Author Topic: Falcon Heavy Demo Mission Payload Speculation  (Read 45650 times)

Offline oiorionsbelt

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Re: Falcon Heavy Demo Mission Payload Speculation
« Reply #220 on: 11/10/2017 09:47 PM »
Most likely they would launch something that helps them achieve their Mars aspirations.
It may just be a mass simulator payload with the second stage Frankinstiened in order to get re-entry data.
However SpaceX have had a long, long, long time to think about and build the payload for the FH demo mission so I doubt it will be a dumb mass simulator. Satellite to orbit Mars is possible and just getting something into Mars orbit would be a huge boost on their Mars ambitions.

Online nacnud

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Re: Falcon Heavy Demo Mission Payload Speculation
« Reply #221 on: 11/10/2017 10:23 PM »
A working model of the Valley forge from Silent Running, complete with greenhouses! ;)

Offline Lar

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Re: Falcon Heavy Demo Mission Payload Speculation
« Reply #222 on: 11/10/2017 11:15 PM »
A working model of the Valley forge from Silent Running, complete with greenhouses! ;)


They'd have to update AA's logo :)
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Kaputnik

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Re: Falcon Heavy Demo Mission Payload Speculation
« Reply #223 on: 11/11/2017 12:05 AM »
Most likely they would launch something that helps them achieve their Mars aspirations.
It may just be a mass simulator payload with the second stage Frankinstiened in order to get re-entry data.
However SpaceX have had a long, long, long time to think about and build the payload for the FH demo mission so I doubt it will be a dumb mass simulator. Satellite to orbit Mars is possible and just getting something into Mars orbit would be a huge boost on their Mars ambitions.

Next Mars launch window opens c. April next year. I don't think anybody wants them to wait that long.
Waiting for joy and raptor

Offline alang

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Re: Falcon Heavy Demo Mission Payload Speculation
« Reply #224 on: 11/11/2017 02:44 PM »
I'm sticking to my opinion that they'll want to re-enter a scale model of the BFS at some point, but I have to admit it would be difficult now.
It seems that computation and current wind tunnels are not fully up to the job of demonstrating the reality of hypersonic flight and the new BFS has fins.
The obvious problem to me for an early scale model is attitude control, so the conservatives may be right.

Offline NX-0

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Re: Falcon Heavy Demo Mission Payload Speculation
« Reply #225 on: 11/12/2017 08:38 PM »
Perhaps the FH payload will be something...Boring.

Offline speedevil

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Re: Falcon Heavy Demo Mission Payload Speculation
« Reply #226 on: 11/13/2017 02:15 AM »
Perhaps the FH payload will be something...Boring.
How deep will a 70 ton half meter rod of tungsten go at 8km/s?

Offline IanThePineapple

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Re: Falcon Heavy Demo Mission Payload Speculation
« Reply #227 on: 11/13/2017 02:18 AM »
Perhaps the FH payload will be something...Boring.
How deep will a 70 ton half meter rod of tungsten go at 8km/s?

I think SpaceX wants to stay on all of Earth's good side, making a nuclear-like impact wouldn't be too good
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Offline CapitalistOppressor

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Re: Falcon Heavy Demo Mission Payload Speculation
« Reply #228 on: 11/13/2017 04:49 AM »
Ok, if this thread is partyesque in its rigor I'll bite.  FWIW I'm posting from memory about an article I was considering writing on the subject back in 2013/14, and I'm on my phone without access to source materials.  So some minor details might be mixed up.

And to be certain, I did not write the article because it's fundamentally a conspiracy theory I concocted that would be difficult to prove and could easily, and convincingly, be denied.  But there have been similar suggestions recently, and I am still suspicious, though my operating assumption has been that it's almost certainly wrong.

The core of the conspiracy theory rests on the simple fact that the Lunar X-Prize team named Synergy Moon named their rovers Tesla Prospector and Tesla Surveyor back around 2010.  Against all odds Synergy Moon remains one of the few contestants still in the contest.

That is a simple fact that can be easily Googled.  The rest is my opinion or just suspicious looking.

First, a little digging showed that Synergy Moon took over/joined with  an older LXP team around 2010.  At this time the rover concept of the older team changed and was renamed for Nikola Tesla.  The team members who made up Synergy Moon had in many cases CV's that read more like people doing a documentary or filming a commercial.

The impetuous for the Tesla name appeared to come from what appeared to be financial backing by a brand new Philadelphia non-profit named Tesla Science Foundation (there is also a Tesla Foundation, which is a different entity, and I might have them backwards since I'm going from memory).

That entity was headed by a private investigator who purportedly had a long time interest in Nikola Tesla.  But suddenly in 2010 he became the head of the TSF and had contacts with the Croatian Space Agency (iirc), and had decided to fund the new Tesla Rovers.  His LinkedIn page was pretty barebones and the only conversations/links were with some accounts based in San Francisco.

The CFO for the organization was a Ted Talking tech world VC bigwig lawyer in the Philadelphia area.

The rovers themselves used the same NVidia Tegra chips used to run the Model S and were being programmed with self driving capability by a guy whose doctoral thesis was about using those chips to power a Moon rover, who again was hired in the late 2010-2011 time frame.

The Croatian Space Agency has apparently built test articles of the purported rovers.  The launch provider is a company that builds real rockets and was the core of the older team before being joined by SM.

Nikola Tesla is a national hero in the Balkans there is a clear air of legitimacy about the project outside of the listed Synergy Moon members, so I've always assumed they are likely to be legitimate contestants, if presumed longshots.

But as a layman I was skeptical of the ability of the launch provider to actually get them to the moon.  I still remain skeptical, and the teams ability to be one of the few teams able to keep advancing in the competition has always been somewhat suspicious. 

Also, while I doubt the ability of the launch provider to get them to the moon, they look like they'd be perfect to develop a Moon lander for Elon as part of a highly deniable Moon project done in plain sight outside of the spotlight on Tesla and SpaceX.  They've been testing rocket engines and everything.

I never ran down the technical specs of their engines or got a professional opinion on their suitability for landing Model S derived Moon buggies, so I expect to be confronted shortly with some rocket equation hoodoo saying why it's nuts.  Like I said, I never really believed the theory myself.

P.S. There were potential legal issues as well that I didn't get far enough to resolve.  i.e. iirc Elon is a member of the LXP board, which has repeatedly extended the competition (which dates accommodated the then current timeline for FH).

So I'm not sure he can even participate/win the prize.  I'm also not certain they could subsistute Model S derived Moon buggies for the hardware that has supposedly been being scored this whole time.

I did think it would be an amazing marketing opportunity for Tesla.  The Synergy Moon team has talked at times about teleoperation, which could be branded as the ultimate "test drives."  I also considered the value of putting a crash test dummy in the car and streaming the descent from in the car.  If it crashes you still get awesome commercials about your safety testing program.

There are also two Teslas listed in the team (prospector/surveyor).  The early release dates that were discussed for Model X also corresponded with early plans for Falcon Heavy and LXP deadlines.

Part of the reason I didn't FOIA the Tesla Science Foundation IRS disclosures was because if it was true I wasn't sure I wanted to spoil the surprise.  Even just a month out from the launch I'm somewhat ambivalent, but I figure it's highly unlikely to be true, and blowing their cover right before the launch might actually be helpful.

Offline sghill

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Re: Falcon Heavy Demo Mission Payload Speculation
« Reply #229 on: 11/13/2017 05:13 AM »
I too have entertained the far fetched hope of a Lunar Xprize entry as the payload.

At this late hour, there'd have to be an FCC application submitted.

There are only 5 possible applicants who can win the prize money. Though I suppose a non contestant could do it just to do it. Three of the teams are US based, but only SpaceIL has expressed a desire to ride on a SpaceX rocket. There are a lot of "whatifs" that have to occur before a suprise Lunar Xprize entry shows up.
« Last Edit: 11/13/2017 11:41 AM by sghill »
Bring the thunder Elon!

Offline biosehnsucht

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Re: Falcon Heavy Demo Mission Payload Speculation
« Reply #230 on: 11/13/2017 06:15 AM »
If someone outside of LXP competition more-or-less fulfills the goals of the LXP competition, does the competition keep going (where 1st place in LXP is 2nd place in reality now) ? Or does LXP just throw in the towel?

Online Semmel

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Re: Falcon Heavy Demo Mission Payload Speculation
« Reply #231 on: 11/13/2017 06:52 AM »
SpaceX said often enough that they are not going to launch a customer on FH maiden flight due to the low probability of success and uncertain schedule. It's something that is provided by SpaceX that doesn't has its own critical schedule.

Offline Johnnyhinbos

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Re: Falcon Heavy Demo Mission Payload Speculation
« Reply #232 on: 11/13/2017 08:14 AM »
Lol - Zuma maybe...? ( kidding I guess)
John Hanzl. Author, action / adventure www.johnhanzl.com

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