Author Topic: MISSION FAILURE: Progress M-27M launch Soyuz-2-1A - April 28, 2015  (Read 336040 times)

Offline catdlr

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HDEV Video: Progress 59 From the ISS

UrtheCast

Published on May 4, 2015
HDEV video of Progress 59. Courtesy of NASA and UrtheCast.


Online Chris Bergin

I wonder if there's any way to enhance that for a closer view? I think - in full screen and full res - you can see reflections from the spin.

Offline catdlr

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I wonder if there's any way to enhance that for a closer view? I think - in full screen and full res - you can see reflections from the spin.

This is the best I can do.  The original was 720P (which I find funny that they would only provide that instead of 1080P).

« Last Edit: 05/05/2015 03:16 AM by catdlr »
Tony De La Rosa

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Latest info from Anatoly Zak http://www.russianspaceweb.com/progress-m27m.html#investigation:

Quote
According to sources at RKTs Progress, telemetry from the spacecraft stopped coming slightly earlier than from the rocket. At the same time, the evidence was increasingly pointing toward an explosion onboard the rocket, which damaged the spacecraft, while some considerable force still propelled both vehicles to different orbits. At the same time, the spacecraft reportedly never fired its engines and all its propellant had remained intact, according to available telemetry. In addition, it takes 30 seconds for the propulsion system onboard the Progress to be pressurized -- clearly not enough to make it operational at the time of the accident. Moreover, an apparent failure of the main computer onboard Progress M-27M blocked dynamic operations onboard the spacecraft.

Investigators also concluded that after the pressurization, the propellant under pressure of around 12 atmospheres was venting from lines punctured by a nearby explosion of the third stage, causing the tumbling of the spacecraft, a source at the mission control in Korolev said.

Online Ben the Space Brit

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It's definitely becoming clearer that this was a failure in the launch vehicle. The question now is whether the failure was in the propulsion hardware or somewhere in the control system. The combination of over-thrust throughout the burn and an explosion towards the end makes me think that the engine is at fault but I'll defer to those with more knowledge.

I have no doubt that the engine manufacturers and control system manufacturers are currently competing over who can denounce the other's shoddy workmanship loudest.
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It's definitely becoming clearer that this was a failure in the launch vehicle. The question now is whether the failure was in the propulsion hardware or somewhere in the control system. The combination of over-thrust throughout the burn and an explosion towards the end makes me think that the engine is at fault but I'll defer to those with more knowledge.

I have no doubt that the engine manufacturers and control system manufacturers are currently competing over who can denounce the other's shoddy workmanship loudest.

There's another possibility that I think is more likely - mis-firing of the spacecraft separation pyrotechnic bolts. IIRC there were similar cases that caused serious damage to satellites (though probably not as dramatic as this one with the spacecraft still attached to the rocket stage).
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Online Chris Bergin

I wonder if there's any way to enhance that for a closer view? I think - in full screen and full res - you can see reflections from the spin.

This is the best I can do.  The original was 720P (which I find funny that they would only provide that instead of 1080P).



Thanks for the effort. Yeah - hard to see....but worth a go!

Offline Lee Jay

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http://www.satobs.org/seesat/May-2015/0042.html

"Allowing the propagation to continue until decay, results in impact (10 km altitude) on 2015 May 08 near 21:03 UTC. The uncertainty is 19 h, based on the rule of thumb of 20 percent of the estimated time remaining to decay, measured from the epoch of the latter of the two TLEs.

The estimated time to decay has been trending earlier each day, mainly due to an increase in the 10.7 cm solar flux."

Posted by Ted Molczan at SeeSat-L.

Offline kevin-rf

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Today's two M1 solar flares won't help. An active sun means earlier decays.
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I wonder if there's any way to enhance that for a closer view? I think - in full screen and full res - you can see reflections from the spin.

This is the best I can do.  The original was 720P (which I find funny that they would only provide that instead of 1080P).


I think it is because the HDEV channel on UStream is limited to 720p, so it is not full HD.
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T.S. Kelso ‏@TSKelso  5m5 minutes ago
Latest Space Track decay prediction is May 8 at 1217 UTC +/-48 hours. That puts prediction time over NE Africa:

Online asmi

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T.S. Kelso ‏@TSKelso  5m5 minutes ago
Latest Space Track decay prediction is May 8 at 1217 UTC +/-48 hours. That puts prediction time over NE Africa:
This statement doesn't make sense to me - 48 hrs is ~64 orbits - which means it can be anywhere.

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Somewhat of a generic question, but I guess particular to this craft.

Over the last several orbits, the difference in period of orbits becomes negligible.
Even if it drops 5km, it's not going to materially change the ground track for the next several orbits.

Going back in time several days, the period can change enough due to drag variance that the whole earth under the inclination is at risk.

How many days out do certain parts of the earth become 'safe', and how does this change with time?
This is a slightly different question from 'where will it hit' which is clearly a much tougher question.

Offline kevin-rf

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Maybe 24 hours before. The sun has been having a hissy fit today, that should increase drag and bring it down sooner... But how soon and how much has the atmosphere puffed up is a good question.

Edit: Since I wrote that the sun has let loose a massive X2.7 flare that should be really pumping up the atmosphere. I think old sol has it in for poor M-27M.
« Last Edit: 05/05/2015 11:37 PM by kevin-rf »
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Offline IanH84

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I forget if I posted it in this thread or elsewhere, but I remember watching the UARS reentry and even with live telemetry and conditions it was hard to pin down exactly when it would reenter. Phil Plait was either live tweeting or blogging it and his call of reentry on the next descending node was 4 or 5 orbits early.

Hopefully the rumors that it's completely out of fuel are true and nothing hazardous makes it to the surface. It would be nice to get a light show as the entire spacecraft burns up on reentry, though.

Online Ben the Space Brit

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T.S. Kelso ‏@TSKelso  5m5 minutes ago
Latest Space Track decay prediction is May 8 at 1217 UTC +/-48 hours. That puts prediction time over NE Africa:

This statement doesn't make sense to me - 48 hrs is ~64 orbits - which means it can be anywhere.

I think that what the contributor is saying is that the error = 0 mark is over NE Africa.
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Offline MaxBioHazard

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It is often written that attempts to establish radio contact with the Progress was only when it flew within sight of Russian ground stations. But why ground stations of other countries could not make this, such as the US stations?
« Last Edit: 05/06/2015 10:17 PM by MaxBioHazard »

Offline JimO

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Latest guesses and guess-based safety assurances:

Debris of defunct Russian cargo spacecraft pose no threat to populated areas expert

http://tass.ru/en/non-political/793206



Offline Remes

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Latest guesses and guess-based safety assurances:

Debris of defunct Russian cargo spacecraft pose no threat to populated areas expert

http://tass.ru/en/non-political/793206

It is not guess based. From the article:

Quote
"The amount of debris will be too insignificant to feel any fear. The risk they may crash upon a residential area is microscopically small.
Very basic statistics. Ratio between populated area and non populated area. Very common thought throughout all nations. Shuttle disintegrating over US didn't injure anyone. The risks are very small.

Quote
The probability of suffering a road accident on the streets of Moscow is far greater," he said.
That's unfair. This shadows nearly everything. :D

Offline russianhalo117

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T.S. Kelso ‏@TSKelso  5m5 minutes ago
Latest Space Track decay prediction is May 8 at 1217 UTC +/-48 hours. That puts prediction time over NE Africa:
This statement doesn't make sense to me - 48 hrs is ~64 orbits - which means it can be anywhere.
Its perigee on each orbit will limit to some degree where reentry can occur

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