Author Topic: MISSION FAILURE: Progress M-27M launch Soyuz-2-1A - April 28, 2015  (Read 335104 times)

Offline input~2

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Roskosmos update
Quote

ROSCOSMOS: improve the forecasting of TGK "Progress M-27M" ON 7 MAY 2015 16:30   07/05/2015 17:26   According to specialists Roscosmos, transport cargo ship "Progress M-27M", the launch of which was made April 28, 2015, will cease to exist 8 May 2015 with approximately 01.13 to 04.51 MSK.
  The ship is completely burn up in the atmosphere of the Earth, and only a few small pieces of structural elements could reach the planet's surface - its nature and size similar to the case of regular de-orbiting TGK "Progress M".

Offline JimO

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Interfax May07/1105 gmt: Russian space industry source on delay of Plesetsk military launch: "Before the causes of the failed launch of an analogous vehicle from Baikonur on April 28 have been found out, it has been decided to suspend preparations for launching a Soyuz-2.1a from the northern space pad..."

Interfax May07/1150 gmt: Russian space industry source: "Specialists investigating the causes of the cargo spacecraft's failed launch on April 28 consider it necessary to postpone the next launch of a manned spacecraft to a later date from May 26 to ensure its security. The delay may amount to 1.5-2 months. In this time, another Progress cargo spacecraft should be sent to the ISS....   It has also been proposed that the landing of a Soyuz spacecraft set for May 14 should be postponed as well. This is being done so as not to significantly redo the ISS flight program and ensure the receipt of cargo spacecraft."

Interfax May07/1335 gmt: Russian space industry source: "The incident affecting the third stage occurred five or six seconds before the cargo spacecraft's separation from it, after which telemetry transmission was stopped...  Despite the loss of telemetry, the video surveillance channel remained in operation... It made it possible to see that the spacecraft started spinning with a rotational velocity higher than the acceptable one by an order of magnitude, which immediately destroyed the Progress control system..."

No indication of any propellant usage or leakage by the Progress. It all could still be on board.

Offline input~2

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01.13 to 04.51 MSK corresponds to May 7 2213 UTC to May 8 0151 UTC

Offline input~2

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So the overlap between Roskosmos and NORAD predictions is
May 8 0036 - 0151 UTC

Offline asmi

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Some (unofficial) info on next launches (from NK):
Progress launch - June 30
Soyuz launch July 20ish
Soyuz landing is delayed to June.

Offline ChrisC

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Realtime location:
http://www.heavens-above.com/orbit.aspx?satid=40619
http://www.n2yo.com/progress-cargo-reentry.php
http://www.satview.org/spacejunk.php
http://www.satflare.com/track.asp?q=40619#TOP

Great collection, thanks mcgyver!  Giving it a bump in case anyone missed it.  The N2YO and SatView links are particularly good.  I'll be sharing one of those with my friends via social media in a couple hours as this tightens up.

EDIT:  jgoldader, PahTo, over here!  *waves arms*  :)
« Last Edit: 05/07/2015 08:09 PM by ChrisC »
NASA TV in HD:  history, FAQ and latest status

Offline Chris Bergin

Some (unofficial) info on next launches (from NK):
Progress launch - June 30
Soyuz launch July 20ish
Soyuz landing is delayed to June.

Yeah, we have similar in L2, which is going into the article I'm writing. As you note, not official.

Offline jgoldader

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Does somebody have the software to propagate the orbit to get an idea of the ground track of the final orbit?  Would love to see such a map, thanks!
Recovering astronomer

Offline mcgyver

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Does somebody have the software to propagate the orbit to get an idea of the ground track of the final orbit?  Would love to see such a map, thanks!


Look at post 726 above.
« Last Edit: 05/07/2015 06:05 PM by mcgyver »

Offline Jester

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to keep in mind:

From space-track.org

The latitude and longitude predictions in Tracking and Impact Prediction (TIP) messages identify the location where a reentering object will cross the predicted atmospheric interface location. The latitude and longitude do not predict the location of ground impact."

Offline Chris Bergin

Here's an article for the upcoming demise of Progress M-27M and the evaluations into the near-term schedule.

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/05/progress-m-27m-demise-russia-schedule/

Once the changes are confirmed (or we have a better idea of what the plan is), Mr. ISS will do his thing with an article :)

Offline input~2

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The Aerospace Corp. is now predicting reentry at 0108 UTC +/- 2 hours
Predicted ground tracks at:
http://www.aerospace.org/cords/reentry-predictions/upcoming-reentries-2-2/2015-024a/

Offline input~2

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Another view of predicted ground track during reentry window derived from latest TLE (epoch 1635 UTC)

Offline PahTo

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Forgive me if this has been covered, but has a "compare and contrast" been done between Soyuz 2-1A and Soyuz U?  I suppose more importantly, with Soyuz FG?  In short, what differences are there with the 3rd stage of the 2-1A and U/FG?  Software?  Obviously the engine is the same.  Thanks for the summary article--good stuff.  Oh, and I saw an earlier ground track indicating EI over South America.  With this new "around 01:00 UTC"--where does that put it on the ground track?

Offline Pheogh

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Here's an article for the upcoming demise of Progress M-27M and the evaluations into the near-term schedule.

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/05/progress-m-27m-demise-russia-schedule/

Once the changes are confirmed (or we have a better idea of what the plan is), Mr. ISS will do his thing with an article :)

Will there be any information on what would have happened if this had been a crewed Soyuz?

Offline PahTo

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Whups, posting at the same time--thanks input.
Here's a composite estimated ground track(s)

http://www.n2yo.com/progress-cargo-reentry.php

Offline litton4

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Here's an article for the upcoming demise of Progress M-27M and the evaluations into the near-term schedule.

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/05/progress-m-27m-demise-russia-schedule/

Once the changes are confirmed (or we have a better idea of what the plan is), Mr. ISS will do his thing with an article :)

Will there be any information on what would have happened if this had been a crewed Soyuz?

If it damaged the service module to the extent that they couldn't control the spin and perform a re-entry burn, then not a good outcome.
Dave Condliffe

Offline input~2

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A new prediction from NORAD at 1922 UTC
Reentry predicted for May 8 at 0147 UTC +/- 2h30min
Central point over 46.4N 151.3E
« Last Edit: 05/07/2015 08:26 PM by input~2 »

Offline kirovoleg

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I`ve just watched it pass overhead on Buenos Aires, at first it was quite dim but then it got quite bright for a moment, then dim again and bright. I guess it is still tumbling and that is why it changed intensity.

Predictions so far put reentry between 1 and 2 am UTC

Offline Chris Bergin

I`ve just watched it pass overhead on Buenos Aires, at first it was quite dim but then it got quite bright for a moment, then dim again and bright. I guess it is still tumbling and that is why it changed intensity.

Predictions so far put reentry between 1 and 2 am UTC

Poor Progress. Probably on its last few orbits now.

Thanks for reporting and welcome to the site's forum! :)

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