Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2017?

None
0 (0%)
1
1 (0.3%)
2
1 (0.3%)
3
0 (0%)
4
0 (0%)
5
0 (0%)
6
5 (1.6%)
7
5 (1.6%)
8
8 (2.5%)
9
8 (2.5%)
10
24 (7.5%)
11
18 (5.6%)
12
45 (14.1%)
13
36 (11.3%)
14
24 (7.5%)
15
31 (9.7%)
16
25 (7.8%)
17
16 (5%)
18
26 (8.1%)
19
9 (2.8%)
20
14 (4.4%)
21-25
21 (6.6%)
26-30
2 (0.6%)
31-35
0 (0%)
more than 35 !!!!
1 (0.3%)

Total Members Voted: 320

Voting closed: 01/19/2017 06:46 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017  (Read 44359 times)

Offline Endeavour_01

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #60 on: 12/23/2016 12:51 AM »
I voted 12, which is a tiny bit down from my prediction last year (13). I think SpaceX will manage a launch every month (with one of the launches being the first Falcon Heavy). 
I cheer for both NASA and commercial space. For SLS, Orion, Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Dragon, Starliner, Cygnus and all the rest!
I was blessed to see the launch of Space Shuttle Endeavour on STS-99. The launch was beyond amazing. My 8-year old mind was blown. I remember the noise and seeing the exhaust pour out of the shuttle as it lifted off. I remember staring and watching it soar while it was visible in the clear blue sky. It was one of the greatest moments of my life and I will never forget it.

Offline Owlon

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #61 on: 12/23/2016 08:22 PM »
Expecting a perhaps-optimistic 15-20, voted 18. I figure if they can get 7 and 8 rockets off the pad in the last two years while spending half of each year investigating failures, they should be able to get close to 20 this year with no failures.*

Should be able to do 6ish out of Vandenberg, 12ish out of 39A and a few from 40, minus a few overall due to inevitable pad teething issues.

*Please, please, please no more failures

Offline watermod

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #62 on: 12/24/2016 02:07 AM »
I suspect they will find the need to to move the HE tanks  out of the Oxygen with a pause for that.   This causes me to be a pessimist and say 9.

Offline Mader Levap

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #63 on: 12/24/2016 01:15 PM »
14.

Justification and assumptions:

- No launch failure. Sadly, it is incerasingly risky assumption, considering they had already two years with one failure each (no, I don't care about "but it was static fire" nitpickery). Hopefully, they will fare way, way better than Proton reliability-wise in future.

- They already proven they can sustain 1/month launch cadence. So, 12. I wanted slightly more than that allowing for possibility they will launch twice in one month from time to time (probably closer to end of year).

- No FH. It will be, as always, six months in future for entire 2017. (that implies either Red Dragon will be on maiden FH flight or more likely it will slip to 2020)
Be successful.  Then tell the haters to (BLEEP) off. - deruch
...and if you have failure, tell it anyway.

Offline eriblo

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #64 on: 12/27/2016 04:49 PM »
End of Year prediction:  19.
I do not expect it to change but I will vote closer to the deadline as I think there might be more information regarding the plans for SLC-40 before then, especially if they have a successful RTF. (Hedging for further investigation delays or an early failure is an added bonus  ;) ).

Long motivation, included mostly for my own sake as I regret not writing one for all previous years:

Poll2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Prediction   249914
Launches 23678
Failures00011

The obvious extrapolation is 9 launches and 1 (or possibly 2) failures - however extrapolation is just a guess that they will have 1 failure and roughly the same launch rate...

Assumption 1): I expect no failures that severely impact the schedule. I didn't previous years, which might or might not have been optimistic, but the probability should be even lower now and I'm an optimist :).

The last three years I looked at the manifest and took all in H1, none in Q4 with individual guesses for Q3 and special missions (CRS, FH). This was optimistic in 2014 while the rate in 2015 was well above my guess until CRS-7. This year it would likely have been a little optimistic again if not for Amos-6. So manifest is not a good predictor (duh ::) - and now it's getting very crowded).
However, they were launching consistently at about 12/year (when launching) in the last two years.

Assumption 2): Pads can support at least 12 launches/year and pad, constrained by payloads and production.

Assumption 3): Pads 39A and SLC-4E will be ready for launches at year start, while SLC-40 will be back around midyear.

Assumption 4): I'm an optimist and have to try and compensate as much as possible.

Assumptions 1-3) would give 26, but heavy application of 4) brings it down to 19 (somewhat arbitrary, but it's odd and 21 seemed to good to be true :P). This includes some combination of re-teething problems with SLC-40, FH/crew related activities hogging 39A and lack of stages making the east coast perform like one pad with a few extra. The break down is as follows:

4xDragons  (Hoping for DM-1 is obviously against 4)).
5xIridium from Vandenberg  (all on schedule is incompatible with 4), as is a general Q4 and a TBD. CONAE might surprise with SAOCOM-1A).
9 - Echostar 23 to SES-16 from the manifest.  (This is pad constrained, but corresponds more or less to H1. So much for changing approach...)
1 FH (violently disregarding 4), but I just can't help myself :) ).

This was fun! I expect to be about as accurate as if I had used the slightly quicker dart-over-shoulder method :).

Offline Tass

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #65 on: 12/27/2016 08:42 PM »
I have successively tried to calibrate to a bit more pessimism yet kept guessing one too high. I really hope this is the year I finally guessed way too low.

I went with nine again.

   

Online oiorionsbelt

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #66 on: 12/29/2016 04:53 AM »
Went with 12 for the last three years.
 14 this year.

Offline intrepidpursuit

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #67 on: 12/30/2016 04:46 AM »
I voted 11, same as last year. They are back in the same position; only 2 pads, have to squeeze in FH and work around CRS launches and an abort test. They have a big back log, but they did last year too and were on course for 11-12 launches.

I feel that this is pessimistic, but SpaceX has not demonstrated any ramp up in launch schedule outside of the 20-30 days they proved over a year ago. That together with unavoidable delays and limited pads equals less than a launch a month on average.

If they get LC-40 up and running again quickly and make use of both pads then maybe the'll hit 13-15.

And I'm using all odd numbers because equality.

Offline Proponent

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #68 on: 01/03/2017 02:59 PM »
Was on the verge of going for 11 but was then overcome by a wave of pessimism and have settled on 9.

Offline Tuts36

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #69 on: 01/03/2017 03:07 PM »
My purely intuitive pick is 17. 

Offline rsdavis9

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #70 on: 01/03/2017 03:15 PM »
Anyway to find out how I voted? I think my guess was 18. I didn't post anything when I voted.
With ELV best efficiency was the paradigm. The new paradigm is reusable, good enough, and commonality of design.
Same engines. Design once. Same vehicle. Design once. Reusable. Build once.

Offline Hauerg

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #71 on: 01/03/2017 03:22 PM »
Anyway to find out how I voted? I think my guess was 18. I didn't post anything when I voted.
Your choice should be in BOLD..
At least mine is.

Offline rsdavis9

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #72 on: 01/03/2017 03:43 PM »
Anyway to find out how I voted? I think my guess was 18. I didn't post anything when I voted.
Your choice should be in BOLD..
At least mine is.

Thanks. Mine is 18! I think 12 is once per month and 24 is 2 so halfway between. Thats as detailed as my logic goes.
With ELV best efficiency was the paradigm. The new paradigm is reusable, good enough, and commonality of design.
Same engines. Design once. Same vehicle. Design once. Reusable. Build once.

Online Johnnyhinbos

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #73 on: 01/03/2017 03:48 PM »
I went with 18 - I feel that's a high, but comfortable, cadence that won't over stress two launch sites and gives wiggle room for some slippages as well as some high profile activities such as FH. After all, if you look at the overall picture, the parts are all there and ready for this (or even higher) number of launches. And of course the manifest is there. So the only thing that would stop this high number would be another failure - and if that happens then SpaceX will be dealing with a much bigger issue...
John Hanzl. Author, action / adventure www.johnhanzl.com

Offline PerW

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #74 on: 01/04/2017 01:50 PM »
2015: 6, My guess was 8
2016: 7, My guess was 11
Today I guess 13 orbital flights for 2017, and I really hope that FH will be one of them.

But I would love if the below 2017 result would be true!

Also I did a long time prediction in mars 2016, a bit more optimistic then  ;):
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39777.msg1502642#msg1502642
2016: 15
2017: 20
2018: 35
2019: 33
2020: 40


Offline Doesitfloat

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #75 on: 01/05/2017 08:16 PM »
Well the old method of Spacex only launching prime numbers is not paying off anymore, time for a new equally insightful method.


The digit sum of 2017 and Falcon 9  => 2+0+1+7+9= 19

Offline jacqmans

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #76 on: 01/07/2017 08:45 AM »
6. They will have problems again....

Offline smoliarm

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #77 on: 01/07/2017 10:51 AM »
13
hope it's a lucky 13 ;)

BTW, something odd is going on in this poll: even numbers are not that dominant anymore :)

Offline zappatosin

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #78 on: 01/11/2017 01:22 AM »
11 because SpaceX isn't the only company in line for the Eastern and West ranges.  :D

I optimistically expect 0 ruds.

Hopefully SpaceX will static fire the heavy, but there will almost certainly be too many adjustments for the Heavy to launch in 2017.

As a SpaceX fan, I'm just now beginning to appreciate Blue Origin's motto.

Offline Lee Jay

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #79 on: 01/13/2017 02:44 PM »
http://www.wsj.com/articles/exclusive-peek-at-spacex-data-shows-loss-in-2015-heavy-expectations-for-nascent-internet-service-1484316455

"Mr. Musk targeted 27 launches for this year despite having never managed more than eight in a year. By 2019, he projected SpaceX will launch 52, or one a week, according to the documents."

Tags: range