Author Topic: North Korea missiles  (Read 79494 times)

Offline Danderman

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Re: North Korea missiles
« Reply #440 on: 12/03/2017 10:49 PM »
How does NK monitor the final seconds of flight of these tests? Read newspapers from the West?
In addition to nuclear weapons and ICBM class rockets, DPRK is known to posses ships and aircraft.


You are suggesting that deployment of certain ships or aircraft would be indications of an impending launch. That's good to know.

Online wolfpack

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Re: North Korea missiles
« Reply #441 on: 12/04/2017 03:25 PM »
If he's crazy enough to attempt this Juche Bird test, what trajectory is it likely to fly and where would the IP be? And the global response to an above-ground, thermonuclear detonation?

Any real launch towards CONUS has to overfly China and Russia. How can those two nations possibly be OK with that?

Do we really think DPRK has FOBS capability? IIRC, they couldn't even deploy their last "satellite" properly.

Offline hop

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Re: North Korea missiles
« Reply #442 on: 12/04/2017 05:42 PM »
You are suggesting that deployment of certain ships or aircraft would be indications of an impending launch. That's good to know.
FWIW, this is just my speculation as to some ways they could do it, I have no information on whether they do. The main point is that this program is a major national priority and it would be really dumb to do RV tests without collecting data, so the safe assumption is they are set up to collect the data they need.

There have been reports that the IC knew about most of the recent tests in advance. These have generally been attributed to activity around the test site, but tracking assets could certainly be an indicator. OTOH, depending on the exact requirements they might not need anything particularly visible.

Re: North Korea missiles
« Reply #443 on: 12/05/2017 12:59 AM »

Offline Danderman

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Re: North Korea missiles
« Reply #444 on: 12/06/2017 07:27 AM »
Hwasong-15 F-22 tech level http://mengnews.joins.com/view.aspx?aid=3041606

The author of the article does not seem to know much about missile technology.

Re: North Korea missiles
« Reply #445 on: 12/06/2017 04:42 PM »
The Hwasong-15: The Anatomy of North Korea's New ICBM

https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/the-hwasong-15-the-anatomy-of-north-koreas-new-icbm/
Must read!!

Re: North Korea missiles
« Reply #446 on: 12/07/2017 02:57 PM »
The Hwasong-15: The Anatomy of North Korea's New ICBM

https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/the-hwasong-15-the-anatomy-of-north-koreas-new-icbm/
Must read!!
I've read the moment it was released.

Two more successful tests of this missile and you can have a safe bet that if they were to build SS-18 Satan/R-36M class heavy ICBM that it would work on first test and SLV variant would put several ton payload into space.

The author of the article does not seem to know much about missile technology.
The person who said that isn't the author of the article also having single turbopump as evident by single exhaust pipe and have two combustors individualy gimballed is achievement comparable to RD-180 in terms of single turbopump engine with gimballed combustors.

Though would it be more correct to say F-35?
« Last Edit: 12/07/2017 04:43 PM by VernierLover »

Re: North Korea missiles
« Reply #447 on: 12/08/2017 06:03 AM »
Reentry of North Korea’s Hwasong-15 Missile

http://allthingsnuclear.org/dwright/reentry-of-hwasong-15


Re: North Korea missiles
« Reply #448 on: 12/08/2017 02:02 PM »
https://mobile.twitter.com/nknewsorg/status/939061056709808128?p=v

More satelites launches, they plan to place in near future over 1000kg satelite into GSO/GEO which would require space launch vehicle larger and more powerful than Tsyklon, Delta or Atlas series.

Before that earth observation satellite over 100kg with resolution of several meters, more than two less than 10 meters if I had to guess. Good enough to spot/track aircraft carrier like Ronald Reagan.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Ronald_Reagan

This 256 by 256 pixel image should give us a rough idea at amount of detail they could see:



They will have no problem knowing exactly where it is while inside FOV of the satellite.

Offline Danderman

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Re: North Korea missiles
« Reply #449 on: 12/11/2017 03:20 AM »
HS-15 is about 50 percent of a Cosmos-3 class launcher, so it would be limited to payloads to low orbit of 500 - 700 kg. Most recon birds go to very high inclination orbits, and that reduces payload further.

Right now, NK has problems just getting a small satellite to work, let alone a sophisticated recon sat.

As always, I am talking about near term, not in that future where we are all living on Mars, and NK has an SS-18 class ICBM.
« Last Edit: 12/11/2017 03:21 AM by Danderman »

Re: North Korea missiles
« Reply #450 on: 12/11/2017 01:37 PM »
HS-15 is about 50 percent of a Cosmos-3 class launcher, so it would be limited to payloads to low orbit of 500 - 700 kg. Most recon birds go to very high inclination orbits, and that reduces payload further.

If Kwangmyongsong 3-2 and 4 orbit is the targed then at minimum 250 kg so 50 more than 4 and 150 more than 3-2.

Quote
Right now, NK has problems just getting a small satellite to work, let alone a sophisticated recon sat.

http://special.tass.ru/politika/2688450

http://www.zarya.info/Diaries/NKorea/Kwangmyongsong4ndot2.php

http://www.northkoreatech.org/2016/03/03/north-koreas-satellite-caught-on-camera/

http://m.yna.co.kr/mob2/en/contents_en.jsp?cid=AEN20170510009000315&site=0400000000&mobile
What problem? It works and spatial resolution is good enough to spot aircraft carrier.

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As always, I am talking about near term, not in that future where we are all living on Mars, and NK has an SS-18 class ICBM.

It is far more likely to see North Korean on moon before first human lands on Mars.

EDIT:



North Korea may soon test new SLBM and range up to 4000 kilometers is expected.

If that happens to be accurate estimate than solid fuel ICBM is not far off.
« Last Edit: 12/11/2017 02:35 PM by VernierLover »

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: North Korea missiles
« Reply #451 on: 12/11/2017 02:46 PM »
If that happens to be accurate estimate than solid fuel ICBM is not far off.

If they get the SLBM to work, why not just use that as their ground based IRBM/ICBM (I think the range is a little short if the real target is the US main land, but puts all of NK's other classic enemies at risk).

Never understood the separate program philosophy, yes an SLBM will cost more, but more than the development costs of two rocket programs?
If you're happy and you know it,
It's your med's!

Re: North Korea missiles
« Reply #452 on: 12/11/2017 03:02 PM »
If they get the SLBM to work, why not just use that as their ground based IRBM/ICBM (I think the range is a little short if the real target is the US main land, but puts all of NK's other classic enemies at risk).

Never understood the separate program philosophy, yes an SLBM will cost more, but more than the development costs of two rocket programs?
Pukguksong-1 is SLBM, Pukguksong-2 is GLBM of Pukguksong-1 and Pukguksong-3 is direct successor to Pukguksong-1 thus if pattern repeats then Pukguksong-4 could be GLICBM.
*GL as ground launched

That 8-axle TEL and also MEL had containers on them thus it is already in motion.

Added 3 meters would mean its nearly 10.5 meters long so I expect 15-16 meter long ground variant that puts west coast in range.

Offline Silmfeanor

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Re: North Korea missiles
« Reply #453 on: 12/11/2017 03:13 PM »
http://special.tass.ru/politika/2688450
http://www.zarya.info/Diaries/NKorea/Kwangmyongsong4ndot2.php
http://www.northkoreatech.org/2016/03/03/north-koreas-satellite-caught-on-camera/
http://m.yna.co.kr/mob2/en/contents_en.jsp?cid=AEN20170510009000315&site=0400000000&mobile
What problem? It works and spatial resolution is good enough to spot aircraft carrier.
Did you actually read those links, and paid attention to the dates? The source of the released images are unclear; the zarya.info gives no estimates of actual transmissions, or how the height compare to random noise from other satellites, and explicitely has the heading "Is Kwangmyongsong 4 Alive? That is a big question. ". The Tass.ru image merely finds a trackable object in space, and has no indication whether it works, or not. Timer-based solar panel deploy is something different from working ground control and changing orbital inclinations after weeks, months or years - normal lifespan for sats. So i'd be very hesitant to characterize that satellite as working based on the evidence presented. At most, you could conclude it 'worked' for a few days based on the (presumed) solar panel deployment or stabilization system kicking in - changes in orbit which could also be caused by say a pressure vessel failing, or a battery depressurizing. 

Certainly the statement 'they have no trouble' is not supported by that evidence.

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It is far more likely to see North Korean on moon before first human lands on Mars.
I'd like to see your argument for this, but it'd be off-topic. Let me just instead say - I very much doubt that.

Re: North Korea missiles
« Reply #454 on: 12/11/2017 04:44 PM »
Did you actually read those links, and paid attention to the dates? The source of the released images are unclear; the zarya.info gives no estimates of actual transmissions, or how the height compare to random noise from other satellites, and explicitely has the heading "Is Kwangmyongsong 4 Alive? That is a big question. ". The Tass.ru image merely finds a trackable object in space, and has no indication whether it works, or not. Timer-based solar panel deploy is something different from working ground control and changing orbital inclinations after weeks, months or years - normal lifespan for sats. So i'd be very hesitant to characterize that satellite as working based on the evidence presented. At most, you could conclude it 'worked' for a few days based on the (presumed) solar panel deployment or stabilization system kicking in - changes in orbit which could also be caused by say a pressure vessel failing, or a battery depressurizing. 

Certainly the statement 'they have no trouble' is not supported by that evidence.

Yes, yes, yes... Sure, pretend that I didn't read all of that if that makes you happy and further more ignore statement of Russian official or you didn't ever to bother to use google translate as I did and thankful translation from Russian to Croatian is perfect.

"Equipment on this craft is active/working/turned on. - he added"

Quote
i'd like to see your argument for this, but it'd be off-topic. Let me just instead say - I very much doubt that.
People very much doubted about everything about North Korea with exception anything negative about it without dose of skepticism and those missile failures are primarily for Hwasong-10 submerged closed-cycle gas generator turbopump staged combustion engine which is insanity for North Koreans to try make it work when it was pain in the ass for Russians and west would simply say no to that. That engine is 4D10, overengineered complex engine and to think Hwasong-13 was to have pair of that makes me shiver.

What they learned from that surely was beneficial to engines used in Hwasong 12, 14 and 15 due to remarkable reliability of the engine, they may revisit staged combustion in future.

4D10 is much smaller engine while consumes equally per kilonewton as RD-250 and general rule is the bigger the more efficient it is.

Also as many experts and analysts noted, Hwasong-15's engine has individualy gimballed combustors, North Korea managed to match Russians in terms of having single turbopump feeding two combustor chambers that can move.
« Last Edit: 12/13/2017 01:38 AM by gongora »

Offline K210

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Re: North Korea missiles
« Reply #455 on: 12/13/2017 10:58 AM »
I would not be surprised if north korea soft landed on the moon within the next decade. Now that their missile and nuclear programs are at mature level they can transfer some of the tech and resources back into their space program.

I think 2018 will see some interesting developments in terms of NK's space technology.

Re: North Korea missiles
« Reply #456 on: Today at 11:23 AM »
I would not be surprised if north korea soft landed on the moon within the next decade. Now that their missile and nuclear programs are at mature level they can transfer some of the tech and resources back into their space program.

I think 2018 will see some interesting developments in terms of NK's space technology.
It is possible under very aggressive schedule on the level of Cold War's space race that by end of 2018 they send satellite into GEO/GSO and satellite to orbit moon while aim to soft land by 2020 to place small drone rover and or flag on it.

They almost launched satellite in 1998, Unha 2/3 3 failures until it worked and wish they continued with Paektusan which is far smaller rocket far less resource intensive.

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