Author Topic: CST-100 on Falcon 9  (Read 18253 times)

Offline Ike17055

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CST-100 on Falcon 9
« on: 11/07/2014 07:02 AM »
We know that Boeing has indicated interest in the past about prospects for launching on Falcon 9. Its officials have stated numerous times that the company considers Atlas V to be its "test vehicle configuration" and have referenced planned discussions with SpaceX over possible use of Falcon 9.  However, Little has been said about this for some time. With the selection of both SpaceX and Boeing, does this prospect have more or less possibility? First things first, given that the Boeing stack now includes the double Strap-on configuration, as opposed to original plans for a single strap-on, what does this say about the weight of CST-100? Is Falcon 9 capable of lifting the Boeing capsule?  And are there other viable launcher options for Boeing that could allow it to eventually lower its launch costs via a different booster than Atlas V?

Also, There is an existing rendering floating around of the Boeing capsule on F9 original version, not the 9.1.1, and it appears to just be a rather odd bird that reminds one if the original version of Orion on the tiny Ares1, prior to rescaling the Ares to five segment. It just looks implausible in the diagrams. Has anyone seen a diagram of CST-100 (and for  pete's sake, can they give this thing a real name?) projected onto either F9.1.1 or F9 Heavy?

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: CST-100 on Falcon 9
« Reply #1 on: 11/07/2014 10:29 AM »
I think the CST 100 fly on Atlas until the BE4 LV is ready, which should be a lot less expensive.

Offline Beittil

Re: CST-100 on Falcon 9
« Reply #2 on: 11/07/2014 12:11 PM »
The only downside at the moment (with both Boeing and SpaceX having won CCtCap) is that if you put CST-100 on a Falcon 9 it means 2 grounded vehicles should something happen to a Falcon 9 launch.

Online MarekCyzio

Re: CST-100 on Falcon 9
« Reply #3 on: 11/07/2014 01:49 PM »
SpaceX would have to create a "universal" tower to handle astronaut entry/exit from Dragon V2 and CST-100. Hatches are in different locations.

Offline guckyfan

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Re: CST-100 on Falcon 9
« Reply #4 on: 11/09/2014 08:58 AM »
The only downside at the moment (with both Boeing and SpaceX having won CCtCap) is that if you put CST-100 on a Falcon 9 it means 2 grounded vehicles should something happen to a Falcon 9 launch.

They could have a Atlas V on standby for that contingency. But that may not be economical with only one flight each per year for two suppliers.

Offline su27k

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Re: CST-100 on Falcon 9
« Reply #5 on: 11/09/2014 03:22 PM »
We know that Boeing has indicated interest in the past about prospects for launching on Falcon 9. Its officials have stated numerous times that the company considers Atlas V to be its "test vehicle configuration" and have referenced planned discussions with SpaceX over possible use of Falcon 9. 

Personally I think that's just Boeing being polite, in reality hell would freeze over before they launch CST-100 on F9.

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: CST-100 on Falcon 9
« Reply #6 on: 11/09/2014 04:02 PM »
We know that Boeing has indicated interest in the past about prospects for launching on Falcon 9. Its officials have stated numerous times that the company considers Atlas V to be its "test vehicle configuration" and have referenced planned discussions with SpaceX over possible use of Falcon 9. 

Personally I think that's just Boeing being polite, in reality hell would freeze over before they launch CST-100 on F9.

That may be true but transferring to a F9 can be used as by Boeing as a threat whilst negotiating the Atlas 5 launch price with ULA.

Offline newpylong

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Re: CST-100 on Falcon 9
« Reply #7 on: 11/10/2014 03:31 PM »
Not gonna happen, get over it.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: CST-100 on Falcon 9
« Reply #8 on: 11/10/2014 04:08 PM »
Not gonna happen, get over it.
Not if the profit margin for Boeing is much higher with Falcon 9. After all this is suppose to be a fixed cost contract for crewed vehicle flights. So it doesn't matter which launcher Boeing uses, they still get same amount of money from NASA. We shall see if Boeing attempt squeeze as much profit out of the contract as possible.

Offline Roy_H

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Re: CST-100 on Falcon 9
« Reply #9 on: 11/10/2014 04:21 PM »
Not gonna happen, get over it.
Not if the profit margin for Boeing is much higher with Falcon 9. After all this is suppose to be a fixed cost contract for crewed vehicle flights. So it doesn't matter which launcher Boeing uses, they still get same amount of money from NASA. We shall see if Boeing attempt squeeze as much profit out of the contract as possible.

NASA wants different launchers to provide back-up in case one launcher suffers an anomaly and is out of service for a while. They are willing to pay extra for that reason.

However it is perfectly reasonable for non-NASA customers to choose Boeing CST-100 over Dragon if they want and send it up on the Falcon. Or even NASA if the purpose is other than servicing the ISS.

I agree with the "Not going to happen" in terms of ISS contract.
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Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: CST-100 on Falcon 9
« Reply #10 on: 11/10/2014 04:31 PM »
It will fly on Atlas and/or delta if need be. It will never fly on Falcon 9. Ever.

I could say "oh its this thread again" considering how many times I have seen this thread re-posted in the last 9 months but I won't. Doesn't matter how many times people bring this up it will not happen. The most direct competitor to SpaceX is not going to fly on SpaceX.
« Last Edit: 11/10/2014 04:32 PM by FinalFrontier »
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Offline newpylong

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Re: CST-100 on Falcon 9
« Reply #11 on: 11/10/2014 05:12 PM »
Not gonna happen, get over it.
Not if the profit margin for Boeing is much higher with Falcon 9. After all this is suppose to be a fixed cost contract for crewed vehicle flights. So it doesn't matter which launcher Boeing uses, they still get same amount of money from NASA. We shall see if Boeing attempt squeeze as much profit out of the contract as possible.

Commercial Crew is not like Cargo where NASA for the most part had no say in launch vehicle. Boeing would have to go through the entire process and certification path again, it would basically render the current proposal moot. NASA would not select two spacecraft on the same launch vehicle. Not gonna happen.
« Last Edit: 11/10/2014 05:22 PM by newpylong »

Offline RanulfC

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Re: CST-100 on Falcon 9
« Reply #12 on: 11/11/2014 01:21 AM »
When did Boeing ever actually indicate "interest" in launching on an F9? As far as I can recall the F9 fell in with a statement of "The CST can be launched on a number of existing launch vehicles" and that was about it. Boeing has never discussed it with SpaceX and the only launcher that's been "spec'd" at all was/is the Atlas-V....

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Offline Misha Vargas

Re: CST-100 on Falcon 9
« Reply #13 on: 11/11/2014 03:59 AM »
When did Boeing ever actually indicate "interest" in launching on an F9? As far as I can recall the F9 fell in with a statement of "The CST can be launched on a number of existing launch vehicles" and that was about it. Boeing has never discussed it with SpaceX and the only launcher that's been "spec'd" at all was/is the Atlas-V....

Randy

I've got an article in Aviation Week that was posted by docmordrid in the CST-100 thread a year and a chunk ago. Here.

And here's the quote in Aviation Week of Mr. John Mulholland, vice president and program manager for Commercial Programs:

Quote from: John Mulholland
It's got to be compatible with others and we continue to have discussions with SpaceX because once the Falcon 9 has enough flights under its belt and is safe enough to fly crew, we feel we can make that business decision. We'll be going over [to SpaceX] soon to see what it will take to make sure our new vehicle is compatible with the Falcon 9. If the price point stays extremely attractive then that is the smart thing to do.
« Last Edit: 11/11/2014 04:40 AM by Misha Vargas »

Offline Lars-J

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Re: CST-100 on Falcon 9
« Reply #14 on: 11/11/2014 04:07 AM »
When did Boeing ever actually indicate "interest" in launching on an F9? As far as I can recall the F9 fell in with a statement of "The CST can be launched on a number of existing launch vehicles" and that was about it. Boeing has never discussed it with SpaceX and the only launcher that's been "spec'd" at all was/is the Atlas-V....

Randy

They did publish pictures of CST-100 attached to an F9. This was from Boeing. So this is more than "we can use any launcher".

The picture below is a composite by someone, but I believe the source images for all three configurations came from Boeing.
« Last Edit: 11/11/2014 04:10 AM by Lars-J »

Offline llanitedave

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Re: CST-100 on Falcon 9
« Reply #15 on: 11/11/2014 04:54 AM »
The Falcon 9 shown looks like the old 1.0 model, so it doesn't seem to reflect any recent movement.
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Offline Lars-J

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Re: CST-100 on Falcon 9
« Reply #16 on: 11/11/2014 07:09 AM »
The Falcon 9 shown looks like the old 1.0 model, so it doesn't seem to reflect any recent movement.

Right, that's pretty clear. Atlas V was their preferred option from the beginning. But they did air the possibility.
« Last Edit: 11/11/2014 07:09 AM by Lars-J »

Offline guckyfan

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Re: CST-100 on Falcon 9
« Reply #17 on: 11/11/2014 07:33 AM »
The Falcon 9 shown looks like the old 1.0 model, so it doesn't seem to reflect any recent movement.

Right, that's pretty clear. Atlas V was their preferred option from the beginning. But they did air the possibility.

To be in the race they need to propose a full set of capabilities, the CST-100 and a manrated launch vehicle. That is what they offered for CCtCap and what they will fly for those missions. Once they have done so, they could well offer flights on Falcon 9, but in case Falcon 9 stands down can switch to Atlas V at increased price. Very feasible if they can assure the switch to happen within 6 months.


Offline LouScheffer

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Re: CST-100 on Falcon 9
« Reply #18 on: 11/11/2014 07:47 PM »
We know that Boeing has indicated interest in the past about prospects for launching on Falcon 9. Its officials have stated numerous times that the company considers Atlas V to be its "test vehicle configuration" and have referenced planned discussions with SpaceX over possible use of Falcon 9. 

Personally I think that's just Boeing being polite, in reality hell would freeze over before they launch CST-100 on F9.
I think you've mistakenly assigned to a corporation the soft, squishy, and weak attribute of loyalty.  In reality, companies would gladly sell their grandmother for a 1% increase in the bottom line.  If, in some hypothetical example, SpaceX said "We are so confident that reusability will work that we'll sell you a dozen launches for $30M each", then by accepting Boeing would add an entire quarter of corporate profit to its bottom line.   Hell would freeze over so fast the devil would be lucky to avoid frostbite.

Offline te_atl

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Re: CST-100 on Falcon 9
« Reply #19 on: 11/12/2014 08:32 PM »
It will fly on Atlas and/or delta if need be. It will never fly on Falcon 9. Ever.

I could say "oh its this thread again" considering how many times I have seen this thread re-posted in the last 9 months but I won't. Doesn't matter how many times people bring this up it will not happen. The most direct competitor to SpaceX is not going to fly on SpaceX.

You mean like Orbital (the most direct competitor to SpaceX) possibly considering flying Cygnus on SpaceX? 

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