 01:25 PM »
More then ever... I'm convinced Texas will be BFR only as built...  :o

Would I bet money... not yet... but I am getting much closer to that point...  ;)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ehhh, check again. There was a ton of very new information. Vague speculation on NSF does not equal straight-from-Shotwell info.

General sampling:
-larger Raptor currently under construction
-hope is for manufacturing facilities at all BFR launch pads
-confirmed that Boca is explicitly for BFR
-suggested that SpaceX could fund BFR and Starlink simultaneously, albeit with a bit longer timeline
-reiterated December for FH and possibly LC-40
-BFR P2P wouldn't be economical for short trips, but could be cheaper than economy flights for long trips
-fairings to be regularly reused by H2 2018
-S2 recovery will not actually attempt recovery, more just explore the orbital reentry regime
-confident that SpaceX can make carbon composite prop tanks operational, BFR could be ready before the stuff needed to live on Mars
-SpaceX will build the Martian infrastructure if they have to, would prefer other companies to start work on it
-not likely a coincidence that Musk started TBC, tunnels will be crucial until domes and terraforming on Mars

And much more.

 :o  :o  :o... (Falls off couch)...  :P  ???  ;D
« Last Edit: 10/12/2017 01:25 PM by John Alan »

Offline joesmith

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 5
« Reply #570 on: 10/12/2017 02:41 PM »
Reality=Politics 

Offline John Alan

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 5
« Reply #571 on: 10/12/2017 02:44 PM »
If I understand correctly, the Boca Chica site will be BFR only? I guess that means they will be filing a new or amended EIS sometime?

Matthew
AFAIK, Falcon 9 will launch from Boca Chica NET later 2019

And in my opinion...
There will never be any RP-1 tank farms, or Falcon 9 GSE, HIF's, T/E's, or F9 hardware ever seen at Boca Chica for all eternity...
Yes... I am of the opinion a new EIS is in the works...
I also opine that the first BFR (the booster) static fire will be over that trench in Boca Chica on the actual Launch Mount...
Not 39a...Or anywhere else
My 2 cents on subtopic...  ;)

On edit... I am willing now to wager $$$ on this opinion with any one thinking otherwise... :)
Reference Texas launch pad thread... and suggest we take further talk of this over there...

Quoting subtopic and moving discussion on it here... JA

Offline meberbs

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 5
« Reply #572 on: 10/12/2017 03:04 PM »
And in my opinion...
There will never be any RP-1 tank farms, or Falcon 9 GSE, HIF's, T/E's, or F9 hardware ever seen at Boca Chica for all eternity...
Yes... I am of the opinion a new EIS is in the works...
I also opine that the first BFR (the booster) static fire will be over that trench in Boca Chica on the actual Launch Mount...
Not 39a...Or anywhere else
My 2 cents on subtopic...  ;)

On edit... I am willing now to wager $$$ on this opinion with any one thinking otherwise... :)
Reference Texas launch pad thread... and suggest we take further talk of this over there...

Quoting subtopic and moving discussion on it here... JA
I don't think anyone would be wise to take you up on that bet. I just saw another interview with a senior director of SpaceX. Here is the relevant quote:
Quote
You have two pads in Florida, pus Vandenberg. Is it fair to say that given what you can do from your current locations, you donít need one in Texas?

Yes, thatís correct. We have demonstrated we can launch at least twice from each of these pads. Weíre talking about being able to do at least six launches a month if we wanted to. It is not our intention to do so.

What we have manifested in customer commitments are not bottlenecked by the lack of a fourth launch site. We can manage with the three. Between upgrading our production capability, having the pads ó and most importantly, the visibility ó between the balance of those three we donít foresee not being able to meet customer commitments. I am happy to take on more launch commitments right now.

6*12 = 72 launches per year. It sounds like SpaceX would consider developing Boca Chica for anything other than BFR would be a waste of money, and that does not sound like something they would do.

Offline hkultala

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 5
« Reply #573 on: 10/12/2017 03:48 PM »
6*12 = 72 launches per year. It sounds like SpaceX would consider developing Boca Chica for anything other than BFR would be a waste of money, and that does not sound like something they would do.

Cannot just calculate sum of all and use it for anything reasonable.

Vandenberg does not work for GTO or ISS launches and Florida does does not work for polar orbit launches.


If they need 28 launches/year to polar orbits, current pads are not enough.
If they need 28 (manned + heavy, iss + gto) launches/year, current pads are not enough (as SLC-40 is only F9 unmanned)


And if they start converting any of their pads from F9/FH to BFR, that pad is out of action during the conversion.

« Last Edit: 10/12/2017 03:48 PM by hkultala »

Offline John Alan

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 5
« Reply #574 on: 10/12/2017 04:10 PM »
To clarify my position on the timeline... BFR launchpads
Boca Chica will be the first... but not the last or only BFR able pad...
Next in my honest opinion... They will mod or greenfield one somewhere on the Vandenberg Range...
for Starlink launches... and other polar orbit payloads...

After that it gets much more Murky... Depends on other outside factors...
Greenfield site or sites (pl) yet TBD
Is STS mothballed at some point?... Lease and mod 39b is a possibility...
As speculated... make 39a dual use...

Just clarifying...  ;)
« Last Edit: 10/12/2017 04:14 PM by John Alan »

Offline meberbs

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 5
« Reply #575 on: 10/12/2017 04:27 PM »
6*12 = 72 launches per year. It sounds like SpaceX would consider developing Boca Chica for anything other than BFR would be a waste of money, and that does not sound like something they would do.

Cannot just calculate sum of all and use it for anything reasonable.

Vandenberg does not work for GTO or ISS launches and Florida does does not work for polar orbit launches.


If they need 28 launches/year to polar orbits, current pads are not enough.
If they need 28 (manned + heavy, iss + gto) launches/year, current pads are not enough (as SLC-40 is only F9 unmanned)


And if they start converting any of their pads from F9/FH to BFR, that pad is out of action during the conversion.
I am well aware of that, the number was just to express what 6 launches per month would mean. We are talking about something approaching the current global number of annual launches. Boca Chica can't help with the polar orbits. Manned launches and Falcon Heavy launches combined is quite unlikely to reach greater than 24 per year before BFR flies, at which point demand for them should rapidly drop. By the time they need a second BFR pad, there shouldn't be a problem shutting down 39A for a while.

Offline rsdavis9

I think the BFS will static fire and do suborbital flights from boca chica. BFR will do static fire and suborbital. But I think the first BFR/BFS flight will be from 39a. They need 39a to populate their com satellite orbits. boca chica has a very narrow launch azimuth. (unless they can get that changed?)
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Offline mme

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 5
« Reply #577 on: 10/12/2017 04:47 PM »
I think the BFS will static fire and do suborbital flights from boca chica. BFR will do static fire and suborbital. But I think the first BFR/BFS flight will be from 39a. They need 39a to populate their com satellite orbits. boca chica has a very narrow launch azimuth. (unless they can get that changed?)
Boca Chica is now "officially" for BFR:
Ehhh, check again. There was a ton of very new information. Vague speculation on NSF does not equal straight-from-Shotwell info.

General sampling:
...
-confirmed that Boca is explicitly for BFR
...
And much more.
Space is not Highlander.  There can, and will, be more than one.

Online nacnud

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 5
« Reply #578 on: 10/12/2017 04:48 PM »
Thought experiment: If the BFR is as reliable as hoped, at what point would it be allowed to over fly land? On a nominal launch it will be 100% reusable so won't drop anything intentionally. I drive under low flying A380s and 747s regularly, as do millions, but if one of those fell out of the sky things would dramatic fast. If allowed to fly over land then the need for multiple launch sites, and multiple boosters recedes. 

Thoughts?

Online jebbo

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 5
« Reply #579 on: 10/12/2017 04:52 PM »
From https://mainenginecutoff.com/blog/2017/10/shotwell-at-stanford, this seems reasonable:

Quote
And thinking about it more, Boca Chica is the perfect place to work out landings back on the launch mount. Trying to pull that initial testing off at 39A would be a non-starter as far as NASA is concerned.

--- Tony

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