Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9 / Dragon 2 : SpX-DM1 : April, 2018 : General Thread  (Read 63711 times)

Offline Chris Bergin

Discussion Thread for SpX-DM1 mission.

NSF Threads for SpX-DM1 : Discussion
NSF Articles for SpX-DM1 :

NET April 2018 on Falcon 9 from LC-39A.



"Oh but Chris this is so far away!"  Heh - it's just going to be THAT historic I want to start a thread for it now, given it's got an official placeholder on the L2 version of the FPIP master schedule. This one is up first, so let's do this thread and go from there. Yes, I know they can slip.....

So, a general thread for discussion and updates (the main threads - and yes a party thread, ugg ;) will be forthcoming nearer the time).

Dragon V2 Articles:
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/?s=Dragon+V2

Article with the dates installed - to start this mission thread
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/03/commercial-crew-demo-missions-dragon-cst-100/

Keep the thread specific to this mission. We have Dragon 2, CCtCAP threads and such in the general sections.



Other SpaceX resources on NASASpaceflight:
   SpaceX News Articles (Recent)
   SpaceX News Articles from 2006 (Including numerous exclusive Elon interviews)
   SpaceX Dragon Articles
   SpaceX Missions Section (with Launch Manifest and info on past and future missions)

   L2 SpaceX Section

Offline NovaSilisko

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Place yer bets, place yet bets - how much slip will this launch see? The prize for an accurate guess is one (1) envelope of premium breathing air!

In all seriousness, I think SpaceX could certainly handle this given date given the launch flow will have matured considerably by the end of 2016, if their performance this year is anything to go by, but I deeply worry about the funding for Commercial Crew... so I'm kinda not expecting this until perhaps spring '17...

Online kdhilliard

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Article with the dates installed - to start this mission thread
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/03/commercial-crew-demo-missions-dragon-cst-100/

You surprised me with your FPIP dates of December 2016 for SpX-DM1 and April 2017 for SpX-DM2.  This is nine and six months to the right of March 2016 and October 2016 from the CCtCap milestone list (and also from the NASA/SpaceX/Boeing presser two months ago, IIRC).  The Boeing dates, on the other hand, are just about what I expected (April 2017 for Boe-OFT and July 2017 for Boe-CFT).

Offline Marslauncher

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So per the article "For Boeing, its CST-100 will first launch on an uncrewed test flight to the Station via the “Boe-OFT” mission in Apr, 2017 – on a 30 days mission, ending with a parachute assisted return. " and then "This would be followed by “SpX-DM2″, a crewed flight, launching in April of 2017, on a 14 day mission. This would mark the first time astronauts have launched from American soil on a US built spacecraft since Atlantis’ STS-135 mission in 2011.

2015-03-05 21_26_40-index.php (850×468)The April target would also overlap with the proposed date SpaceX’s CRS-14/Spx-14 Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) mission"

So that means there would a Dragon 1.0, Dragon 2 AND a CST all at the same time (assuming zero slips)?

Wow if that is the case!

John C

Offline Chris Bergin

So per the article "For Boeing, its CST-100 will first launch on an uncrewed test flight to the Station via the “Boe-OFT” mission in Apr, 2017 – on a 30 days mission, ending with a parachute assisted return. " and then "This would be followed by “SpX-DM2″, a crewed flight, launching in April of 2017, on a 14 day mission. This would mark the first time astronauts have launched from American soil on a US built spacecraft since Atlantis’ STS-135 mission in 2011.

2015-03-05 21_26_40-index.php (850×468)The April target would also overlap with the proposed date SpaceX’s CRS-14/Spx-14 Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) mission"

So that means there would a Dragon 1.0, Dragon 2 AND a CST all at the same time (assuming zero slips)?

Wow if that is the case!

John C

That would be a massive if with it being so far out and I would assume they'd spread it out as things progress. I was thinking a Dragon 1 and 2 being at the ISS at the same time was more on the cards....and went with that.
« Last Edit: 03/06/2015 02:27 AM by Chris Bergin »

Online Comga

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So per the article "For Boeing, its CST-100 will first launch on an uncrewed test flight to the Station via the “Boe-OFT” mission in Apr, 2017 – on a 30 days mission, ending with a parachute assisted return. " and then "This would be followed by “SpX-DM2″, a crewed flight, launching in April of 2017, on a 14 day mission. This would mark the first time astronauts have launched from American soil on a US built spacecraft since Atlantis’ STS-135 mission in 2011.

2015-03-05 21_26_40-index.php (850×468)The April target would also overlap with the proposed date SpaceX’s CRS-14/Spx-14 Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) mission"

So that means there would a Dragon 1.0, Dragon 2 AND a CST all at the same time (assuming zero slips)?

Wow if that is the case!

John C

There was a statement from JSC (can't remember who or when) to the effect that the surest way to avoid visiting vehicle schedule conflicts at the ISS was to schedule them at the same time and wait for differences in their schedule slips.   It was said when early SpaceX and Orbital CRS flights looked like they were scheduled for the same time.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Damn, NASA's budget problems are worse than I thought. I'm going to take a risk with my credibility here but I think that both SpaceX and Boeing would be able to fly their DM1 missions in mid-2016 if NASA were able to fund it.
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Offline cuddihy

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I would rephrase that as "would have been able to fly in 2016 if funded sufficiently last year." That train left the station a while ago.

Offline woods170

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"Oh but Chris this is so far away!" 
I just bet a crate of Hertog Jan's that this thread (or the combination of thread 1, 2, 3, etc. in case of succeeding threads) will be at no less than 30 pages before we hit December 2016, regardless of the launch being in that month, or not.
« Last Edit: 03/06/2015 02:59 PM by woods170 »

Offline sghill

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Oh, can't we start the party thread now just to keep this discussion thread clean for the next two years?

My party thread title suggestion: "The Final Score- Dragon 2: SPX-DM1"
Bring the thunder Elon!

Offline bunker9603

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Oh, can't we start the party thread now just to keep this discussion thread clean for the next two years?

My party thread title suggestion: "The Final Score- Dragon 2: SPX-DM1"

Very clever!

Offline pericynthion

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Is there any info on whether SpaceX plans to fly their own astronauts on any test flights of Dragon 2? (SpX-DM2 or otherwise)

Offline cscott

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Is there any info on whether SpaceX plans to fly their own astronauts on any test flights of Dragon 2? (SpX-DM2 or otherwise)
Last time they were asked (by helodriver at the dragon 2 unveil, if I'm remembering right) they said that NASA has decided that it preferred all-NASA crews on the flights it was paying for.  Might have changed since then, of course, but I think that's the most recent information we have.

Offline Sesquipedalian

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I just bet a crate of Hertog Jan's that this thread (or the combination of thread 1, 2, 3, etc. in case of succeeding threads) will be at no less than 30 pages before we hit December 2016, regardless of the launch being in that month, or not.

Free beer to anyone who has their profile set to display 100 posts per page!

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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I just bet a crate of Hertog Jan's that this thread (or the combination of thread 1, 2, 3, etc. in case of succeeding threads) will be at no less than 30 pages before we hit December 2016, regardless of the launch being in that month, or not.

Free beer to anyone who has their profile set to display 100 posts per page!

I'm sure I'll get deleted, but just checked, and 50 posts per page is the max...

As for On Topic... It looks to me that SpaceX has the inside track and if they had the "permissions" they could be a few months left of the line if allowed, but the idea is to not embarrass Boeing and NASA... but we'll see... but that business of "no manned flights on Gov't dollars without NASA astros" seems to be a dead give away... that's under two years... now is it realistic for SpaceX to be able to put men into Space by mid to late 2016... let the pages roll by...
« Last Edit: 03/06/2015 07:01 PM by cro-magnon gramps »
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Offline rcoppola

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For this un-crewed DM1 mission, when D2 "Docks" with the ISS, what do we suppose the protocols will be?

Meaning, what are the opportunities/procedures from the ISS side needed to implement some ops planning wrt interfacing with D2. They must be thinking this through considering how exacting their planning is with everything the ISS interfaces with.

Will SpaceX have "spacesuit-wearing-dummies" on board with limited cargo in their appropriate places for testing and simulation purposes? I know it sounds more mundane then all the other exciting things this mission will need to accomplish but I find these other details from the ISS crew perspective fascinating as well.
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Offline swervin

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For this un-crewed DM1 mission, when D2 "Docks" with the ISS, what do we suppose the protocols will be?

Meaning, what are the opportunities/procedures from the ISS side needed to implement some ops planning wrt interfacing with D2. They must be thinking this through considering how exacting their planning is with everything the ISS interfaces with.

Will SpaceX have "spacesuit-wearing-dummies" on board with limited cargo in their appropriate places for testing and simulation purposes? I know it sounds more mundane then all the other exciting things this mission will need to accomplish but I find these other details from the ISS crew perspective fascinating as well.

Lets make sure we see the tree's through the forest, here. There are many milestones to accomplish before this mission ever occurs. One of the near-rocks is the delivery of IDA-1 and IDA-2 (both on upcoming SpX/CRS flights). As these types of milestones start to get checked off the to-do list, excitement will build. Big picture, what are the major milestones (flight hardware wise, not overlooking the PDR's and such) that need to be successful for this date to be anywhere near realistic?

-Pad Abort
-In-flt Abort
-IDA's
...?

Cheers,
Splinter

Offline rcoppola

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For this un-crewed DM1 mission, when D2 "Docks" with the ISS, what do we suppose the protocols will be?

Meaning, what are the opportunities/procedures from the ISS side needed to implement some ops planning wrt interfacing with D2. They must be thinking this through considering how exacting their planning is with everything the ISS interfaces with.

Will SpaceX have "spacesuit-wearing-dummies" on board with limited cargo in their appropriate places for testing and simulation purposes? I know it sounds more mundane then all the other exciting things this mission will need to accomplish but I find these other details from the ISS crew perspective fascinating as well.

Lets make sure we see the tree's through the forest, here. There are many milestones to accomplish before this mission ever occurs. One of the near-rocks is the delivery of IDA-1 and IDA-2 (both on upcoming SpX/CRS flights). As these types of milestones start to get checked off the to-do list, excitement will build. Big picture, what are the major milestones (flight hardware wise, not overlooking the PDR's and such) that need to be successful for this date to be anywhere near realistic?

-Pad Abort
-In-flt Abort
-IDA's
...?

Cheers,
Splinter
Let's make sure nothing of the sort. Because there are and will be many threads for all the things you mentioned. This thread is specific to the actual DM1 mission, which is why I posted the questions I did.
« Last Edit: 03/06/2015 08:06 PM by rcoppola »
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Offline woods170

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"Oh but Chris this is so far away!" 
I just bet a crate of Hertog Jan's that this thread (or the combination of thread 1, 2, 3, etc. in case of succeeding threads) will be at no less than 30 pages before we hit December 2016, regardless of the launch being in that month, or not.

I will note that this bet is a calculated one:
First of all: SpaceX is always (much) late in meeting it's biggest milestones (so is Boeing by the way...). The resulting lack of news over prolonged periods of time will lead to plenty of speculation (as with all SpaceX threads) and thus a nicely increasing post-count (and associated page-count)
Second: Like gramps I had checked: the max post-count per page is 50, making for a meager 1500 posts until I can collect my beer. The character I made the bet with didn't check. Too bad for him.
Btw: that 1500 posts in 21 months translates into less than 3 posts per day, on average. Easily done on a SpaceX thread.

Back on topic: it seems that NASA (and industry) learned an important lesson from STS-1. First Orion goes up unmanned (twice no less with EFT-1 and EM-1) and now the first flights of Dragon 2 and CST-100 will be unmanned as well.
« Last Edit: 03/06/2015 08:11 PM by woods170 »

Offline AJW

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Careful there... If the best this thread has to offer is bets for beer, Chris may reconsider his decision to start this thread and he could lock it for the next 18 months.

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