Author Topic: MISSION FAILURE: Progress M-27M launch – Soyuz-2-1A - April 28, 2015  (Read 343394 times)

Offline jfgout

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Buenos Aires, Argentina

Source

This looks like Jupiter with its moons....

Offline Chris Bergin

Yeah, lots of South American reports that can't be verified.

http://mais.uol.com.br/view/1575mnadmj5c/suposta-nave-russa-e-vista-de-sao-jose-do-rio-preto-04024D98366AD8A15326?types=A&


But most seem to be saying they saw the ISS and Progress, so not mistaking the two.

Daniel Fischer ‏@cosmos4u with the find.

Offline jfgout

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After checking on Stellarium, I'm now 99.9% sure that this is actually a picture of Jupiter...
I guess a useful report would include more information like: precise location of where the picture was taken, precise time of when it was taken, ...

jf

Offline Chris Bergin

After checking on Stellarium, I'm now 99.9% sure that this is actually a picture of Jupiter...
I guess a useful report would include more information like: precise location of where the picture was taken, precise time of when it was taken, ...

jf


Good to have people to debunk, as I'm guessing we'll be getting a number of these "is it Progress?" reports over the next hour to so!

Offline jfgout

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Yep, the star on the left side in the picture is Asellus Australis. Position of Galilean moons matches what we see in the full size image, same for a couple of stars visible in the filed of view (62Cnc, 63Cnc, HIP 43957, ...). No doubt possible. Now let's see where this thing will enter the atmosphere!

jf

Offline Satori

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New prediction from NORAD at 2336 UTC
Reentry predicted for May 8 at 0152 UTC
Central point over 37.4°N 169.1°E

Offline Chris Bergin

Can someone put those coordinates into a map and post it as an attachment?

Unless this is correct?

Offline Spacedoc

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This is in the middle of the north Pacific Ocean. I hope it's correct.

Offline Satori

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Unless this is correct?

Yeap, that's it.

Offline drzerg

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is it possible to catch it from ISS? they are very close now.
« Last Edit: 05/08/2015 12:39 AM by drzerg »

Offline Chris Bergin

is it possible to catch it from ISS? they are very close now.

Will have to be from the external cameras as the crew are all tucked up in bed.

Offline Chris Bergin

Progress now passing over north of Japan, into the NORAD prediction region shortly!

Will it hold on to life or plunge.....let's see if one of the official sources is willing to update.

Offline jcm

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This is in the middle of the north Pacific Ocean. I hope it's correct.

Yeah, but remember the uncertainty window is still large. The median point really doesn't mean much.
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http://planet4589.org

Offline kirovoleg

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Just found this video someone from my city filmed, not sure if its real or not so take it with a grain of salt.




Offline kirovoleg

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Seems Aerospace updated the reentry projections:

08 May 2015 02:41 UTC ± 2 hours

Offline Chris Bergin

Remember, M-27M may have already been lost by now. Absolutely no information from official sources, so we just don't know.

If still fighting, M-27M will be passing almost directly over the Falkland Islands soon!

Offline speedevil

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Posted video has a tumbling object with the right apparent speed, and it appeared to pass Venus at vaguely the right angle. Not sure of timing of video. And no debris/breakup.

It's a pity standard video cameras can't pick up stars.
That could make - with the position known - a really precise orbit determination.

Offline Chris Bergin

2:04 UTC for the demise of Progress M-27M - very close to the center of the NORAD prediction window. Over the South Pacific.

http://www.federalspace.ru/21474/

Farewell Progress M-27M.

Online Galactic Penguin SST

2:04 UTC for the demise of Progress M-27M - very close to the center of the NORAD prediction window. Over the South Pacific.

http://www.federalspace.ru/21474/

Farewell Progress M-27M.

I don't think the Russians have real time tracking data to confirm this since it would be out of ground station range & it's only half an orbit since then. Maybe that's only the "nominal" decay time...
Chinese spaceflight is a cosmic riddle wrapped in a galactic mystery inside an orbital enigma... - (not) Winston Churchill

Offline Chris Bergin

2:04 UTC for the demise of Progress M-27M - very close to the center of the NORAD prediction window. Over the South Pacific.

http://www.federalspace.ru/21474/

Farewell Progress M-27M.

I don't think the Russians have real time tracking data to confirm this since it would be out of ground station range & it's only half an orbit since then. Maybe that's only the "nominal" decay time...

Good note. Added that caveat to the updated article.

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