Author Topic: MISSION FAILURE: Progress M-27M launch Soyuz-2-1A - April 28, 2015  (Read 344325 times)

Offline jcm

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2:04 UTC for the demise of Progress M-27M - very close to the center of the NORAD prediction window. Over the South Pacific.

http://www.federalspace.ru/21474/

Farewell Progress M-27M.

I don't think the Russians have real time tracking data to confirm this since it would be out of ground station range & it's only half an orbit since then. Maybe that's only the "nominal" decay time...

Good note. Added that caveat to the updated article.

Yes. I can't remember chapter and verse but I have a memory that previous uncontrolled reentries of Russian
spacecraft have involved Roscosmos quoting predicted reentry times without error bars as if they were observed data.
So I am suspicious. I'm not generally in the camp of "I don't believe it until the Americans say it" but in this specific case I'd like to see a NORAD decay messagen and a TIP message with a 1 minute error window, which I expect we'll get tomorrow sometime.
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Online Chris Bergin

Much appreciated Jonathan - and doubly useful because the article links to this update thread, so these threads are extensions of the articles.

So let's all keep an eye on the follow up information from these official sources.

Offline HarrisPeters

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But they report that reentry was over the Pacific Ocean, so what was filmed over Buenos Aires?

That was the previous orbit.

Offline JimO

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2:04 UTC for the demise of Progress M-27M - very close to the center of the NORAD prediction window. Over the South Pacific.

I concur with penguin. 

Keep in mind that Russia has no space tracking capability in that region, in the past they have announced calculated 'cessation of existence' based purely on last predicted track. AND the point they give is only the beginning of the post-entry breakup scatter that can drop pieces 1000 - 1500 kilometers further down track.

I have yet to see any Russian initial claim of reentry that was worth the photons it was screen-displayed on.

Wherever it comes in, I have recently become satisfied that the tank structure and likely temperature of the remaining propellants are consistent with a good expectation of total fragmentation and dispersal.
« Last Edit: 05/08/2015 03:17 AM by JimO »

Offline asmi

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I have yet to see any Russian initial claim of reentry that was worth the photons it was screen-displayed on.
How about...you know... 148 Progresses that went down before? It's ironic that the spacecraft went down in the region where it was meant to go at the end of the mission.
It's also interesting that onboard batteries were still alive all the way to the end (according to Alex Moskalenko).
« Last Edit: 05/08/2015 04:20 AM by asmi »

Online Galactic Penguin SST

NORAD has just issued a new decay prediction at 03:52 UTC, giving the decay time as 02:20 UTC +-1 min at 51 S 87 W, about 1000 km west of the southern tip of South America.
Chinese spaceflight is a cosmic riddle wrapped in a galactic mystery inside an orbital enigma... - (not) Winston Churchill

Offline asmi

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Will there be any information on what would have happened if this had been a crewed Soyuz?
If the crew wouldn't be able to regain control of the spacecraft, they would likely be dead. Onboard consumables will last for 5.2 days (according to info here), while this spacecraft flew for 11 days.
I wonder if this accident will lead to increasing amount of onboard consumables for Soyuz missions (even if it would reduce payload capacity - better safe than sorry).
« Last Edit: 05/08/2015 04:28 AM by asmi »

Offline jcm

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NORAD has just issued a new decay prediction at 03:52 UTC, giving the decay time as 02:20 UTC +-1 min at 51 S 87 W, about 1000 km west of the southern tip of South America.

Many of us suspect that these +-1 min TIP messages, which only come for some satellites, are based on high altitude infrared early warning sat data. In any case I think this report is reliable

And now we got the decay message too.
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Offline input~2

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NORAD has just issued a new decay prediction at 03:52 UTC, giving the decay time as 02:20 UTC +-1 min at 51 S 87 W, about 1000 km west of the southern tip of South America.
That's not a prediction but an estimate since the message was published after the reentry epoch.
The decay time was 0220UTC +/- 30 seconds

Offline Targeteer

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NORAD has just issued a new decay prediction at 03:52 UTC, giving the decay time as 02:20 UTC +-1 min at 51 S 87 W, about 1000 km west of the southern tip of South America.

Many of us suspect that these +-1 min TIP messages, which only come for some satellites, are based on high altitude infrared early warning sat data. In any case I think this report is reliable

And now we got the decay message too.

You mean the satellites being discussed and depicted here ?  :) https://www.facebook.com/BuckleyAirForceBase/videos/902097593144423/  Downloaded and linked in case you can't see it. 

http://www.buckley.af.mil/units/460thspacewing.asp 

"The mission of the 460th Space Wing is to deliver global infrared surveillance, tracking and missile warning for theater and homeland defense and provide combatant commanders with expeditionary warrior Airmen.

The 460th Operations Group provides missile warning, missile defense, technical intelligence, satellite command and control, battlespace characterization and robust communications. The group's team of space professionals operates the Defense Support Program satellite, which provides continuous global surveillance, tracking and targeting."
« Last Edit: 05/08/2015 05:04 AM by Targeteer »
Best quote heard during an inspection, "I was unaware that I was the only one who was aware."

Offline input~2

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IMHO the NORAD prediction "window"has to be divided by 2 to get the uncertainty around the central decay time; for example the prediction at 2326UTC indicated a decay time of 0152UTC with a window of 180 minutes, it can't be 0152 UTC +/-180 minutes (which would include the time of prediction), it has to be 0152 UTC +/- 90 minutes

Offline jcm

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IMHO the NORAD prediction "window"has to be divided by 2 to get the uncertainty around the central decay time; for example the prediction at 2326UTC indicated a decay time of 0152UTC with a window of 180 minutes, it can't be 0152 UTC +/-180 minutes (which would include the time of prediction), it has to be 0152 UTC +/- 90 minutes

I questioned space-track admins a few months ago about this exact point and they disagree, stating that it's +/- window, not +/-  0.5*window
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Offline jcm

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Spooky that so many reentries are over the S Pacific.  Progress reentered within 1 degree in lat and lon of
the third stage reentry a week ago. Clearly satellites passing over that particular point of the deep ocean are liable
to hear the call of Cthulhu and be dragged down by eldritch tentacles of force.

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Offline AirmanPika

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Spooky that so many reentries are over the S Pacific.  Progress reentered within 1 degree in lat and lon of
the third stage reentry a week ago. Clearly satellites passing over that particular point of the deep ocean are liable
to hear the call of Cthulhu and be dragged down by eldritch tentacles of force.

If you are gonna go that route then I have to defend Progress 27 and counter with this

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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So, has vehicle re-entry been confirmed yet?

I'm quite prepared to wait until the next com pass over Russia for confirmation as it is quite possibly that this is the first time that Roscosmos will be able to confirm that the vehicle is no longer in its orbit.

The Pacific and Indian Oceans are vast and it is quite possible that a vehicle re-entry over those areas would never be recorded or confirmed. Ditto with the sparsely-inhabited interiors of Asia and South America.
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Offline Bob Shaw

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Spooky that so many reentries are over the S Pacific.  Progress reentered within 1 degree in lat and lon of
the third stage reentry a week ago. Clearly satellites passing over that particular point of the deep ocean are liable
to hear the call of Cthulhu and be dragged down by eldritch tentacles of force.



This makes perfect sense.

I, for one, wish to be among the first to welcome the return of our old masters.



Offline hrissan

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Will there be any information on what would have happened if this had been a crewed Soyuz?
If the crew wouldn't be able to regain control of the spacecraft, they would likely be dead. Onboard consumables will last for 5.2 days (according to info here), while this spacecraft flew for 11 days.
I wonder if this accident will lead to increasing amount of onboard consumables for Soyuz missions (even if it would reduce payload capacity - better safe than sorry).
Rather intricate failure mechanism indeed! Stage overperforms (!) drags spacecraft with it up increasing natural decay time, then kills spacecraft maneuvering system stranding it in orbit...

Time to add kevlar shielding to the Soyuz bottom? :) (Dragon's metal plate in the trunk might have the protective function?)

Offline JimO

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Mostly splashes, but add in the normal downrange scatter for denser, heavier fragments and there ought to have been a few 'thunks' as well -- on Tierra del Fuego.

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Spooky that so many reentries are over the S Pacific.  Progress reentered within 1 degree in lat and lon of
the third stage reentry a week ago. Clearly satellites passing over that particular point of the deep ocean are liable

Perhaps not as surprising as you think. The South Pacific is nearly a full hemisphere of totally unbroken ocean. A spacecraft flying by Earth from a certain angle with the South Pacific turned towards them in daylight might think that Sol-III is a water planet. Statistically, there is just more chance of something (especially something on an ISS-inclination orbit to hit ocean and the South Pacific in particular.
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Offline input~2

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Joint Space Operations Center tracks Progress' reentry into the atmosphere
http://www.vandenberg.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123447520

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