Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2017?

None
0 (0%)
1
1 (0.3%)
2
1 (0.3%)
3
0 (0%)
4
0 (0%)
5
0 (0%)
6
5 (1.6%)
7
5 (1.6%)
8
8 (2.5%)
9
8 (2.5%)
10
24 (7.5%)
11
18 (5.6%)
12
45 (14.1%)
13
36 (11.3%)
14
24 (7.5%)
15
31 (9.7%)
16
25 (7.8%)
17
16 (5%)
18
26 (8.1%)
19
9 (2.8%)
20
14 (4.4%)
21-25
21 (6.6%)
26-30
2 (0.6%)
31-35
0 (0%)
more than 35 !!!!
1 (0.3%)

Total Members Voted: 320

Voting closed: 01/19/2017 06:46 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017  (Read 44303 times)

Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #260 on: 10/30/2017 07:43 PM »
With KoreaSat-5 as the 16th of the year, 206 out of 320 of us, 64%, me included, were, let's say, insufficiently optimistic.
With 3 more on the manifest before the end of the year, not including Heavy, there is a chance that the vast majority of us will have guessed low for the year.
That's quite interesting.
So much for being a bunch of fanboys and "the wisdom of the crowd."
It may also cause next year's guessing to be all over the map.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #261 on: 10/30/2017 08:08 PM »
If # 2017 IS    Insufficiently Optimistic voters
19                  85%
20                  88% if either FH or Hispasat launches
21                  93% if both FH and Hispasat launches

Don't count either of FH or Hispasat out just yet.
Information is showing up that SpaceX is trying to get FH launched by year end.

If CRS-13 goes on time there is enough time for LC-40 to do Hispasat in last week of Dec between XMas and New Year.

But even though it is possible, there are the unknowns that can push things out a week which would be enough to put both into 2018.

Offline david1971

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #262 on: 10/31/2017 05:17 AM »
I was looking for context on "how good" is 16 successful orbital launches in a year, so I went to Ed's site.

Years that Atlas had 16+ successful orbital launches (along with failures):
1962         16(3)
1964         18(3)
1965         19(5)
1966         33(3)

Thor/Delta:
1960     21(7)       
1961     23(7)       
1962     38(4)       
1963     29(5)       
1964     32(4)       
1965     33(2)       
1966     24(2)       
1967     28(0)     
1968     21(2)     
1969     22(2)         
1970     16(0)   

Long March 2/3/4
2011     19(1)
2012     19(0)
2015     17(0)
2016     19(2)

Of course, the Soviets had decade-long stretches where they would average better than a Soyuz a week (Proton maxed out at 14 in 2000).

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #263 on: 10/31/2017 12:45 PM »
SpaceNews comparison of 16 launches with commercial SpaceX competitors (ULA, Arianespace, Proton):

http://spacenews.com/spacex-ties-ulas-annual-launch-record-with-16th-launch-this-year/

Article says most ULA launches in a year (2009) was also 16, whereas Arianespace max is 12 and Proton 14 (whilst acknowledging that Ariane launches are typically dual).

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #264 on: 12/02/2017 12:06 AM »
I was hoping my choice of 18 would end up being pessimistic in these last few months. However, with FH now in January and Zuma possibly slipping to 2018 as well, 18 could be the number!

Offline gongora

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #265 on: 12/04/2017 10:00 PM »
I looked up our SpaceX manifest on the Internet Archive from right after the AMOS-6 accident:
https://web.archive.org/web/20160909231054/http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.0

Quote
Cape flights for the rest of 2016 changed to TBD pending AMOS-6 anomaly resolution
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2016-09-20  F9(30)       JRTI        Iridium NEXT (Flight 1) [10]  PLR  800x10  LC4E
2016-10     F9           RTLS        Formosat-5 & [13]             SSO  525+    LC4E
                                     Sherpa SSO [14]               
2016-12     F9           RTLS        Iridium NEXT (Flight 2)       PLR  800x10  LC4E
2016-12     FHeavy                   Falcon Heavy Demo Flight                   LC39A
TBD         F9           OCISLY      Echostar 23 [11]              GTO  ~5500   LC40
TBD         F9(23-1)     OCISLY      SES-10 [12]                   GTO  5300    LC40
TBD         F9           OCISLY      SES-11/Echostar 105 [15]      GTO  5400    LC40
TBD         F9           RTLS        Dragon (CRS-10)  [16]         LEO  10000   LC40
2017-01     F9           OCISLY      Intelsat 35e                  GTO          LC40       
2017-01     F9           OCISLY      BulgariaSat-1                 GTO  ~5500   LC40
2017-02-01  F9           RTLS        Dragon (CRS-11)               LEO  10000   LC40
2017-02     F9           RTLS        Iridium NEXT (Flight 3)       PLR  800x10  LC4E       
2017-03     FHeavy                   US Air Force (STP-2)          MEO          LC39A
2017-03     F9           OCISLY      NROL-76                                    LC40
2017-04     F9                       Iridium NEXT (Flight 4)       PLR  800x10  LC4E
2017-05-12  F9           RTLS        CCTCAP DM1                    LEO  TBD     LC39A
2017-06-01  F9           RTLS        Dragon (CRS-12)               LEO  10000   LC40
2017-06     F9                       Iridium NEXT (Flight 5)       PLR  800x10  LC4E
2017-06     F9                       CCTCAP In-Flgt Abrt Test                   LC39A
2017-06     F9                       SES-16/GovSat                 GTO  4000    LC39A
2017-06     FHeavy                   EuropaSat/Hellas-Sat 3        GTO  5900    LC39A
2017-06     F9                       PSN VI  + US Govt             GTO  5000    LC40
2017-08     F9                       GRACE-FO                      SSO  580x2   LC4E
2017-08     F9                       Iridium NEXT (Flight 6)       PLR  800x10  LC4E
2017-08-24  F9                       CREW Dragon (with Crew)                    LC39A
2017-09     F9           OCISLY      Es�hail 2                     GTO  5300    LC40
2017-09     F9                       Dragon (CRS-13)               LEO  10000   LC40
2017-10     F9                       2017 Sun Synch Express        SSO          LC4E
2017-10     F9                       Iridium NEXT (Flight 7)       PLR  800x10  LC4E
2017-10     F9                       SAOCOM 1A                     SSO  3000    LC4E
2017-10     F9                       SES-14 / GOLD                 GTO  4200    LC40
2017-12     F9                       Hispasat 1f or Amazonas5      GTO  ~5000   LC40
2017-12     F9                       NASA (TESS)                   HEO  325     LC40
2018-02     F9                       Dragon (CRS-14)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018-04     F9                       Dragon (CRS-15)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018-05     FHeavy                   Red Dragon (Mars Surface)     TMI  11000   LC39A
2018-05     F9                       USAF GPS III A-2              MEO  3680    LC40
2018-08     F9                       Dragon (CRS-16)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018-10     F9                       Dragon (CRS-17)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018-12     F9                       Dragon (CRS-18)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018        F9                       Telstar 18 Vantage /          GTO          ?
                                     Apstar-5C
2018        F9                       Telstar 19 Vantage            GTO          ?
2018        FHeavy                   Arabsat 6A                    GTO          LC39A
2018        F9                       RADARSAT Constellation        SSO  1400    LC4E
2018        F9                       SAOCOM 1B                     SSO  3000    LC4E
2018        F9                       OHB SARah 1                   SSO  ~2100   LC4E
2018        F9                       EutelSat-Quantum              GTO  ~3500   LC40
2019-05     F9                       Dragon (CRS-19)               LEO  10000   LC40
2019        F9                       CREW Dragon (with Crew)                    LC39A
2019        F9                       CREW Dragon (with Crew)                    LC39A
2019        F9                       Dragon (CRS-20)               LEO  10000   LC40
2019        F9                       OHB SARah 2/3                 SSO  ~1800x2 LC4E
2020        FHeavy                   ViaSat 3 Americas             GTO  6400    LC39A
2020        FHeavy                   ViaSat 3 EMEA                 GTO  6400    LC39A
2020-05     TBD                      Red Dragon-2 (Mars Surface)
2020-06     TBD                      Red Dragon-3 (Mars Surface)
2022-08     TBD                      Mars Colonial Transporter (MCT)
2024-09     TBD                      Red Dragon-5 (Mars Surface)
2026-11     TBD                      Red Dragon-6 (Mars Surface)
2029-01     TBD                      Red Dragon-7 (Mars Surface)
TBD         F9           OCISLY      Koreasat 5A                   GTO  3500    LC40
TBD         F9                       ABS-8                         GTO          LC40
TBD         FHeavy                   INTELSAT                      GTO  5900    LC39A
TBD         F9                       Bigelow Aerospace                          LC40
TBD         F9                       DragonLab (Mission 1)                      LC39A
TBD         F9                       DragonLab (Mission 2)                      LC39A

We had 33 missions on the manifest from that date through the end of 2017.  Of those, at least 8 slipped to 2018 through program delays (Falcon Heavy x2, Commercial Crew x3) or delays with the payload (SAOCOM 1A, TESS?, SSO-A).  1 (Europasat) left for another launch provider, 1 (SES-14) was swapped for another payload from the same provider, and 2 more were added in 2017 (OTV-5 and Zuma).  It's possible a couple more of the GTO birds aren't ready yet, it's hard to tell with those.


Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #266 on: 12/04/2017 10:36 PM »
Gang, I will be setting up next year's poll but will be a bit late, my apologies. Trust me it will get done but you may have a bit less than the usual 30 days to get your votes in. I have it created but haven't edited in all the manifest stuff yet. (bad internet connections here in Indonesia plus too much having fun offline)  There are, as promised, 42 choices.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #267 on: 12/04/2017 10:37 PM »
Suggest two polls on topic for 2018...

1) number of SpaceX launches in 2018...
 (already discussed (1-35), Lar said he would start it later (in Dec?))

2) percentage of 2018 flights that go on 'flight proven" cores...
(should discuss block size... 5% blocks?... 0.5.10,15,) or what makes sense)

To me, this makes the most sense... as 2 relates to 1 in many ways...  :)
I think I'll do a numeric for this rather than percentage. I will work on it.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #268 on: 12/04/2017 10:46 PM »
Thanks gongora.

Other facts to round out the analysis:

* 7 flights scheduled as 2017 have launched
* all 7 remaining flights scheduled as 2016 have flown in 2017 (excepting FH demo)
* 2 more flights scheduled for 2017 are expected to launch in Dec (Iridium 4; CRS-13)
* 8 other flights scheduled for 2017 are pushed into 2018 (setting aside the flights that are Gongora counted as payload delayed). These are GovSat, Iridium 5-7; GRACE FO, Hispasat, PSN, Es'hail 2.

There were 14 flights on the manifest for 2018 at the time of Amos-6 incident.
* 2 have been removed from the current manifest (Red Dragon and Eutelsat Quantum)
* 1 has moved to 2019 (SOACOM B) and 1 is questionable for 2018 (USAF GPS III A-2)
* The remaining 10 are still on the current manifest for 2018, including 5 CRS flights (14-18)

2 additional flights for 2018 have been added since Amos 6
* 1 originally planned for 2017 (Bangabandhu)
* 1 planned for 2018 (Spaceflight GTO)


So, to catch up on the manifest backlog due to Amos-6, SpaceX needs to launch at least 10 (Spacex delayed; 8 + Zuma & Bangabandhu) + 8 (payload delayed) + 11 (scheduled 2018) = 29 flights* in 2018.

*30 if you count USAF GPS III A-2 as 2018

Sounds like SpaceX thinks it can get caught up on the manifest backlog in 2018 with 30 flights.

« Last Edit: 12/04/2017 10:50 PM by rockets4life97 »

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #269 on: 12/04/2017 10:57 PM »
PM me if you DO NOT want your post moved to the 2018 thread when it's public (gongora #265 Rockets4life #268, any other 2018 speculation posts that might follow)... these are useful there.

(Edit: actually, I will just quote them)
« Last Edit: 12/07/2017 05:22 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #270 on: 12/07/2017 03:01 PM »
Those that voted 18 looks to have hit the jackpot. As long as CRS-13 is ok and no processing problems with Irridium -4 then the total for 2017 will be 18.

Offline spacenut

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #271 on: 12/07/2017 03:34 PM »
I voted 12, but was hoping they got 20.  18 is good.  Hope they get at least 25 next year. 

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