Author Topic: Why doesn't Angara ever launch?  (Read 10894 times)

Offline Arcas

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Why doesn't Angara ever launch?
« on: 05/30/2016 01:56 AM »
There were two launches in 2014 of their brand new rocket, and they haven't launched in a year and a half since. Does anyone know the reason for this?
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Offline Nicolas PILLET

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Re: Why doesn't Angara ever launch?
« Reply #1 on: 05/30/2016 04:16 AM »
At the time the second Angara lifted off, assembly of the third one had not yet began.
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Offline fregate

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Re: Why doesn't Angara ever launch?
« Reply #2 on: 05/30/2016 05:19 AM »
There were two launches in 2014 of their brand new rocket, and they haven't launched in a year and a half since. Does anyone know the reason for this?
They are moving LV stages production from Moscow (Khrunichev Center, Moscow) to Omsk (PO Polyot). Takes time :(
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Offline rocx

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Re: Why doesn't Angara ever launch?
« Reply #3 on: 05/30/2016 08:32 AM »
It probably has something to do with this..
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Offline gospacex

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Re: Why doesn't Angara ever launch?
« Reply #4 on: 05/30/2016 09:22 AM »
There were two launches in 2014 of their brand new rocket, and they haven't launched in a year and a half since. Does anyone know the reason for this?

Angara costs more than Proton.

Offline baldusi

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Re: Why doesn't Angara ever launch?
« Reply #5 on: 05/30/2016 12:30 PM »
There were two launches in 2014 of their brand new rocket, and they haven't launched in a year and a half since. Does anyone know the reason for this?

Angara costs more than Proton.
That is at first, since they did it mostly manually in Moscow and are moving to a highly automated factory in Omsk. Of course that having the company basically broke doesn't help.

Offline gospacex

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Re: Why doesn't Angara ever launch?
« Reply #6 on: 05/30/2016 12:42 PM »
More info can be gleaned from russian space forums, for example, this thread:

http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/forum/forum13/topic14980/?PAGEN_1=338

Latest news is that their top management tries to perform one launch this year in December; people from industry doubt this can be done.
« Last Edit: 05/30/2016 12:46 PM by gospacex »

Offline Nicolas PILLET

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Re: Why doesn't Angara ever launch?
« Reply #7 on: 05/30/2016 05:43 PM »
It probably has something to do with this..
*

No, it has nothing to do with this. The second launch of Angara is not postponed. It has always been scheduled for the end of 2016 or the beginning of 2017. If you launch an Atlas 5 or an Ariane 5 without any other in assembly at the moment of the launch, you will also wait for two years the following liftoff !

And the fact that there was no Angara in assembly at the moment of the 2014's launch is not the consequence of some economical problems. It is a strategy which has been decided long before the first launch.
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Offline baldusi

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Re: Why doesn't Angara ever launch?
« Reply #8 on: 05/30/2016 10:24 PM »
Outfitting Omsk given the financial strain of Khrunichev must have brought some difficulties.

Offline gospacex

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Re: Why doesn't Angara ever launch?
« Reply #9 on: 05/30/2016 11:48 PM »
There were two launches in 2014 of their brand new rocket, and they haven't launched in a year and a half since. Does anyone know the reason for this?

Angara costs more than Proton.
That is at first, since they did it mostly manually in Moscow and are moving to a highly automated factory in Omsk. Of course that having the company basically broke doesn't help.

Having highly automated factory doesn't help one iota when you have no orders.

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: Why doesn't Angara ever launch?
« Reply #10 on: 05/31/2016 01:30 AM »
There were two launches in 2014 of their brand new rocket, and they haven't launched in a year and a half since. Does anyone know the reason for this?

Angara costs more than Proton.
That is at first, since they did it mostly manually in Moscow and are moving to a highly automated factory in Omsk. Of course that having the company basically broke doesn't help.

Having highly automated factory doesn't help one iota when you have no orders.
Orders have been placed. Look at the Russian Launch Schedule. Also keep in mind that the Angara Family is still solely in the testing and certification phase.

Offline gospacex

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Re: Why doesn't Angara ever launch?
« Reply #11 on: 05/31/2016 09:31 AM »
There were two launches in 2014 of their brand new rocket, and they haven't launched in a year and a half since. Does anyone know the reason for this?

Angara costs more than Proton.
That is at first, since they did it mostly manually in Moscow and are moving to a highly automated factory in Omsk. Of course that having the company basically broke doesn't help.

Having highly automated factory doesn't help one iota when you have no orders.
Orders have been placed. Look at the Russian Launch Schedule. Also keep in mind that the Angara Family is still solely in the testing and certification phase.

Two or three launches in 2017, none in 2018, and one in 2019? Among them only one is not a Russian govt launch? That's basically nothing.

Offline baldusi

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Re: Why doesn't Angara ever launch?
« Reply #12 on: 05/31/2016 12:19 PM »
There were two launches in 2014 of their brand new rocket, and they haven't launched in a year and a half since. Does anyone know the reason for this?

Angara costs more than Proton.
That is at first, since they did it mostly manually in Moscow and are moving to a highly automated factory in Omsk. Of course that having the company basically broke doesn't help.

Having highly automated factory doesn't help one iota when you have no orders.
Orders have been placed. Look at the Russian Launch Schedule. Also keep in mind that the Angara Family is still solely in the testing and certification phase.

Two or three launches in 2017, none in 2018, and one in 2019? Among them only one is not a Russian govt launch? That's basically nothing.
IOC is expected for 2020. Before that is just part of the Russian development process. They have validated the Angara-5 design. Now they have to validate the Angara-1.2 (the 1PP used the A5 upper stage). After that they have to apply the new manufacturing methods of the PO Polyot factory, like FSW. And then they usually take something like 10 flights to consider a LV commissioned. That's how they do it and it has worked for them.

Offline gospacex

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Re: Why doesn't Angara ever launch?
« Reply #13 on: 05/31/2016 12:49 PM »
You are not addressing my point: Angara has almost no orders now, and will have rather low chances of getting new orders in 2020+. Of course, Russian govt payloads will fly on Russian LVs. But hardly anything else. Under these conditions, Angara will stay more expensive than today's Proton.
« Last Edit: 05/31/2016 12:50 PM by gospacex »

Offline Star One

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Why doesn't Angara ever launch?
« Reply #14 on: 05/31/2016 03:43 PM »
You are not addressing my point: Angara has almost no orders now, and will have rather low chances of getting new orders in 2020+. Of course, Russian govt payloads will fly on Russian LVs. But hardly anything else. Under these conditions, Angara will stay more expensive than today's Proton.

And you don't seem to be listening to what people have already explained to you in this thread about the reasons for the low launching rate.
« Last Edit: 05/31/2016 03:45 PM by Star One »

Offline Lar

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Re: Why doesn't Angara ever launch?
« Reply #15 on: 05/31/2016 04:23 PM »
Be excellent to each other, participants should try to carefully read and understand what the other person is saying, and explain why they think someone's off the mark, rather than accusing each other of not listening.

What I hear is someone saying the low launch rate means the development process might be drawn out, and the cost won't come down as much as might be desired, while someone else is saying that the low launch rate doesn't mean that development isn't happening at all, it's just a process that isn't as fast as some folks not familiar with Russian practices might expect.

Is that correct?
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Offline Star One

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Re: Why doesn't Angara ever launch?
« Reply #16 on: 05/31/2016 04:26 PM »
Be excellent to each other, participants should try to carefully read and understand what the other person is saying, and explain why they think someone's off the mark, rather than accusing each other of not listening.

What I hear is someone saying the low launch rate means the development process might be drawn out, and the cost won't come down as much as might be desired, while someone else is saying that the low launch rate doesn't mean that development isn't happening at all, it's just a process that isn't as fast as some folks not familiar with Russian practices might expect.

Is that correct?

The latter that things are happening at their own pace is the way I read it, after all it is a major change, and overtly negative connotations shouldn't be read into this at this point in time.

Offline baldusi

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Re: Why doesn't Angara ever launch?
« Reply #17 on: 05/31/2016 05:15 PM »
You are not addressing my point: Angara has almost no orders now, and will have rather low chances of getting new orders in 2020+. Of course, Russian govt payloads will fly on Russian LVs. But hardly anything else. Under these conditions, Angara will stay more expensive than today's Proton.
I will explain the whole situation. It is in development, thus, it's not the LV of choice for the Russian government nor for the commercial company of Khrnuchev (ILS). They might be trying to sell one flight in 2019 or 2020. But commercial flights are usually bought at L-24 months or so. So we won't start seeing commercial orders until 2018 o later. For the same reason, all operative Russian programs (civil comms, military, GLONASS, even ISS) use Proton since Angara is still "in development".
What's more, Angara-5 really needs the Voistochny launch pad to compete. And that won't be available until 2020, at the earliest.
When they have the Eastern pad and start offering at the commercial market, and the Russian government uses it for heavy launches, then it will ramp up production. Not until then. And just the government work would mean five to six launches per year for the heavy version. The light version will probably see a couple extra of launches. But that's all post 2020 and it is too far in the future to have a realistic manifest.
Russian officials have been very clear in the fact that currently an Angara-5 costs three times more than a Proton. If they start launching from Voistochny, use the more efficient factory at Omsk and start moving all launches to it, it will be, in fact cheaper than Proton. But that won't happen until 2020 at the earliest.
« Last Edit: 05/31/2016 05:18 PM by baldusi »

Offline Nicolas PILLET

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Re: Why doesn't Angara ever launch?
« Reply #18 on: 05/31/2016 05:43 PM »
it's not the LV of choice for the Russian government nor for the commercial company of Khrnuchev (ILS).

As for now, ILS has rights to sell only Angara-1.2 launch vehicles, not Angara-A5.
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Offline gospacex

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Re: Why doesn't Angara ever launch?
« Reply #19 on: 05/31/2016 09:53 PM »
When they have the Eastern pad and start offering at the commercial market, and the Russian government uses it for heavy launches, then it will ramp up production. Not until then. And just the government work would mean five to six launches per year for the heavy version. The light version will probably see a couple extra of launches. But that's all post 2020 and it is too far in the future to have a realistic manifest.
Russian officials have been very clear in the fact that currently an Angara-5 costs three times more than a Proton. If they start launching from Voistochny, use the more efficient factory at Omsk and start moving all launches to it, it will be, in fact cheaper than Proton.

Last couple of years, Proton was launching 8-12 times per year.

Let's assume you are right about eventual launch rate of Angara. Five to six launches per year for the heavy (five boosters per launch). A couple extra of launches for light version. IOW: it will have hard time even reaching Proton todays' launch rate, while using more tankage and more expensive engines.

How it can possibly become cheaper than Proton, not now, not in 2020, but ever?
« Last Edit: 05/31/2016 09:53 PM by gospacex »

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