Author Topic: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan  (Read 305005 times)

Offline Chasm

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #140 on: 09/12/2016 11:07 PM »
Does anybody else see a jarring contrast between going straight from the New Shepard to a New Glenn and Bezos' motto 'Gradatim Ferociter'? - Nothing gradual about such a jump from a glorified bottle rocket to a huge LV, reusable no less. It looks to me like a technological jump that will be almost impossible to pull off. The SpaceX quick prototyping and constant evolution approach seems to me much more grounded in reality.

Looks like this particular tortoise is a secret hedgehog.
Jacob and Wilhelm Grimm - Grimm's Fairy Tales No.187 - The Hare and the Hedgehog

I like it. Certainly fits the original Very Big Brother moinker.
Jeff talked quite a bit about scaling vertical landing in his talks, that landing larger rockets get easier. (Other than size.) 7 engines, so likely 1 in the center with excessive gimbal range. Will we see a repeat of the 1st NS landing? Would be fun.
If you reuse the first stage putting as much energy into it as possible also makes sense. More inefficiency is just fuel cost.

Much different than Vulcan, so no complaints from ULA. I suspect that ULA knew quite a bit about the BO plans before inking their BE-4 contract. Not that ULA had much of a choice, to me it seemed that US politicans were hell bent on replacing the ULA monopoly with a SpaceX monopoly ASAP. BO going public by offering the BE-4 must have been a most interesting day in the offices of all the usual suspects.
Very interesting that BO seems to sell their engines to everyone that does not run away fast enough while SpaceX does not longer offer them.

Excessive launch weight plays into something else Tory said more than once about BO and their ideas several times. Hinting, as I heard it, at SSTO.
So... What if you take the 2nd stage off NGL and put the capsule (+service module) directly on it. Different launch profile, more fuel for breaking. But that is just fuel. And Jeff explicitly, mentioned in just about every single talk,  builds rockets where fuel cost will matter.

Possible to go ISS with such a contraption or just mad BS? You tell me. :)

Offline Brovane

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #141 on: 09/12/2016 11:59 PM »
He didn't get a net worth of $66.3 billion by having terrible business sense.

What Musk and Bezos are doing isn't about increasing their net-worth.  This is the part that scares the pants off the traditional aerospace companies that service US space launch.   
"Look at that! If anybody ever said, "you'll be sitting in a spacecraft naked with a 134-pound backpack on your knees charging it", I'd have said "Aw, get serious". - John Young - Apollo-16

Offline LaunchedIn68

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #142 on: 09/13/2016 12:03 AM »


In my dream reality, this will free up NASA to stop being a launch vehicle manufacturer,

NASA isn't a launch vehicle manufacturer.

Right, Boeing builds the core stage, Orbital ATK builds the boosters and ULA builds the ICPS. NASA operates the vehicle similar to how the airforce operates a fighter jet. They don't manufacture fighter jets.

Apples and Oranges.  The Air Force operates fighter jets to deliver weapons on target to achieve political goals as their mission.  But, they also need a fleet of tankers to service that mission.  They had a requirement for a new one, the KC46A and had the options to select from Airbus or Boeing existing airframes.

What if politicians insisted the USAF put out the contract for the KC-46 as a new design from the ground up?  Would that benefit the taxpayers?
"I want to build a spaceship, go to the moon, salvage all the junk that's up there, bring it back, sell it." - Harry Broderick

Offline savuporo

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #143 on: 09/13/2016 12:10 AM »
By the way, today is a significant day in space history, 54 years ago

Also, "To be sure, we are behind. And will be behind for some time. But we do not intend to stay behind, and in this decade, we shall make up, and move ahead"
« Last Edit: 09/13/2016 12:25 AM by savuporo »
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Online catdlr

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #144 on: 09/13/2016 12:16 AM »
By the way, today is a significant day in space history, 54 years ago

Yes, "We choose to go to the Moon"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6z-h6faR6o?t=001

« Last Edit: 09/13/2016 12:18 AM by catdlr »
Tony De La Rosa

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #145 on: 09/13/2016 01:10 AM »
Also, ULA wont license IVF to a direct competitor that would put them out of business, and Blue Origin already mentioned they want to leave DoD payloads to ULA (frees them to do what they want with the rocket)


This is one of the things that bug me a bit. Scenario goes something like this:
Jeff: "Hey Tory, we want to bid on the x project. I'd like to use an ACES for that launch, NGL configuration, all ground support and z weeks of on orbit operation by your team. How much? Sounds about right, let's put it in writing. [...] You may want to buy on orbit refueling on the same date? What a coincidence. Yeah, we can have that many tons in place. Same flat rate price as always for everyone, we'll send you the official offer with guaranteed availability."


Or in other words, why do everything yourself if you could sub out whole parts? Especially if they are complicated and require heaps of experience. Yes, the holy vertical integration.
Reimagining distributed launch on a single stick. BO to orbit, ULA to destination.

Interesting times.
IMHO NG may benefit ULA. Blue is targetting HSF to both LEO and eventually moon, not DOD missions. NG will give ULA cheap (<$2000/kg) fuel it needs for distributed launch. A sortie could be something like this.
Launch 1). NG delivers fuel to LEO
2) Vulcan launches a few days later, delivers ACES with full external tank of fuel
ACES refuels from NG and delivers fuel to DSH for lander
3) NG deliver crew direct to DSH
4) ULA lander takes crew to moon and back.
5) crew return in Blue capsule.

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Offline baldusi

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #146 on: 09/13/2016 02:34 AM »
Alan Shepard flew the first suborbital flight ==> New Shepard suborbital reusable rocket

John Glenn flew the first orbital flight ==> New Glenn orbital reusable rocket

Neil Armstrong was first man on the Moon ==> New Armstrong reusable Moon rocket??


What name does Bezos have planned for the moonbase?

Technically, first crewed flight to the Moon was Apollo 8.
« Last Edit: 09/13/2016 02:34 AM by baldusi »

Offline rayleighscatter

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #147 on: 09/13/2016 02:49 AM »
He didn't get a net worth of $66.3 billion by having terrible business sense.

What Musk and Bezos are doing isn't about increasing their net-worth.  This is the part that scares the pants off the traditional aerospace companies that service US space launch.   

Just look back at how many airlines TWA buried under Howard Hughes. It's easy to be competitive and drive opponents out of the same space when you aren't afraid to throw money down a hole.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #148 on: 09/13/2016 02:51 AM »
Eric Berger's write-up of today's announcement: http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/09/did-the-fourth-richest-human-just-tease-plans-to-colonize-the-moon/

No additional info on the rockets but puts things into context and talks about Jeff Bezos' ambitions.

Offline Kabloona

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #149 on: 09/13/2016 02:59 AM »
Does anybody else feel that the booster is a bit big for the second stage? Does this indicate that they will stage at higher velocities/ altitudes than F9 does? Generally the rocket seems mighty big for the intended use.

Scaling off their graphic, it does look like the length ratios of S1/S2 are different for NG vs. F9, with that ratio being larger on NG.

Probably will stage at higher velocity since the booster is expected to land almost twice as far downrange as F9's. As for the relative size of booster vs. S2, the economics of recoverability favor making the booster bigger and S2 smaller, so you recover more of the vehicle.
« Last Edit: 09/13/2016 03:49 AM by Kabloona »

Offline Oli

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #150 on: 09/13/2016 03:03 AM »
How about building a viable business with suborbital tourism first? How about progressing to orbital tourism with a very reliable medium-sized launcher? Where are the 50t capsules or other payloads waiting to be launched on New Glenn?

At this point I just cannot take it seriously anymore.

What if the next three decades are not the same as the last three(1980-2010)*?
If that is even a remote possibility, it's too soon to check out... the party is just beginning.

*I can fully understand your skepticism if this is your basis.

15 years ago people thought suborbital tourism is just around the corner. To date not a single tourist has flown.
Today people think private manned missions to Mars are less than 10 years away. There's indeed a party and people are super drunk.

But anyway, if Bezos wants to build this rocket that is great. In combination with FH it would make SLS truly obsolete. The question is whether NASA (or anyone else) will have demand for it.

Offline savuporo

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #151 on: 09/13/2016 03:09 AM »
15 years ago people thought suborbital tourism is just around the corner. To date not a single tourist has flown.

Yeah. Even going back just a year ago.

http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-plans-to-begin-commercial-suborbital-research-flights-in-2016/
Quote
Blue Origin expects to start launching commercial payloads on its New Shepard suborbital vehicle by the middle of next year, hoping to reinvigorate interest in flying experiments on such vehicles, a company official said Nov. 10
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Offline QuantumG

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #152 on: 09/13/2016 03:11 AM »
Wow, I'm agreeing with Oli. The ADHD of Blue Origin seems set to exceed that of SpaceX. What have these guys got against actually making a profit? That's how you grow a business.

Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline Kabloona

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #153 on: 09/13/2016 03:20 AM »
Wow, I'm agreeing with Oli. The ADHD of Blue Origin seems set to exceed that of SpaceX. What have these guys got against actually making a profit? That's how you grow a business.

Apparently Bezos has decided to jump into the deep end of the pool and spend the few billions (?), which he can well afford, that it will take to develop New Glenn and associated infrastructure without needing to make a profit for a relatively long time.

The only two commodities required are time and money. Bezos has plenty of money, but only a finite number of years left in his lifetime, and it looks like he wants to go big ASAP. Optimizing on time instead of $$.

If you want a giant tree now and can afford to buy one, you don't need to plant a seed and wait for it to grow.
« Last Edit: 09/13/2016 03:53 AM by Kabloona »

Online Coastal Ron

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #154 on: 09/13/2016 03:26 AM »
Wow, I'm agreeing with Oli. The ADHD of Blue Origin seems set to exceed that of SpaceX. What have these guys got against actually making a profit? That's how you grow a business.

Bezos is not building a business per se, but enabling his vision of the future.  When you're a multi-billionaire the rules are different...
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #155 on: 09/13/2016 03:34 AM »
Wow, I'm agreeing with Oli. The ADHD of Blue Origin seems set to exceed that of SpaceX. What have these guys got against actually making a profit? That's how you grow a business.
Or make the other players in the market go belly up by undercutting them in price. IMO you don't need a profit to grow a business if you grab most of the market share. Somewhat like Amazon online.
« Last Edit: 09/14/2016 03:11 AM by Zed_Noir »

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #156 on: 09/13/2016 03:52 AM »
Wow, I'm agreeing with Oli. The ADHD of Blue Origin seems set to exceed that of SpaceX. What have these guys got against actually making a profit? That's how you grow a business.
With most businesses generating revenue as early as possible is essential to keep investors happy. In case of LVs this normally means a compromise between the ideal LV and something that just gets job done. Firefly have already had to compromise, their low operating cost but hard to design methane engine has been replaced with simpler higher operational cost RP1.

SpaceX also had same compromises with F9.

Bezo has rare luxury of having time and money to do a RLV right first time. A reusable 2nd stage would be nice but expendable 2nd stage is not necessarily a compromise as both versions maybe needed depending on mission.

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Offline Oli

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #157 on: 09/13/2016 03:55 AM »
I think an expendable 3-stage Glenn would more or less match SLS Block 1 performance. ~70t to LEO and ~25t to TLI.

Online Helodriver

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #158 on: 09/13/2016 04:04 AM »
Panoramic views of the Blue Origin factory, taken today, the day of the announcement. Its literally a muddy hole in the ground, but three months ago it was a scrub palm forest, so progress...

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #159 on: 09/13/2016 04:05 AM »
Or make the other players in the market go belly up by undercutting them in price. IMO you don't need a profit to to grow a business if you grab most of the market share. Somewhat like Amazon online.

He's not that rich. Without cost reductions he could barely afford a moonshot. The entire current market share for launch is insufficient to fund his long term dreams. The only way to get humanity into space is to create new markets, which is the whole point of space tourism (see also, asteroid mining). There's no point getting into the existing launch market - just focus on flying, reusing and reducing costs so the curve bends up and spaceflight finally stops being rare, risky and reserved for the few government employees. Suborbital tourism has the potential to change the way we look at spaceflight, such that private space stations in LEO with permanent staff doing real research on new products, construction and repair of satellites, recreation and industrial processing of in-space materials gets past the giggle factor.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

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