Author Topic: MISSION FAILURE: Progress M-27M launch Soyuz-2-1A - April 28, 2015  (Read 335612 times)

Offline Danderman

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It is often written that attempts to establish radio contact with the Progress was only when it flew within sight of Russian ground stations. But why ground stations of other countries could not make this, such as the US stations?

Russian ground stations have radio systems and antennas optimized for communication with Progress.

Other ground stations can listen, but cannot communicate with Progress.

Offline jcm

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T.S. Kelso ‏@TSKelso  5m5 minutes ago
Latest Space Track decay prediction is May 8 at 1217 UTC +/-48 hours. That puts prediction time over NE Africa:
This statement doesn't make sense to me - 48 hrs is ~64 orbits - which means it can be anywhere.
Its perigee on each orbit will limit to some degree where reentry can occur

But drag circularizes the orbit.  Apogee is coming down twice as fast as perigee - latest orbit is 158 x 184 km.
So on the last orbit there may not be a well defined perigee location
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Offline input~2

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Latest Space Track decay prediction (dated May 7 at 0310 UTC) is May 8 at 0332 UTC with a "window" of 1080 minutes (18 hours).
AFAIU this means a decay possible from May 7 at 1832 UTC to May 8 at 1210 UTC

Offline Chris Bergin

Latest Space Track decay prediction (dated May 7 at 0310 UTC) is May 8 at 0332 UTC with a "window" of 1080 minutes (18 hours).
AFAIU this means a decay possible from May 7 at 1832 UTC to May 8 at 1210 UTC

So we all need to keep a close eye on this now, with the window of return beginning in just eight hours.

Online Ben the Space Brit

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Latest Space Track decay prediction (dated May 7 at 0310 UTC) is May 8 at 0332 UTC with a "window" of 1080 minutes (18 hours).
AFAIU this means a decay possible from May 7 at 1832 UTC to May 8 at 1210 UTC

That's still an immense uncertainty window for a prediction only 24 hours in advance. It just shows the sheer complexity of trying to calculate things like this. When a more accurate prediction can be made, I'm assuming that a NTM will be issued?
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Offline litton4

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A couple of predictions here

http://www.satflare.com/track.asp?q=40619,25544#TOP

range from 21:34 UTC on the 7th to 06:10 UTC on 8th (both +- 6 hours)
Dave Condliffe

Offline Jester

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http://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2015/05/07/update-on-progress-m-27m-reentry/

As of Thursday morning, 7 May, we are forecasting an uncontrolled reentry by Progress M-27M any time between later in the evening today through to mid-day tomorrow, 8 May.

The current large uncertainty is due to the unpredictability of the drag forces working on the vessel, and is a standard feature of such predictions. Any reports claiming precise re-entry times and locations at this stage are speculative.

Note that the data do appear to indicate that the Progress vessel is experiencing a very fast rotation rate of around one revolution every 1.8 seconds.

Online Ben the Space Brit

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Question: Could the spacecraft literally 'somersault' along the top of the atmosphere, massively off-CoG contacts between the upper atmosphere with the ends of the vehicle accelerating the tumble?
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Offline RotoSequence

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Note that the data do appear to indicate that the Progress vessel is experiencing a very fast rotation rate of around one revolution every 1.8 seconds.

The spin of the Progress spacecraft has been accelerating?

Online Ben the Space Brit

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Note that the data do appear to indicate that the Progress vessel is experiencing a very fast rotation rate of around one revolution every 1.8 seconds.

The spin of the Progress spacecraft has been accelerating?

Please see my post above for my amateur best-guess as to why this could be.
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Offline speedevil

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Note that the data do appear to indicate that the Progress vessel is experiencing a very fast rotation rate of around one revolution every 1.8 seconds.

The spin of the Progress spacecraft has been accelerating?

It's more likely that some observers are simply seeing - due to geometry - more than one flash per rotation.

Offline mcgyver

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« Last Edit: 05/07/2015 10:48 AM by mcgyver »

Offline Jester

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http://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2015/05/07/update-on-progress-m-27m-reentry/

UPDATED 11:30 GMT

ESA Space Debris team reentry predictions now show the reentry window has shrunk to include just the night of Thursday/Friday, 7/8 May; we can exclude any time after early Friday morning. There are some first indications that the likelihood for a reentry over North America or Europe has dropped significantly.

Offline Jester

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http://www.satobs.org/seesat/May-2015/0065.html

"Using the numerical integrator in GMAT 2014a, I found that Cd=2.2 and A/m=0.0037 m^2/kg are sufficient to account for
the decay over the span of USSTRATCOM's TLEs of epoch 15126.77762021 and 15127.44781874.

"Allowing the propagation to continue until decay, results in impact (10 km altitude) on 2015 May 07 near 23:33 UTC. The
uncertainty is 3 h, based on the rule of thumb of 20 percent of the estimated time remaining to decay, measured from the
epoch of the latter of the two TLEs. For both the calibration of A/m and propagation to impact, I used a rough average
of observed and forecast space weather.

I converted the epoch 15126.77762021 TLE for propagation by GMAT using TLE Analyzer 2.12. I configured GMAT to use its
Dormand-Prince 78 numerical integrator, with the EGM-96 gravity model (degree 90, order 90), and the MSISE90 atmosphere
model"
« Last Edit: 05/07/2015 12:57 PM by Jester »

Offline Chris Bergin

Will write an article for this event. Reminder to all we need to return to updates for this one again. If we need a discussion thread, I'll set it up shortly.

Here's the discussion thread:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=37522.0

Please note, it's not a party thread. There's nothing to party about with this event.

Offline input~2

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More precise decay prediction from Space Track (NORAD) dated May 7 at 1304 UTC:Decay expected  May 8 at 0136 UTC +/- 60 minutes (so May 8 from 0036 UTC to 0236 UTC)





Online Ben the Space Brit

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More precise decay prediction from Space Track (NORAD) dated May 7 at 1304 UTC:Decay expected  May 8 at 0136 UTC +/- 60 minutes (so May 8 from 0036 UTC to 0236 UTC)

That's within one orbit. Did the prediction include median point co-ordinates?
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Offline input~2

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More precise decay prediction from Space Track (NORAD) dated May 7 at 1304 UTC:Decay expected  May 8 at 0136 UTC +/- 60 minutes (so May 8 from 0036 UTC to 0236 UTC)

That's within one orbit. Did the prediction include median point co-ordinates?
Yes, median point coordinates: 46.3N 85.7E (North West China)
Here is the corresponding ground track of the potential decay location in the specified window according to latest TLE
« Last Edit: 05/07/2015 02:57 PM by input~2 »

Offline JimO

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Latest Space Track decay prediction (dated May 7 at 0310 UTC) is May 8 at 0332 UTC with a "window" of 1080 minutes (18 hours).
AFAIU this means a decay possible from May 7 at 1832 UTC to May 8 at 1210 UTC

Interfax may07/1011gmt quotes a Russian source: "The spacecraft will cease to exist approximately between 0:45 a.m. and 6:36 a.m. on May 8... Roscosmos will update the information on the time and the expected area of the fall of the Progress M-27M fragments after 5:00 p.m. Moscow time today." 

Offline Chris Bergin

DutchSpacePaul ‏@DutchSpace  14m14 minutes ago
NORAD has updated the re-entry timeline for #ProgressM27M now expected  May 8 at 01:36 UTC +/- 60 minutes

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